Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cleveland Browns Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

If you need a win to stay alive in the playoff race, you'd sure hope to run into a team you know you can beat. And that's the situation for Mike Tomlin's Pittsburgh Steelers, who are 14-3 straight up and 10-7 against the spread against this week's opponent, the Cleveland Browns, under his watch.

Point spread: Steelers opened as 8.5-point favorites; the total was 47 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 26.8-21.7 Steelers

Why the Steelers can cover the spread

The Steelers had won three games in a row—and five of six—to position themselves well in the AFC wild-card race, but they suffered a letdown last week and lost at injury-bedeviled Baltimore, 20-17.

Pittsburgh drove the opening kickoff into Ravens territory but got stuffed on a 4th-and-1. It then allowed Baltimore to drive for an immediate touchdown and never recovered. Pittsburgh trailed, 20-10, early in the fourth, pulled to within a field goal with six minutes to go, but it could get no closer. For the first time in seven games, the Steelers failed to score at least 30 points.

In retrospect, last week's loss almost falls into that “perfect storm” category; the Steelers were coming off that huge come-from-behind victory over Denver and probably took the Ravens lightly, who were starting a quarterback they just signed off the street two weeks ago. Instead, Ryan Mallett burned them.

So to make the playoffs, Pittsburgh now needs a victory over Cleveland and help in the form of the Bills upsetting the Jets.

Why the Browns can cover the spread

The downtrodden Browns are actually coming off a gutty performance, a 17-13 loss, but they covered as 11-point underdogs at playoff-bound Kansas City. Cleveland fell down to the Chiefs early, 10-0, trailed 17-3 at the half, but it rallied to within one score midway through the fourth quarter and twice drove into Kansas City territory in the final moments before the clock ran out.

For the day, the Browns outrushed the Chiefs, 232 to 136, as quarterback Johnny Manziel scrambled for 108 yards. But seven incursions inside KC's side of the 50-yard line resulted in just one touchdown and two field goals.

Three weeks ago, Cleveland picked up its third victory of this season, 24-10 over San Francisco. Two weeks ago, the Browns actually gave a hot Seattle team a decent game, covering the spread as two-touchdown dogs into the fourth quarter, before fading.

Cleveland is now 2-4 SU, 3-3 ATS in Manziel's starts this season and 1-8 SU, 3-6 ATS in games started by others. Finally, double-digit dogs are 14-8 ATS this NFL betting season, winning seven of those games outright.

Smart pick

Giving double digits on the divisional road is always risky, but Pittsburgh is likely to rebound after last week's poor performance, while the Browns might be ripe for a letdown after a big effort last week. That's why the smart money here sides with the Steelers.

Betting trends

The visiting team is 2-6 ATS in its last eight games in this matchup.

The Steelers are 21-3 SU in their last 24 games against the Browns.

The Browns are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.