NBA Awards Odds 2015-16: Predicting Who Will Take Home the Hardware
The Grammys and Oscars have come and gone, but that doesn't mean awards season is over. It's merely on hiatus until spring, when the NBA starts handing out its own hardware.
There's still vigorous competition for the league's top honors.
Karl-Anthony Towns has been the Association's best rookie from the jump. C.J. McCollum's improvement has garnered plenty of attention as part of the Portland Trail Blazers' resurgence. Kawhi Leonard remains the toughest defender to shake.
And, well, Stephen Curry has all but run away and hid with the Maurice Podoloff Trophy.
With six weeks to go until the end of the 2015-16 regular season, here's a look at how all the races are shaping up, with odds concocted for the top three contenders and those worthy of honorable mention.
Rookie of the Year
Karl-Anthony Towns, PF/C, Minnesota Timberwolves: 2-1
It didn't take long for Karl-Anthony Towns to justify his selection atop the 2016 NBA draft and as a cornerstone of the Timberwolves' future.
In his first game as a pro, Towns tallied 14 points and 12 rebounds during an emotional win over the Lakers. For his encore, the Kentucky product poured in 28 points, 14 rebounds and four blocks to propel Minny to a 17-point pounding of the Denver Nuggets.
Towns hasn't slowed his roll since. He leads all rookies in rebounding (10.3), is neck-and-neck with Jahlil Okafor in scoring (17.3 points to 17.5) and with Kristaps Porzingis in blocks (1.8 to 2.0) and ranks fourth in the league in point-rebound double-doubles (35).
His four straight honors as Western Conference Rookie of the Month all but assure he'll be the league's latest Rookie of the Year at season's end. That award, in turn, means the T-Wolves will have no fewer than two franchise cornerstones, along with Andrew Wiggins, around whom to construct an eventual contender.
Kristaps Porzingis, PF/C, New York Knicks: 7-2
Kristaps Porzingis' pace has slowed somewhat since grabbing headlines in November and December. During the Knicks' current stretch of 15 losses in 18 games, Porzingis has seen his rebounding (6.0 per game) and shooting (41 percent from the field) slip well below his season averages.
That's not out of the ordinary for a 20-year-old whose 7'3" frame sports a spindly 240 pounds. Neither are Porzingis' problems defending the low post.
"The wrestling aspect of basketball at his age is very difficult for him right now. It’s very fatiguing," Knicks interim coach Kurt Rambis said, per Newsday's Anthony Rieber. "That’s the hardest part of all. So that’s an aspect of the game that he’s going to continue to get better at and grow with."
Despite his struggles, Porzingis has put together an impressive debut campaign (14 points, 7.4 rebounds, 2.0 blocks), which should have folks in New York salivating over the future of their forlorn franchise.
Jahlil Okafor, C, Philadelphia 76ers: 10-1
Defense and rebounding are sore spots for Jahlil Okafor, but his bona fides as an offensive fulcrum remain intact.
According to Liberty Ballers' Marc Whittington, Okafor is one of seven rookies since 2000 to top 50 percent in true shooting percentage and 25 percent in usage during the same season. He's one of six ever to shoot better than 50 percent from the field while using up 25 percent of his team's possessions. As Whittington wrote in summary:
"All of this portends good things for Okafor's future. He is scoring efficiently and on high volume, the hardest thing to do in the NBA. Even more impressive, he has been creating his own shots, serving as the focal point for an offense in a way the league hasn't seen from a big man in the 21st Century.
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If Okafor can get the other aspects of his game up to snuff, he'll be an All-Star in short order. For now, though, it's tough to see him being the Rookie of the Year while playing porous defense for the NBA-worst Sixers.
Honorable Mentions
D'Angelo Russell, G, Los Angeles Lakers: 15-1
Myles Turner, PF/C, Indiana Pacers: 20-1
Devin Booker, SG, Phoenix Suns: 30-1
Most Improved Player of the Year
C.J. McCollum, G, Portland Trail Blazers: 4-1
The Most Improved Player award tends to go to someone who makes the most of more playing time—not necessarily a guy who actually got better.
