NBA Free Agents Who Could Sign Under Market Value for a Contender Next Season
Pay cuts and below-market contracts are overrated NBA free-agency talking points.
Just not this summer.
According to USA Today's Jeff Zillgitt, the NBA's salary cap will jump to $92 million this offseason, and that changes things. It doesn't mean every key player will mimic David West, who forfeited more than $10 million to join the San Antonio Spurs in 2015-16. But it does mean players can take "less" without actually taking less.
Certain names might accept contracts that pay them more annually but don't compensate them at their full market value in the new cap climate. Others may take fewer dollars to play for an incumbent or outside contender.
Our focus is on the household talents who might, in one form or another, sign below-market deals by their own volition. They may do so because they're older, fiercely loyal to their current organizations or have an incentive to rank winning and team fit above paychecks.
Though the following players aren't guaranteed to sign discounted contracts, under the right circumstances, it remains a distinct possibility.
Luol Deng
1 of 7
Incumbent Team: Miami Heat
Age at Start of 2016-17: 31
Free-Agency Type: Unrestricted
2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 12.3 points, 6.0 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 1.0 steals, 0.4 blocks, 45.5 percent shooting
2015-16 Salary: $10,151,612
Luol Deng has willingly obliterated his market value in each of the past two summers. He signed at a discount with the Miami Heat in 2014 and then rather unexpectedly opted in for 2015-16 last June, ensuring he would earn less than $20 million total during his stint in Biscayne Bay.
Now seems like a good time for him to cash in on his remaining value. This will presumably be his last long-term deal, and he played a pivotal part in bringing Miami within one win of an Eastern Conference Finals appearance.
Head coach Erik Spoelstra shimmied the 6'9" Deng between the power forward and center spots against the Charlotte Hornets and Toronto Raptors this postseason. He was seldom outmatched on the defensive end and offered plenty of frontcourt spacing, putting down more than 42 percent of his three-pointers.
With small-ball 4s and 5s all the rage in today's shooting-obsessed NBA, Deng won't lack for suitors, and he made the decision to skirt 2015 free agency with the impending salary-cap explosion in mind, according to CBS Sports' Ken Berger. But he doesn't sound like a guy prepping himself for high-end bidding wars.
"A lot of teams out there can offer you a lot of money, but the feel might not be the same," he said, per Jason Lieser of the Palm Beach Post. "And there could be teams in a situation where they can't actually give you what the other team can, but they've got a lot of other things they can support you with."
Though specifically referencing the Heat, Deng's mindset can be applied to his entire free-agency search. He saw his situation with the Chicago Bulls and Cleveland Cavaliers deteriorate quickly and knows the value of competitive stability.
Plus, barring an absurd series of pay cuts, Miami won't have any money to spend if it re-signs both Dwyane Wade and Hassan Whiteside. Deng's next-best option is to find a dependable contender with frontcourt minutes to spare, even if that entails him making right in the ballpark of (or less than) what he did with the Heat.
Pau Gasol
2 of 7
Incumbent Team: Chicago Bulls
Age at Start of 2016-17: 36
Free-Agency Type: Player option
2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 16.5 points, 11.0 rebounds, 4.1 assists, 0.6 steals, 2.0 blocks, 46.9 percent shooting
2015-16 Salary: $7,448,760
Pau Gasol has no obligation to take a pay cut. There will be teams, in fact, that sell him on doing the exact opposite.
"I have to wait for offers," he told Marca (per HoopsHype). "I try to keep an open mind about this. The good thing is this summer, the offers can be very attractive, and there's going to be a lot of teams that can pitch interesting proposals."
These "interesting" offers are the luxury of someone who just finished one of the best individual seasons in NBA history for a player his age. Make that one of the best individual seasons ever, period.
Previously, the 31-year-old Kareem Abdul-Jabbar was the oldest player to average 16 points, 11 rebounds, four assists and two blocks for an entire season. Of course, up until now, he was one of just five players to ever sustain those per-game benchmarks.
So Gasol, at the age of 35, tethered himself to the primes of Abdul-Jabbar, Kevin Garnett, Bob Lanier, Bob McAdoo and Chris Webber. That's not the mark of someone who needs to cap his earning potential for the right to chase rings. He already has two of them, after all.
But he has also now raked in more than $170 million for his NBA career. Money (presumably) isn't something with which he must worry himself. The fact he's earned just one playoff appearance in the last three years—that's the bigger concern.
