Power Ranking Each Chicago Bulls Player for NBA's Stretch Run
The Chicago Bulls came up empty at the trade deadline, with the exception of shipping out Kirk Hinrich to the Atlanta Hawks for Justin Holiday and a second-round draft pick. That wasn’t a bad trade, but the one they didn’t make made a lot more noise.
The Sacramento Kings allegedly offered Ben McLemore and Kosta Koufos, as well as a lowering of the protections on their draft pick, for Pau Gasol and Tony Snell, according to Adrian Wojnarowski of The Vertical. However, those protections were owned in part by the Philadelphia 76ers, and they didn’t want to cooperate without getting something out of it. And honestly, why should they?
Following the All-Star break, the Bulls were massacred by nemesis LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers in their first game back—the 13th loss in 18 outings. It looked as if the eighth-place Bulls were headed toward the lottery.
The lack of hope for this season, or anything resembling a front office considering the future, probably made that a low point for the year. With injuries to Joakim Noah, Nikola Mirotic and Jimmy Butler, and with Derrick Rose in and out of the lineup—not to mention Taj Gibson and Gasol both playing dinged-up—it was pretty dark.
But then, a miracle happened.
In the second half of the second game back from the break, head coach Fred Hoiberg’s offense suddenly seemed to click against the Toronto Raptors. The Bulls came back and won, 116-106, thanks to a huge 37-point third quarter. Then they won two more.
And now, here they are, the No. 6 seed out East and riding a three-game winning streak just two-and-a-half games out of third place. Their offensive rating over the small stretch is 119.3, the best in the league, according to NBA.com.
That’s a small, unsustainable sample size against mostly weaker competition, but the eye test shows something different, too. The ball is hopping, and it’s creating good looks the Bulls are knocking down, as evidenced by 88 assists in the three contests. Hoiball is finally working.
It’s against that backdrop these rankings are considered—not just how the Bulls have played but how they should play going forward with changing roles and effectiveness in the offense.
The end of the bench will be on the first slide, the top of the bench on the second and then starters are ordered No. 5 through No. 1.
Bench 10-15
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15. Joakim Noah
Noah would be higher if he were able to play, but he is out for the season since undergoing shoulder surgery. The Bulls’ defensive rating has plunged since he left the lineup.
According to NBA.com, prior to his initial injury on Dec. 21, the Bulls had the second-best defensive rating in the league. Since then, they are 20th.
14. Cameron Bairstow
Even by end-of-the-bench standards, Bairstow is pretty bad. His 2.8 career player efficiency rating is tied for 12th-lowest in NBA history, according to Basketball-Reference.com.
13. Cristiano Felicio
Cristiano Felicio has been marginally effective in the limited minutes he’s gotten, scoring 14 points and grabbing 13 boards in 53 minutes. That’s mostly garbage time, though, and he’s on the roster because the Bulls are a MASH unit.
12. Justin Holiday
Justin Holiday is aptly named since the Bulls got him “just in” before the deadline. He made a three in his debut, but he’s not much better than Felicio or Bairstow. There’s a reason the Hawks had to add a second-round pick to him to pry Hinrich away. Don’t expect Holiday to be a game-changer.
11. Aaron Brooks
When Aaron Brooks' shot is falling, he can be lethal. Sadly, his shot is failing far more often than it’s falling. He’s failed to hit 40 percent from the field in 33 of the 46 games he’s played. And he’s not offering much in the way of defense, either. His minus-2.09 defensive real plus-minus is 68th among point guards, according to ESPN.com.
Bench: 6-10
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10. Tony Snell
If you want a “WHUT?!?!” stat of the day, here’s one for you: Snell leads the Bulls in plus-minus. Chicago is plus-98 with him on the court this year and minus-113 without him. It’s hard to read much behind that, though, with any contribution on the court. When he gets hot, he can sink a three, but he’s a nightmare at the rim. And mostly he has the prettiest misses in the NBA.
9. Bobby Portis
The rookie Bobby Portis has been impressive, albeit somewhat inconsistently. But the early signs are that he will fall more on the “Jimmy Butler” side of the scale of Bulls’ recent draft experiences than the “Marquis Teague” side.
He’s averaging 15.7 points and 10.5 rebounds per 36 minutes. His true shooting percentage is a bit low at 48.9, but he’s showing promise, and there’s plenty of room for the kid. He competes fiercely and should contribute down the stretch.
