Updated 2016 Win-Loss Projections for Every NBA Team Entering March
Will the red-hot Portland Trail Blazers continue riding Damian Lillard into the NBA playoffs? Will the Memphis Grizzlies be able to stave off a host of contenders for their postseason berth now that Marc Gasol is out for the year?
How will the jumbled Eastern Conference look at the end of the year? Can the Cleveland Cavaliers manage to win at least 60 games?
Though the majority of the 2015-16 season is now in the rearview mirror, plenty of important questions persist, many of which have emerged since the last set of projections on Jan. 5. We're going to answer all of them here while projecting the records of each of the league's 30 teams, beginning with the Eastern Conference and ending with the half of the NBA that remains stronger.
15. Philadelphia 76ers: 12-70
1 of 30
Record: 8-49
Jan. 5 Projection: 11-71
Now that the luster of the Ish Smith signing and immediate offensive progression has faded, the Philadelphia 76ers aren't getting more competitive.
Jahlil Okafor continues to throw up big numbers in the scoring and rebounding columns, but they're fairly empty stats that can't mask his defensive inefficiency and lack of overall impact. Nerlens Noel remains amazing on the defensive end, but his offensive game won't grow. Robert Covington and Hollis Thompson are inconsistent.
Finding a bright spot without a caveat is an impossible task in Philadelphia.
As a result, the total product still leads to the NBA's worst record. The Sixers are capable of staying in games for a few quarters behind their decent point-preventing work, but the incompetent offense always dooms them. On the season, Philadelphia is scoring just 97.4 points per 100 possessions—4.3 fewer than the Los Angeles Lakers and everyone else in the league.
14. Brooklyn Nets: 23-59
2 of 30
Record: 15-42
Jan. 5 Projection: 20-62
Other than pride, what do the Brooklyn Nets have to play for during the stretch run?
Thanks to the front office's delayed hiring of new general manager Sean Marks, this franchise wasn't able to make any significant moves before the trade deadline. Now, it's stuck with Joe Johnson, Thaddeus Young and Brook Lopez continuing to run the show, even if all three admittedly solid players may not have a part in the long-term plans of the beleaguered organization.
There's no draft pick to tank for, due to the Boston Celtics having unprotected rights to the Nets' top selection. There's no hope of earning a playoff spot after logging only 15 wins in the season's first 57 games.
Pride is all, and that's not enough when Brooklyn is faced with a severe talent deficit against almost every opponent.
13. New York Knicks: 34-48
3 of 30
Record: 24-35
Jan. 5 Projection: 38-44
Forty games into the season, the New York Knicks beat the Boston Celtics to pull back to .500. Everything seemed to be trending in the right direction, and the playoffs were a distinct possibility for one of the most improved teams in the NBA.
Since then, the Knicks have won just four of their last 19 games, and the victories came against the Philadelphia 76ers, Utah Jazz, Phoenix Suns and Minnesota Timberwolves. Only the Jazz win stands out as a relatively impressive outing, but it admittedly came while the Salt Lake City representatives were struggling to stay afloat without Derrick Favors.
Derek Fisher is out as head coach, and he's since been replaced by Kurt Rambis. New York wasn't able to make any deals at the deadline. Signing Jimmer Fredette was a big deal—not because of his on-court ability, but because of his knack for reinvigorating fans during a season that's quickly taken a depressing turn.
But at least Kristaps Porzingis keeps thriving.
The rookie big man's shooting slump is now nothing more than a distant memory. He's averaged 17.3 points, 6.0 rebounds and 2.3 blocks during his last six games, shooting 46.9 percent from the field and 34.4 percent from beyond the arc. Were it not for his foul-riddled performance against the Timberwolves last Saturday, his recent form would seem even more impressive.
12. Milwaukee Bucks: 35-47
4 of 30
Record: 24-33
Jan. 5 Projection: 32-50
"Giannis [Antetokounmpo], we all trust Giannis. [He] is a playmaker, as much as a scorer, as much as rebounder. He has vision," Milwaukee Bucks head coach Jason Kidd told the Associated Press' Genaro C. Armas (via NBA.com) on Monday after his young positionless player recorded a triple-double against the Los Angeles Lakers.
Since a breakout performance led to a victory over the Chicago Bulls on Jan. 12, Antetokounmpo has been on an absolute tear. He's averaged 18.7 points, 8.7 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 1.2 steals and 1.5 blocks while shooting 52.9 percent from the field, and his ball-handling responsibilities have slowly increased in the Milwaukee schemes.