On both counts, though, C.J. McCollum qualifies. His minutes have more than doubled—from 15.7 last season to 34.9 this time around—while his scoring has more than tripled, from 6.8 to 20.8 points.
But McCollum's production isn't just a matter of getting to start next to Damian Lillard in Portland. On a per-36-minute basis, the Lehigh product has been more efficient than ever.
| 2013-14 | 15.2 | 41.6% | 37.5% | 2 |
| 2014-15 | 15.7 | 43.6% | 39.6% | 2.4 |
| 2015-16 | 21.4 | 44.4% | 40.4% | 4.4 |
McCollum has finally gotten to display his complete package of offensive skills for a team in the thick of the playoff race out West.
Blazers general manager Neil Olshey told NBA.com's Ian Thomsen:
"He is one of the better ballhandlers in the league—he gets anywhere he wants to go—and he's got more scoring areas than a lot of guys in his position. For a lot of 2s it's either the 3 or at the rim. But he's got runners, a floater, step-backs, midrange, fallaways. He can score in a lot of different ways, and with all of these pick-and-rolls he's just so patient.
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Patient enough to wait out two years riding the bench before rising to the occasion and keeping Rip City relevant.
Andre Drummond, C, Detroit Pistons: 7-1
Four of the last five MIPs have garnered at least one honor between All-Star and All-NBA. Andre Drummond is poised to nab both.
He already has the All-Star nod down. His work for the Pistons as the league's leading rebounder (15 per game) and double-double machine (51) all but guarantees his selection as one of the NBA's top three centers at season's end.
As USA Today's Jeff Zillgitt detailed, Drummond put in plenty of work over the summer to take his game to the next level:
"Drummond dedicated a majority of his offseason to improving, the first time he made such a thorough commitment. He took classes at Connecticut, where he played a season of college basketball, and spent a majority of his time in Santa Barbara, Calif. …
He also spent important hours at P3—Peak Performance Project, the innovative sports science lab run by Harvard-educated doctor Marcus Elliott in Santa Barbara.
"
As it happens, Drummond, who also pours in 16.7 points per game, is on pace to be the first player to average at least 16 points and 15 boards since 2010-11, when Kevin Love averaged better than 20 and 15—and was named Most Improved for his efforts.
Stephen Curry, G, Golden State Warriors: 10-1
On its face, it's absurd to consider Stephen Curry, the reigning (and soon-to-be two-time) MVP, for this award. But the numbers he's putting up, when compared to his previous work, are too astronomical to ignore in this context.
For one, his scoring is up nearly seven points per game, from 23.8 in 2014-15 to 30.7 this season. He's already broken his own record for threes in a season (286 in 2014-15). With 22 games left on Golden State's schedule, Curry could conceivably become the first player to hit 300 and 400 threes in a campaign.
His field-goal percentage (51.4 percent), three-point percentage (46.5 percent) and true shooting percentage (68.3 percent) are all far and away career bests. The last of those is also tops in the NBA.
And when it comes to all-in-one stats, his player efficiency rating of 32.9 is not only the best in the league and a massive improvement over last year's number (28.0), but would go down as the highest on record, per Basketball-Reference.com.
If this award is fine for guys who go from underutilized to good or from good to potentially great, why shouldn't it be given to someone like Curry for making the leap from already great to historically transformative?
Honorable Mentions
Draymond Green, F, Golden State: 15-1
Kawhi Leonard, SF, San Antonio Spurs: 15-1
Will Barton, SG, Denver Nuggets: 20-1
Sixth Man of the Year
Will Barton, SG, Denver Nuggets: 5-1
In a league where stars seem to shift between starting and coming off the bench with regularity, Will Barton looks more and more like a throwback. Of his 61 appearances for the Denver Nuggets this season, 60 have come as a reserve.
Not that "Will the Thrill" has been limited by his circumstances. After coming on strong for the Nuggets upon arrival at the trade deadline last year, Barton has built on his success to the tune of 15.2 points on 44.1 percent shooting (35.3 percent from three) with 6.1 rebounds and 2.5 assists as a reserve—all career highs.
