2016 NBA Free Agents: List of Top Available Players This Offseason
One minute you're watching the Golden State Warriors chase the NBA's regular-season wins record as they try to successfully defend their 2015 title. Then, quite suddenly, it's the start of free agency.
That's how the cycle of professional basketball works. Time is not the Utah Jazz; it doesn't slow to a virtual halt. Free agency is coming—soon. So you need all the primers you can get.
This latest preview will churn through this offseason's piece de resistance and take a look at the top available names. These players don't have to be flight risks; they're just the best of the best.
Rankings will take into account stats, present status, health and age. Our previous dive into what free agency has to offer will serve as our starting point and allow us to see in which direction the league's offseason alphas are trending.
Honorable Mentions
1 of 11
15. Dwight Howard, Houston Rockets
Free-Agency Status: Unrestricted (player option)
Previous Rank: 14
Dwight Howard's foray into free agency will be a referendum on how the league views defensively capable centers who can't shoot on the back end of their primes.
In the meantime, his value is inherently driven down by plummeting offensive numbers and the absence of touch beyond the restricted area.
14. Tim Duncan, San Antonio Spurs
Free-Agency Status: Unrestricted (player option)
Previous Rank: 7
As the league gravitates toward rangier centers, Duncan is, sadly, becoming obsolete. He is of minimal use when facing teams that don't trot out a traditional big and, going on 40, cannot play forever. (I don't think.)
13. Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas Mavericks
Free-Agency Status: Unrestricted (player option)
Previous Rank: 12
Every year, it becomes a little more clear that Dirk Nowitzki is human. He still puts up 18-plus points on almost 45 percent shooting like clockwork, but he moves slower as the season trudges on.
Not that it particularly matters. Sitting inside the top 15 is pretty flipping fantastic for a 37-year-old, and Nowitzki has no plans to explore free agency, per Tim MacMahon of ESPN.com.
12. Pau Gasol, Chicago Bulls
Free-Agency Status: Unrestricted (player option)
Previous Rank: 9
Pau Gasol is having a monster season. He is just the eighth player overall to collect 16 points, 10 rebounds, four assists and two blocks per game—and the first to do so after his 32nd birthday. But he will turn 36 in July and, as evidenced by the Chicago Bulls' elimination from postseason contention, cannot be a focal point of a playoff squad for much longer.
11. Dwyane Wade, Miami Heat
Free-Agency Status: Unrestricted
Previous Rank: 13
Dwyane Wade is Benjamin Button-ing. This is the first season since 2010-11 he's appeared in 70-plus games, and his usage rate, while still high, is traveling in the right direction: down.
If he could shoot threes (and was willing to leave the Miami Heat), he would be even more of a general manager's dream.
10. Bradley Beal, Washington Wizards
2 of 11
Age: 22
Free-Agency Status: Restricted
Previous Rank: 15
2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 17.4 points, 3.4 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 1.0 steals, 44.9 percent shooting, 15.6 player efficiency rating
Bradley Beal wouldn't be a max-contract lock if not for his age. He has plateaued in many ways offensively, doesn't move the defensive needle and is still trying to prove he can be John Wall's superstar running mate.
Frequent stays on the sidelines don't help his case. He has missed at least 19 games in three of his first four seasons and, by the end of 2015-16, will have eclipsed 25 absences twice.
Still, Beal's value gets a significant boom from a shallow shooting guard position. He is a fantastic scorer who can work on or off the ball, with a gradually improving shot selection that includes fewer mid-range jumpers and more drives and three-pointers:
| 32.4 | 30.4 | 37.1 | |
| 38.2 | 33.9 | 27.9 |
That Beal can drill threes at efficient rates despite throwing up 250-plus deep balls every year is huge in today's NBA. Stephen Curry, Kawhi Leonard, Kyle Lowry, C.J. McCollum and Khris Middleton are the only other players matching his three-point clip while averaging at least 17 points and 2.5 assists per game.
More than 25 percent of Beal's minutes came at small forward this season as well. His defense must improve for him to be recognized alongside the most versatile wings, but he is already a mismatch maven.
Moral of the story? If the Washington Wizards don't give him max money, another team will.
9. Harrison Barnes, Golden State Warriors
3 of 11
Age: 23
Free-Agency Status: Restricted
Previous Rank: 11
2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 11.7 points, 4.9 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 0.6 steals, 46.4 percent shooting, 12.3 PER
To fully appreciate the value of Harrison Barnes, you have to use your imagination and envision how he would fare in a higher-usage role. His numbers don't incite double-takes, but they're not supposed to. Seven Warriors players (minimum 500 minutes logged) have a higher usage rate than him.