Dwight Howard
3 of 7
Incumbent Team: Houston Rockets
Age at Start of 2016-17: 30
Free-Agency Type: Player option
2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 13.7 points, 11.8 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 1.0 steals, 1.6 blocks, 62 percent shooting
2015-16 Salary: $22,359,364
Dwight Howard needn't worry about nabbing a huge contract this summer. He is just 30, missed only 11 games this past season and remains one of the game's most effective bigs when placed in the right situation.
Opponents shot under 50 percent at the rim against Howard in 2015-16, a stellar number for someone who faced more than 500 shots around the iron. Plus, he joined Anthony Davis, Derrick Favors, Nerlens Noel and Paul Millsap as the only players to average at least one steal and 1.5 blocks per game.
The Houston Rockets defense wasn't much better with him on the floor, but Defensive Player of the Year Kawhi Leonard himself couldn't have made sense of that mess. And while Howard's offensive numbers plummeted, that decline isn't solely his fault. Houston relied on him too much as a post-up threat, and he notched the second-lowest usage rate of his career.
"I felt like my role was being reduced," he told ESPN.com's Jackie MacMullan. "I went to [Rockets general manager] Daryl [Morey] and said, 'I want to be more involved.' Daryl said, 'No, we don't want you to be.'"
So much for Howard returning to the Rockets, right?
Bigs who shoot under 38 percent outside of five feet from the basket cannot be offensive focal points anymore. But Howard is a devastating pick-and-roll finisher. He shot 63 percent as the roll man this past season and finished in the 71st percentile of points scored per possession.
Some combination of necessity and personal preference should drive him to discounted refuge somewhere (Dallas) he can play a prominent part in the offense (Dallas), have the opportunity to contend now or very soon (Dallas) and be able to hang out with friends (Chandler Parsons...in Dallas).
No team, though, can justifiably foot the bill for a max contract that will pay Howard more than $30 million per year. And even if there is a squad that reckless, his unsavory experience in Houston should be the impetus for him prioritizing fit over finances.
Joakim Noah
4 of 7
Incumbent Team: Chicago Bulls
Age at Start of 2016-17: 31
Free-Agency Type: Unrestricted
2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 4.3 points, 8.8 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 0.6 steals, 1.0 blocks, 38.3 percent shooting
2015-16 Salary: $13,400,000
Joakim Noah's days as an All-Star are over. His time in Chicago may be, too.
As an unidentified Bulls player told Joe Cowley of the Chicago Sun-Times, Noah "has been telling teammates in recent weeks that he was done with the organization once free agency begins and 'has no trust in the front office getting this in the right direction.'" While a source later told ESPN.com's Nick Friedell that Noah and the Bulls were having "positive dialogue," the ponytail-clad center's return is anything but a formality.
Noah will never be a dependable scoring threat outside of 10 feet. His jump shot is ugly, his post-up polish is nonexistent, and he's not the healthiest fellow. He missed most of 2015-16 with shoulder issues and has cleared 70 appearances just once in the last seven years—though he did play in 64 of 66 possible regular-season outings during the 2011-12 lockout campaign.
Still, Noah is a defensive boss. He is pure hustle times infinity and remains one of the league's best passing bigs. Since 2013-14, no other NBA player has matched his combined assist (24.9), steal (1.6) and block percentages (3.1).
Someone with such a specific skill set, however, won't have his choice of suitors. Noah's injuries and age are red flags. There is no guarantee he'll fetch more than last season's $13.4 million salary even if he tries. But with Chicago's title window firmly closed, Noah shouldn't be angling for a return or another situation in which he'll be viewed as a rebuilding cornerstone.
Free agency is a chance for him to find a more established contender and hold on tight, potential raise be damned.
Dirk Nowitzki
5 of 7
Incumbent Team: Dallas Mavericks
Age at Start of 2016-17: 38
Free-Agency Type: Player option
2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 18.3 points, 6.5 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 0.7 steals, 0.7 blocks, 44.8 percent shooting
2015-16 Salary: $8,333,334
Dirk Nowitzki may or may not enter free agency. We're not really sure.
Er, rather, he's not really sure. As he told the Ben & Skin show on KRLD-FM 105.3 The Fan (per the Dallas Morning News):
"Just trying to find out what the best [thing to do] is. Is it best to stay in the contract and play next year and keep the same pay, or should I opt out? Is that best for the franchise? Just trying to find out from Donnie and Mark what's out there, what the plan is. So, 100 percent, my mind's not made up, but I'm leaning toward opting out and trying to help, and see what's out there.
"
This isn't particularly complicated. Either Nowitzki accepts next season's $8.7 million payday to help maintain the Dallas Mavericks' flexibility, in which case he'll be underpaid, or he'll opt out to sign a new deal with Dallas, perhaps a cheaper one, in which case he'll be even more underpaid.