Like so many sixth men of old, Barton has carried a bench that ranks as one of the NBA's 10 best, per Hoops Stats. He's the new face of instant offense, with the hops to partake in the Slam Dunk Contest, if not quite compete with the likes of Zach LaVine and Aaron Gordon.
Jrue Holiday, PG, New Orleans Pelicans: 8-1
Jrue Holiday probably shouldn't be coming off the bench for the Pelicans, especially now that Tyreke Evans is done for the year. Yet Holiday continues to serve as Norris Cole's backup in New Orleans.
What began as a way of limiting Holiday's minutes and bringing him back slowly from another leg injury has morphed into a calling card for the former All-Star. Among players who've spent the majority of their time riding the pine, Holiday leads the way in points (17.1), assists (6.4) and is second in steals (1.5), per NBA.com.
That doesn't mean Holiday is best used as a reserve—not when head coach Alvin Gentry's starting lineup regularly features Cole, Dante Cunningham and Omer Asik or Kendrick Perkins next to Anthony Davis. But if that's how the Pelicans are going to play Holiday, they have to be pleased with the way he's responded.
Ryan Anderson, PF, New Orleans Pelicans: 10-1
Everything that goes for Holiday applies just as well to Ryan Anderson. He's second to Holiday in scoring (16.2 points) among regular bench denizens while shooting a sturdy 38.3 percent from three-point range.
It's just a shame that he and Holiday don't get to start next to Davis. According to NBA.com, the Pelicans outscore the competition by 8.6 points per 100 possessions when those three play together.
Then again, if Gentry's preference helps Anderson earn a major award before he hits free agency this summer, who would he be to complain?
Honorable Mentions
Enes Kanter, PF/C, Oklahoma City Thunder: 16-1
Jamal Crawford, G, Los Angeles Clippers: 20-1
Dennis Schroder, PG, Atlanta Hawks: 25-1
Defensive Player of the Year
Kawhi Leonard, SF, San Antonio Spurs: 4-1
Kawhi Leonard took home Defensive Player of the Year honors last season and hasn't done anything in 2015-16 to tarnish the notion that he's the best defender in basketball.
It helps that Leonard was blessed with the raw materials to be a wrecking crew on that end, as ESPN.com's Tom Haberstroh wrote:
"Measuring Kawhi Leonard can cause a sports scientist to recalibrate his equipment. Relative to his height, Leonard wields the longest wingspan of any player in the NBA's combine database—4½ inches beyond what's expected of a 6'7" man. His hands are bigger than Anthony Davis', 9¾ inches from the base of his palm to the tip of his middle finger. Of the active players who've gone through the combine since 2010, he has the widest hands on record, at 11¼ inches.
"
With plenty of hard work since then, Leonard has molded himself into Bruce Bowen on steroids. He thrives not on underhanded tactics, but on superb footwork, quickness in all directions, oodles of strength and length and an unmatched nose for the ball.
This season, he's put his talents to use and placed himself third in defensive rating and tied for first in defensive win shares while anchoring the NBA's top-ranked defense.
Draymond Green, F, Golden State Warriors: 6-1
While Leonard may be the best defender on the planet, Draymond Green is clearly the most versatile.
His ability to bang with bigger, stronger foes is the key to Golden State's small-ball "Lineups of Death." When the Warriors faced the Clippers without Andrew Bogut or Festus Ezeli on Feb. 20, Green more than held his own against L.A.'s DeAndre Jordan from start to finish.
Sizing up is but one of Green's gifts; He's just as capable of chasing guards on the perimeter and keeping them out of the paint as he is standing his ground against hulking power forwards and centers.
The newfangled stats back up Green's importance to Golden State's top-five defense. He ranks sixth in defensive win shares, fourth in defensive box plus-minus and second in defensive real plus-minus.
If Green finishes second in DPOY voting again, he'll have a tough time topping his quip after learning of last season's snub.
DeAndre Jordan, C, Los Angeles Clippers: 10-1
Putting DeAndre Jordan third in DPOY voting would give us the same top three that contended for the award last season.