Next to him, Jabari Parker has also begun making strides.
The Duke product has been a nonfactor from the perimeter, but he's learning how to create his own shots and came out of the All-Star break dropping 23 points against the Charlotte Hornets and 28 against the Atlanta Hawks. Though defense is still very much a work in progress, that's to be expected.
Behind those two young men, there's reason for optimism in Brewtown.
However, it's long-term optimism, as the admittedly improved Bucks are still struggling to beat quality opponents on a consistent basis. Even in their last 10 games, they've been outscored by 2.7 points per 100 possessions while posting a 4-6 record.
11. Orlando Magic: 36-46
5 of 30
Record: 25-30
Jan. 5 Projection: 39-43
Losing Channing Frye and Tobias Harris won't help the Orlando Magic, even if they replaced the two departed forwards by adding Brandon Jennings and Ersan Ilyasova. This organization is still playing for the future, unlocking a bigger role for Aaron Gordon and seeing what happens to the athletic power forward when he spends more time on the court.
Gordon may have the occasional outstanding performance—for example, his showing against the Dallas Mavericks last Friday, when he helped earn an overtime win by holding Dirk Nowitzki to 4-of-16 shooting. But the rough outings will be plentiful, especially because his offensive game is anything but consistent.
Inconsistent is also the best way to describe the Magic.
This is a team with so much young talent that it can hang with better outfits on any given night, so long as myriad players are clicking. However, it's also prone to struggling against weaker matchups and lacks the focus necessary to assert itself as a legitimate playoff contender in the Eastern Conference.
Five contests below .500, the Magic should now be playing more for developmental purposes than with hopes of closing the four-game deficit separating them from the No. 8 seed.
10. Washington Wizards: 41-41
6 of 30
Record: 26-30
Jan. 5 Projection: 41-41
Sure, the Washington Wizards have a weak schedule in front of them and could benefit from a motivated Markieff Morris shoring up the frontcourt rotation. But this team still hasn't demonstrated enough cohesiveness to get above .500, much less to do so quickly enough that it could still make the Eastern Conference playoffs.
In its last 10 games, Washington has outscored opponents by a meager 1.2 points per 100 possessions. During the last five, the net rating stands at 4.3, but the Wizards have played a slate of foes that included exactly zero true contenders.
Washington isn't showing signs of dominance, which is particularly troubling when John Wall is playing so well.
Highlighted by his triple-double against the New Orleans Pelicans on Tuesday, the dynamic point guard has averaged 20.8 points, 6.5 rebounds and 9.8 assists while knocking down his three-point attempts at a 41.5 percent clip over the last 10 outings. It's difficult to foresee him playing that much better.
And yet, that's exactly what the Wizards need to keep their slim playoff dreams alive.
9. Detroit Pistons: 41-41
7 of 30
Record: 29-29
Jan. 5 Projection: 43-39
The Detroit Pistons don't have a remaining schedule conducive to success.
That's doubly true when you consider the fact that they were mired in a prolonged slump before breaking through against the Cleveland Cavaliers on Monday. Prior to that outing, they'd dropped eight of their last 10 contests.
Now, the Pistons are forced to play quite a few quality opponents before the regular season draws to a close. Of their 24 remaining games, 14 come against teams projected as playoff squads here.
That's not good news for a team attempting to incorporate Tobias Harris into a major role, as it will have to stave off any growing pains. It's even worse for the Pistons bench, which is terrifyingly thin after the trade for Marcus Thornton and Donatas Motiejunas failed to go through and left Detroit with even less depth.
With Anthony Tolliver, Stanley Johnson, Jodie Meeks and Spencer Dinwiddie all injured, the primary backups at each position are likely Steve Blake, Darrun Hilliard, Reggie Bullock, Justin Harper and Aron Baynes.
That's less than ideal for a team hunting the No. 8 seed and starting the stretch run with ground to make up.
8. Chicago Bulls: 42-40
8 of 30
Record: 30-26
Jan. 5 Projection: 46-36
So much depends on when Jimmy Butler returns.
"As far as Jimmy is concerned, he's another guy that's making progress," Chicago Bulls head coach Fred Hoiberg recently told Joe Cowley of the Chicago Sun-Times. "He's feeling a lot better, and hopefully we’ll get him out there [this week] to at least test him to see if he can explode off that leg."
