Potential 2016 Offseason Blockbusters That Could Alter the NBA Landscape
Grab your imagination hats. It's time to hypothetically, and significantly, tinker with the NBA's competitive landscape.
Trades and free-agency signings will be our tools for this mission. We're proposing, then analyzing, deals and signings that would change the way we view certain teams, rebuilds and championship races.
These scenarios are not real or necessarily rumored. And they are deliberately ambitious. So open your minds and abandon your biases, because we're about to get weird.
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Kevin Durant to Anywhere But OKC
For those who don't know (since no one is talking about it), Kevin Durant will be a free agent this summer. And if he decides to leave the Oklahoma City Thunder, the NBA will never be the same, no matter where he ends up.
Not that the 2013-14 MVP is plotting his escape. He has not tired of headlining a perennial almost in Oklahoma City, per ESPN.com's Royce Young:
Most behind-the-scenes peeps, for that matter, expect Durant to stay put, even if it's only on a short-term deal, according to ESPN.com's Marc Stein:
Still, Durant will not want for suitors. That should compel him to at least entertain the idea of signing elsewhere. And if he does, the Thunder will go from being within one win of an NBA Finals bid to being what they were in 2014-15 without him: a fringe playoff unit.
Generally speaking, every team that likes winning basketball games will be interested in his services. More specifically, there are these guys, per Stein:
Any squad Durant joins becomes an instant contender and/or dynasty candidate, thus warping the NBA landscape to some degree. And three scenarios loom largest on the long-shot scale: Golden State Warriors, San Antonio Spurs and Boston Celtics.
Boston is the least likely of the three. Something about cruddy winters. I mean, who's the last big-time free agent to bolt for Beantown? But Durant, should he be on the prowl for new digs, would be remiss not to consider bucking the trend.
The Celtics tied for the third-best record in the Eastern Conference this season and have picks, prospects and reasonable contracts galore. And they can manufacture max space on a whim while still having enough left over to go hunting for role players. Butch Stearns of WEEI even claims the front office knows which players Durant wants to bring with him.
Plug him into the current rotation, and the Celtics are overnight juggernauts—lengthy, fast and frickin' frightening. Add another star partner via trade, along with some of his free-agent friends, and the Cleveland Cavaliers won't sleep for at least another year.
Golden State and San Antonio are different beasts. The salary-cap gymnastics each must endure to afford Durant are complicated. You can read about the Spurs' path to flexibility here, and about the Warriors' road to wiggle room here.
Viewed through common sense-starved vacuums, Durant's addition to Golden State or San Antonio doesn't change much about the NBA's pecking order. The rich get richer, am I right? But you're kidding yourself if you don't think there are long-term repercussions.
A core of Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, Klay Thompson and Durant in Oakland? Or a nucleus of LaMarcus Aldridge, Durant, Kawhi Leonard and Tony Parker, plus maybe Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili, in San Antonio?
Good luck to any of the NBA's other teams that plan on competing for a title over the next five to 10 years.
Boston Gets A Star...
Boston Celtics Receive: SG/SF Jimmy Butler
Chicago Bulls Receive: SG Avery Bradley, F/C Jonas Jerebko, PG Terry Rozier, No. 3 pick, No. 16 pick
Jimmy Butler is in a weird situation with the Chicago Bulls. He is clearly the franchise player and just one season into a five-year pact that will look like a bargain under the new salary cap. However, the team, apparently, isn't opposed to dealing him, according to The Vertical's Chris Mannix.
Moving him isn't a terrible idea if the Bulls are looking to hit the reset button. He is only 26, but that's more like 30 to 32 after spending the first part of his career playing for Tom Thibodeau. And Chicago can use him to acquire a healthy stable of picks, prospects and reasonably priced impact players.
Totally regrouping isn't the ideal scenario for a squad that, up until this season, was painted as Cleveland's biggest Eastern Conference threat. But it's time for the Bulls to fold on that dream. Their title window has expired with this foundation, if it was ever really open.
Now is the perfect time to start building from scratch. Pau Gasol (player option) and Joakim Noah are free agents, and Derrick Rose's contract-turned-financial albatross comes off the books next season.
Finding a taker for Butler won't be particularly hard—especially if Bulls general manager Gar Forman has Celtics president Danny Ainge on speed dial.
