Top 2016 Offseason Priorities for the Denver Nuggets
Following yet another middling campaign, the Denver Nuggets are missing out on postseason festivities for a third straight year. Denver finished with a 33-49 record, right in the dreaded purgatory of the NBA—neither good enough to make the playoffs nor bad enough to secure a top lottery draft pick.
This is a scary place for a franchise that racked up 10 consecutive postseason appearances under George Karl's guidance prior to the drought. Fans don't seem as engaged anymore, and the core of the team isn't established. Plus, there still feels like a lack of direction and a foggy future.
If there is one team that needs to nail offseason transactions and roster moves to perfection, it's the Nuggets.
5. Become More Exciting
The Nuggets had an exceptional 38-3 home record in 2012-13. The high altitude, a run-and-gun offense and a passionate crowd made Denver one of the toughest visits. The Nuggets dropped 23 games at Pepsi Center this year, and a lack of talent isn't the only issue.
As banal as it may sound, the Nuggets are simply not exciting enough. Even though Denver has never appeared to be true a basketball city, fans can still get behind a competitive, hardworking group. Unfortunately, attendance has plummeted over the last couple of years, hitting rock bottom among NBA teams this season, according to ESPN.
Denver head coach Mike Malone had the following to say on the worrying trend, according to Paul Klee of the Gazette: "It's up to us. The fans aren't going to give it to us. We don't have a home-court advantage. When we do have people in the building, they're rooting for the other team. So we have to find a way—coaches and players—to protect our home court."
It's not a simple issue to solve. Denver's front office has been obstinate in its dealings, refusing to bottom out in a desperate attempt to remain relevant, and it has partially backfired.
Throwing together mediocre teams isn't going to get it done. Some fans can buy into a smart rebuilding process, but there has to be an incentive to watch. That's why hitting rock bottom for a season is the preferred route—it provides a shot at drafting a potential superstar, in turn bringing hope and excitement.
Nikola Jokic is bound to be a stud, a true steal for a second-round pick, but he isn't the aesthetically pleasing star who will sell tickets—at least not yet.
If the franchise wants to bolt back to relevance, it has to arouse interest in its fanbase. Addressing these other pressing concerns is a good way to start.
4. Establish a Core and Direction
The Nuggets roster is an awkward mix of inexperienced players and mid-career guys in their primes. That type of complexion leads to an internal dilemma: Do you try to win every game or sacrifice the veterans' minutes to develop youngsters?
Ideally, a team's best players should reach their prime simultaneously to maximize a contention window. Danilo Gallinari, Wilson Chandler and Kenneth Faried—Denver's three highest-paid players—will all be in their 30s by the time the young ones peak.
Building a team around Emmanuel Mudiay, Gary Harris and Jokic isn't a ludicrous notion. The Nuggets could add to that core through the draft while looking to move their veterans for players in their early 20s.
If Denver doesn't believe that's a foundational trio, it could concoct trade packages in pursuit of immediate help. The forward spots are set with Gallinari and Chandler, but there is still some inconsistency at the point. Atlanta Hawks were listening to offers for Jeff Teague earlier this season, according to Yahoo's Chris Mannix; he's the player type who could provide an instant boost.
Either way, Denver needs to pick a clear direction and construct its roster accordingly.
3. Discover a Defensive Identity
Any team that is serious about winning but lacks superstar talent has to focus on defense, and that's something the Nuggets haven't done.
Denver surrendered 106.4 points per 100 possessions this season, ranking 24th, according to NBA.com. Below-average defenders who log big minutes hurt the whole, and the Nuggets have several of them. Faried has always been erratic, and there is no reliable stopper at the point.
Head coach Mike Malone preaches defensive discipline but doesn't have the right personnel to employ a solid scheme. Denver lacks the positional versatility to switch the pick-and-roll effectively, although it admittedly tried to address the issue.
It picked up JaKarr Sampson, who was waived by the Philadelphia 76ers midseason, and Malone almost immediately handed him the starting job. The move was partially forced due to Chandler and Gallinari being shut down for the season, but the Nuggets still actively sacrificed offense to tighten up in the back.
"He's a guy who can guard (positions) 1 through 4," Malone said, according to Christopher Dempsey of the Denver Post. "He's got size, strength, athleticism and aggression. I think you can never have enough of that."
The Nuggets gave up 2.5 fewer points per 100 possessions with Sampson on the court, per NBA.com. Others did their part as well—Denver's defensive rating was 6.2 points better with Jokic playing, Gary Harris was a pest on the perimeter and Darrell Arthur has always been reliable.
Denver has to continue its search for two-way players, as Sampson doesn't offer enough offensively to be a long-term solution on the wing. But guys like that are hard to find, and the Nuggets could potentially solve the issue internally. If Mudiay improves and Chandler returns to the court, that may be sufficient for Malone to craft an above-average defense next year.
2. Spend Smart on Free Agents
Nuggets president Josh Kroenke, optimistic as ever, offered a positive outlook when asked about the 2016 free-agency period earlier this season.
"When the cap jumps next summer on the Nuggets side we’re going to have the ability to add a max player to that team without changing anything," Kroenke said, according to Zach Mikash of Denver Stiffs.
News flash: Kevin Durant isn't walking through the door.
Denver isn't an attractive free-agent destination, and even landing a pseudo-star is no simple task. Besides, almost every single team in the league will be able to create room for a max player during the impending cap boom.
Chasing superstars who could catapult the Nuggets to title contention is a futile exercise. Instead, Denver should get ahead of the pack and focus on bringing in efficient, mid-tier players, guys who would normally have to wait their turn in the free-agency madness.
There are plenty of intriguing names. Jeremy Lin would be an upgrade over Jameer Nelson, Evan Fournier has made a leap since his tenure with the Nuggets, Evan Turner is a versatile cog and even Kent Bazemore could add some athleticism on the wing. Ryan Anderson and Dwight Powell are stretchy bigs who are interesting, but Denver would likely have to move Faried to avoid a logjam.
The Nuggets could extract some great value if they focus on the right bracket of free agents.
1. Pursue Blockbuster Trades
Denver has been cautious, almost tentative in its moves over the last couple of years, and it may be about time to get bold.
Even as the team hovers in mediocrity, general manager Tim Connelly has managed to assemble some assets. Simply sitting on those pieces won't bring the Nuggets back to relevance, but they could be enough to hook a big fish if one becomes available.
When asked about Jimmy Butler's future, Chicago Bulls' general manager Gar Forman suggested his team wouldn't be inherently opposed to any offers this summer. That's exactly the type of situation Denver should monitor closely and pounce at.
The Nuggets have six picks in this summer's draft (three first-rounders), according to RealGM. Not all of those selections are going to be used—there aren't enough roster spots, and adding several rookies wouldn't help. That provides even more incentive to be proactive.
Outside of Jokic, who truly has star potential, no player should be considered untouchable. Will Barton, Faried, Gallinari and Chandler could help title contenders, while Jusuf Nurkic, Harris and even Mudiay would enhance a rebuilding package.
With some audacity, the Nuggets have a chance to escape the trenches of the Western Conference next season. All it takes is an adventurous attitude, creativity and some luck.
All statistics are courtesy of NBA.com, unless otherwise noted, and accurate as of April 18.
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