The best estimates still have Butler out for another two to three weeks, which would be terrible news for a Chicago team that is already struggling to win games on a consistent basis. We knew regression was coming earlier in the season, but this overachieving squad will underachieve if he can't return in a reasonable amount of time.
As well as Pau Gasol is playing, there's only so much he can do. After all, Chicago is being outscored by 1.6 points per 100 possessions when the All-Star 2-guard doesn't play, and that doesn't bode well for a unit barely remaining above .500.
The Bulls have to be thanking their lucky stars they still possess a two-game cushion in the playoff hunt.
7. Charlotte Hornets: 43-39
9 of 30
Record: 29-27
Jan. 5 Projection: 40-42
It remains unbelievable that the Charlotte Hornets have managed to overcome not only the injuries to Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, but also the maladies that have kept Al Jefferson out for a prolonged portion of the 2015-16 campaign. Now, everyone but Kidd-Gilchrist and Spencer Hawes is healthy, and that's great news for a team that's consistently overcome the odds.
Why? Look no further than internal improvement.
Kemba Walker has blossomed into a point guard who deserved serious All-Star consideration. Cody Zeller is becoming a legitimate frontcourt piece. Marvin Williams has developed into a threatening stretch 4. Jeremy Lin deserves some love in the Sixth Man of the Year race.
And the news gets better. The schedule, as Hornets.com's Sam Perley explains, "sets up favorably if the team hopes to at the very least hang on to the eighth and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference."
Kidd-Gilchrist's first shoulder injury, which was originally going to hold him out for the entire season, was supposed to doom the Hornets. Now that he's gone down once more, we know better than to foretell doom and gloom.
6. Miami Heat: 44-38
10 of 30
Record: 32-25
Jan. 5 Projection: 50-32
"He gets on the court, shoots [a few] jump shots and gets a little sweat in," Miami Heat teammate Dwyane Wade said about Chris Bosh, per ESPN.com's Michael Wallace. "He's still a big part of this team. As I've said before, he's around, and he's in good spirits."
Bosh's medical condition remains mysterious, though we can't help but be reminded of the life-threatening blood clots that knocked him out of action after last year's All-Star break. Getting healthy needs to be the big man's first priority, and we wish him nothing but the best.
For what it's worth, the latest report from The Vertical's Adrian Wojnarowski has doctors pushing Bosh to sit out for the rest of the season.
From a basketball perspective, the Heat also need Bosh. And without any clue if he'll return to action, it's tough to have much confidence in this team remaining near the top of the Eastern Conference.
Miami has managed to overcome his absence—as well as injuries to way too many other players—and win three of its first four games after the All-Star break, only losing a close battle to the defending champions. But reality is about to set in, and it doesn't bode well for a team that needs the floor-spacing work and steadiness the All-Star provides.
Even the Heat's current record is quite misleading. Though their number of wins and losses leaves them trailing only the Cleveland Cavaliers, Toronto Raptors and Boston Celtics, Basketball-Reference.com's simple rating system (SRS), which looks only at margin of victory and strength of schedule, shows they've played like the No. 8 team in the East.
Given Bosh's absence, the complete dearth of backup guards other than Josh Richardson and Gerald Green and natural regression to the mean, it's tough to assume this squad will earn home-court advantage for the first round of the playoffs.
5. Atlanta Hawks: 45-37
11 of 30
Record: 31-27
Jan. 5 Projection: 47-35
Precious few moments during the 2015-16 season have reminded the Atlanta Hawks of their 2014-15 exploits. But one of them came recently, when the team rode a 36-18 third quarter to come back against the Golden State Warriors on Monday.
Sure, the Hawks ultimately lost.
But behind Dennis Schroder's tenacious defense and confidence as a scorer, Atlanta looked like a team capable of blitzing past virtually anyone in its path. And that was a welcome change for a bunch that has often failed to inspire confidence or display a ceiling reminiscent of last year's 60 wins.
It doesn't change much. Kyle Korver is still losing his battle with Father Time while Kent Bazemore regresses, Jeff Teague doesn't hit the runners that always seemed to go down in 2014-15 and the depth of head coach Mike Budenholzer's team is gradually thinning out.
But these Hawks still can't be overlooked, and they remain right in the thick of the race for No. 3 in the Eastern Conference. They won't get there unless the third-quarter effort against the defending champions becomes contagious, but they won't miss by much.