Boston tried prying Butler out of Chicago at the trade deadline, according to the Boston Herald's Steve Bulpett. Talks never progressed, per the Chicago Tribune's K.C. Johnson, because the Celtics threw out "lowball" offers. But while on the Toucher and Rich show, Mannix indicated that he expects Ainge to give it another go:
Attaching the No. 3 and 16 picks in this year's draft to quality rotation guys like Avery Bradley, Jonas Jerebko and Terry Rozier is a great place for Boston to start.
Those two first-rounders are excellent building blocks for Chicago. Jerebko provides floor spacing at the 4 and 5, something the Bulls deeply lack, and will be paid just $5 million next season if his contract is guaranteed.
Bradley has two years and roughly $17 million left on a deal that's ridiculously cheap even before factoring in the salary-cap explosion. He can survive defending point guards, shooting guards or small forwards and is the perfect off-ball weapon, having drilled 37.5 percent of his spot-up triples in 2015-16.
Rozier, don't forget, was a borderline lottery prospect in 2015. He is buried on Boston's deep bench but could be Chicago's successor to Rose.
No further justification is needed for the Celtics. They get a star without ravaging their infrastructure and become infinitely more dangerous in the Eastern Conference. And they have the flexibility to come up on this offer without cheating themselves.
The Celtics can flip, say, Brooklyn's 2018 first-rounder as well and still emerge on top. They shouldn't have to dig that deep into their war chest. Butler isn't a top-10 superstar. But they can. Hell, they might.
When a core that at the very least includes Isaiah Thomas, Butler, Jae Crowder, Kelly Olynyk and Marcus Smart is at stake, anything's possible.
...And Then Signs Al Horford
Best part of the Celtics trading for Butler and the $17.6(ish) million he's owed in 2016-17? They can still afford to sign a star free agent.
Durant is the perfect candidate. But we're realists. He's signing with the Spurs. Plenty of other teams will be chasing him. Boston is an intriguing spot, particularly with Butler in tow, but let's go out on a limb and say he joins another organization. What are the Celtics to do?
Sup, Al Horford?
Horford was another name Boston pursued at the trade deadline. But, according to The Vertical's Adrian Wojnarowski (h/t NESN.com), Ainge resisted proposing any monster packages because he feels the Celtics have a "real chance" at snagging him in free agency.
This comes with the usual caveat: Even after the Atlanta Hawks were bounced by the Cavaliers in the second round of the playoffs, Horford's allegiance to the city and team didn't waver, per Zach Klein of WSB-TV:
But the Hawks, not unlike the Bulls, have already been as far as they can with the current core. They won't have cap space to burn if they plan on re-signing Kent Bazemore and Horford. And it's difficult to argue in favor of perpetuating an early exit treadmill.
With the Celtics, who have presumably obtained Butler in our imaginary world, Horford has the chance to rip apart the East, Cleveland included, for real. He fits seamlessly into head coach Brad Stevens' offensive spacing schemes and gives Boston its first legitimate post-up weapon since Kevin Garnett.
Landing him will admittedly cost the Celtics a truckload of collateral damage. Jared Sullinger's (restricted free agent) and Evan Turner's returns would no longer be guaranteed. But Boston has more than $35 million in free-agent, non-guaranteed and first-round holds even after shipping out Jerebko and those two picks. If they want Horford, they can make it work.
Just imagine them trotting out Butler, Crowder, Horford, Smart or Turner and Isaiah Thomas as their opening-night starting five next season. That's enough two-way power to indefinitely keep the rest of the East on pins and needles.
Denver's and Indiana's About-Faces
Denver Nuggets Receive: SF Paul George
Indiana Pacers Receive: SG/SF Will Barton, SF Wilson Chandler, C Jusuf Nurkic, No. 7 pick, No. 15 pick, Memphis Grizzlies' top-five protected 2017 first-round pick
Please direct all blame for the inspiration of this idea to The Ringer's Bill Simmons:
And if you're looking for a reason to doubt Paul George's hypothetical availability, Steve Kyler of Basketball Insiders will spoon-feed you the necessary skepticism: "Not sure where the trading Paul George thing came from, but was laughed off the phone when I asked a Pacers source if it was a consideration," he wrote. "The Pacers are absolutely not looking at moving Paul George, unless the deal returned Kevin Durant."
What about if it returned a heaping pile of awesome and cheaply priced players, both young and seasoned, along with three first-round picks?
Indiana's president, Larry Bird, has the team immersed in the early stages of a tactical face-lift. He pawned off Roy Hibbert on the Los Angeles Lakers last season, saw David West set more than $10 million on fire to join the Spurs and just fired—um, I mean, did not renew the contract of—head coach Frank Vogel.