Comparatively, you must also understand, and treasure, that his impact won't always be quantifiable. As Marcus Thompson of the Bay Area News Group wrote:
"Consistency has been an issue with Barnes. That’s nothing new. Sometimes he looks spectacular. Sometimes you don’t notice he is on the floor. And his obvious natural talent makes the stretches of futility feel so profound. It’s partly due to being the fourth option and partly due to his ball-handling.
But the difference between Barnes of this year and in the past: his offensive struggles don’t define his impact. When he is scoring, especially hitting the 3, his contributions are obvious. But when he is not, Barnes makes an impact in his versatility on the defensive end.
"
Golden State's "Death Squad," one of the best five-man units ever, doesn't exist if Barnes isn't comfortable cycling through a vast array of defensive assignments. Opponents shoot at above-average clips when being guarded by him, but the Warriors defense doesn't actually suffer much when he's on the floor.
This functional malleability extends to his offensive role.
Need someone to score off the catch? Barnes ranks in the 81st percentile of spot-up efficiency. Looking for him to create? He is shooting better on pull-up jumpers than both Draymond Green and Andre Iguodala. In the market for a shooter who can survive with his back to the basket? His post-up efficiency is the second best among Golden State's talent, behind only Shaun Livingston.
For the Warriors to keep Barnes, they'll need to make him their highest-paid player next season. And he is so valuable not just to what they do, but overall, that they'll foot this bill—assuming a certain someone, whose name rhymes with Smevin Zurant, doesn't express interest in joining their cause.
8. Mike Conley, Memphis Grizzlies
4 of 11
Age: 28
Free-Agency Status: Unrestricted
Previous Rank: 5
2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 15.3 points, 6.1 assists, 2.9 rebounds, 1.2 steals, 42.2 percent shooting, 19.4 PER
Mike Conley's stock was always going to take a slight dip. He hasn't played since March 6 and will miss the Memphis Grizzlies' latest first-round exit playoff push with tendinitis in his Achilles.
There should likewise be some concern with funneling max or near-max money into a point guard who is entering the back end of his prime and has never piloted a top-10 offense. But those worries are trumped by a thin floor-general market and the fact that Conley could experience a late-career surge if given a larger role.
His production in Memphis has long been at the behest of high-usage bigs, namely Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph. Between the time Gasol's season ended and Conley incurred his own setback, his numbers exploded. He averaged 17.8 points and 6.1 assists on 48.1 percent shooting, including a 42.1 percent clip from long distance, and Memphis fielded the equivalent of a top-two offense with him on the hardwood.
Surround him with more shooters and ask him to attack before feeding the behemoths, and Conley's value as a distributor and scorer increases exponentially. And that's on top of his defensive appeal, having spent most of his career co-headlining some of the NBA's stingiest defensive squads.
So while there aren't a ton of teams in desperate need of a starting point guard, the ones that are, including the Grizzlies, will have ample incentive to shower him with dollar signs.
7. Nicolas Batum, Charlotte Hornets
5 of 11
Age: 27
Free-Agency Status: Unrestricted
Previous Rank: 8
2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 15.1 points, 6.2 rebounds, 5.8 assists, 0.9 steals, 0.6 blocks, 42.6 percent shooting, 15.7 PER
Nicolas Batum is having himself a season. Just in time, too. He will hit free agency this summer as a max-contract candidate, and there's a good, if not ironclad, chance he'll land such a deal.
Two players are clearing 15 points, six rebounds and five assists per game this season while putting down 35 percent or more of their triples. One is Batum; the other is James Harden.
Few players can shift between shooting guard, small forward and power forward as easily as Batum. He sees the floor like a point guard, but he has the length and size at 6'8" to operate like a pseudo-Draymond Green.
Having Batum on the floor instantly drums up the offensive value of everyone around him. His blend of playmaking mixed with above-average outside shooting complements any offensive style.
Kemba Walker doesn't start playing like an All-Star if Batum isn't around. He has spent more time alongside him than any other Charlotte Hornets teammate, and his shooting percentages skyrocket whenever Batum is on the court.
Pretty much every team in the Association will have gobs of cash to spend once the salary cap jumps. And there is hardly one on which Batum wouldn't be able to fit.
6. Hassan Whiteside, Miami Heat
6 of 11
Age: 26
Free-Agency Status: Unrestricted
Previous Rank: 10
2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 14.2 points, 11.9 rebounds, 3.7 blocks, 0.6 steals, 60.9 percent shooting, 25.6 PER
Hassan Whiteside has played himself up our free-agency ladder and back into the Miami Heat's starting lineup. And rightly so.
