2016 NBA Free Agents Playing Their Way into Unexpectedly Large Paydays
The 2015-16 NBA season is a great time to play for a new contract.
Just ask some of the Association's impending free agents.
Actually, ask just about any of the league's soon-to-be free agents. As the NBA prepares for an unprecedented salary-cap spike, it's not just the max-contract locks, such as Andre Drummond and Kevin Durant, who are playing for massive paycheck gains. It's everyone. And a select few are capitalizing on the seemingly limitless financial possibilities way more than expected.
We're not talking about fringe earners who are validating even the faintest suspicions. Hassan Whiteside bank-breaking talk was on the table long before 2015-16 tipped off. The same goes for Bradley Beal, DeMar DeRozan and anyone else whose future paydays were even remotely predictable.
The real overachievers are those who aren't supposed to be here, in this conversation, serving as talking points at all. They are surprisingly productive and more valuable to their incumbent teams than initially anticipated.
And they are all gearing up to sign lucrative contracts that, even against an exploding salary cap, were never once considered givens.
Honorable Mentions
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Harrison Barnes, Golden State Warriors (restricted)
Harrison Barnes turned down a four-year, $64 million extension offer from the Golden State Warriors in September, according to Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski. He is now, despite a 16-game absence, having the best season of his career.
Forget the math. A max offer sheet is headed Barnes' way, even if it doesn't come from Golden State.
Nicolas Batum, Charlotte Hornets (unrestricted)
Nicolas Batum and the phrase "max-contract lock" have never gone hand-in-hand.
Until now.
Over the past 10 years, five players have hit 16 points, six rebounds and five assists per 36 minutes with an effective field-goal percentage—combined measurement of two- and three-point efficiency—of at least 50. Batum is one of them.
Kevin Durant, Blake Griffin, LeBron James and Paul Pierce are the other four.
Ian Clark, Golden State Warriors (restricted)
Ian Clark's production comes complete with colossal caveats. He plays for a historically good Warriors team and alongside superstars who are experts at collapsing defenses.
With that in mind, here's the list of qualifying players who are averaging at least 15 points, four rebounds and 3.5 assists per 36 minutes with an effective field-goal rate of 55:
- Stephen Curry
- Kevin Durant
- Ian Clark
Small-sample bias is strong here. I get it. But...holy moly, Ian Clark.
Jordan Clarkson, Los Angeles Lakers (restricted)
Jordan Clarkson isn't nearly as efficient as he was during his 2014-15 rookie crusade, but he's remained a bright spot for the Los Angeles Lakers—a this-is-going-to-get-expensive bright spot.
Clarkson is once again eclipsing 16.5 points, four rebounds, 2.5 assists and one steal per 36 minutes. The only other active guards to accomplish the same in each of their first two seasons are Kobe Bryant, Vince Carter, Curry, Tyreke Evans, Dwyane Wade and Russell Westbrook.
Kent Bazemore, Atlanta Hawks
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Age: 26
2015-16 Salary: $2 million
Free-Agency Type: Unrestricted
DeMarre Carroll, Part Two? The Atlanta Hawks sure hope not.
But, yeah, probably.
Kent Bazemore is in the second season of a two-year deal he signed with Atlanta, and that means the Hawks will only own his Early Bird rights. Because this will be an important concept from here on, we turn to Larry Coon, author of the CBA FAQ, for the limitations it imposes.
"A team may use the Early Bird exception to re-sign its own free agent for up to 175 percent of his salary in the previous season (not over the maximum salary, of course) or 104.5 percent of the average salary in the previous season, whichever is greater," Coon wrote.
The latter will be greater in this case, since Bazemore is earning just $2 million. But the league's average salary this season, per Basketball-Reference.com, is just under $4.6 million. If the Hawks want to keep Bazemore, they'll have to dip into their cap space.
Another team will assuredly offer him at least twice the league average. Certain league executives, according to ESPN.com's Zach Lowe, are preparing for Bazemore to command a deal that pays him an average of $12 million annually.
That number is difficult to wrap your head around. Bazemore is still most recognized for his towel-waving antics with the Warriors, but he's not that infamous benchwarmer anymore. He is a full-time starter for a top-four Eastern Conference team and has the statistical clout to justify what could be a 1,200 percent jump in salary.
Only two other players are recording 15 points, five rebounds, three assists and one steal per 36 minutes while burying 40 percent or more of their three-pointers: Curry and Draymond Green, each of whom is making more than $11 million this season.
Though Bazemore isn't on the same plane as either Curry or Green, he's quickly becoming one of the NBA's premier three-and-D talents, putting him on track to exceed even the most optimistic financial projections when he enters free agency.
