Las Vegas Seeing the Stephen Curry Effect Following Star's Ankle Injury
LAS VEGAS — Last summer, after a rigorous practice during the U.S. men's national basketball team's minicamp at UNLV's Mendenhall Center, Stephen Curry told reporters he enjoys the camaraderie of his All-Star teammates and loves working out with the world's best players when he visits the entertainment capital with Team USA.
He added that he's never been intrigued by the gambling world. But the gambling world is most certainly intrigued by Curry and his presence—or absence—on the basketball court.
Such was the case in Game 2 of the Western Conference opening-round series between the Golden State Warriors and Houston Rockets.
Golden State, which laid minus-13 and won the series opener by 26, opened a 13-point favorite in the second game. But when Curry cut his warm-up routine short prior to Monday's contest, favoring a tender ankle, and it was announced he wouldn't play, the line was readjusted to 8.5.
The Warriors scored a 115-106 victory over the Rockets, covering the closing line.
"It was one of those games where the star player was questionable, and you can read between the lines and see what is going to happen. We didn't get hurt on that," said Jay Kornegay, vice president of race and sports operations at the Westgate Las Vegas. "I think there were some people who took the points at plus-13 but then came back at minus-8.5. It was so minimal, though."
Those who middled the game (by hitting the Rockets at plus-13 and the Warriors at minus-8.5 and cashing in when the final margin landed on nine points) certainly didn't plan to when first making their wagers on Houston. The advantageous moment came about when the number was readjusted five points lower and minimal bettors took a shot by laying the chalk with Golden State.
"Just like any player, you're going to have an influence on the line," Kornegay said. "The star player is always going to influence the line. We know what the betting public is going to do. [The movement] is geared toward the sharper player. The public is going to play the Warriors all they want."
He doesn't see any difference between the Warriors and the NFL's public favorites: the New England Patriots, Green Bay Packers, Pittsburgh Steelers and Denver Broncos. In other words, any team that's winning.
For those sharp bettors who know and understand the analytics of betting sports, they know in advance a specified number to add or subtract from a line in relation to specific players. Those who attributed five points to Curry's absence knew what they were doing when the final spread landed on 8.5.
"If you're modeling a game, you simply deduct," said longtime analyst Dave Cokin, who has been a staple of the Las Vegas betting community since 1981. "It's a metric. It's more popular in baseball. For Curry, basically it is five points, which is nuts.
"I can't ever recall doing that before."
(One important caveat: Analytics weren't in place when Michael Jordan was leading the Chicago Bulls to dominant victories and winning six NBA titles.)
The veteran sports betting expert said he often finds the best bet in such situations is to leave the game alone, knowing there is plenty of action elsewhere.
"I don't like playing games with a key guy out," Cokin said. "I've seen enough of that with [San Antonio Spurs coach Gregg] Popovich when he rests players. In one-game situations, more often than not, teams will rise up. You kind of saw that with the Warriors [in Game 2]."
Heading into Game 3, the line finds Golden State laying minus-5.5 points at Houston (as of noon PT Wednesday), where the Warriors have won their last two visits by 20 and four—both this season. Going back to last year's series-clinching victory in the playoffs, Golden State is on a six-game winning streak against the Rockets, with an average margin of 14.3 points per win.
Results of an MRI revealed Wednesday there is no major cause of concern with the MVP candidate's ankle. With his team holding the 2-0 edge in the series, Curry continued to undergo treatment, and Golden State coach Steve Kerr believed his All-Star sharpshooter would have plenty of time to get healthy before tipoff.
That said, Curry himself isn't committing to a Game 3 return just yet, per Monte Poole of CSN Bay Area:
Golden State, which is on a 49-33 run against the spread, has missed Curry's services just four times this season, including Monday night.
In those four outings without Curry, the Warriors were 2-2 against the number, while the over cashed in three of the four times.
Interestingly, Monday wasn't the first time Curry sat against the Rockets this season, as he missed the Dec. 31 encounter in Houston, where the Warriors won outright, 114-110. In that game, Golden State was a 3.5-point underdog, and the total was 210.5.
"Think about who the market is in December," said RJ Bell, founder of Pregame.com, which is the official odds provider to the Associated Press. "The significant number of bettors are sharp bettors during the regular season. Come the playoffs, there are still sharp bettors, but there are more recreational bettors.
"There is going to be more impact with or without a star player. With Curry, his absence would be much more profound because of the number of professional bettors versus the number of recreational bettors. There is [a] higher number of recreational bettors who are influenced by his absence.
"I think there are many professional bettors who like the added complexity of injury uncertainty because they believe they're better able to price that uncertainty than the market, thus another chance to find an edge."
For those wondering how the Warriors fare when Curry has a lackadaisical performance, he's scored in single digits just one time this season (Jan. 2 at home, where the Warriors defeated the visiting Denver Nuggets, 111-108), and Golden State did not cover the minus-15 points. The game went over the 215.5 posted total.
Even further, when Curry has scored fewer than 20 points—which happened 13 times this season—the Warriors were 7-6 against the books, while eight of those 13 games stayed under the posted number.
Willie Ramirez is a Las Vegas-based freelance reporter and Southern Nevada correspondent for the Associated Press. Follow him on Twitter: @WillieGRamirez
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