Since Miami initially moved him to the second unit at the start of February, Whiteside is averaging a nutty 16.7 points, 12.9 rebounds and 3.5 blocks per game on 60.4 percent shooting. Those numbers compare to his season averages, but the impact they're now having on the team's overall performance does not:
| 107.5 | 5 | 101.3 | 7 | 6.2 | 3 | |
| 109 | 3 | 106.9 | 26 | 2.1 | 11 |
"We need a higher level from Hassan, and I thought the time was right now," Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said of using Whiteside as a starter again, per ESPN.com's Michael Wallace. "This basketball team needs him to play at his best level, his most aggressive level, his most consistent level, his most reliable level, his most dominant physical level."
Indeed, Whiteside has become that important to Miami. He challenges more shots at the rim than anyone not named Pau Gasol and is on pace to post one of the 10 highest block rates in league history.
Even Whiteside's offensive worth is rising. He doesn't set up his teammates nearly enough, and his back-to-the-basket touches can be messy. But he's averaging more points per post-up possession than Andre Drummond, and DeAndre Jordan is the only qualified player who has proved more efficient at finishing off pick-and-rolls.
Don't be surprised when Whiteside generates max-contract offers. They're coming, and he's earned them.
5. Andre Drummond, Detroit Pistons
7 of 11
Age: 22
Free-Agency Status: Restricted
Previous Rank: 4
2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 16.3 points, 14.8 rebounds, 1.5 steals, 1.4 blocks, 52.2 percent shooting, 21.3 PER
It's crazy to think how far Andre Drummond still has to go before he's a finished product.
Because look at all he's already doing.
Just one player has ever matched his current rebounding and block percentages (DeAndre Jordan, 2014-15). He joins Bob McAdoo as only the second player under the age of 23 to average 16 points, 14 rebounds, one steal and one block per game. And he ranks second among all centers this season in combined points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks, despite not being much of a passer, trailing only megastar DeMarcus Cousins.
There are still plenty of holes in Drummond's game. He ranks in the bottom-20th percentile of points per back-to-the-basket possession and is shooting under 43 percent inside the paint.
In many ways, then, he is still a project. But he's a project who's co-starring on a playoff-bound team. He has a higher net rating than Reggie Jackson and leads all of the Detroit Pistons' everyday rotation players in defensive box plus/minus (DBPM), which measures how much better per 100 possessions the average defensive unit would be with a given player.
Detroit's offense is even statistically better with Drummond in tow. He is one of the most devastating pick-and-roll finishers alive, and defenses are still inclined to send double-teams whenever he catches the ball deep in the half court.
At a time when the NBA is marginalizing bigs who can't shoot, Drummond has established himself as a max-contract cornerstone. The odds of him leaving the Pistons—who can and will match any deal he receives—are slim, but he's so good that outside suitors will need to kick around the tires on his availability anyway.
4. DeMar DeRozan, Toronto Raptors
8 of 11
Age: 26
Free-Agency Status: Unrestricted (player option)
Previous Rank: 6
2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 23.6 points, 4.4 rebounds, 4.0 assists, 1.0 steals, 44.6 percent shooting, 21.6 PER
Can DeMar DeRozan serve as the No. 1 option on a contender?
Not long ago, the answer was "Lol, no." And then it was "Probably." And then "Um, maybe." Now it's just a flat-out "Yes," because it's exactly what he's doing.
DeRozan leads the Eastern Conference's second-best team, the Toronto Raptors, in usage rate and is notching the best PER of his career. The offense isn't worlds better when he's in the lineup, but it is better, as he's turned many of his weaknesses on the more glamorous end into strengths.
Kyle Lowry is the lone Raptor with a higher assist percentage, and DeRozan's 34.1 percent clip from downtown, in addition to being a personal best, comes relatively close to sniffing the league average (35.4). He has even expanded his offensive arsenal to include more accurate off-ball shooting; he is torching twine on nearly 43 percent of his catch-and-shoot treys.
It's become equally clear DeRozan won't be anchoring a top-notch perimeter defense anytime soon. Shooters are destroying him from beyond the arc, and of the 125 players to defend 150 or more spot-up touches this season, he ranks in the bottom 10 of points allowed per possession.
But the Raptors are forced to compensate for shoddy rim protection whenever Jonas Valanciunas is jumping center. Wings are forced to drop back in anticipation of dribble penetration, which leaves the entire team susceptible to crafty snipers. Plus, the absence of DeMarre Carroll, who just returned from right knee surgery, forced DeRozan onto some of the biggest defensive chores.
