Have You Heard the One Where Kevin Durant Joins the Spurs This Offseason?
Currently locked in a tough second-round battle against the San Antonio Spurs, Kevin Durant may find himself in the same matchup next season. Wearing a different uniform. A black one.
Yes, there's a plausible scenario where, instead of battling them, he's lined up alongside two-time Defensive Player of the Year Kawhi Leonard, All-Star power forward LaMarcus Aldridge and future Hall of Fame head coach Gregg Popovich.
As the Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder, Durant's current squad, fight toward the Western Conference Finals, the 27-year-old forward might be noticing how much easier his job could be if he just switched sides. Prior to San Antonio's Game 1 blowout, he'd already commented on Popovich, per Buck Harvey of the San Antonio Express-News:
"Having a very good coach is probably the most important thing in this league. You can have all the great players you want, but you have to have somebody to orchestrate it. That’s what they have. They have great players, but they also have a great coach to put them in position to utilize all their strength as individuals and make it come together as a team.
"
Reading between the lines isn't particularly difficult, especially on the heels of an earlier report that the former MVP could be headed to San Antonio when he hits free agency.
"San Antonio has rebuilt its dynasty, but rival executives believe the Spurs will explore ways of adding Durant to the mix, and the franchise's culture makes it intriguing," Chris Mannix explained for The Vertical in March. And he's not the only one.
ESPN.com's Zach Lowe joined in during the late stages of April: "The Spurs buzz [about Durant] is ascendant in a way that is eerily similar to what happened last January at the D-League Showcase, when a half-dozen unconnected team executives warned me over the span of a few days that LaMarcus Aldridge would bolt from Portland for San Antonio."
Exploring and generating buzz is all the Spurs can do at this stage. Right now, the organization's primary focus is beating Durant rather than signing him. But there are indeed ways of adding the dynamic scorer into the fold for the 2016-17 season, and that has to terrify the rest of the Association.
How It Happens
Per USA Today's Jeff Zillgitt, the projected salary cap for the upcoming campaign will stand at $92 million. Meanwhile, the Spurs could have up to $84.6 million assigned to incumbent players, per the salary figures from Basketball-Reference.com that you can see displayed below (player options in black, team option in yellow):
According to Larry Coon's all-knowing FAQ on the NBA's collective bargaining agreement, a max contract for a player such as Durant with nine years of professional experience takes up 30 percent of the cap. We're still working with approximate numbers here, but that equates to about $27.6 million.
That figure and the $84.6 million already owed go a bit over the cap, so something has to give. Fortunately, the Spurs have a bit of wiggle room with option-laden contracts.
Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili and David West could all opt out of the final seasons on their current deals, and that would save San Antonio $9,992,630. The team could also turn down the next year of Jonathan Simmons' contract and cut another $874,636 from the books.
Painful as it may be to let a promising, homegrown talent such as Simmons hit the open market, landing Durant would be worth it. Getting Duncan and Ginobili out of their current deals would be less upsetting, since they'd either retire or sign discounted contracts to strengthen the organization they've always played for. Even West could do the same thing, despite his shorter tenure.
But it's still not enough.
Even without looking at cap holds for the empty roster slots (the one previously occupied by Boban Marjanovic, for example, since he'd be hitting free agency and couldn't be retained), the Spurs would have $73,716,341 allocated to the players still on the books. Adding in Durant's $27.6 million—and we have to assume he's getting the full max, since plenty of franchises will offer him sticker price—would still push them into nine figures.
Salary dumps would become necessary, and that means the end of Danny Green and Boris Diaw's tenures with the Spurs. The former is owed $10 million in 2016-17, and the latter $6.5 million (only $3 million of which is guaranteed, per Spotrac.com), which makes them both prime candidates to be moved.
Finding landing spots shouldn't be difficult, given their enduring skills and reputations as valuable specialists. In a worst-case scenario, the Spurs would need to package future second-round picks to sweeten the deals and escape their financial pickle.
