Could All 3 SEC West Coaches on the Hot Seat Survive 2016?

Remember when Mississippi State head coach Dan Mullen got his raise in February of 2015 that brought him into the $4 million club—an "exclusive" society that included every other coach in the SEC West?

The question was asked throughout the college football world: "Which $4 million man will finish last?"

It was Auburn head coach Gus Malzahn in 2015. That performance landed him squarely on the hot seat along with, as Bleacher Report's Brian Pedersen noted earlier in the offseason, LSU's Les Miles and Texas A&M's Kevin Sumlin—both of whom didn't meet the expectations that their lofty salaries demanded last season either.

So something's gotta give this year, right?

The most likely answer is "yes," but it isn't the only answer.

If Texas A&M and Auburn go 8-4, are competitive in those four losses and make it clear that their offensive issues from 2015 are in the rearview mirror, it's safe to assume that Sumlin and Malzahn, respectively, will likely stick around.

Auburn athletics director Jay Jacobs commented on his primary goal Tuesday at a booster club event, according to Tom Green of AL.com.

"We need stability at Auburn, and so we're counting on him to get it done," he said.

Brynn Anderson/Associated Press

Sumlin is in the same boat, knowing that the floor of the program has been raised.

"That's an expectation that has been created since we've been here, and we don't run from that," he told Sports Illustrated's Pete Thamel. "And that should never change. And to get to that expectation was not easy, but to answer those expectations isn't easy either. So from my standpoint, there's always been a sense of urgency, and that will never change."

Eight wins and a chance for No. 9 in a bowl game should be enough to keep Sumlin and Malzahn around.

For Miles, that won't be good enough based on how some outlets—including ESPN The Magazine—are forecasting the 2016 LSU season.

Those expectations leave Miles a very slim margin for error in 2016. But what if he lives up to that expectation or, at the very least, finishes second in the West and is in the title race through Thanksgiving weekend?

Even though I don't think it'll happen—as explained in Optimistic, Pessimistic and Realistic SEC Predictions—it certainly is a possibility.

Every coach on the hot seat in the SEC West, with the exception of head-to-head-games against two of them, can cool their seats based on differing expectations in 2016 and fixing the problems that ailed them in 2015.

Gerald Herbert/Associated Press

What's more, it's not like other teams in the SEC West are without problems.

Mississippi State is entering the post-Dak Prescott era, has offensive line concerns and has an entirely new defensive staff.

Arkansas has to replace a 1,000-yard running back, a 3,000-yard quarterback, three players off of one of the best offensive lines in the country, one of the best tight ends in the country and fix a secondary that gave up the most passing plays of 20 or more yards in the conference (53), according to CFBStats.com.

Ole Miss has talent, but replacing several superstars from last year's squad and the potential distraction of the NCAA investigation could force the Rebels to take a step back.

It's a reasonable assumption that two or three of the teams mentioned above take steps back, which should elevate the teams with coaches on the hot seat into positions where their jobs won't be called into question.

The last two coaching hires that have been made in the SEC West were in December of 2012, when Malzahn was hired by Auburn and Bret Bielema moved from Wisconsin to Arkansas. The pressure created with big-money contracts suggests that another move being made in the division this offseason is a probability.

But it's far from a certainty. 

"The expectations in the league, especially in the West right now, they're so high," Mullen said at SEC spring meetings earlier this month. "You have seven teams. You have seven student bodies. You have seven administrations. You have seven alumni bases and fanbases that expect to win the West this year.

"Six of them are going to be disappointed."

But the three that were the most disappointed at the end of the 2015 season may not be in the same position after 2016.

Quotes obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted. Statistics courtesy of CFBStats.com unless otherwise noted. Recruiting information courtesy of 247Sports.

Barrett Sallee is the lead SEC college football writer and national college football video analyst for Bleacher Report as well as a host on Bleacher Report Radio on SiriusXM 83. Follow Barrett on Twitter @BarrettSallee.