2016 NBA Rookie Season Predictions for Every 1st-Round Pick
The transition from NBA prospect to player is already underway.
There's still a ton of post-draft roster movement on the horizon, with free agency and/or trades ready to reshape the league's landscape. So, it's impossible to tell exactly how these incoming freshmen will fit their new digs.
But there's enough information to make an educated evaluation.
These players left statistical trails and scouting tapes behind them—both of which help assess their NBA readiness. And despite the shifting ahead, there are enough coaching systems and teammates in place to project systematic fits, player roles and floor time.
Based on where these hoopers have been and where our crystal ball says they're going, we've made rookie-year projections for all 30 first-rounders.
30. Golden State Warriors: Damian Jones
1 of 30
Age at Start of 2016-17: 21
Position: C
2015-16 Per-Game Stats (Vanderbilt): 13.9 points, 6.9 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 0.2 steals, 1.6 blocks, 23.4 PER
We can easily draw parallels between Damian Jones and Golden State Warriors restricted free agent Festus Ezeli. Both are athletic, shot-blocking bigs out of Vanderbilt who landed with Dub Nation at the 30th overall pick.
Jones might be a more polished product now than Ezeli was then, but the former won't be rushed into action like the latter was. Ezeli started 41 games as a rookie for a Warriors team that went 23-43 the previous season. Jones might be lucky to play 41 games with Golden State coming off a 73-win campaign and back-to-back NBA Finals appearances.
Jones also recently underwent surgery to repair a torn pectoral muscle, which will at least keep him out of the NBA Summer League. And it's hard to tell where he'll fit on the depth chart. The Dubs have four bigs headed to free agency—Ezeli, Marreese Speights, James Michael McAdoo and Anderson Varejao (plus small-ball 4 Harrison Barnes)—and may need to move Andrew Bogut if Kevin Durant comes on board.
Jones could play his way into the rotation, but it looks like he'll spend his freshman year doing mop-up duty.
2016-17 NBA Stat Prediction: 3.1 points, 2.8 rebounds, 0.3 assists, 0.1 steals, 0.5 blocks
29. San Antonio Spurs: Dejounte Murray
2 of 30
Age at Start of 2016-17: 20
Position: PG
2015-16 Per-Game Stats (Washington): 16.1 points, 6.0 rebounds, 4.4 assists, 1.8 steals, 0.3 blocks, 16.8 PER
The San Antonio Spurs' future brightened when possible lottery pick Dejounte Murray fell into their laps.
The 6'5" guard is a natural scorer with the handles and aggressiveness to consistently get to the basket. He's not a pass-first floor general, but he's a capable playmaker nonetheless. There's both a flashiness and smooth style to his game, and he's an excellent rebounder for his position.
But he's unlikely to change the Spurs' present outlook all that much. His aggressiveness took its toll on shooting percentages (41.6 from the field, 28.8 outside) and turnovers (3.2 per game). His defense and 170-pound frame are both works in progress—San Antonio should, can and will be patient with his development.
"It's unlikely Murray will make any significant contributions as a rookie," wrote ESPN.com's Michael C. Wright. "The Spurs see Murray as a developmental prospect."
If he fills up a stat sheet next season, it will be an NBA Developmental League box score.
2016-17 NBA Stat Prediction: 3.5 points, 1.7 rebounds, 0.9 assists, 0.4 steals, 0.2 blocks
28. Sacramento Kings (via Phoenix Suns): Skal Labissiere
3 of 30
Age at Start of 2016-17: 20
Position: PF
2015-16 Per-Game Stats (Kentucky): 6.6 points, 3.1 rebounds, 0.3 assists, 0.3 steals, 1.6 blocks, 18.5 PER
The longer Skal Labissiere waited in the green room Thursday night, the harder it was to remember he was the second-highest-ranked player in his high school class just one year ago.
Of course, his forgettable one-year stay in Lexington, Kentucky, already buried that memory. This wasn't one of John Calipari's overloaded Kentucky teams, and Labissiere still managed only 15.8 minutes a night. He's supposed to have the unicorn skill set of shot blocking and three-point shooting, but nothing about his stat sheet screams—or even whispers—special.
He needs to add strength and toughness. Both will be tested during practice sessions with the Sacramento Kings, where he'll bang with DeMarcus Cousins, Kosta Koufos, Willie Cauley-Stein and fellow freshman Georgios Papagiannis.
Of course, Labissiere will be competing with those same players for floor time and probably bringing up the rear given how far he'll need to come. He might one day prove his draft-night slide foolish, but it won't happen within the next calendar year.
2016-17 NBA Stat Prediction: 4.4 points, 2.4 rebounds, 0.1 assists, 0.1 steals, 0.7 blocks
27. Toronto Raptors: Pascal Siakam
4 of 30
Age at Start of 2016-17: 22
Position: PF
2015-16 Per-Game Stats (New Mexico State): 20.2 points, 11.6 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 1.0 steals, 2.2 blocks, 31.5 PER
Holy counting categories, Batman! Pascal Siakam tied for the NCAA lead with 27 double-doubles and was the only player to average at least 20 points, 10 rebounds and two blocks.
But those statistics are best served with several grains of salt.
"Siakam put up numbers against one of the worst conferences in college basketball—the WAC ranked 27th out of 32, according to Kenpom.com's ratings," noted Bleacher Report's C.J. Moore.