Jordan fits all the traditional criteria of an interior defensive dynamo. He leads the league in defensive rebounding (10.4 per game), ranks second in blocks (2.3 per game) and has limited his foes to 46.4 percent shooting on 8.1 attempts at the rim per game, per NBA.com.
As far as the advanced stats are concerned, he also checks all of those boxes:
| Defensive Rebounds | 10.4 | 1st |
| Defensive Rebound Percentage | 34.3% | 1st |
| Blocks | 2.26 | 2nd |
| Defensive Real Plus-Minus | 6.14 | 4th |
| Defensive Box Plus-Minus | 3.6 | 5th |
| Defensive Win Shares | 4.1 | 3rd |
| Defensive Rating | 97.4 | 5th |
And where Jordan's case was once dragged down by the Los Angeles Clippers' middle-of-the-pack defense, he can now claim to anchor the seventh-stingiest unit in basketball. Despite all of that, Jordan figures to find it difficult to overcome Leonard and Green in the voting…again.
Honorable Mentions
Hassan Whiteside, C, Miami Heat: 20-1
Andre Drummond, C, Detroit Pistons: 20-1
Ian Mahinmi, C, Indiana Pacers: 40-1
Executive of the Year
R.C. Buford, San Antonio Spurs: 2-1
Like Gregg Popovich in the coaching ranks, R.C. Buford has long been the don of NBA executives. The work he put in this past summer for the San Antonio Spurs only strengthened his claim to that title.
Luring LaMarcus Aldridge away from Portland was a huge part of it. So was getting David West on the cheap, though he walked away from a hefty payday in Indiana before Buford said a word.
The beauty of Buford's latest roster mastery extends much deeper than those two All-Stars, though. To bring Aldridge to the Alamo City, Buford had to cut ties with much of his squad's stellar supporting cast, including Tiago Splitter, Cory Joseph, Marco Belinelli and Aron Baynes.
But rather than regress, San Antonio reloaded its bench—the best in the NBA, per Hoops Stats—with a pair of off-the-radar rookies (Boban Marjanovic and Jonathon Simmons) and a couple of well-traveled veterans (Rasual Butler and Andre Miller) while promoting Patty Mills and Kyle Anderson into bigger roles.
Granted, Buford and the Spurs wouldn't have the flexibility to rebuild on the fly without help from their stalwarts, as Stan Van Gundy noted after the Detroit Pistons lost in San Antonio, 97-81, per MLive's David Mayo:
"There's no question when you don't have to pay guys market value it's pretty easy to build depth. The salary cap is hard on most of us trying to build depth.
But with them, when they've got (Tim) Duncan playing below market value, (Tony) Parker playing below market value, (Manu) Ginobili playing below market value, West playing below market value, when those guys all give up money, well then it's easy to add other people and allow you to go out and do what you need to do to build depth. They've done a great job of that.
"
Still, it's one thing to be dealt a great hand. It's another to play those cards to their full advantage.
Neil Olshey, Portland Trail Blazers: 6-1
The Portland Trail Blazers could've taken a dive this season, and few (if any) would've held it against them. They came into this season down five of their top six players from 2014-15, including an All-Star (Aldridge) and a marksman (Wesley Matthews) who signed a $70 million deal in Dallas over the summer.
It looked early on as though the Blazers would be playing to keep their lottery-protected pick out of the Nuggets' hands. A 20-point loss to the Warriors on Jan. 8 dropped Portland to 15-24.
Then came the current deluge, which has resulted in the Blazers battling the Dallas Mavericks for sixth place in the Western Conference. Lillard and McCollum have led the way, but the team wouldn't be here without plenty of help from the young, athletic role players—from Maurice Harkless and Ed Davis to Mason Plumlee, Al-Farouq Aminu and Noah Vonleh—who were brought in to fill the void left by Portland's prized veterans.
And none of them—not the Rain Brothers, not their compatriots—would be in Rip City without Neil Olshey's shrewd foresight. As he told ESPN.com's Kevin Arnovitz:
"The plan was never to tank. Damian and C.J. and three guys from ClubSport could win 20 games. There was never going to be any bottoming out; there was going to be development. Our job was to make sure anyone who was on the floor had a long-term impact on this organization. That's what we've done. We've brought in quality, undervalued players we believed would complement them, and they have begun to thrive in our system and our culture.