Matthew Dellavedova, Cleveland Cavaliers
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Age: 25
2015-16 Salary: $1.1 million
Free-Agency Type: Restricted
LeBron James everything. Kevin Love's expanded offensive role. Kyrie Irving's return. Timofey Mozgov's struggles. Tristan Thompson's defense. Iman Shumpert playing doctor. Head coach David Blatt's affinity for comparing Boris Diaw to David Bowie.
Interesting Cleveland Cavaliers storylines abound—popular talking points that are doing their darnedest to overshadow Matthew Dellavedova.
To his credit, Dellavedova is providing plenty of pushback, claiming his fair share of headlines with an understatedly spectacular 2015-16 campaign. The scrappy Australian is the first guard off the bench behind Irving (sorry, Mo Williams), and he has the highest net rating of any Cavaliers player to appear in 15 games.
Pestering opposing ball-handlers used to be Dellavedova's primary role, but he's now one of Cleveland's most reliable shooters. He is knocking down 43 percent of his three-pointers overall, which is somehow misleadingly low.
More than two-thirds of his outside looks are coming as spot-up opportunities, and he's shooting better than 49 percent in those situations. He's also combining to convert nearly 63 percent of his left and right corner triples.
Cleveland is fortunate enough to have the ability to match any offer Dellavedova receives in restricted free agency—with the caveat we're being liberal in our use of "fortunate." The Cavaliers have more than $76 million in guaranteed salaries committed to next year's roster, and that's before factoring in the return of James and potential returns of J.R. Smith (player option) and Anderson Varejao (non-guaranteed).
There's a chance Dellavedova's offseason price point approaches an average annual salary of $10 million. And no, that's not a joke. It's roughly as much as Cleveland gave Iman Shumpert, who has thus far failed to rival Dellavedova's importance.
Festus Ezeli, Golden State Warriors
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Age: 26
2015-16 Salary: $2 million
Free-Agency Type: Restricted
Are you ready to be part of a world in which, for one season, Festus Ezeli earns more than Curry? Neither am I.
Alas, that's where we're at. Curry is slated to earn $12.1 million in 2016-17, and Ezeli is pacing himself toward a payday that will at least rival his MVP running mate's wage.
Whether the Warriors will be the ones footing that bill remains unclear. Everything hinges on their desire to join the Durant sweepstakes. And even then, they're just as likely to make Andrew Bogut collateral damage. Golden State's net rating with Ezeli is just about identical to its differential with Bogut, and the former's cap hold will be noticeably lower ($5 million) until he signs a new deal.
Oh, there's also this: If the Warriors don't break open the piggy bank for Ezeli, another organization will swiftly call dibs.
He ranks as a top-five rim protector among the 75 qualified players to defend four shots at the iron per game, and it's possible he underwent a hands transplant or invested in undetectable Stickum over the offseason. He has slashed his turnover percentage amid an increase in usage and is flashing a better touch inside the post and around the rim.
Ezeli is also one of six players averaging 15 points, 10 rebounds and two blocks per 36 minutes. His statistical brethren? Anthony Davis, Pau Gasol, Kristaps Porzingis, Karl-Anthony Towns and Hassan Whiteside.
Good luck to those hoping Golden State, or any other team, gets Ezeli for less than $12 million per year.
Langston Galloway, New York Knicks
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Age: 24
2015-16 Salary: $845,059
Free-Agency Type: Restricted
Philadelphia 76ers general manager, but-not-really-general-manager-because-Jerry-Colangelo-is-in-town Sam Hinkie is not proud of the New York Knicks.
They had the opportunity to lock down Langston Galloway with a low-level four-year deal, a trademark of Hinkie's, but instead only signed him through 2015-16. The Knicks will now pay for their absentmindedness—assuming they can even afford to.
New York owns the Early Bird rights for Galloway, just as Atlanta does for Bazemore. But Galloway, unlike Bazemore, will enter the field as a restricted free agent, making it more likely he doesn't price himself out of the Knicks' range.
As Coon wrote of restricted free agents with Early Bird rights:
"Teams are now limited in the salary they can offer in an offer sheet to a restricted free agent with one or two years in the league. The first-year salary in the offer sheet cannot be greater than the Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level exception. Limiting the first-year salary in this way enables the player's original team to match the offer sheet by using the Early Bird exception (if applicable), or Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level exception (provided they have it and haven't used it already).
The second-year salary in such an offer sheet is limited to the standard 4.5% raise. The third-year salary can jump considerably -- it is allowed to be as high as it would have been had the first-year salary not been limited by this rule to the Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level exception.
"
Basically, the Knicks can keep Galloway if they choose. Complications only arise if a team with cap space tosses him a poison-pill contract worth substantially more in the third year of his new deal—a la Jeremy Lin and the Houston Rockets in 2012.
Unlikely? Sure. Impossible? Not at all.