That's not meant to diminish all of Siakam's accomplishments, but rather to temper the expectations of any Toronto Raptors fans waiting for a repeat of those numbers. He's a hustler at heart, and he accentuates his energy with length (7'3 ¼" wingspan) and mobility, but the Cameroon native was late to the game of basketball.
So despite being 22 years old, both his body and skill level are still developing. Yet, Siakam could be a usable piece for Toronto, especially if Bismack Biyombo departs in free agency. But the Raptors won't earmark minutes; Siakam must earn whatever he gets.
2016-17 NBA Stat Prediction: 3.1 points, 3.1 rebounds, 0.2 assists, 0.3 steals, 1.0 blocks
26. Philadelphia 76ers: Furkan Korkmaz
5 of 30Age at Start of 2016-17: 19
Position: SG
2015-16 Per-Game Stats (Anadolu Efes—Turkey): 4.3 points, 1.2 rebounds, 0.6 assists, 0.2 steals, 0.1 blocks, 11.6 PER
The Philadelphia 76ers had an obvious itch for shooting, and Turkish guard Furkan Korkmaz will almost certainly help scratch it. Eventually.
His skill set is intriguing. He has a sweet outside stroke, creative court vision and owns enough athleticism to win a dunk contest—while dressed as Darth Vader. But he packs just 180 pounds onto his narrow frame and hasn't played a ton against top European competition. Even if he was physically ready to make the NBA jump, his contract situation doesn't appear to be.
"Given his high buyout number, Korkmaz seems likely to return to Anadolu Efes," wrote CSN Philly's Paul Hudrick. "His number is set at $2 million, but NBA teams are allowed to contribute only $650,000 to that buyout. The remainder must be paid by the player."
That shouldn't be a big worry. Korkmaz could use the extra seasoning, and Philly still looks quite a ways off from competing for anything of substance.
2016-17 NBA Stat Prediction: N/A
25. Los Angeles Clippers: Brice Johnson
6 of 30
Age at Start of 2016-17: 22
Position: PF
2015-16 Per-Game Stats (North Carolina): 17.0 points, 10.4 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1.1 steals, 1.5 blocks, 33.0 PER
Brice Johnson was born to play pro ball in Lob City.
The bouncy North Carolina product is a highlight waiting to happen, which makes him a natural in the Los Angeles Clippers frontcourt. And after improving during each of his four seasons in Chapel Hill, he should be ready to make a contribution for a Clippers team that lacks depth.
"We like the fact that he has a chance to help right away," Clippers head coach Doc Rivers said, per ESPN.com's Andrew Han.
Johnson is an active rebounder, speedy rim-runner and explosive finisher around the basket. He needs to bulk up his 209-pound body, but if he can do that in a hurry, he could be the first big off the Clippers' bench. Given DeAndre Jordan's free-throw woes and Blake Griffin's recent injury problems, that's a potentially pivotal role.
2016-17 NBA Stat Prediction: 5.6 points, 4.2 rebounds, 0.9 assists, 0.4 steals, 0.7 blocks
24. Philadelphia 76ers: Timothe Luwawu
7 of 30
Age at Start of 2016-17: 21
Position: SG
2015-16 Per-Game Stats (KK Mega Leks—Serbia): 14.5 points, 4.6 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 1.7 steals, 0.3 blocks, 14.0 PER
Timothe Luwawu could emerge as one of this draft's biggest steals. If he's found a consistent three-point shot—he hit 36 percent last season after connecting on only 29 the year prior—history will view this pick as larcenous.
"Luwawu projects as one of the best two-way wing players in a draft class lacking somewhat in that department," wrote Jeremy Woo of Sports Illustrated. "Scouts compare his build and bounciness to a young Paul George or Jimmy Butler. He's a capable playmaker, has improved as an outside shooter and plays above the rim."
Luwawu boasts spring-loaded athleticism, good size (6'7" with a 6'11" wingspan) and unfair fluidity. He's rich with potential at both ends of the floor—adding awareness will help bring that to fruition. His decision-making leaves plenty to be desired (40.2 field-goal percentage, 2.9 turnovers per game), but his experience on the ball could make him a high-quality complementary playmaker.
He works best in the open court, and Sixers head coach Brett Brown loves to run-and-gun. Assuming Luwawu comes stateside next season, he'll have the chance to seize a substantial role, and the stats that come along with it.
2016-17 NBA Stat Prediction: 7.3 points, 3.4 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 1.1 steals, 0.2 blocks
23. Boston Celtics: Ante Zizic
8 of 30
Age at Start of 2016-17: 19
Position: C
2015-16 Per-Game Stats (KK Cibona Zagreb—Croatia): 14.4 points, 8.5 rebounds, 0.7 assists, 0.2 steals, 1.3 blocks, 22.5 PER
Croatian center Ante Zizic looks and plays the part of a throwback bruiser.
His 6'11", 254-pound frame rarely strays too far from the basket. He welcomes contact underneath, whether battling for boards or flashing his low-post scoring touch. As a 72.4 percent free-throw shooter, he's not afraid to go to the foul line. He's also mobile and athletic enough to factor in the pick-and-roll game at both ends.
But he'll need more than size and strength to bully NBA defenders. He could get by as a garbage man, but any role beyond that would require polishing multiple areas of his game.
