Early-Season Report Cards for Houston Rockets' Key Prospects

The Houston Rockets are intriguing from the perspective of their age. They are neither a particularly young team nor an old one. Eight of their members are between the ages of 25 and 30, meaning they are very much a squad of players whose primes pretty much coincide.

The only one on the present roster older than that is Jason Terry, who at 38 is practically old enough to be the father of many of the Rockets—or at least their uncle. Here, though, we want to focus on the next generation of Rockets, those who are 24 and under.

Houston only has four players with contracts who meet that description: Sam Dekker, Montrezl Harrell, K.J. McDaniels and Clint Capela.

Dekker, the Rockets' first-round pick who was taken with the 18th selection out of Wisconsin, has played just six minutes. He is out healing from a back surgery and is expected to miss another two months. Because there is nothing to grade, he's omitted from this report card.

Harrell, the Rockets' other rookie who was taken out of Louisville with the second round’s No. 2 pick, was transferred to Houston's NBA Development League affiliate—the Rio Grande Valley Vipers—on Dec. 6. He had scored 56 points and snatched 29 boards in 158 minutes of NBA action. With the Vipers, he’s notching 20 points and 10 rebounds per game. Harrell has tremendous hustle and promise, but the minutes are too scarce to give him much of a grade.

And so, there are only two players suiting up for the Rockets now under 25: McDaniels and Capela.

K.J. McDaniels: Incomplete

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To be fair, K.J. McDaniels hasn’t played enough to warrant a grade either. In 43 minutes this season, he’s scored 17 points, grabbed nine boards and handed out one assist. So basically, if you put it all together, the 22-year-old's had the equivalent of one good game.

But that raises the question: Why is he here? It is strange the Rockets have paid so high a price for a guy whom they have played so little. Last year, they gave the Philadelphia 76ers backup point guard Isaiah Canaan and a 2015 second-round pick (which became Richaun Holmes) for McDaniels. Then, they doubled down on their investment when they used part of their mid-level exception to sign him to a three-year, $10 million contract.

In doing so, they made a choice to retain him over Josh Smith, who is now with the Los Angeles Clippers.

So it’s befuddling why Houston has used him so scarcely, especially with Corey Brewer having the second-lowest player efficiency rating (PER) of his career at 9.2, according to Basketball-Reference.com. Rather, the Rockets are bouncing McDaniels down to the Rio Grande Valley Vipers.

And his attitude down there has been tremendous. Keith Schlosser wrote for SB Nation’s Ridiculous Upside about his and Harrell’s game there:

"

The plus/minus factor was not necessarily in either one's favor, but in this case, looks were deceiving. The duo was downright exuberant while hitting the minor league hardwood. Aside from the numbers, each one should be considered the poster-child for coming to the D-League and simply going to work. They were energetic, loud, and proud all game long. Their collective excitement was contagious, as they played off each other very well, looking excited to relish in the opportunity --- not only to get more minutes, but to also be celebrated as the stars of the given contest.

"

So the question is: If the Rockets think he’s worth paying, why isn’t he playing—particularly since he’s been fine in his limited minutes on the mother ship and noteworthy down below?

Clint Capela: A

If you’re only going to have one player under 25 suiting up, it helps if the kid gets an A, and Capela deserves one. Taken with the 25th pick of the 2014 draft, he seemed to be a project. He was a tremendous athlete who had played his whole life in Europe and still had plenty of holes in his game.

Here's a part of his NBADraft.net report from Rick Pietro on Feb. 16, 2014:

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The biggest knock on Capela is his lack of basketball IQ ... He frequently appears lost and often wants to make plays without understanding what is going on around him ... He also should be an absolute monster due to his physical attributes but can lack aggressiveness on both ends of the court ... Instead he shows laziness, playing behind opposing big men in the post when he should fight to deny entry pass or simply not getting into a low defensive stance on the perimeter ... In addition his defensive technique on the block lacks fundamentals, many times two dribbles are enough to push him under the basket and finish over him ... For a raw, very unskilled player like him, at this moment of his career, effort should always be stellar to compensate for his weaknesses ...

"

As things turned out, he was a bit of a project, but he matured quicker than anyone excepted. And if you’re Harrell, you have to take delight in knowing a lot of that maturing came in Rio Grande Valley.

Capela’s raw numbers are not all that impressive. The 21-year-old is averaging 7.9 points and 7.1 rebounds per game, and he’s shooting a hefty 61.1 percent. Those aren’t eye-popping, but they’re coming in just 20 minutes a night. Look at his per-36 numbers compared with teammate Dwight Howard’s:

But things get more impressive when you go beyond the basic stats to look at the advanced numbers. Capela isn’t just getting an A; he’s setting the curve by leading all sophomore players with 2.1 win shares and a 21.1 PER. Right now, he’s at the head of his class.

One of the areas where Capela helps the Rockets the most is on the offensive glass. Nylon Calculus calculates offensive rebound chase percentage (the percent of his team’s misses a player goes after) and offensive rebound win percentage (percent of careens corralled when a defender was vying for it).

Capela’s chase percentage is 29.6, and his win percentage is 51.7. Only three other players—Andre Drummond, Enes Kanter and Howard—are above 25 and 50 percent, respectively, and only Drummond beats Capela on both counts.

And, according to Seth Partnow's rim-protection stats, only 11 players who log 20 minutes a game are saving more raw points than Capela's 5.55 per 36 minutes.

He has tremendous length and extraordinary athleticism that he combines to be a two-way player down low. Dan Feldman of NBC Sports' Pro Basketball Talk describes him:

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He’s not the most refined player, but he tends to get to the right spots on both ends of the floor. Once there, he uses his impressive physical skills – including a 7-foot-5 wingspan – to make a play. He’s a quality pick-and-roll finisher, and he crashes the offensive glass hard. He also combines the foot speed to defend the pick-and-roll and the leaping ability to protect the rim.

"

Don’t take my word for it—or Feldman’s. See for yourself. He repeatedly occupied the restricted area against Robin Lopez and Kristaps Porzingis. Note how he muscles himself in to get the ball and the points:

And yes, having both him and Howard together is a big boost. When the modern Twin Towers are on the court, the Rockets’ net rating is plus-17.4 per 100 possessions and they have a surreal 42.5 offensive rebound percentage. That’s 3.1 percentage points better than any pairing in the NBA this year. And, it’s the best in at least the last three seasons—as far back as Basketball-Reference.com's Play Index goes.

Rather than seeing Capela as a rival for his job, Howard views himself as the sophomore’s mentor, according to Feldman.

"This is a dream, a dream come true,” Howard said he tells Capela. “So, just keep playing and have a good time, because there are plenty of players in Switzerland who wish they were you.”

It’s hard to believe Capela had never played a second of basketball in America before last summer. He’s quickly adapted his incredible physical attributes to the NBA game and has established an eagerness to learn. He is the model student.

And for that reason, he’s also a shining example to the other kids on the team, and perhaps that’s part of the reason for their positive attitude when the Rockets sent them down to Rio Grande. 

And, it's a good reason for Houston to feel good about its development for the future.   

Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com unless noted otherwise.