4. Indiana Pacers: 45-37
12 of 30
Record: 31-26
Jan. 5 Projection: 49-33
A missed free throw from Monta Ellis prevented the Indiana Pacers from winning in regulation and ultimately led to an overtime loss at the hands of the Miami Heat. Were it not for that fateful misfire, this team would be sitting at 32-25 with the No. 4 seed in the East.
But the past is the past, and the Pacers can only look ahead...to a remarkably easy schedule.
Of the Pacers' 25 remaining games, just 13 come against teams we're projecting as playoff squads, and eight of those outings will be played in front of the hometown faithful at Bankers Life Fieldhouse. Better yet, the Pacers only have one game apiece against the San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder while avoiding the other two leading contenders from the Western Conference.
Everything is setting up nicely for a run at home-court advantage, including the recent play of Paul George.
Though his shot disappeared during the middle portion of this campaign, he's remembered how to find twine from the perimeter. Over the 10 games prior to his 0-of-7 stinker against the New York Knicks, the forward had drilled 40.3 percent of his treys while taking 6.7 per contest.
Between his return to form and the progression of the Ian Mahinmi-Myles Turner frontcourt, there's reason for optimism in Indiana.
3. Boston Celtics: 47-35
13 of 30
Record: 33-25
Jan. 5 Projection: 48-34
According to SRS, the Boston Celtics have played like the seventh-best team in basketball, trailing only the San Antonio Spurs, Golden State Warriors, Oklahoma City Thunder, Cleveland Cavaliers, Los Angeles Clippers and Toronto Raptors. They may not have a superstar on the roster, but their blend of unselfish play and two-way efficiency is undoubtedly a recipe for success.
Boston ranks No. 9 in offensive rating, scoring 106.7 points per 100 possessions. Meanwhile, the team's 102.7 defensive rating leaves it trailing just the Atlanta Hawks, Indiana Pacers and Spurs. That combination puts them in some impressive company, as the Clippers, Cavaliers, Warriors and Spurs are the only other teams that can boast top-nine spots on both ends of the court.
So again, the Celtics may not have a superstar on the roster, even if Isaiah Thomas played in this year's All-Star Game. It also doesn't matter, as Jae Crowder recently explained to ESPN.com's Chris Forsberg:
"But there’s a lot of talk about we need a superstar and stuff like that. But all five guys on the court are so locked in and so engaged that we’re one superstar. We all play together. It’s a scary thing when a team don’t know who to match up to, whose night it’s going to be on the offensive end. And, defensively, we all fight together and play together. It’s a scary approach.
"
Nothing Crowder said is objectively wrong, but I'd still like to disagree.
The Celtics do have a superstar. Head coach Brad Stevens just isn't technically on the roster.
2. Toronto Raptors: 52-30
14 of 30
Record: 38-18
Jan. 5 Projection: 47-35
Kyle Lowry just keeps going.
Since the start of February, he's averaged 21.4 points, 4.3 rebounds and 6.7 assists for the Toronto Raptors while shooting 46.6 percent from the field and 39.7 percent from three-point territory. Those are undoubtedly All-Star numbers, and it stands to reason that the point guard remains No. 8 on Basketball-Reference.com's MVP Award Tracker, which is based entirely on historical correlations between certain factors and actual voting.
With Lowry on the floor, the Raptors are outscoring the opposition by 6.8 points per 100 possessions. Without him, they're on the wrong end of a minus-0.5 net rating.
Thank goodness for that extra offseason conditioning, because the floor general is so insanely important to a legitimate contender in the Eastern Conference on both ends of the floor. And with no reason to expect a decline, he'll continue filling that role for the rest of the regular season.
Toronto may not get to No. 1, but the team also isn't going to fall down in the standings. Not only have the Raptors proved themselves as the second-best squad in their half of the NBA, but they have a six-game head start on all the other contenders.
1. Cleveland Cavaliers: 60-22
15 of 30
Record: 41-15
Jan. 5 Projection: 60-22
When Kyrie Irving, LeBron James and Kevin Love have all shared the floor, the Cleveland Cavaliers have torched the opposition, outscoring them by a gaudy 10.8 points per 100 possessions. For the sake of comparison, the only two squads with a double-digit net rating this season are the San Antonio Spurs (13.2) and Golden State Warriors (11.3).
As long as each member of the Big Three is healthy, the Cavs are primed to succeed. Adding a quality contributor such as Channing Frye at the deadline will only help, as will the continued strong play of Tristan Thompson, Matthew Dellavedova and the other key rotation members in Northeast Ohio.