Zizic said he hasn't discussed being stashed overseas with the Boston Celtics, per Mark Murphy of the Boston Herald, but that seems to be the most logical outcome. He needs more developmental time, and the Celtics have to sort through their crowded roster and free agency before knowing where the big guy might fit.
2016-17 NBA Stat Prediction: N/A
22. Sacramento Kings (via Charlotte Hornets): Malachi Richardson
9 of 30
Age at Start of 2016-17: 20
Position: SG
2015-16 Per-Game Stats (Syracuse): 13.4 points, 4.3 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 1.1 steals, 0.3 blocks, 13.8 PER
From a physical standpoint, Malachi Richardson aces the eye test. He has the prototypical height of a shooting guard (6'6"), a small forward's wingspan (7'0") and the body to withstand NBA punishment (200 pounds). He can tally points from beyond the arc, off the dribble or above the rim.
But his game is streaky. His three-ball came and went—he had 15 games with three or more triples and another 15 with one or none. He shot just 37.0 percent from the field and averaged as many turnovers as assists (2.1). What his defense will look like away from Syracuse coach Jim Boeheim's 2-3 zone scheme remains a mystery.
That said, this is the lone Sacramento first-rounder who (sort of) made sense. The Kings needed wing help and three-point shooting. The good version of Richardson addresses both.
Barring an uncharacteristically strong showing in free agency, Sacramento won't have many barriers in front of Richardson. But it's impossible to imagine jumping up a level in competition will solve his struggles with consistency.
2016-17 NBA Stat Prediction: 6.8 points, 2.7 rebounds, 0.9 assists, 0.7 steals, 0.2 blocks
21. Atlanta Hawks: DeAndre' Bembry
10 of 30
Age at Start of 2016-17: 22
Position: SG
2015-16 Per-Game Stats (St. Joseph's): 17.4 points, 7.8 rebounds, 4.5 assists, 1.4 steals, 0.8 blocks, 22.3 PER
DeAndre' Bembry is almost the wing modern NBA teams covet.
He has the size (6'6", 206 lbs) and length (6'9 ¼" wingspan) to seamlessly shift through multiple positions. And, as his overstuffed stat sheet can attest, he contributes in a number of different areas. He can drive to dish or score, dazzle in the open court, control the glass and cycle through defensive assignments.
But there's something missing from his scouting report—a big something for today's wings. He has yet to prove himself as a viable three-point threat. His perimeter percentage dropped during each of his three seasons at St. Joseph's, flat-lining this year at just 26.6.
His passing and hoops smarts both fit the philosophy of Atlanta Hawks coach/president of basketball operations Mike Budenholzer. The Hawks finished sixth in passes per game (324.5) and second in assists (25.6), so Bembry could be a natural fit. But his playing time will hinge on his long-distance shooting and Kent Bazemore's free-agency decision.
2016-17 NBA Stat Prediction: 5.8 points, 3.4 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 0.6 steals, 0.3 blocks
20. Brooklyn Nets (via Indiana Pacers): Caris LeVert
11 of 30
Age at Start of 2016-17: 22
Position: SG
2015-16 Per-Game Stats (Michigan): 16.5 points, 5.3 rebounds, 4.9 assists, 1.0 steals, 0.2 blocks, 28.8 PER
Caris LeVert has the talent of a lottery pick and the injury history of a second-round flier.
He played just 33 games over his final two seasons at Michigan and had three surgeries on his left foot. He donned a walking boot and crutches at the NBA Draft Combine and is unlikely to suit up at summer league. But let's get back to the talent, because there's a ton of it. He's equal parts scorer, sniper and setup artist, and he offers similar versatility at the opposite end.
"At 6'7", 190 pounds with a 6'10" wingspan, LeVert has the ability to guard three positions while possessing the shooting stroke and playmaking ability to fit both backcourt spots in an NBA offense," Jake Fischer wrote for Sports Illustrated. ... "If he can stay on the court, LeVert will be considered the steal of this draft."
There's no way of telling how LeVert's surgically repaired foot will hold up. But there could be a massive role awaiting him on the Brooklyn Nets if it does. New general manager Sean Marks is building from the ground up—the Nets only owned this pick because they traded their second-leading scorer, Thaddeus Young, to the Indiana Pacers—and Brooklyn must cultivate the few young pieces it has.
2016-17 NBA Stat Prediction: 9.7 points, 3.8 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.2 blocks
19. Denver Nuggets: Malik Beasley
12 of 30
Age at Start of 2016-17: 19
Position: SG
2015-16 Per-Game Stats (Florida State): 15.6 points, 5.3 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 0.9 steals, 0.2 blocks, 20.8 PER
Malik Beasley is a different type of three-and-D wing. In his situation, the "D" stands for "dunk."
The one-and-done Florida State product is an explosive athlete and dynamic aerial artist. But it's the "three" part of the equation that surely excites the Denver Nuggets. Beasley drilled 55 threes in 34 games as a Seminole, converting his long-range looks at a 38.7 percent clip. Combine those two assets, and you have a player defenses can neither lose sight of, nor crowd too closely away from the hoop.
But his rookie year will produce more memorable highlights than stats, because he's fighting a number of uphill battles. He's limited defensively by less-than-ideal size (6'4 ½") and length (6'7" wingspan). His talents overlap in several areas with Nuggets sophomore Gary Harris and fellow rookie Jamal Murray, so Beasley's shooting alone won't necessarily get him on the floor. He's also coming off surgery to repair a stress fracture in his right leg.
