Belmont Stakes 2016: Post-Preakness Odds and Preview
The Preakness Stakes is now in the record books and while horse racing fans will have to wait another year to try to recapture American Pharoah's Triple Crown glory, the Belmont Stakes will still be a must-watch event.
Exaggerator, after losing to Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist four separate times, was finally able to turn the tables on his rival and win the Preakness, the same race his father Curlin won nine years ago. Could there be a budding rivalry between Exaggerator and Nyquist and a rematch looming in the Belmont Stakes?
The field for the Belmont Stakes, the final jewel of the Triple Crown, has not yet been formally established and the picture will become clearer in the next couple of weeks. Let's take an early look at how the race could shape up.
Schedule and TV Information
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Friday, June 10
4-6 p.m. ET: Belmont Stakes Access, NBC Sports
Saturday, June 11
3-5 p.m. ET: Belmont Stakes Pre-Race Coverage, NBC Sports
5-7 p.m. ET: The Belmont Stakes, NBC
7-7:30 p.m. ET: Belmont Stakes Post-Race, NBC Sports
Likely Contenders and Odds for Likely Contenders
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There is a three-week gap between the Preakness and Belmont Stakes, longer than the two-week break between the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness. While three races in five weeks is a lot to ask of any horse, there will be several familiar faces from both the Derby and the Preakness back in the Belmont Stakes.
Exaggerator will be back for the Belmont Stakes, trainer Keith Desormeaux confirmed immediately after the Preakness Stakes, saying on the NBC broadcast he would be there "with bells on" (h/t Steve Petrella). Nyquist, the Kentucky Derby champion, could be back as well to try to avenge his Preakness defeat as the Bloodhorse's Claire Novak tweeted that trainer Doug O'Neill said it was a "strong possibility".
Both colts will have to face some new faces. There are several talented, up-and-coming colts who could have an impact on the big race. The list of contenders is not a hard one—three weeks is practically a lifetime in horse racing and a lot can change. Here is a list of horses who could show up at the Belmont Stakes with early odds that I set.
- Exaggerator, 7-5
- Nyquist, 8-5
- Unified, 3-1
- Suddenbreakingnews, 4-1
- Destin, 6-1
- Cherry Wine, 10-1
- Lani, 12-1
- Governor Malibu, 20-1
- American Freedom, 20-1
Belmont Park Facts
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Dimensions: The mile-and-a-half main track is the largest dirt thoroughbred track in North America. Inside of the dirt main track, there are two turf courses: the Widener Turf Course, which is a 1 5/16-mile course, and the Inner Turf Course, which measures 1 3/16 miles.
Nickname: Big Sandy
Belmont Stakes Record: 1973, Secretariat in a time of 2:24.00
Last year, Belmont Park capped the attendance to 90,000 fans for the Belmont Stakes and while there were not as many people in attendance as in some previous years, those who made it got to be part of a once-in-a-lifetime sporting experience. The grandstand literally shook from the cheers of the crowd as American Pharoah crossed the wire first, ending the 37-year Triple Crown drought.
Belmont Park has been the home of some of the greatest races in thoroughbred racing history as well as some of the most heart-breaking defeats. The Triple Crown had been on the line 14 times at the Belmont between 1978 and 2015 and hadn't been won until American Pharoah last year.
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Top Storylines
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Who is the top three-year-old?
The budding rivalry between Nyquist and Exaggerator is great for horse racing. Both colts are consistent and talented and could make the rest of the year very interesting. While American Pharoah was brilliant, his dominance made races thrilling but not very interesting. At this point, Nyquist and Exaggerator are very evenly matched, and the Belmont could decide their rivalry.
Will a fresh horse surprise?
There are several new contenders pointing towards the Belmont Stakes that will have an advantage over horses like Nyquist and Exaggerator, who have run two hard-fought races in a short span of time. While Nyquist and Exaggerator are the recognizable names, there could be an unknown colt waiting in the wings to steal their spotlight.
Dark Horses to Watch
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Suddenbreakingnews
After briefly entertaining the idea of putting his late closer, Suddenbreakingnews, in the Preakness Stakes after a game fifth-place finish in the Kentucky Derby, trainer Donnie Von Hemel elected to wait for the Belmont Stakes, telling the Daily Racing Form that the decision was "the best thing for the horse".
Suddenbreakingnews has the stamina to run the mile-and-a-half and the style to be a big factor in the final furlong. Coming in fresh should give him a further advantage over his rivals who have competed in both prior legs of the Triple Crown.
Destin
Destin came into the Kentucky Derby short on experience and with eight weeks since his last start. Despite those obstacles, he ran a competitive race to finish sixth, a result that posed the question—would he have run even better with a more traditional prep race instead of the eight-week gap?
He had a recent workout in preparation for the Belmont Stakes and, according to Equibase, completed four furlongs in 48.22 seconds.
Lani
With his bad boy reputation and bizarre antics on and off the racetrack, Lani has been an enigma throughout the Triple Crown so far. However, he showed some improvement in the Preakness Stakes, finishing fifth, and seems to be slowly heading in the right direction. While he may have benefited from the hot pace and the off track at the Preakness, he could pick up the pieces and close at Belmont Park.
Governor Malibu
A fresh face on the Triple Crown trail, this colt stepped up to graded stakes for the first time in his last start and was a fast-closing second in the Peter Pan Stakes, a prep for the Belmont Stakes. His trainer Christophe Clement parlayed a win in the Peter Pan to a victory in the Belmont Stakes in 2014 with Tonalist and could take a similar trajectory this year.
Favorites
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Exaggerator
Exaggerator has a lot of upside heading towards the Belmont Stakes. In addition to his stamina-rich pedigree, he is also bred to continue to improve as he develops. His sire, Curlin, won the Preakness Stakes in 2007 and went on to finish second in the Belmont Stakes that year. He continued to get better as he matured and capped off his year with a win in the Breeders' Cup Classic. With experience, Exaggerator seems to be getting better and better.
Trainer Keith Desormeaux followed a strict training strategy for the Preakness Stakes, as he explained to Tom LaMarra of The Bloodhorse, and should have his colt ready to fire another big race in the Belmont.
"“My philosophy was to take it as easy as possible because you’re not going to gain any fitness in those two weeks. I did what I could to get him happy and fresh and strong, and I’ve always said he had a great ability to recover. He showed it today.”
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Nyquist
One loss does not mean that the champion is a loser. Nyquist managed to become the first horse since Smarty Jones in 2004 to win the Run for the Roses while undefeated and while he did taste defeat for the first time in the Preakness Stakes, he fought back gallantly after running some demanding early fractions.
While it remains to be seen whether or not he can be effective at a mile and a half, he was tested for the first time in his career in the Preakness Stakes and showed he has the tenacity to fight back.
Predictions
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Exaggerator looked like he had plenty left in the tank as he kicked clear to win the second leg of the Triple Crown. His two biggest wins at this point have come on an off track, so the question remains whether or not he can be as brilliant on a fast track. The Belmont Stakes could shape up to be a showdown between the two best three-year-old colts in the land.
Win: Exaggerator
Place: Governor Malibu
Show: Nyquist
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