Texans vs. Titans: Full Houston Week 16 Preview

If someone had told you right after the humiliating 44-26 blowout loss to the Miami Dolphins that the Houston Texans would have a chance to win the AFC South in Week 16 and possibly rest players during the final game of the season, you probably would have laughed at them. And yet here we are with that exact scenario.

The easiest clinching scenario—which will be explained in greater detail later—is a win by the Texans and a loss by the Indianapolis Colts, who will face the Dolphins this week. Even if both teams win, there is a chance that a tiebreaker in the Texans' favor could be clinched to still give them the division crown this week.

My postgame recap articles have often been critical of the game management by head coach Bill O'Brien, but I have to give credit when it's due: He's done a fantastic job this season to pull the team out of its 2-5 hole and put it in a position to make the playoffs.

Yes, they're only in this position because every other team in the division has a losing record, but many teams would have folded up for the season after the beatings put on the Texans by Atlanta and Miami, so even getting his team to the .500 mark is an accomplishment.

With the Texans' situation at quarterback, this could still go sideways and end with heartbreak, but with the evidence and results we've seen so far, most fans should be pretty confident in O'Brien as a coach and where he'll be able to take the team once it actually gets a franchise quarterback.

No one it's had on the roster the last two seasons is the future at the position—Tom Savage included—so win or lose, finding that guy will still be the top priority of the upcoming offseason.

For now, though, let's just enjoy this unexpected ride.

Week 15 Results and Recap

Michael Conroy/Associated Press

Defense probably won't win a championship for Houston this season, but it certainly won last week's game against Indianapolis and is the single biggest reason why the team will likely win the AFC South this year.

The Texans were facing a very limited offense that was led by an injured quarterback, but it was still a great performance.

Houston held the Colts offense to their second-lowest rushing total of the season with 50 yards on 2.6 yards per carry and kept Indianapolis as an entire team to under 200 total yards for the first time since the 2011 season.

The Colts' final seven possessions ended with five punts, a fumble and the game-ending interception; the Texans' defense completely dominated the second half.

Even on their two possessions that ended with scores, the Colts started both drives on the Texans' side of the field and only the moved the ball a combined 66 yards, so those points were more a result of offensive turnovers and poor punt coverage.

The other winning factor for the Texans besides surprising poise from Brandon Weeden was another out-of-nowhere performance from a Texans running back.

Alfred Blue didn't get a single carry against New England, but he ran for 107 yards on 5.3 per attempt in the win at Indianapolis.

Blue hadn't topped the century mark since the Texans' Week 3 game against Tampa Bay and has been held under 50 yards in nine of the 13 games he's been active this season.

Getting 100 yards from Blue obviously isn't something that should be counted on, but as a team, the Texans have rushed for more than 100 in four of their last five games after only doing so once in their first nine games.

On the negative side of things, what in the world was Bill O'Brien thinking when he sent out Nick Novak to attempt a 57-yard field goal? I like O'Brien as a coach, but seriously, that was an awful, indefensible decision.

Novak is a 34-year-old kicker the team signed as a midseason, street free agent, and even in his youth he wasn't known for having a huge leg like Greg Zuerlein or Justin Tucker.

His previous career-long field-goal make was from 53 yards, and that happened four years ago during the 2011 season.

Novak couldn't have made that kick on Madden 16 with the arrow pointed all the way down and the power bar filled all the way up. Just a baffling decision.

Besides the questionable game-management decisions from O'Brien, the other thing that's been happening weekly that's concerning is the poor play from the punt coverage and punt returners on special teams.

The defense bailed out the punt coverage after a 33-yard return from Quan Bray of the Colts, but another 19-yard return did help set up points for Indianapolis in the second quarter.

On the other side, Keith Mumphery managed just seven yards per punt return.

For the season, of the 36 players who have played in at least four games and returned at least 10 punts, Mumphery ranks 25th in yards per punt return, according to Football Focus.

Perhaps even more frustrating to watch than their continued failure when they actually try to make a return was with fair catches made by Mumphery and Cecil Shorts at the 8-, 7- and 6-yard line, respectively, at different points against Indianapolis.

An argument could be made that the Colts would have downed one of those punts at the 1- or 2-yard line had a fair catch not been made, but that wasn't the case for the other two, and even still, I'd rather give up the five yards than risk a fumble at that spot on the field and give the opponent an easy score.

Not every scenario is the same, which is way players doing that job need to have great awareness and quick decision-making ability on top of the athletic requirements. But in most cases, if you stand at the 10-yard line and have to back-pedal to catch a punt, it's probably a good idea to let it go.