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Olshey's midlevel bets have paid off big, to the point where Portland might wind up with the shortest rebuild in NBA history. For that, its general manager deserves plenty of props, if not some hefty hardware.
Masai Ujiri, Toronto Raptors: 10-1
Masai Ujiri's defensive upgrades from the summer have had the desired effect on the court for the Raptors. According to NBA.com, Toronto ranks 11th in defensive efficiency (102.4 points allowed per 100 possessions), up from 23rd (104.8 points allowed per 100 possessions) in 2014-15.
But the additions of DeMarre Carroll, Bismack Biyombo and Cory Joseph have done more than help tighten the Raptors' loose screws. Carroll's extended absence aside, Ujiri's offseason acquisitions have helped to form some of the league's most lethal bench units. According to NBA.com, Toronto outscores its opponents by 7.2 points per 100 possessions whenever Biyombo and Joseph share the floor.
And though Carroll's knee injury has hurt the Raptors on both ends of the floor, Luis Scola, another of Ujiri's offseason acquisitions, has helped to keep them afloat in the interim.
All told, Ujiri's wheeling and dealing has put Toronto in position to potentially steal the No. 1 seed in the East and do much more than (finally) escape the first round of the playoffs.
Honorable Mentions
Danny Ainge, Boston Celtics: 20-1
Larry Bird, Indiana Pacers: 25-1
Stan Van Gundy, Detroit Pistons: 25-1
Coach of the Year
Terry Stotts, Portland Trail Blazers: 6-1
Terry Stotts' Coach of the Year case fits the mold of "Coach X helps Team Y exceed expectations." The Blazers have already overshot the 26.5 wins for which they were pegged in the preseason, thanks in no small part to the work Stotts has done to mold Lillard, McCollum and a cast of relative unknowns into a cohesive whole.
As ESPN.com's Zach Lowe put it: "Portland plays for one another. The Blazers are better than the sum of their parts. That is a product of Stotts' inclusive system and Lillard's encouraging voice."
In a league where Stephen Curry is lapping the field, Lillard may not have a prayer in the MVP race, though he could snag an All-NBA spot. Stotts, on the other hand, is very much in the running for the top honor among his peers.
He's rejiggered the offense around the on-ball skills of Lillard and McCollum, shifted the defense back to more conservative (and, as it happens, more effective) principles. As a result, he has put Portland in position to bring playoff basketball back to Rip City for the third spring running.
Steve Kerr, Golden State Warriors: 8-1
Normally, guiding a team to the best regular-season record in NBA history would be enough to run away with Coach of the Year honors. Even if the Warriors top 72 wins, Steve Kerr might have a tough time taking home that honor.
Not through any fault of his own. A pair of problematic offseason back surgeries forced Kerr to sit out the first 43 games of the season, leaving Luke Walton to do the heavy lifting in his stead. Kerr, though, wasn't completely out of the picture. He still ran practices and regularly consulted with his staff.
In some ways, a COY for Kerr would acknowledge the work he's done since he arrived in Oakland after the 2013-14 season. He finished second in last season's balloting to Mike Budenholzer, whose Atlanta Hawks won 60 games—seven fewer than Kerr's Warriors.
Since then, Atlanta has come back to Earth, while Golden State has soared from great to greater than great, if not (perhaps) the greatest. Kerr deserves credit for that, despite not being able to stalk the sidelines the whole time.
Gregg Popovich, San Antonio Spurs: 10-1
Gregg Popovich is to coaches what Michael Jordan was to players in the 1990s: a perennial pick for his profession's top award by virtue of his excellence in the field.
The job he's done with this year's Spurs is no exception. Despite having no fewer than five new regulars to work into the rotation, including a franchise-changing star in Aldridge, Pop has San Antonio off to the best start in franchise history.