And once that happens, the Spurs would have enough cap space to land Durant and re-sign both Duncan and Ginobili to one-year deals—ideally at the veteran's minimum.
Resulting Roster
This whole process is by no means akin to gutting the established roster. Dominant as the Spurs are, they can afford to travel down this path without uneasy feelings, especially because Popovich has a history of making almost anyone who enters his system emerge as a quality contributor.
With Durant in the fold (and Duncan/Ginobili re-signed), San Antonio would be looking at this prospective depth chart:
| Tony Parker | Patty Mills | Kawhi Leonard | Kevin Durant | LaMarcus Aldridge |
| Manu Ginobili | Kyle Anderson | Tim Duncan | ||
That's one heck of an eight-man start. With Patty Mills continuing to thrive as a long-range marksman and Kyle Anderson breaking out on the defensive end, there aren't any weak links in that core.
According to NBA Math's total points added (TPA), all eight players listed above were above-average contributors in 2015-16:
Even if the veterans move in the wrong direction, Aldridge will only be more comfortable during his second season as a Spur. For perspective, his TPA per 36 minutes stood at 1.26 during the regular season and has since jumped to 4.71 through six playoff appearances.
Anderson should also keep improving, and there's no telling how much better Leonard could become.
Beyond these eight, the Spurs will still have to fill out their roster. They can pick up some depth with the No. 29 pick of the 2016 NBA draft, and then they'll have to turn to the free-agency pool for more minimum-contract signees.
Fortunately, that won't be too difficult.
If San Antonio convinced West to opt out of his deal with the Indiana Pacers and forgo a much larger payday for a chance at chasing a ring, it'll have no trouble doing so with similarly talented players in 2016. With Durant and Leonard both on the roster, who wouldn't want to join forces with the Spurs?
Clear-Cut Favorites?
So long as the Golden State Warriors remain intact, it's tough to call any other team the prohibitive favorite. The Dubs are, after all, coming off a record-setting 73-win campaign and figure to keep their entire core together if they don't chase Durant.
But the Spurs would immediately be in that same class.
Durant and Leonard stand out as two of the five best players in the NBA, along with Stephen Curry, Russell Westbrook and LeBron James (in no particular order). Now that he's settled in, Aldridge has resumed his status as one of the league's best power forwards, and his burgeoning interior defense would ease the transition to the 5 in a small-ball starting lineup.
Duncan remains effective on defense; he finished tied for seventh in defensive points saved, per NBA Math, and ranked No. 2 in ESPN.com's defensive real plus/minus during his age-39 season, behind only Andrew Bogut.
With Durant, Leonard, Aldridge and Duncan serving as the centerpieces, the Spurs wouldn't have many worries. That's especially true if Ginobili returns, West re-signs for another minimum deal and San Antonio adds other quality rotation pieces at discount prices.
Because of the roster's inherent flexibility, depth shouldn't be a huge concern.
Parker and Mills can both run the point, as can Ginobili in a pinch. Shooting guard may be the weakest position, but Durant could easily slide over to the 2 in bigger lineups—something he's done sparingly in previous years with the Thunder. There's no trouble at the forward spots with Durant, Leonard and Anderson all able to play either slot, and center is locked and loaded with Aldridge in small-ball lineups and Duncan in bigger ones.
Popovich would be able to mix and match as he sees fit, and his creative juices would only start flowing more fervently if general manager R.C. Buford worked his magic in free agency.
The Spurs are always one of basketball's best teams, and they haven't missed the playoffs since 1996-97, back when Popovich took over for Bob Hill midway through the season. The 2015-16 campaign produced one of the best iterations in franchise history, even if their 67 wins could only earn the West's No. 2 seed.
Add Durant into the mix, and the Spurs lift their ceiling even higher while piecing together a core that should thrive well into the future.
Leonard might even crack a smile.
Adam Fromal covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter @fromal09.
Unless otherwise indicated, all stats are from Basketball-Reference.com or NBAMath.com.
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