He's a player worth developing—whether by the Nuggets or a trade partner to be named later—and could be an ignitable scorer down the line. Just don't expect a major impact anytime soon.
2016-17 NBA Stat Prediction: 4.1 points, 2.0 rebounds, 0.9 assists, 0.7 steals, 0.1 blocks
18. Detroit Pistons: Henry Ellenson
13 of 30
Age at Start of 2016-17: 19
Position: PF
2015-16 Per-Game Stats (Marquette): 17.0 points, 9.7 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 0.8 steals, 1.5 blocks, 20.9 PER
Detroit Pistons coach/president Stan Van Gundy didn't invest a lot of scouting time in Henry Ellenson. That had nothing to do with the kid's game and everything to do with the fact SVG didn't envision the Marquette product lasting long enough to nab him. But Van Gundy's brief exposure and Ellenson's rave reviews from Detroit's scouting staff cemented this selection.
"I liked what I saw and have great faith in our staff," Van Gundy said, per Vince Ellis of the Detroit Free Press. "When they have a guy that high, there's no doubt at 18 that you're making the right move. And he's such a great fit for what we need, too."
Ellenson could eventually provide the Pistons with a lot of what they thought they were getting in Donatas Motiejunas, before his acquisition was rescinded for medical reasons. Ellenson can score from inside and out, meaning he could either share the court with Andre Drummond or spell the All-Star center. The Marquette product is a polished scorer in the post, an active rebounder and comfortable shooter out to the mid-range.
But the rookie's learning curve is steep. He's not the fleetest of foot, so he could be a defensive liability. He's also not yet a floor-spacer, having hit just 28.8 percent from outside in college. There's little reason for the Pistons to rush him into action.
2016-17 NBA Stat Prediction: 5.8 points, 4.0 rebounds, 0.3 assists, 0.2 steals, 1.1 blocks
17. Memphis Grizzlies: Wade Baldwin
14 of 30
Age at Start of 2016-17: 20
Position: PG
2015-16 Per-Game Stats (Vanderbilt): 14.1 points, 4.0 rebounds, 5.2 assists, 1.2 steals, 0.3 blocks, 20.7 PER
Wade Baldwin might have attended Nashville's Vanderbilt University, but he looks like he was built in one of Memphis' grit-and-grind factories.
He's a relentless attacker in transition and a suffocating defender. As a 6'4" point guard with a hawkish 6'11 ¼" wingspan, he's what smaller guards see in their nightmares. And as a 42.2 percent three-point marksman with the Commodores, he could be a welcome remedy to the Grizzlies' long-range deficiency.
But his fire can run too hot at times, making his rough stretches agonizing. He'll force the issue, which only exposes his limited ability to create out of isolations.
Still, this is someone Grizzlies fans will love. He should be in line for a productive rookie campaign, though Mike Conley's free-agency decision will determine the degree of productivity. But even if Conley comes back, Baldwin is big enough to play alongside him.
2016-17 NBA Stat Prediction: 8.6 points, 2.9 rebounds, 4.0 assists, 1.0 steals, 0.2 blocks
16. Boston Celtics: Guerschon Yabusele
15 of 30
Age at Start of 2016-17: 20
Position: PF
2015-16 Per-Game Stats (Rouen Metropole—France): 11.5 points, 6.8 rebounds, 1.1 assists, 1.1 steals, 0.4 blocks, 18.9 PER
French forward Guerschon Yabusele is a massive individual, packing 240 pounds onto his 6'8" body. While that still qualifies as undersized (vertically) for the NBA interior, he's not someone who will be tethered to the restricted area.
It's just the opposite, in fact. While he can and does throw his weight around under the rim, he also consistently lights the lamp from range. He shot 42.6 percent outside last season, which would have ranked fifth among qualified NBA shooters.
He has ample room for growth defensively, and his offense isn't guaranteed to hold up against taller, longer defenders. But the Celtics were thinking long term—and long range—with this selection and could see a return on this investment down the line.
"This will be a draft-and-stash pick for the Celtics," wrote ESPN Insider Chad Ford. "But in the long run? I think he'll be in the NBA for quite a few years."
2016-17 NBA Stat Prediction: N/A
15. Denver Nuggets: Juan Hernangomez
16 of 30
Age at Start of 2016-17: 21
Position: PF
2015-16 Per-Game Stats (Movistar Estudiantes—Spain): 9.7 points, 5.7 rebounds, 0.6 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.3 blocks, 16.6 PER
Juan Hernangomez was born to ball. As NBA.com's David Aldridge noted, Hernangomez's parents played basketball professionally, his brother (Willy) was the 35th pick last summer and his sister is an up-and-comer.
It should be no surprise, then, that he feels ready to make the NBA jump.
"Of course I would like to go to the NBA next year," he told Hoops Hype's Jorge Sierra. "If I have the slightest chance of making it happen, I'm going to take that opportunity."
Whether the Denver Nuggets grant him that opportunity is still anyone's guess. The frontcourt is overstuffed, but one trade could change that.
Hernangomez doesn't need the extra time. He's an awkward fit defensively—lacking elite lateral quickness and strength—but another season overseas may do little to change that. Besides, his intelligence, motor, glasswork and pick-and-pop shooting ability can all serve NBA purposes right now, albeit in a minor role.