Through their first 56 games, the Cavaliers are on pace to win 60 by the end of the year, and that's neither an unrealistically high or low mark. They overachieved a bit at the beginning of the season, but this squad has rolled when its most vital members are all on the court.
Having anyone else atop the East would be silly.
15. Los Angeles Lakers: 16-66
16 of 30
Record: 11-48
Jan. 5 Projection: 20-62
Why is Kobe Bryant giving a thumbs-up?
I'm just spitballing here, but it could be because the Los Angeles Lakers are nearly guaranteed to hold on to their first-round pick in 2016. Though the pingpong balls could always produce a wonky result, the Lakers are a virtual lock to have one of the two worst records in the Association.
A hot streak could push them ahead of the Phoenix Suns or Brooklyn Nets, but there's not much to indicate that's coming. And if it doesn't, they'll likely finish with the second-worst win-loss mark—better than only the Philadelphia 76ers.
Head coach Byron Scott's Lakers still have no idea how to play defense.
They're allowing a ridiculous 111.6 points per 100 possessions, which is easily the worst mark in the league. In fact, the No. 29 Minnesota Timberwolves are posting a defensive rating that's closer to the No. 20 Denver Nuggets than the team directly behind them in the standings.
Let's dig deeper. Compared to the league average, Los Angeles has an adjusted defensive efficiency of 94.8. According to my databases, that puts them on pace to finish ahead of just 29 teams throughout all of NBA history.
Oh, and over their last 10 games, the Lakers' defensive rating has gone up to 116.9. During the last five, it stands at 128.1.
They're only getting worse.
14. Phoenix Suns: 19-63
17 of 30
Record: 14-43
Jan. 5 Projection: 23-59
Without Eric Bledsoe and with Brandon Knight still out indefinitely, the Phoenix Suns have fallen apart. This shouldn't be surprising, but it's tough to win games in the NBA when your backcourt rotation is composed of Archie Goodwin, Devin Booker, Sonny Weems, Ronnie Price and Phil Pressey.
To his credit, Booker has impressed during his rookie season. But both player efficiency rating and box plus/minus indicate he's still been a below-average player throughout the league, which isn't exactly what you want out of your bright spot.
This free-fall isn't ending anytime soon, even if all the injured forwards and centers suddenly return to the court.
The 2015-16 season has been a disaster for the Suns, leading to the firing of former head coach Jeff Hornacek, the injuries to the promising guards and the divorce with Markieff Morris. But at least the front office squeezed a first-round pick out of the Washington Wizards for the disgruntled forward, so it's not all bad.
When this team has played its final game, everyone should—and probably will—breathe a deep sign of relief.
13. Minnesota Timberwolves: 30-52
18 of 30
Record: 18-40
Jan. 5 Projection: 29-53
Head coach Sam Mitchell is figuring things out, even if he's still not putting all of his players in advantageous situations.
The Minnesota Timberwolves as a whole need to shoot fewer mid-range jumpers and take more threes, but at least Zach LaVine is starting to line up as a shooting guard. He's found far more success next to Ricky Rubio, and lately, he's beginning to produce positive results when paired up with Andrew Wiggins.
Couple that with the continued development of Karl-Anthony Towns, and it's not hard to see why the Wolves will keep improving as the season progresses. They may be on pace to win just 26 games, but that should be considered the floor projection.
If Towns keeps performing like he has in recent outings, Minnesota should shatter that mark. In his last dozen contests, the presumptive Rookie of the Year favorite is averaging 21.8 points, 11.8 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 0.5 steals and 2.0 blocks while shooting 53.6 percent from the field.
With a player like that, you almost have to win at least 30 games.
12. Denver Nuggets: 31-51
19 of 30
Record: 23-35
Jan. 5 Projection: 28-54
The Denver Nuggets have never wavered from the idea that they'd let their young contributors learn on the job.
Emmanuel Mudiay has struggled immensely during his rookie season—constantly turning the ball over, playing the part of turnstile on defense and struggling to find the bottom of the net when he shoots. But head coach Mike Malone continues to deploy him, allowing him to make slight improvements as he gains experience at the NBA level.
Ditto for the many other young players on the roster—Will Barton, Gary Harris, Nikola Jokic, Jusuf Nurkic and Joffrey Lauvergne.