8. Doug McDermott
Doug McDermott has been earning his McBuckets nickname during the winning streak, averaging 20.0 points with a 78.3 true shooting percentage. Now, that’s clearly unsustainable and a small sample size. But he doesn’t need to sustain that be a contributor.
More importantly, he’s showing increased confidence and aggressiveness as he’s earned more minutes in the rotation. He’s averaging 26.4 minutes over the last 19 games with 10.4 points, a 56.1 effective field-goal percentage and a 57.9 true shooting percentage. If he can sustain efficient production off the bench for the Bulls, he’ll be a valuable piece in the postseason.
7. Nikola Mirotic
Mirotic is out with surgery complications following an appendectomy. K.C. Johnson of the Chicago Tribune reported Mirotic’s process and progress on Feb. 17:
"It was maybe bad luck. It was no one’s mistake. It just could happen. I’m trying to forget that and focus on my recovery. When I went home, I went with pain. They told me after the first surgery, ‘Don’t worry, next day you can go home.’ But I was not feeling good. So I stayed one more night. After two days, I went home and I had all night a high fever. I was still in pain.
The next morning, they make me come back and they find some hematoma inside my stomach and told me they need to do a second surgery. I stayed almost a week there. I lost 17, 18 pounds. Now I’m trying to get that weight back. I recovered some pounds. But it’s still early. Now, finally I can walk and do some stuff in the pool and weight room. I don’t know how many days, weeks (until I play). But as soon as I can; that’s what I want and what the team wants.
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When he returns, Mirotic is better served playing power forward over small forward. His “DRE plus-minus per 36 minutes” (or daily real adjusted plus-minus, a similar concept to RPM developed by Kevin Ferrigan) is plus-1.6 at the 4 and minus-1.6 at the 3, according to NylonCalculus.com. With the offense clicking better, Mirotic can thrive.
6. E’Twaun Moore
E'Twaun Moore keeps getting better as the season goes on. Since Butler went down with a knee injury, Moore has been averaging 12.5 points, 3.3 rebounds and 2.7 assists in 32.3 minutes with a 54.8 effective field-goal percentage.
Taj Gibson praised him to Johnson, saying, “"E'Twaun has given us everything. He guards the best wing. He puts points on the board. He always listens to Coach, never complains. He does the job like a true professional."
An unrestricted free agent this summer, Moore will be getting a bigger paycheck as a result of his fine play.
5. Taj Gibson
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Gibson appears to have stepped into a leadership role, becoming more vocal. Johnson reported:
"Ever since he saw Chris Bosh yelling at his Heat teammates for blowing defensive assignments, Gibson has done more than lead by example. He has become more vocal on the court and in the locker room.
Add to this strong play which featured a career-high seven assists against the Wizards and it's a good combination.
"I had a long dinner talk with Pau (Gasol) and he told me everybody has to do something and put more into it,” Gibson related. "Go back into the gym, put more into it and be more aggressive. I have to be more assertive and call for the ball and be aggressive."
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Gibson put more into it by stepping up as a leader (and note Gasol's behind-the-scenes guidance here as well).
Nick Friedell of ESPN.com and Joe Cowley of the Chicago Sun-Times offered similar takes. Gibson's leadership is at a different level than it's been in years past. He's being more aggressive as a captain, both in the locker room and in practice.
His numbers aren’t that impressive (8.1 points and 7.2 boards in 26.6 minutes per game), and in an age where stretch 4s are all the rage, he’s made only 22 shots more than 16 feet from the rim. But he's filling a needed role that shouldn't be glossed over.
His doing so has come alongside a return to the scrappiness from the Tom Thibodeau era, and that's not a coincidence.
4. Mike Dunleavy Jr.
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Mike Dunleavy Jr. is back after missing the first 49 games of the year recovering from back surgery he had shortly before the preseason. His first few games back were limited, and he averaged just 5.0 points in 14.6 minutes.
Over the last three, however, he’s been getting more time and more looks. He’s scoring 12.0 points per game and has knocked down five of his nine three-point attempts. That’s been a big help in the Bulls finding their offensive mojo.
Cowley opined and quoted Hoiberg on the matter:
"The Dunleavy Effect was on full display in Wednesday’s win over Washington, even with the veteran forward scoring just 14 points. No Jimmy Butler, no Derrick Rose and no Nikola Mirotic, and still a win that registered 26 assists with basically a supporting cast on the floor.