2016-17 NBA Stat Prediction: 5.5 points, 4.0 rebounds, 0.7 assists, 0.5 steals, 0.4 blocks
14. Chicago Bulls: Denzel Valentine
17 of 30
Age at Start of 2016-17: 22
Position: SF
2015-16 Per-Game Stats (Michigan State): 19.2 points, 7.5 rebounds, 7.8 assists, 1.0 steals, 0.2 blocks, 29.7 PER
Denzel Valentine's scouting report boils down to two words: does everything.
"He has great instincts for the game, a terrific feel," Chicago Bulls general manager Gar Forman said, per K.C. Johnson of the Chicago Tribune. "He passes it on the move and in transition. He can play in pick-and-roll. He's a very good three-point shooter. He had everything we were looking for."
Valentine was a quantity-plus-quality scorer at Michigan State last season, boasting plus shooting marks from the field (46.2 percent), three (44.4) and the foul line (85.3). He won't carry over all those points to the big league, as he's neither particularly quick nor explosive. But few, if any, prospects can match his playmaking.
That should get him an immediate role in the Windy City. Chicago has no obvious replacement for Derrick Rose, and even when that position is filled, Valentine's passing will still be an asset in head coach Fred Hoiberg's free-flowing offense. Not to mention, Valentine's comfort on the ball and shooting threat away from it will help ease the burden on Jimmy Butler (provided he's still around).
Valentine's subpar athleticism will always be a defensive burden, and his best-case scenario probably tops out as a solid starter. But there's little reason to think he'll bust—so long as his knee cooperates.
2016-17 NBA Stat Prediction: 10.6 points, 4.4 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.1 blocks
13. Sacramento Kings (via Phoenix Suns): Georgios Papagiannis
18 of 30
Age at Start of 2016-17: 19
Position: C
2015-16 Per-Game Stats (Panathinaikos—Greece): 5.7 points, 2.6 rebounds, 0.4 assists, 0.2 steals, 0.6 blocks, 22.4 PER
This wasn't the draft's first head-scratcher, but it stands as the biggest one. Literally. Georgios Papagiannis is a 7'2", 240-pound mountain of a man. But, as Matt Kamalsky broke down for Draft Express, he is pretty mobile for a mountain:
"His best asset offensively at this stage is his combination of size and agility. Possessing terrific hands and proving quicker off his feet than one might expect, Papagiannis is an excellent target for drop passes and lobs inside, and a good offensive rebounder when he's competing. ... The young big man finishes very consistently around the basket thanks to his coordination and ability to play effortlessly above the rim.
"
However, does Sacramento really need another interior scorer with so many bigs on the roster? This is the Kings' second straight lottery pick spent on a center—Willie Cauley-Stein was taken sixth last summer—and neither one gives DeMarcus Cousins any breathing room underneath.
Kamalsky's report also includes the troubling three-word phrase: "when he's competing." This is not the only report to question Papagiannis' motor, conditioning and strength. He seems like he could use a draft-and-stash year (or two) abroad—particularly with the logjam in front of him. But Kings general manager Vlade Divac told reporters Papagiannis will be stateside this coming season.
2016-17 NBA Stat Prediction: 3.2 points, 2.5 rebounds, 0.2 assists, 0.1 steals, 0.4 blocks
12. Atlanta Hawks (via Utah Jazz): Taurean Prince
19 of 30
Age at Start of 2016-17: 22
Position: SF
2015-16 Per-Game Stats (Baylor): 15.9 points, 6.1 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 1.3 steals, 0.7 blocks, 20.8 PER
Taurean Prince should look familiar to Atlanta Hawks fans. They may not know much about the player himself, but they're intimately accustomed to the three-and-D style—think DeMarre Carroll and Kent Bazemore—Atlanta's last two starting small forwards. With Carroll having already fled during last summer's free agency and Bazemore perhaps doing the same, Atlanta made a need-based selection.
It's a good-news, bad-news situation. On the positive front, the Hawks nabbed a player who should fit their system smoothly. But they probably reached to make that happen.
Nevertheless, Prince looks like a plug-and-play option. He cleared 36 percent from deep in each of his last three seasons at Baylor. His 6'8" frame and 6'11 ½" wingspan allow him to defend multiple positions. He's not a freak athlete, but he can rock the rim when he finds a lane.
But, like Carroll and Bazemore, Prince can't create much for himself. His ceiling isn't great for a lottery pick, though his lofty basement should garner this rookie a rotation spot.
2016-17 NBA Stat Prediction: 7.6 points, 4.9 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.5 blocks
11. Oklahoma City Thunder (via Orlando Magic): Domantas Sabonis
20 of 30
Age at Start of 2016-17: 20
Position: PF
2015-16 Per-Game Stats (Gonzaga): 17.6 points, 11.8 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 0.6 steals, 0.9 blocks, 29.3 PER
The Oklahoma City Thunder's jaw-dropping trade of Serge Ibaka immediately put Domantas Sabonis in position to pace all lottery picks in team victories. But it also sapped some of his expected rookie production.
Sabonis has a polish to his skills, plus the motor to help maximize them. He's a comfortable back-to-the-basket scorer, rugged rebounder, excellent passer and developing shooter. But he's neither a rim-protector, nor a stretch shooter—he went 5-of-14 from deep over two collegiate seasons—so it could take some time to find a larger role than that of a hustler.