The Nuggets are only gaining chemistry and confidence as the season progresses. While it may be too late for them to make a legitimate run at a playoff spot, they'll improve their win pace and keep playing hard during the stretch run.
11. Sacramento Kings: 33-49
20 of 30
Record: 24-32
Jan. 5 Projection: 36-46
"Not many teams have an answer for him," Sacramento Kings head coach George Karl said about DeMarcus Cousins after he torched the Denver Nuggets for the second time in quick succession, per NBA.com's Jason Wise. "He is a difficult cover for most teams in the league. He figured out how to move himself around the court rather than just stay in one stationary spot."
During the outing in question, Cousins recorded 39 points and nine rebounds for the Kings, and it was his third consecutive monster performance. It came on the heels of 37 points and 20 rebounds against the Nuggets four nights earlier and a 28-point, 12-board performance against the Philadelphia 76ers right before the All-Star break.
But what happens when the Kings have to play a contender? Even with Cousins lighting the world on fire, Sacramento won those three games against bottom-feeding teams by a combined 14 points.
A win is a win, but the victories won't continue stacking up at this rate. Sacramento still has a deeply flawed roster around Cousins, and that's not changing anytime soon.
The playoff drought will continue.
10. New Orleans Pelicans: 34-48
21 of 30
Record: 22-34
Jan. 5 Projection: 33-49
At some point, you have to feel bad for Anthony Davis.
During his historic 59-point, 20-rebound outing against the Detroit Pistons, the superstar was surrounded by quite the lackluster group of teammates. Joining him in the starting lineup were Omer Asik, Norris Cole, Dante Cunningham and Bryce Dejean-Jones. Off the bench came Jrue Holiday, Alonzo Gee, Ryan Anderson, Toney Douglas, Alexis Ajinca and Kendrick Perkins.
Ouch. That is not the kind of lineup you want, unless your goal is to squander the talents of your best player.
And it gets worse. Cole left the follow-up game against the Washington Wizards with illness. Asik suffered a sprained right ankle that will keep him out for at least two weeks.
Injuries have utterly decimated the Pelicans, and we're now forced to enjoy Davis while putting up with a shell of a rotation around him.
9. Houston Rockets: 40-42
22 of 30
Record: 28-29
Jan. 5 Projection: 42-40
The second half of the season was always going to be rough for a team with apparent chemistry concerns. But as Kevin Draper explained for Deadspin after the trade sending Donatas Motiejunas and Marcus Thornton to the Detroit Pistons was voided, the situation is getting even worse:
"The Rockets are royally screwed. Assuming they make the playoffs this season, they’ll lose their first-round pick to Denver, and now won’t have the Pistons’ to make up for it. Thornton’s and Motiejunas’s salaries are back on the books, pushing the Rockets over the luxury tax line. Not only do they now have to pay the luxury tax, they also won’t get luxury tax payouts from other teams, and are one season closer to triggering the extremely punitive repeater payments. They have a player whose back is so injured that even a team that coveted him wouldn’t take him. And finally, one of the league’s more unstable locker rooms now has two players who might sulk because they were legitimately traded, and another three (Dwight Howard, Ty Lawson, Patrick Beverley) who were prominently shopped.
"
But let's not assume the Houston Rockets will make the playoffs.
They may have incredible amounts of talent on the roster, but this team still doesn't seem to like playing together, refuses to communicate on either end of the floor and has given zero evidence that a second-half surge is coming.
With only three victories in their last 10 games, the Rockets would be lucky to get back to .500. And even that would leave them in nothing more than a tiebreaker for the No. 8 seed.
8. Dallas Mavericks: 41-41
23 of 30
Record: 30-28
Jan. 5 Projection: 44-38
Take a gander at how the Dallas Mavericks have fared during each month of the season:
That's not an ideal three-month trend for a team filled with veterans and a relative lack of depth. It's tough to imagine Dirk Nowitzki, Deron Williams and the other elderly contributors on the Dallas roster suddenly making drastic improvements during the stretch run.
The Mavericks overachieved during the first half of the season, thanks in large part to the coaching brilliance of Rick Carlisle. They were always bound to regress a bit, but at least they built up enough of a cushion in the standings that they'll be able to stave off the other playoff contenders.