“I think a big part of it, having Mike Dunleavy out there,” coach Fred Hoiberg said of his team stepping up against the Wizards. “He helps the offense so much, whether he’s getting shots up or not, just because he always knows where to be, spaces the floor, he knows what to do against pressure. He’s another guy that can really cut. With he and Doug [McDermott] out there together you got two very good players at reading screens and reading different situations, and curling and flaring. That certainly helps.”
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The Bulls have yet to see what they can do with everyone together, but if there’s a glimmer of hope for them in the postseason, it’s what the court stretching of Dunleavy, McDermott and Mirotic can do alongside the penetrating abilities of Rose and Butler.
3. Pau Gasol
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Pau Gasol, as flawed as he is on defense with his slow-footedness, is a still a valuable component to the Bulls’ success on offense. Both Rose and Butler (when healthy) are thriving with him in the high pick-and-roll.
His shot chart indicates just how lethal Gasol can be on pick-and-pops, knocking down mid-range jumpers near the free-throw line and to the right with regularity and well above the league average. When he doesn’t get a shot, he’s one of the league’s best-passing big men, averaging 3.6 assists per game.
Both Rose (59.5 percentile) and Butler (78.9) are well above the league average as the ball-handler in the pick-and-roll. The Bulls as a team are eighth. And that has a lot to do with the threat of leaving Gasol alone, a threat that Noah or Gibson would never pose.
The Bulls’ offensive rating is 103.0 when he’s on the court and 99.0 when he’s not. Granted, they give up one more point in their defensive rating, but scoring four more makes that worth the sacrifice.
2. Derrick Rose
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If there is a silver lining to the Bulls’ injury situation this year, it’s weirdly Derrick Rose. First, he’s already played 48 games this season, just three shy of last season’s total. And he’s on pace to reach 70, which would be, by far, his most since winning the MVP.
Among last year's starters, only Gasol has missed fewer games than Rose.
Some fans will complain when he sits out with “general soreness,” but keep the big picture in mind. Rose getting through a season mostly healthy and playing well for the playoffs is the ultimate goal.
Even the last couple of times he played in the postseason, last year and 2012, he was coming off of injuries and not in a good rhythm. And there’s been a slow but steady improvement for Rose this year, which is more encouraging than the occasional glimpse of his old self.
Rose’s game score before Dec. 1 was 7.8. In December, it was 8.3. In January, it was 10.6. Through Feb. 25, his monthly split has been 15.1. He’s been averaging 21.9 points, 5.6 rebounds and 6.0 assists in that stretch. And he’s getting 4.9 free throws per game.
And while his true shooting percentage is still below average at 50.8, it’s getting to the point of respectable.
Finally, since the All-Star break, Rose has been averaging 26.0 points on 64.8 percent true shooting.
If he continues to get back to that All-Star-caliber level, the “Slash Brothers” would only take a backseat to Golden State’s “Splash Brothers” for best backcourt in the NBA.
1. Jimmy Butler
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Butler is unquestionably the best player on the team.
He has a strong case for best shooting guard in the NBA.
His RPM is second at the position right now behind James Harden; the two have been swapping the top spot all season. But while Harden is a liability on the defensive end, Butler is one of the best on both sides of the ball.
No one else on the Bulls is remotely close to being able to claim best at his position. The Bulls emphatically need Butler if they are to make any kind of deep postseason run. But they also need him to help the team be more effective, not just be the most effective player on the team.
The struggle is trying to figure out how to work Butler’s strengths in with the offense. He’s at his best in isolation, and that’s not a staple of the Hoiball offense. Cowley asked Hoiberg about this:
"Yeah, Jimmy is obviously a great player and he’s a guy that can flat-out get you a basket. We’re going to need that. Especially a lot of those games early that we lost, when Jimmy when out of the lineup were games we just didn’t close out. Jimmy to date has been our best clutch player, has made a lot of baskets to win those games, so we’ve got those plays in our arsenal and, yeah, it is a balance, but when you’re in the flow of the game for most of the game you’ve got to keep that ball moving from side-to-side, and we’ll run those [isolations] when we need to.
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The Bulls finding a stride with Butler out may help the chemistry when he comes back. Getting Butler, Rose and the offense vibing together would be huge going forward.
Chicago has sporadically shown pieces of what it can be. The team has had flashes of elite defense and elite offense. It's established it has depth. The problems have been consistency, effort and injuries.
However, if—and this is admittedly a big if—the Bulls can get healthy and pull everything together for the postseason, they could legitimately threaten the Cavaliers in a seven-game series.
All stats are obtained from NBA.com or Basketball-Reference.com unless otherwise stated and current through Feb. 24.
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