News and Notes

Elaine Thompson/Associated Press

Division-Clinching Scenarios for Week 16

Here's what you need to know going into Week 16 as it relates to the Texans clinching the AFC South title for the first time since 2012.

• Houston cannot win a wild-card spot. It will either win its division or miss the playoffs.
• If the Texans win both of their remaining games, they'll obviously win the division regardless of what happens with Indianapolis.
• If the Texans go 1-1 while the Colts go 2-0 over the final two weeks, they'll need the fifth tiebreaker, which is "strength of victory" after failing to break the tie with a split in the head-to-head matchups and equal records against the division, conference and common opponents.
• Strength of victory means the total number of wins by teams that you've defeated.
• Every win by Cincinnati, New Orleans and the New York Jets improves the Texans' strength of victory, as they are teams Houston has defeated that the Colts have not.
• On the other hand, the Colts need Atlanta, Miami and Denver to win to improve their strength-of-victory tiebreaker. 

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Attn Texans fans... Updated Wk 16 clinching scenarios for AFC South pic.twitter.com/c5pA9XkphF

— Jon Zimmer (@NFLhistory) December 22, 2015"

Texans Sign B.J. Daniels

After losing last week's starting quarterback, T.J. Yates, to a season-ending knee injury, the Texans decided to sign an interesting player off the Seattle Seahawks' practice roster. 

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B.J. Daniels, signed to Texans roster off Seattle practice squad, contacted in middle of the night Texans wanted him badly, Seahawks unhappy

— Aaron Wilson (@AaronWilson_NFL) December 21, 2015"

They signed B.J. Daniels, who played quarterback while at the University of South Florida, but since making the NFL, he has been more of a "slash" player. Daniels was drafted by San Francisco in 2013, but he spent the last two seasons with Seattle as a receiver and special teams players.

From Aaron Wilson of the Houston Chronicle, Bill O'Brien said Daniels is a player they've followed and that they like his versatility:

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He’s a guy that we’ve known about for a while. Offensive coordinator George Godsey is familiar with him from when he was at South Florida. George was at Central Florida. I spoke briefly with him this morning, impressive guy.

Yeah, we’re going to train him to play quarterback, but we’re also going to do some things with him as a receiver. We’re not going to try to put too much on his plate. It’d be more like packages and then we’ll see how it goes throughout the week whether he’s up for the game.

"

He's seen very little action at both positions, but it's an interesting decision by the Texans to sign a player who hasn't thrown a pass in the NFL to be their third- or possibly even second-string quarterback if Brian Hoyer isn't able to play.

The available quarterback options in free agency at this point in the season are obviously slim, but wouldn't you want to bring in a player who wouldn't be attempting his first career pass if you have to put him in during an important game?

Daniels wasn't signed to be their every-down quarterback it appears, but with just Hoyer and Brandon Weeden on the roster, he might have to play.

It wasn't a bad idea to bring Daniels in to create some Wildcat-type packages for him as a change-of-pace player—while also trying him out as a wide receiver and special teams player—but making him the replacement for Yates essentially probably wasn't the best decision possible.

Daniels should have been brought in as a wide receiver and specials teams player who could also serve as an emergency quarterback and someone who could contribute in special packages. If they wanted Daniels that badly, the Texans should have signed two players, with the other being an experienced quarterback.

Too bad they made the injured-reserve mistake with Tom Savage earlier this year, or he would be an option to play as well.

Latest Injury News

George Bridges/Associated Press

Brian Hoyer

It doesn't seem like Brian Hoyer will start this game since he was still in the concussion protocol as of Wednesday, but with him taking some practice reps, it feel likely that he'll be able to start the final game against the Jacksonville Jaguars if necessary and also be available for the playoffs.

No game in the NFL is a given, but even looking past the personal safety issue and the long-term impact of the now multiple concussions Hoyer has had this season, the Texans shouldn't risk his availability for the playoffs by playing him against the Tennessee Titans or Jacksonville if he's not ready.

The Texans aren't a lock to win those games by any means, but they're also capable of defeating both teams without Hoyer on the field.

It should be mentioned that since Ryan Mallett was released, the Texans are 2-0 in games started by other quarterbacks because Hoyer was out due to injury. That 2-0 record doesn't even account for the Cincinnati Bengals game in which T.J. Yates, and not Hoyer, threw the game-winning touchdown pass.

It's easy to get caught up in the here and now, but Hoyer really needs to start thinking about the big picture. If I were him and considering all that we know about concussions now, I would strongly consider sitting the rest of the season and getting several medical opinions in the offseason before returning.