It'll be interesting to see how (and how often) Thunder head coach Billy Donovan decides to utilize Sabonis. There's seemingly a frontcourt-rotation vacancy after Ibaka's departure. However, Steven Adams, Enes Kanter and, if he returns, Kevin Durant, could fill most of that.
Sabonis' passing ability sets him apart from the other bigs, but Donovan may prefer Adams' athleticism and Kanter's perimeter shooting for OKC's screen-setting. Sabonis won't disappoint when he sees the floor; he just may not do it that often.
2016-17 NBA Stat Prediction: 5.8 points, 4.4 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 0.2 steals, 0.5 blocks
10. Milwaukee Bucks: Thon Maker
21 of 30
Age at Start of 2016-17: 19
Position: PF
2015-16 Per-Game Stats (Athlete Institute—Canada): 29.0 points, 14.2 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 1.0 steals, 3.7 blocks
When scouts talk about boom-or-bust prospects, they're referring to Thon Maker.
The Milwaukee Bucks' latest lengthy addition is a mystery man in every sense. He has a superstar's mixtape, but he's unproven against top competition. He has some seriously appealing physical attributes (7'1" frame with a 7'3" wingspan) and a worrisome one (weighing just 216 pounds). He's the first player since 2005 to be drafted in the first round without playing college, international or D-League hoops.
He could be an absurdly skilled 7-footer with handles, three-point range and an intimidating shot-blocking prowess. Or his lack of strength and awareness could force him out of the NBA in a hurry. There's a wide in-between area where he could reside, but good luck finding anyone who knows where that is.
"The concern for anyone is no one has ever seen him play," a scout told ESPN.com's Ohm Youngmisuk. ... "I would say (he's a risk). The less you get to see, the less information you have, the increased risk you feel like there is."
But one thing feels certain with this walking question mark: Answers will be impossible to find next season. Even if the Bucks aren't competing for a playoff spot, they'll bring Maker along at a snail's pace.
2016-17 NBA Stat Prediction: 2.7 points, 2.2 rebounds, 0.4 assists, 0.2 steals, 0.8 blocks
9. Toronto Raptors: Jakob Poeltl
22 of 30
Age at Start of 2016-17: 21
Position: C
2015-16 Per-Game Stats (Utah): 17.2 points, 9.1 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 0.6 steals, 1.6 blocks, 31.1 PER
Fresh off a franchise-record 56-win season and holding a lottery pick gifted to them by the New York Knicks, Toronto could have reached for the stars on a home run hack.
It opted instead for an in-the-park approach with the conservative-but-solid selection of Utah big man Jakob Poeltl. The 7'1" center can be a dominant interior scorer. He's already a safety valve on pick-and-rolls, utilizing both fluid mobility and pillow-soft hands. He can find his own shot in the post, and his improvement at the free-throw line—from 44.4 percent to 69.2—suggests he could grow as a jump-shooter.
He's also an animal on the glass, a savvy team defender and an intimidating shot-blocker. His 239-pound frame must fill out to absorb the NBA's low-block bullying, but he looks like he could carry some extra weight.
He doesn't play the same game as Bismack Biyombo, but the former could fill a similar role if the latter takes more money elsewhere in free agency. However, it won't be easy to play Poeltl alongside Raptors starting center Jonas Valanciunas, and that's what the Raptors needed. The rookie's numbers will reflect that.
2016-17 NBA Stat Prediction: 8.8 points, 5.4 rebounds, 0.4 assists, 0.3 steals, 1.2 blocks
8. Phoenix Suns (via Sacramento Kings): Marquese Chriss
23 of 30
Age at Start of 2016-17: 19
Position: PF
2015-16 Per-Game Stats (Washington): 13.8 points, 5.4 rebounds, 0.8 assists, 0.9 steals, 1.6 blocks, 21.7 PER
Marquese Chriss' rise through the soon-to-be-rookie ranks was electric—even by his ridiculous standards. NBA.com left him off its initial top-30 board in January. Masslive.com later mocked him as high as No. 3, and the Phoenix Suns ultimately snatched him up at No. 8 after a trade with Sacramento.
His athleticism is best described as absurd. He doesn't just block shots, he inhales them. He doesn't just rock rims, he wrecks them.
"I wanted to give him the hardest pass to catch in the NBA, so he can dunk on a guy who jumps just as high as him, such as a (Hassan) Whiteside," Suns head coach and former NBA point guard Earl Watson said, per ArizonaSports.com's Brendan Kennealy. "After he dunked it, bolts and screws fell out of the rim."
Chriss physically impresses without even jumping, sporting a 7' ¼" wingspan on his 6'10", 233-pound frame. And he could be so much more—he can create his own highlight plays off the dribble and splashed 35.0 percent of his threes at Washington.
Admittedly, he's a project. He had 69 turnovers and only 26 assists in 34 collegiate games. He fouled out of nearly half those contests (15). His rebounding marks were painfully low given his explosiveness. But the Suns know all of this, still liked him enough to trade up for him and will give him a long leash as a rookie.