The shift back to a more deliberate, post-oriented style hasn't dragged down the team's margin of victory, which, if it holds around its current 12.5 points per game, would go down as the largest ever.
| Team | Year | Margin of Victory | Record |
| Spurs | 2015-16 | 12.5 points | 52-9 |
| Lakers | 1971-72 | 12.3 points | 69-13 |
| Bulls | 1995-96 | 12.3 points | 72-10 |
| Bucks | 1970-71 | 12.2 points | 66-16 |
Along the way, the new-look Spurs, who recently clinched their 19th straight postseason berth, have strung together some of the organization's most fruitful months, per the San Antonio Express-News' Jeff McDonald: "Over the past three months, the Spurs followed the best December in club history (14-2) with the best start to a new year in club history (10-0 to open January) with the best February in club history (11-1)."
All of which is to say, this is just another year in the life of Pop, the dean of active NBA coaches.
Honorable Mentions
Dwane Casey, Toronto Raptors: 12-1
Brad Stevens, Boston Celtics: 15-1
Rick Carlisle, Dallas Mavericks: 20-1
Most Valuable Player
Stephen Curry, G, Golden State Warriors: 1-2
For the New York Times' Scott Cacciola, describing Curry's brilliance this season requires a vocabulary that stretches well beyond the bounds of basketball: "Jargon usually found on airport bookstore display racks has come to the hardwood, thanks to Curry. He is an outlier. He has caused a tipping point in basketball. The biggest disrupter in sports is on display in—where else?—the Bay Area."
Cacciola went on to compare Curry's impact on the NBA to those felt in the NHL and MLB by Wayne Gretzky and Babe Ruth, respectively. Like those two legends in their respective sports, Curry has expanded the NBA's imagination, making possible what was once thought impossible with each of his record-setting three-pointers.
As far as the award is concerned, Curry isn't just the best player on a historically great team, as he was last season; he's the one who makes it so. According to NBA.com, the Warriors outscore the opposition by 20.1 points when Curry plays but get outscored by 4.2 points per 100 possessions when he sits.
Golden State is anything but a one-man show, what with All-Stars like Green, Bogut, Klay Thompson and Andre Iguodala on the payroll. But Curry makes all of those players immeasurably better, all while rewriting the game's unwritten rulebook.
LeBron James, F, Cleveland Cavaliers: 5-1
For all the talent (and money) flying around in Cleveland, the Cavaliers still lean heavily on LeBron James to drive their drama-filled bus. According to NBA.com, they're nearly 19 points per 100 possessions better with him on the floor compared to when he sits—by far the largest disparity for any of the team's regulars.
This isn't a new phenomenon for the Cavs, either. They're 3-12 in James' absence since he returned to Cleveland in 2014, including a 15-point loss to the Miami Heat and a 14-point flattening in Washington this season. That doesn't say much of Love and Kyrie Irving, the Cavs' two other superstars, but speaks even more highly of how much James means to this team.
"LeBron makes us all better," Love told NBA.com's David Aldridge. "He is our vocal leader. He leads by example. He shows it every single day. We need to fall in line, follow suit, bring what he brings to the table every day."
Which, in King James' case, means MVP-caliber effort to match All-World ability.
Kawhi Leonard, SF, San Antonio Spurs: 10-1
If not for Curry's Warriors, Kawhi Leonard would be the one wearing the "best player on the best team" crown that has adorned the heads of so many MVPs before him.
He leads the Spurs, at a franchise-best 52-9, in points (20.8), three-point percentage (48.4 percent), free-throw attempts (4.2 per game) and steals (1.8 per game) while serving as both the centerpiece of the team's third-ranked offense and the perimeter pest gluing together the league's stingiest defense.
Sober minds can disagree over whether the Spurs are Leonard's team, and they often do.
But there's little doubt that he's the best player on a team that features three future Hall-of-Famers (Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili) and a perennial All-Star (Aldridge). That, in itself, is enough to thrust Leonard into the league's elite, from which MVPs are picked.
Honorable Mentions
Kevin Durant, F, Oklahoma City Thunder: 15-1
Russell Westbrook, G, Oklahoma City Thunder: 15-1
Chris Paul, PG, Los Angeles Clippers: 20-1
Stats courtesy of NBA.com and Basketball Reference unless otherwise noted.
Josh Martin covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@JoshMartinNBA), Instagram and Facebook.