That's Nowitzki for ya. He is not in the business of breaking the bank these days. He has made north of $220 million in NBA coin and cares more about finishing out his career on a contender.
We can sit here and split hairs over how the Mavericks have capitalized on Nowitzki's concessions. Overpaying Chandler Parsons and Wesley Matthews while almost poaching DeAndre Jordan from the Los Angeles Clippers isn't an exemplary use of additional wiggle room. But Dallas' ability—or lack thereof—to actually construct a contender is irrelevant. Nowitzki will sacrifice much of his earning potential in hopes it can build one anyway.
Evan Turner
6 of 7
Incumbent Team: Boston Celtics
Age at Start of 2016-17: 28
Free-Agency Type: Unrestricted
2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 10.5 points, 4.9 rebounds, 4.4 assists, 1.0 steals, 0.3 blocks, 45.6 percent shooting
2015-16 Salary: $3,425,510
Let's make something clear: Evan Turner is in his prime and has every reason to chase that paper.
General managers will be foaming at the mouth for a chance to sign a multipositional wing who can soak up time as a pseudo point guard and doesn't care whether or not he starts. As one league executive put it to CSNNE.com's A. Sherrod Blakely:
"You hear players talk all the time about doing whatever it takes to win, but he's doing it. Start, come off the bench, play a few minutes, play a lot of minutes. He's done everything they've asked him to do and from what I hear, hasn't grumbled a day about it. Every team needs a guy like that in their locker room.
"
It doesn't matter that Turner can't shoot threes. He is as well-rounded as you can be without wielding a long-range jumper. Just two players matched or exceeded his regular-season rebound (9.3), assist (23.9), steal (1.7) and block (1.0) percentages. Their names? Draymond Green and LeBron James.
Don't be surprised when Turner earns max or near-max consideration—Bismack Biyombo money, if you will. But don't be surprised if he leaves green on the table, either. He is open to doing as much for the Boston Celtics, per Blakely.
Yes, it sounds crazy. Turner, the No. 2 overall pick in 2010, is six years into his NBA tenure and has never taken home more than $6.7 million during a single season. Yet this is the first time he's no longer toting the burden of proof. There is no need for him to freely accept less money.
But as a player who never lived up to his potential in Philadelphia or Indiana, Turner knows the importance of finding the right fit. If he has it in Boston, or if he discovers it elsewhere, that may mean more to him than exploiting the full extent of his market value.
Dwyane Wade
7 of 7
Incumbent Team: Miami Heat
Age at Start of 2016-17: 34
Free-Agency Type: Unrestricted
2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 19.0 points, 4.1 rebounds, 4.6 assists, 1.1 steals, 0.6 blocks, 45.6 percent shooting
2015-16 Salary: $20,000,000
Last season marked the first time Dwyane Wade cleared $20 million in salary. It could also be the last.
Miami can justify paying Wade as much for another couple of years: legacy deals and such. It doesn't hurt that he was one of just six players to collect 19 points, four rebounds, 4.5 assists and one steal per game while shooting 45 percent or better from the floor. And it most certainly doesn't hurt that his statistical company consists of Jimmy Butler, Stephen Curry, LeBron James, Chris Paul and Russell Westbrook.
But the Heat need Wade to take less, as he has done before. Their offseason depends on it, as Steve Kyler wrote for Basketball Insiders:
"In a best-case scenario, the HEAT can get to about $41.4 million in cap space if they can off-load the contract of Josh McRoberts. That would give them enough room to re-sign Wade and Whiteside, but do little else. Every dollar the Heat gives to Wade is one less dollar they have in cap space, so balancing what Wade will need with what it will take to re-sign Whiteside is going to be a small challenge – even more so if the Heat want to add to the roster in a meaningful way.
"
Merely re-signing Hassan Whiteside and Wade to maintain the status quo won't sit well with team president Pat Riley. He'll want to do more, especially if the Heat aren't able to afford Deng. Wade, for his part, hasn't balked at the salary-cap gymnastics, per the Palm Beach Post's Dave George. He wants to remain with the Heat.
One "Heat person" expects the team and Wade to go the one-year route yet again, according to the Miami Herald's Barry Jackson. The Heat would give him a higher salary in exchange for extra breathing room in 2017, when the salary cap erupts yet again.
At some point, though, Miami will ask Wade to take less again. A lot less. It could be this summer; it could be in 2017. And at that time, if setting fire to millions of dollars is what it takes to surround him with more talent, then it's fair to assume he'll do just that.
Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com unless otherwise cited. Salary information via Basketball Insiders.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter @danfavale.