Galloway is essentially an undersized shooting guard. He can make plays for his teammates when attacking the rim but is best served as a scorer. And while his shooting has cooled since the start of the season, he's still lethal off the catch.
Just under 35 percent of his field-goal attempts are spot-up looks, and he's shooting better than 40 percent on those possessions. He leads all of New York's second-stringers in win shares and has been the team's best defensive guard, according to defensive box plus-minus.
Terrence Jones, Houston Rockets
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Age: 24
2015-16 Salary: $2.5 million
Free-Agency Type: Restricted
Sources told ESPN.com's Marc Stein the Rockets may be prepared to flip Corey Brewer and Terrence Jones to the Phoenix Suns in exchange for Markieff Morris as soon as Jan. 15, when Brewer is first eligible to be traded.
This doesn't make a ton of sense at first glance. Morris' trade stock has imploded, and the 6'9" Jones is one of the NBA's few bigs who can stroke threes and protect the rim.
And then it hits you: Jones is one of the NBA's few bigs who can stroke threes and protect the rim. He is going to cost a fortune for Houston to retain.
Jones' on-off court splits are sad. The Rockets are statistically better without him, and he has struggled as a part of almost any lineup that doesn't feature him at center.
But Jones brings the heat based on sheer individual potential. His three-point success rate has climbed through each of his first four seasons and has settled at 37.7 percent for 2015-16.
Patrick Beverley is the lone healthy Rockets player with a better mark. And only three other players pair Jones' three-point percentage with at least five made triples and averages of 15 points, seven rebounds and one block per 36 minutes: Durant, Green and Kelly Olynyk.
So even while enduring a career-worst year on the defensive end, Jones has positioned himself to demand a contract worth eight figures annually—hence Houston's apparent willingness to move him for the cheaper Morris.
Jon Leuer, Phoenix Suns
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Age: 26
2015-16 Salary: $1 million
Free-Agency Type: Unrestricted
Silver linings are hard to come by for the 2015-16 Phoenix Suns.
Eric Bledsoe is done for the season after having surgery on a torn meniscus; head coach Jeff Hornacek lost two of his assistants and seems like a sitting duck; Morris is playing himself in and out of the rotation; and clinching a playoff berth isn't even a remote possibility.
Thankfully, the Suns have Jon Leuer to ease the pain of a season run afoul.
Leuer has shot his way into the starting lineup and is routinely stealing minutes from Tyson Chandler and Alex Len. He and Mirza Teletovic are the only bigs who improve Phoenix's offense when on the floor, and Leuer's 40-plus percent clip from long range ranks third among all players who have jacked 50 threes and stand 6'10" or taller.
Hornacek hasn't hesitated to trot out Leuer as a center. Close to one-third of his minutes come at the 5, and while he doesn't offer much as a paint-policer on defense, some of Phoenix's most effective offensive units are four- or five-out combinations that utilize him as the primary tower.
Throw in a rebounding percentage that creeps above 15, and Leuer looks eerily similar, both in practice and on paper, to Ryan Anderson. And Anderson, though a more established commodity and due for a raise himself, is earning $8.5 million this season.
Is it possible Leuer snags 2015-16 Ryan Anderson money in free agency?
Let's answer that question with another question: Are you surprised we're even entertaining that Leuer could maybe, quite possibly, earn anything in the ballpark of Ryan Anderson money?
Ian Mahinmi, Indiana Pacers
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Age: 29
2015-16 Salary: $4 million
Free-Agency Type: Unrestricted
Ian Mahinmi's numbers aren't smack-you-in-the-face fantastic, but they are friggin' good—good enough that his salary should double, potentially triple, leading into next season.
In addition to averaging a double-double per 36 minutes, Mahinmi's assist percentage has exploded. He has also aided the Indiana Pacers' installation of a faster offense without sacrificing much on the defensive end.
Opponents are shooting 52.5 percent at the rim against Mahinmi. That's not bad for the number of attempts he challenges, and it's only a half-percentage point worse than noted shot-blocker Andre Drummond.
Overall, Mahinmi is grading out as one of the most valuable players at his position. He ranks sixth among centers in total points added (TPA), a metric developed by Bleacher Report's Adam Fromal that shows how many points better the average team is with a certain player on the floor.
Tim Duncan, Pau Gasol, Al Horford, DeAndre Jordan and Nikola Vucevic are the only 5s who outperform Mahinmi in this department, and each is an All-Star or potential All-Star.
Knowing the New Orleans Pelicans shelled out five years and more than $50 million to keep Omer Asik last summer, it would be unwise to put an exact number on Mahinmi's next contract.
But that's only because said number may end up being higher than any of us can reasonably fathom.