7. Portland Trail Blazers: 42-40
24 of 30
Record: 30-27
Jan. 5 Projection: 38-44
As Joe Freeman wrote for the Oregonian while breaking down the validity of the Portland Trail Blazers' current hot streak, the remaining portion of the season could pose some serious problems:
"Over the final 28 games, the Blazers would face a daunting schedule that included 17 teams with winning records, 16 teams bound for the playoffs and 14 games on the road. The Warriors were on the schedule three times. The Oklahoma City Thunder, Dallas Mavericks and Boston Celtics were on tap twice each. There was a visit to San Antonio and noteworthy matchups against most of the teams fighting for the playoffs in the Western Conference, including the Houston Rockets, Jazz and Sacramento Kings. From Feb. 27 through March 24, the Blazers will play 12 of 15 games on the road.
For a team that spent two-thirds of the season struggling against winning teams and building an 11-16 record on the road, it seemed like a back-breaking proposition for a playoff push.
"
But at the same time, should we start doubting a young squad that has continuously managed to overcome nearly every obstacle and doubt standing in its way?
Damian Lillard has been magnificent recently, highlighted by his career outing in a surprise victory over the Golden State Warriors. C.J. McCollum keeps improving on the offensive end. Mason Plumlee is becoming one of the league's more impactful centers. The role players understand their roles and, more importantly, are willing to fill them.
This is a season that should result in some significant Coach of the Year love for Terry Stotts, and the magical run shouldn't come to an end in the near future. Tough schedule or not, this team has heart, chemistry and talent.
And it's worth noting my FATS model (based on historical similarities and explained in full here) has it playing better basketball than all but six squads in the Western Conference.
6. Utah Jazz: 44-38
25 of 30
Record: 28-28
Jan. 5 Projection: 40-42
Get ready for some deja vu.
Last year, the Utah Jazz rode an impenetrable defense to a gaudy second-half record, even if it didn't result in a playoff berth. This season, a slight variation of the story will lead to some postseason basketball, though injuries early in the campaign may prevent the Jazz from rising high enough to avoid a first-round matchup with a Western Conference juggernaut.
Over the team's last dozen games, the Jazz have scored 109.9 points per 100 possessions while allowing just 103.8. The former would be the No. 4 mark in the NBA over the course of a full season, behind only the Golden State Warriors, Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs. The latter would check in at No. 9.
But there are still a few reasons to be concerned about Utah, and that's why we can't project them to rise too far above their .500 record.
First, Gordon Hayward is carrying a tremendous offensive load, and the shaky play at point guard is the culprit. Unless one of Trey Burke, Raul Neto or Shelvin Mack becomes a reliable option, it's tough for that incredible offensive rating to avoid regression.
Second, this team has blown plenty of big leads, proving itself incapable of staving off opponents late in the ballgame. It's a young group of impressive players, and growing pains aren't just likely; they're unavoidable.
5. Memphis Grizzlies: 45-37
26 of 30
Record: 33-23
Jan. 5 Projection: 35-47
The Memphis Grizzlies have continued beating bad teams and losing to good ones, but they're still going to regress by the end of the season. Expecting them to maintain a win-loss rate that puts them on pace to post a 48-34 record is just unrealistic, especially considering Marc Gasol is sidelined for the year.
Memphis is being outscored on the season by 0.9 points per 100 possessions, thanks to the league's No. 17 offensive rating and No. 16 defensive rating. None of that is conducive to success, even if the veterans have been able to grit out plenty of wins during the first two-thirds of the campaign.
Now, the roster is worse and regression has yet to hit.
Jeff Green is gone to the Los Angeles Clippers. Lance Stephenson is in town, which isn't necessarily a positive. Most importantly, Gasol has been ruled out for the season after undergoing surgery to repair the fracture of the navicular bone in his right foot.
The Grizzlies have already won too many games to worry about falling out of the playoff picture. Nevertheless, they may not be breathing easy during the last few weeks of the season.
4. Los Angeles Clippers: 55-27
27 of 30
Record: 37-20
Jan. 5 Projection: 50-32
As long as Chris Paul and DeAndre Jordan continue balling, the Los Angeles Clippers have nothing to worry about. Any fears about how this team would perform without Blake Griffin have now been firmly assuaged by their success in his absence.
Since Griffin last suited up on Christmas Day, Paul has averaged 21.1 points, 4.4 rebounds, 10.0 assists and 2.2 steals while shooting 46 percent from the field, 39.6 percent from beyond the arc and 88 percent from the charity stripe. Meanwhile, Jordan has posted 13.6 points, 15.3 rebounds and 2.3 blocks during his typical outing while knocking down 68 percent of his looks.