2016-17 NBA Stat Prediction: 10.2 points, 4.1 rebounds, 0.3 assists, 0.5 steals, 1.1 blocks
7. Denver Nuggets: Jamal Murray
24 of 30
Age at Start of 2016-17: 19
Position: PG
2015-16 Per-Game Stats (Kentucky): 20.0 points, 5.2 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 1.0 steals, 0.3 blocks, 22.7 PER
The Denver Nuggets desperately needed to find a knockdown shooter in this class, so they added deadeye Kentucky freshman Jamal Murray. His 113 triples were the second-most ever by an NCAA freshman behind only Stephen Curry.
Just as impressive, Murray matched the two-time MVP's first-year conversion rate at 40.8 percent.
Murray is exactly the type of guard Denver needed to pair with last season's seventh pick, Emmanuel Mudiay (just a 31.9 percent long-range shooter as a rookie). Not only is Murray a lethal catch-and-shoot gunner—an easily translatable skill to the bigs—but he's also a shifty driver and ambidextrous finisher around the rim.
He's big (6'5", 201 lbs) and skilled enough to play either guard position, which will be key in finding consistent minutes in a potentially crowded Nuggets backcourt. He doesn't have great burst, though, so speedy defenders and athletic scorers will both present problems.
But even in a timeshare with Mudiay and Gary Harris, Murray's quick-strike scoring will yield one of 2016-17's better rookie lines.
2016-17 NBA Stat Prediction: 10.4 points, 3.7 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 0.7 steals, 0.2 blocks
6. New Orleans Pelicans: Buddy Hield
25 of 30
Age at Start of 2016-17: 22
Position: SG
2015-16 Per-Game Stats (Oklahoma): 25.0 points, 5.7 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 1.1 steals, 0.5 blocks, 28.2 PER
The New Orleans Pelicans need so much of what Buddy Hield brings. His charismatic personality is the perfect elixir for a franchise that languished instead of launched last season. His NBA-ready, limitless range will be the best relief Anthony Davis has found over four years in the Big Easy.
Hield just put on a Stephen Curry-esque perimeter display this season, burying 147 triples at a staggering 45.7 percent rate. That alone should endear him to his new coach, Alvin Gentry, Curry's former offensive coordinator in Golden State. But combine that stroke with a superb work ethic, above-average physical gifts and the ability to find shots in any situation and you could be talking about a special talent.
"Buddy Hield most reminds me of a 20-year-old Ray Allen," wrote ESPN.com's David Thorpe. ... "No, his stroke is not as pretty as Allen's was, but the results are equally beautiful and deadly."
Hield needs to grow as an inside-the-arc scorer and defender, but he'll be a day-one contributor and quite possibly starter. Assuming Eric Gordon leaves in free agency, the Pelicans should give Hield every opportunity to win an opening gig so they can capitalize on the immediate production offered by a four-year collegiate player.
2016-17 NBA Stat Prediction: 16.1 points, 3.6 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 0.9 steals, 0.3 blocks
5. Minnesota Timberwolves: Kris Dunn
26 of 30
Age at Start of 2016-17: 22
Position: PG
2015-16 Per-Game Stats (Providence): 16.4 points, 5.3 rebounds, 6.2 assists, 2.5 steals, 0.6 blocks, 23.2 PER
Kris Dunn looks like a Tom Thibodeau player. And, yes, the 2016 draft's best guard sees it, too.
"Thibs being the coach and me being a defensive guy, I can't wait to play under him," Dunn told reporters on draft night.
Dunn has the physical makeup to be a defensive menace—a 6'9 ½" wingspan stretching out from his 6'4" frame. With a mental toughness to match, he's yet another potent piece added to the Minnesota Timberwolves defense, which is anchored by Karl-Anthony Towns in the middle and Andrew Wiggins on the wing.
Dunn is an expert table-setter and turbo-button-quick off the dribble. His jump shot is developing, as he made more threes (42) at a higher clip (37.2 percent) as a redshirt junior than his first two seasons combined. And his athleticism makes him a triple-double threat for his rebounding work.
Like a lot of first-year lead guards, he needs to slice down his turnovers (3.5 per game) and improve his shot selection. And his immediate role will be hard to pin down as long as Ricky Rubio is around, though The Vertical's Adrian Wojnarowski says the Wolves have been shopping him. But Dunn is ready to play for any NBA coach—especially this one—and he'll leave an imprint across the box score.
2016-17 NBA Stat Prediction: 12.6 points, 3.6 rebounds, 5.9 assists, 1.5 steals, 0.3 blocks
4. Phoenix Suns: Dragan Bender
27 of 30
Age at Start of 2016-17: 18
Position: PF
2015-16 Per-Game Stats (Maccabi Fox Tel Aviv—Israel): 4.5 points, 2.5 rebounds, 0.7 assists, 0.5 steals, 0.8 blocks, 13.9 PER
It's far easier to figure out what Dragan Bender is not—the next Kristaps Porzingis—than what he is.
Bender is tall (7'1"), long (7'2" wingspan) and rail thin (225 lbs). He's not a freak athlete in an explosive sense, but he's light on his feet, quick to get off them and fluid for his size. He could conceivably suit up at the 3, 4 and 5 spots over his NBA career, while possibly harnessing the uber-rare combination of shooting, playmaking and rim protection.
But it's all a guessing game, because the draft's youngest player (18) needs a lot of work.
"He's at least one or two years away from making a huge impact, and his success depends on his coaches and how they develop him," Bender's European coach and mentor Nikola Vujcic said, per Steven Braid for the Boston Herald. "He's only 18, and people have to realize that."
