Los Angeles Clippers Must Embrace Wild-Card Factor in NBA Playoffs
The Los Angeles Clippers are an abnormally talented footnote. They have championship-level talent, leadership and coaching, all the while existing acres away from an actual title.
Chris Paul might be having his best year since undergoing knee surgery in 2010. DeAndre Jordan leads the league in field-goal percentage for the fourth season in a row. And Blake Griffin is a top-20 player who could end up on top-five lists if he replicates last year's playoff performance over the next couple of months.
Beyond those three and head coach Doc Rivers, what the Clippers lack is any reason for the general public to believe they can maximize their strengths while camouflaging their weaknesses through four straight playoff rounds.
It’s harsh, but their fate appears to be out of their control. The three teams ahead of Los Angeles in the Western Conference standings—the Golden State Warriors, San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder—are historically great in numerous ways. Defeating any one of them without home-court advantage is a Herculean task by itself. Beating two feels impossible.
And yet the Clippers are as good a No. 4 seed as any in recent memory. They have a top-10 offense and defense and rank fifth overall in net rating, per NBA.com. Of every five-man unit in the league that's played at least 300 minutes, only four have a higher point differential than L.A.'s grouping of Paul, J.J. Redick, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, Paul Pierce and Jordan.
But despite all their success, the Clippers are riddled with question marks and (potentially) fatal flaws relative to their probable playoff competition.
A higher percentage of the Clippers offense revolves around pull-up jumpers than any other team in the league. They survive at the mercy of Jamal Crawford's hot hand and Paul's ability to create slivers of space with his unthinkably precise elbow jumper. For the third year in a row, they rank in the bottom five in drives per game, per SportVU.
They're also dead last in the percentage of their shots that come within 10 feet of the basket, per SportVU. They're the most efficient isolation team in the league, but they also do it more than everyone else (except the Los Angeles Lakers). The Clippers already have trouble getting stops at the end of tight games—with a defensive rating in clutch situations that ranks just outside the bottom 10—and an inefficient offensive strategy.
These are troublesome trends that can lead to unreliable output despite their All-Star-caliber talent. But is there any way the Clippers can cobble together all their tantalizing qualities and pull off a string of upsets that would forever shock the basketball universe?
To do this, L.A. needs to be obvious and unconventional.
First, Rivers must tighten his rotation, point to the heavens and hope Paul, Griffin, Jordan and Redick don't break down under the duress of playing 38 to 42 minutes a night.
That's not a surprise. Their opponents will cancel any meaningful advantage by stretching their own starters.
But the Clippers have been really good when those four are on the court, including a 24-minute sample size against the Warriors and a 29-minute sample size against the Spurs. This team's best really knows how to score, and it'd be wise for Rivers to stagger minutes so that at least two of them are on the floor at all times.
But outside that, when games and series dive deep into the weeds, and two heavyweights have had a chance to sniff out how they want to exploit each other's weaknesses, the Clippers may be in trouble. That's why they need to swing for the fences and experiment with different lineups that haven't been deployed much this season.
One possibility is to put Griffin at center with Pierce at power forward. The potential defensive perils are obvious and terrifying, but while Pierce's shot has fallen off a cliff this season, this duo may still provide offensive upside.
"I think [Pierce] at the 4 has been really good for us at times, especially rebounding and putting his body in the right spot," Rivers said before the Clippers beat the Lakers on Tuesday night. "It's tough to do all that when you're not healthy, obviously, but that's the role we hope for."
Pierce's ankle is an issue, and Griffin is working his way back from a quad injury. But desperate times call for desperate measures.
According to NBAWowy, the Clippers have only utilized this combination for 39 minutes all year long, but for the sake of throwing a curveball, it's worth a try against certain matchups (particularly when the opposing team plays a big who's hardly a post threat—a la Festus Ezeli or Andrew Bogut—so Pierce can't be targeted too badly).
Pierce is 38 years old, but he posted a 67.7 true shooting percentage in last year's postseason. The Clippers need that version of Pierce to emerge as a factor.
Rivers can also blow the dust off a lineup combination he's virtually never used: Jeff Green, Mbah a Moute and Wesley Johnson. These three have their problems, but they're also highly versatile and athletic with varying degrees of individual two-way poise.
Mbah a Moute isn't sure if that specific lineup will work, but he's more than willing to play his part. "I guard usually the other team's best player," he said. "So, it can be a point guard, it can be a center. It really doesn't matter to me."
There's a great chance the Clippers don't get past the second round yet again. If they advance out of the first round, the Warriors will (all but definitely) be their next opponent. That's problematic.
But this is professional sports; games are played for a reason, expectations are regularly defied and miracles aren't impossible.
If the Clippers cut the fat from their rotation, experiment with new combinations, give small ball a chance and pray the Warriors become mortal for a seven-game series, then maybe (maybe) they'll put themselves in a position to pull off the biggest second-round upset in recent NBA history.
Crazier things have definitely happened.
All quotes in this article were obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted. Stats courtesy of NBA.com/Stats unless otherwise noted.
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