Zaza Pachulia, Dallas Mavericks
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Age: 31
2015-16 Salary: $5.2 million
Free-Agency Type: Unrestricted
Zaza Pachulia wasn't even the Dallas Mavericks' Plan Q over the offseason. They picked him up from the Milwaukee Bucks only after Jordan screamed "Mulligan!"—he wasn't supposed to be anything more than a one-year placeholder.
Except this one-year placeholder ranks seventh among all centers in TPA. Jordan ranks third, but he's making nearly $15 million more than Pachulia. Dallas can handle that.
What I cannot handle is Pachulia leading the Mavericks in win shares.
Again: Zaza Pachulia, who has mostly been used as a backup during his career, leads a top-five Western Conference team in win shares.
"I know it’s surprising for a lot of people, but honestly, I feel like I was just born,” Pachulia said of playing in Dallas, per ESPN.com's Tim MacMahon. “I don’t want to say anything bad about the places I’ve been, but this is the greatest situation I’ve been in during my career."
No kidding. Pachulia is a perfect fit for the Mavericks' pick-and-roll-packed offense; opponents are shooting at below-average clips when defended by him inside 10 feet of the hoop; and he's just the fifth player since 1990 to average 12 points, 13 rebounds and two assists per 36 minutes with a player efficiency rating of 18 or higher.
His company? DeMarcus Cousins, Kevin Love, Hakeem Olajuwon and Kevin Willis.
Finally, an explanation as to why Pachulia has received more than twice as many All-Star votes as Dirk Nowitzki.
Ish Smith, Philadelphia 76ers
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Age: 27
2015-16 Salary: $1.1 million
Free-Agency Type: Unrestricted
I'm not saying Ish Smith is the Philadelphia 76ers' savior. Some things are unassailable facts and needn't ever be said.
Smith is yet another sign the Sixers are moving away from Hinkie's initial plan. He helps add to their win total and, more notably, is set to enter unrestricted free agency. The Sixers will need to—gasp—spend actual money to keep him around.
Philadelphia remains awful when Smith is on the floor, giving a 7.5-point edge per 100 possessions to its opponents. But the team is worse when Smith sits, and his net rating is more than twice as good as those of franchise cornerstones Nerlens Noel (minus-15.4) and Jahlil Okafor (minus-18).
Along with Richaun Holmes(!), Smith is the Sixers' only everyday rotation player with a positive offensive box plus-minus. And since arriving in Philly, he's been a much more reliable three-point shooter than either of his predecessors, T.J. McConnell and Isaiah Canaan.
There is some concern about his ability to finish around the rim. He is shooting less than 42 percent inside three feet of the basket as a member of the Sixers. That ranks dead last on the team and is much worse than his marks in New Orleans.
Smith's production is nevertheless seductive. There are only three other players clearing 15 points per 36 minutes and assisting on 40 percent or more of their teams' baskets when in the lineup: Chris Paul, John Wall and Westbrook—all super-duper megastars.
That Smith doesn't pilot a top-tier offense most definitely counts against him. He is by no means an All-Star. He is, however, someone speeding toward a pricey long-term contract.
Lance Thomas, New York Knicks
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Age: 27
2015-16 Salary: $1.6 million
Free-Agency Type: Unrestricted
Lance Thomas poses yet another Early Bird rights conundrum for the Knicks, per Yahoo Sports' Bobby Marks. And unlike Galloway, his earning potential isn't limited by his playing experience.
This is the dilemma New York faces. Thomas isn't statistically reinventing the wheel, but as Fred Katz underscored for Fox Sports, he's doing everything else:
"Lance Thomas isn't just another guy anymore. He's become the Knicks' legitimate sixth man, the first player off the bench to sub in for Kristaps Porzingis during the first quarter.
Thomas is hitting threes, playing D, defending pick-and-rolls. He's doing everything the Knicks could have hoped he would at the start of the season—plus, a little bit more. If there were an award for Most Improved Knick, he'd be running away with it.
"
Consider that Thomas is holding opponents to sub-40 percent shooting despite often drawing the toughest perimeter assignments.
Also consider that, with a comparable number of touches, he is notching more points per spot-up possession than Danny Green, Draymond Green, Kyle Lowry, Nowitzki, Klay Thompson and a host of other celebrated shooters.
Then consider that Thomas' per-36-minute production stacks up against Bazemore's—the same Bazemore who, per Lowe, might fetch a contract with an annual eight-figure price tag.
Similar compensation cannot be ruled out for Thomas, who is gradually making himself invaluable to a Knicks team that may have to increase his yearly salary by more than 1,000 percent just to keep him.
Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com, NBA.com and Adam Fromal's TPA database unless otherwise cited and are accurate leading into games on Jan. 14. All salary information via Basketball Insiders unless otherwise attributed.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter, @danfavale.