The Pacers, in turn, are expected to get younger, faster, more versatile. Few players boast George's top-to-bottom range, and he only recently turned 26. But Indiana has to start thinking about his player option for 2018-19—his ability to reach unrestricted free agency isn't that far away. Bird would do well to get his hands on a bunch of cost-controlled assets.
Each of these three draft picks can be seen as a potential cornerstone, and people forget how good Wilson Chandler, who missed all of 2015-16, can be when healthy. He plays and defends the 2, 3 and 4, and his end-to-end athleticism at least begins to fill the void left by George.
Will Barton takes care of the rest. He emerged as a valuable scorer and playmaker this season after receiving extended spin from the Denver Nuggets.
Know who else averaged 18 points, three assists and seven rebounds per 36 minutes while shooting better than 34 percent from downtown? Kevin Durant, Gasol and George. That's it. And Barton will earn just a little over $7 million total through 2017-18.
Jusuf Nurkic is a stellar complement to Myles Turner, who needs to see time as both a stretch 4 and 5. Nurkic can score in the post, is an understated passer and polices the paint with savvy. He won't earn more than $3 million in a single season through 2017-18, and his theoretical arrival comes at a good time, with Jordan Hill and Ian Mahinmi both slotted for free agency.
George, meanwhile, turns the Nuggets into a borderline Western Conference contender. He is ball-handling relief for Emmanuel Mudiay, can vacillate between playing the 3 and 4 with Danilo Gallinari and will have extra room to drive when Denver sticks Nikola Jokic at the 5.
Another thing: Acquiring George and his $18.3 million salary next season won't prohibit the Nuggets from creating near-max cap space. They have more than $20 million in maneuverability as it stands, and George barely tacks on to the bottom line after accounting for outgoing money and first-round holds.
Bidding adieu to D.J. Augustin's $3.9 million free-agent hit ensures the Nuggets retain $20 million-plus in spending power. So, in theory, they could deal for a top-15 superstar, then flesh out an already formidable roster with even more mid- to high-end talent.
What a time to live in this fake universe.
Hollywood's Happy Ending(?)
Los Angeles Lakers Receive: PF Derrick Favors, SF Gordon Hayward
Utah Jazz Receive: D'Angelo Russell, No. 2 pick
Something Lakers executive vice president of basketball operations Jim Buss told Basketball Insiders' Eric Pincus ahead of the draft lottery still stands out: "Right now, I think our young guys are the perfect number, and we will add solid veterans."
Sounds ominous.
As did general manager Mitch Kupchak's post-lottery sentiments, per the Los Angeles Times' Mike Bresnahan:
Derrick Favors and Gordon Hayward do not vault the Lakers into the Western Conference's championship circle. But they fit the bill for a team notoriously obsessed with expedited rebuilds.
Both of them combine to make just over $27.1 million next season. The Lakers can absorb that much in their sleep this summer. That's before they, as expected, cut ties with a bulk of their free agents. And they needn't use that additional money to re-sign restricted free agent Jordan Clarkson. The Gilbert Arenas provision, as outlined in Larry Coon's CBA FAQ, gives them the means to keep him without eating into their cap space.
Neither Favors nor Hayward is an All-Star. But they are as close as you can get without actually being one. Favors can jump center next to Julius Randle, Hayward is one of the league's most polished point forwards, and they both boost Los Angeles' shoddy defense.
Assuming the Philadelphia 76ers take Ben Simmons with the No. 1 pick, the Lakers are essentially trading Brandon Ingram—after they actually select him—and D'Angelo Russell for Favors and Hayward. Replacing a young point guard in today's floor general-drenched NBA won't be too difficult long term, and Clarkson and Hayward provide more than enough playmaking in the interim. And while Ingram is a three-and-D stud, he won't appeal to free agents as much as Hayward (or Favors).
The Utah Jazz, of course, would be setting back their rebuild with this deal. But they have the more contemporary Trey Lyles waiting behind Favors, and Hayward will be due a massive raise in 2017 once he declines his player option.
Building around Dante Exum, Rudy Gobert, Rodney Hood, Ingram and Russell is a tantalizing endeavor, and it's not like the Jazz are caging championships with their present roster anyway. This trade lets them do for later what the Lakers would be doing for now: swing for the fences.
Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com unless otherwise cited. Salary information via Basketball Insiders.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter @danfavale.
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