The Suns aren't in win-now mode, so Phoenix should keep Bender's advancement at a comfortable pace. That won't be difficult with Marquese Chriss, Tyson Chandler and Alex Len in the frontcourt rotation. But that means Bender's rookie season will likely feature flashes of what could be and many reminders of how his game and body need to mature.
2016-17 NBA Stat Prediction: 7.1 points, 5.2 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 0.2 steals, 0.5 blocks
3. Boston Celtics: Jaylen Brown
28 of 30
Age at Start of 2016-17: 20
Position: SF
2015-16 Per-Game Stats (California): 14.6 points, 5.4 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.6 blocks, 17.6 PER
Jaylen Brown opted to start his NBA career without an agent. From the sound of things, he probably doesn't need a publicist, either.
"If you look at the way the league is progressing, look at the best teams in the world—the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Golden State Warriors—a lot of those guys can play multiple positions," Brown said, per Keith Pearson of the Boston Herald. "And a lot of those guys are around the same size as me."
If you're looking at Brown's potential through an optimistic lens, that's precisely where you start. His 6'7", 222-pound build and 6'11 ¾" wingspan mark almost the perfect dimensions for a positionless player. He can handle multiple defensive assignments from opening night. His explosive athleticism will make him a regular on highlight reels and at the charity stripe.
He's a few coats of polish shy of terrifying, but there's no telling when—or if—he'll add them. His shooting is a major concern (he hit just 29.4 percent from distance and 65.4 at the line). He's not yet the rebounder or defender his physical tools say he should be. His lack of awareness and shaky handle limit his ability to create for himself or his teammates.
He's a project pick, but Boston knows that. The Celtics also know they're deep enough to be patient with Brown, and they have one of the league's best young teachers in head coach Brad Stevens. Brown should be a usable rotation piece for now, but opponents will hold his role and stats in check.
2016-17 NBA Stat Prediction: 8.4 points, 4.1 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 0.6 steals, 0.7 blocks
2. Los Angeles Lakers: Brandon Ingram
29 of 30
Age at Start of 2016-17: 19
Position: SF
2015-16 Per-Game Stats (Duke): 17.3 points, 6.8 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 1.1 steals, 1.4 blocks, 22.5 PER
Brandon Ingram is a love-at-first-sight prospect for modern scouts. Sure, he's still not quite 200 pounds soaking wet. But he's a scoring guard in a spindly power forward's body.
"He's what teams are looking for right now," one NBA executive told Sports Illustrated's Luke Winn. "... So until the [NBA] trend shifts to something else, there's not going to be an issue with him fitting in."
Ingram is 6'9" with a 7'3" wingspan and a marble-smooth shooting stroke. He was a 41.0 percent perimeter shooter during his lone season of college ball, bettering the freshman mark of his body double Kevin Durant (40.4). Ingram isn't Durant, but he brings a similar—but lesser—package of effortless perimeter scoring, defensive versatility and innate feel.
Clearly, Ingram needs to get bigger and stronger. He won't reach his defensive potential until he does and could struggle finishing through contact at the rim as a good-not-elite athlete. His handles need tightening before he's consistently cooking defenders in isolations, too.
But his ceiling is as high as any player in this league. His opportunity is also tremendous on a young Lakers team needing leadership and steady scoring. And there's so much to like about his fit with new head coach Luke Walton, who should get the rookie fast-break buckets and open looks out of half-court sets.
2016-17 NBA Stat Prediction: 15.6 points, 5.7 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 0.9 steals, 1.0 blocks
1. Philadelphia 76ers: Ben Simmons
30 of 30
Age at Start of 2016-17: 20
Position: PF
2015-16 Per-Game Stats (LSU): 19.2 points, 11.8 rebounds, 4.8 assists, 2.0 steals, 0.8 blocks, 29.0 PER
Ben Simmons entered this past season as the consensus No. 1 player and finished it as the top overall draft pick. Given the fluidity of mock drafts, it's impressive to make a wire-to-wire run as king of the hoops hill.
Especially since weaknesses surfaced during his one-year stay at LSU. He doesn't have three-point range or much apparent confidence in his jump shot. His motor runs hot and cold, sometimes stalling out completely on the defensive end.
But there's a reason this selection was locked in so far ahead of time. Even if he's been oversold as the next Magic Johnson or LeBron James, Simmons still provides a seldom-seen combination of size and skill. He could very well be a 6'10", 240-pound point guard—or point center.
"I'm the type of player who can be put anywhere on the court and contribute," Simmons told reporters at his introductory press conference. "As a point forward, you can put me at any position from 1 through 5— both offensively and defensively."
Philly will test Simmons' full array of skills in a featured role, since it badly needs a leader to emerge out of its start-from-scratch rebuild. He should be on the ball more than anyone, so he can utilize his handles, deft passing and advanced vision. He'll be a wrecking ball in transition and a constant presence on the glass. He won't be easy to keep away from the rim, especially if he continues developing his post game.
Still, this isn't the best situation in Philly, as the Sixers were squeezed for space before he got there. But they'll work to find more complementary pieces around him. His potential is through the roof, and his floor sits high enough that he'll have the most impressive rookie season on the stat sheet.
2016-17 NBA Stat Prediction: 17.2 points, 6.3 rebounds, 5.7 assists, 1.2 steals, 0.6 blocks
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Sports-Reference.com and RealGM.
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