That combination is excellent, and it's only aided by the sharpshooting efforts of J.J. Redick and the improved play of the bench. Now, with Jeff Green aboard, the ceiling in Los Angeles should rise even higher.
If anything, it's only the return of Griffin that could initially hold this team back, as it will take some adjusting when the ball-dominating power forward is available once more. Outside of the top three teams in the West and the Cleveland Cavaliers in the East, there's no one that should beat these Clippers in their current form.
3. Oklahoma City Thunder: 58-24
28 of 30
Record: 41-16
Jan. 5 Projection: 57-25
The Oklahoma City Thunder aren't going anywhere—until Kevin Durant has to make a free-agency decision, though that's a discussion for another time and place.
Behind a decent defense and a historically excellent offense, OKC is continuing to storm by most every opponent on the schedule. Don't worry about the two-game losing streak at the hands of the Cleveland Cavaliers and Indiana Pacers, even if both dropped games came within the friendly confines of Chesapeake Energy Arena.
Before those losses, the Thunder had won seven games in eight attempts, with the lone failed effort coming against the Golden State Warriors. Looking back even further, they'd gone 14-2 since a mid-January loss to the Portland Trail Blazers.
This team can catch fire and beat anyone, even if it's prone to the occasional off night. It's that caveat that keeps the Thunder from rising up to the same tier as the two top squads in the Western Conference, though it hasn't prevented them from becoming the class of the second tier.
2. San Antonio Spurs: 68-14
29 of 30
Record: 48-9
Jan. 5 Projection: 70-12
Does it even matter who plays for the San Antonio Spurs these days?
When Tim Duncan is out of the lineup, LaMarcus Aldridge starts playing like an All-Star and taking over games. When Kawhi Leonard has missed time, Kyle Anderson steps into the starting five and looks like a future star.
So don't point to Manu Ginobili's recovery from testicular surgery as evidence the Spurs will fall back to earth. Circular as this reasoning may be, they won't because they're the Spurs. No matter who's in the lineup, they still manage to emerge victorious with ridiculous frequency.
Since their egg on Christmas Day, the Spurs have only lost to three teams—the Golden State Warriors on Jan. 25, the Cleveland Cavaliers five days later and the Los Angeles Clippers last Thursday. That's it, and it's not like any of those dropped outings are embarrassing.
Nine losses in 57 games may be too many to continue the quest for 70 wins, but San Antonio should at least get close—even if head coach Gregg Popovich begins resting his stars more frequently as it becomes increasingly clear he's not going to catch the Dubs.
1. Golden State Warriors: 74-8
30 of 30
Record: 51-5
Jan. 5 Projection: 74-8
The Golden State Warriors may as well be a lock for the No. 1 seed and top overall record in the NBA, but that's no longer the primary goal. Beating the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls and establishing a new all-time record for most wins in a single season is the challenge, and it's a feat this dominant bunch could absolutely achieve.
Unexpectedly dropping a game to the Portland Trail Blazers won't help, but Golden State remains on pace to break past the 72-10 barrier established by Michael Jordan and Co. With 51 wins in 56 attempts, they're tracking toward 75 victories this late in the season, though that admittedly doesn't factor in their two remaining contests with the Oklahoma City Thunder and three against the San Antonio Spurs.
Still, what evidence do we have that the Warriors will lose six more times?
There simply isn't any, as this team has trounced the best teams on the schedule and successfully hyped itself up against every dangerous opponent. The five losses can almost all be explained away, though the intent here isn't to take credit away from teams that played to the best of their abilities:
- Dec. 12 against the Milwaukee Bucks: Harrison Barnes did not play
- Dec. 30 against the Dallas Mavericks: Stephen Curry did not play
- Jan. 13 against the Denver Nuggets: Draymond Green did not play
- Jan. 16 against the Detroit Pistons: No notable absences
- Feb. 19 against the Portland Trail Blazers: No notable absences, though it's tough to replicate a 51-point masterpiece from Damian Lillard
Festus Ezeli is the only member of the rotation out of the lineup at this time, and the effect of his absence should be partially mitigated by the presence of the newly signed Anderson Varejao.
Draw your own conclusions.
Adam Fromal covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter @fromal09.
Unless otherwise indicated, all stats are from Basketball-Reference.com or Adam Fromal's own databases and are current heading into Feb. 25's games.