There is little doubt he'll grab a max deal for his increasingly polished offensive game alone. And this side of the Raptors' franchise-best regular season, it's difficult to argue that he isn't worth it.
3. Al Horford, Atlanta Hawks
9 of 11
Age: 29
Free-Agency Status: Unrestricted
Previous Rank: 3
2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 15.1 points, 7.2 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 1.5 blocks, 0.8 steals, 50.2 percent shooting, 19.3 PER
Something sinister recently went down on The Twitter Machine.
Seth Partnow of Nylon Calculus tweeted the following on dark-horse Rookie of the Year candidate Nikola Jokic: "Jokic's best reasonable upside scenario is basically Al Horford, right?" Soon after, judging from many—not all—of his mentions, it became clear people still don't appreciate just how gosh-darn good Horford is at basketball.
Do you know who the last center was to average 15 points, three assists and 1.5 blocks while making 75 or more three-pointers? Of course not. Before the 2015-16 version of Horford, there wasn't one.
Can you name the other players who have matched Horford's assist, steal and block percentages with a turnover rate south of 10? Obviously not. There aren't any.
How about the other two players this season with an offensive box plus/minus (OBPM) of at least 1.5 and DBPM of at least 2.6? Can you name them? You sure as heck know them: Draymond Green and Kawhi Leonard.
There isn't a more versatile, or reliable, big in the game right now. Horford is a defensive foundation and an offensive focal point. He excels on or off the ball and doesn't even need a specific number of touches to be effective.
Interested parties, including his incumbent Atlanta Hawks, can be sure he won't fade into the oblivion anytime soon. His game is built to age well, and while the NBA done changed, he's changed with it—as needed, for the better.
2. LeBron James, Cleveland Cavaliers
10 of 11
Age: 31
Free-Agency Status: Unrestricted (player option)
Previous Rank: 2
2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 25.1 points, 7.5 points, 6.8 rebounds, 1.4 steals, 0.6 blocks, 51.7 percent shooting, 27.3 PER
LeBron James is underrated. No, not in this slideshow. Underrated in general.
Somehow, due in part to cryptic tweeting, a deteriorating jump shot and old age, we've created this illusion that the four-time MVP is on the decline. And perhaps he is. It's reasonable to say his best days are behind him.
But his decline is better than 99 percent of most players' primes.
This is the ninth time he has recorded a PER greater than 27, which ties him for the most such seasons in NBA history. And this is the eighth time he's eclipsed 25 points, seven rebounds, six assists and one steal per game. Everyone else in NBA history has combined to do the same six times.
Stephen Curry has overtaken James as the MVP darling, and there are a handful of players who might be having better seasons. But James is still one of two, maybe three, stars who can single-handedly be the difference between title contention and a bottom-three record.
Consider the net rating differentials of this season's top seven MVP candidates, as determined by Basketball-Reference's MVP probability tracker (Team net rating with minus Team net rating without):
All these years later, James remains a viable MVP player—a talent who can reinvent an entire franchise on his own. It's unclear if he'll consider taking this talent (sorry) away from the Cleveland Cavaliers in free agency. League officials told ESPN.com's Zach Lowe he might consider it should Cleveland crash and burn in the playoffs.
One thing, though, is for certain: The Cavaliers are lucky to have him—off-court theatrics and all. And they would be nothing without him.
1. Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City Thunder
11 of 11
Age: 27
Free-Agency Status: Unrestricted
Previous Rank: 1
2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 28.1 points, 8.2 rebounds, 5.0 assists, 1.2 blocks, 1.0 steals, 50.4 percent shooting, 28.0 PER
Kevin Durant remains on track to break the Internet this July.
Translation: He is still the best free agent available.
At only 27, he is young enough to spearhead a title contender for the life of his next contract and beyond. More importantly, he is productive enough to make you forget all about those three foot surgeries he had in six months last year.
One other player has ever averaged 28 points, eight rebounds, five assists and one block per game: Larry Bird. That's it.
Through all this, Durant remains one of the faces for efficiency in volume, as his perpetual dalliance with 50/40/90 shooting slashes is still intact. Of every player to ever shoot at least 50 percent from the field overall, 38 percent from three-point range and 89 percent from the foul line, Stephen Curry is the only one to tally a higher usage rate than the 2013-14 MVP is this season.
Some dominoes will fall early in free agency. But most of the league will be waiting on Durant—the best player to enter the offseason fray since LeBron James in 2010.
Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com and accurate leading into games on April 11, unless otherwise noted.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter @danfavale.