That's a personal decision, though, and the team's odds of making the playoffs and possibly winning one game are certainly better with him on the field, so if he wants to return, I'll cheer for him. 

Cecil Shorts

Tough break for the veteran wide receiver who has struggled to stay healthy this season and also over his entire career. Cecil Shorts has missed at least two games in every season of his career, and if he can't go on Sunday, it will be the fourth game he's missed for the Texans this year.

Shorts hasn't had a breakout season, but his production has been decent, and his absence is a problem for the Texans.

A bigger issue than the problem of replacing the guy with the third-most receiving yards on your team this season will be figuring out who to put in the slot when the Texans decide to use three wide receivers.

Rookie Jaelen Strong will take his place as the third wide receiver, but he, Nate Washington and DeAndre Hopkins are all better suited for the outside receiver role instead of the slot.

Keith Mumphery, another rookie, is probably their most natural slot receiver left, but playing him in the slot wouldn't necessarily mean you'd have to take a more talented player off the field in three-receiver formations.

It will be a difficult puzzle to fit together for Bill O'Brien this week.

Source: Pro-Football-Reference.com

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.@HoustonTexans Wednesday Practice Report (12/23): pic.twitter.com/9LFrw2E4Xb

— Texans PR (@TexansPR) December 23, 2015"

Key Matchups

Charles Krupa/Associated Press

Take Away Delanie Walker

The Titans don't have many playmakers on offense, but one guy who could make it a long day is tight end Delanie Walker.

Most people probably don't realize that it's Walker who leads all tight ends this season in receptions.

Rob Gronkowski would probably be the leader if hadn't missed a couple games, but people might have guessed Greg Olsen or Jason Witten before Walker if asked who leads all tight ends in catches this season.

Walker also ranks third in receiving yards and seventh in receiving touchdowns among all NFL tight ends.

The Titans offense was held to just six points the last time they played Houston, but Walker was a small silver lining for them with a solid stat line of six receptions for 62 yards.

Tennessee's next leading receiver for targets and receiving yards—Dorial Green-Beckham—is 45 targets and 407 yards behind Walker, so he's clearly their go-to target for whichever quarterback is under center and should be the main focus for the Texans secondary this week.

Double-Team Jurrell Casey If Necessary

Similar to the situation on the offensive side, the Titans don't have many playmakers on their defense, but one player capable of getting to the quarterback is defensive tackle Jurrell Casey.

Casey is currently tied for second in sacks on their team with seven and reached double digits in sacks for the Titans in 2013. Double-digit sacks for a defensive tackle is rare, so Casey is a threat that Houston has to have a plan to stop.

Pro Football Focus has Casey graded as the sixth-best pass-rusher among interior defensive lineman and ninth in overall grade for that same position.

Houston offensive guard Xavier Su'a-Filo struggled last week against Indianapolis and came away with the worst pass-block grade by Pro Football Focus for the team.

For the season, Su'a-Filo ranks 57th out of 82 guards in that same grade for pass blocking among players who have played on at least 25 percent of their team's snaps.

Whether he's asked to block Casey will be something to watch.

Texans' X-Factor of the Week

Bob Levey/Getty Images

Texans X-Factor of the Week: J.J. Watt and his broken hand

Contrary to what has been said by many, J.J. Watt hasn't been a complete non-factor since breaking his hand. He certainly hasn't been as effective rushing the passer, but he has been solid against the run and actually received the team's highest run defense grade from Pro Football Focus last week.

Regardless of that debate, a major reason why the Texans have dominated Tennessee over recent years has been because the Titans have failed miserably with trying to contain the pass rush from Watt.

In nine career games against the Titans, Watt has 14.5 sacks against them. His sacks-per-game average against Tennessee multiplied out over a full season would give him 25 over 16 games, which would beat the current single-season NFL record by 2.5 sacks.

The Texans are 7-2 in those nine games against Tennessee with Watt playing; he has dominated the Titans.

This week's starter for the Titans, Zach Mettenberger, has had the misfortune of facing Watt three times and oddly becoming a target that seems to fire Watt and the Texans defense up.

In those three starts, Mettenberger has been held under 200 yards passing twice, has thrown an equal amount of interceptions to touchdowns, has been sacked by Watt 6.5 times and the Texans won each game by at least 14 points with a 17-point average margin of victory.

If his hand wasn't a concern or a limiting factor, Watt would have been capable of carrying the team to victory in this game. However, with that taped-up club attached to the end of his arm, will he still have the same impact?

The Texans are capable of winning this game with or without a great pass-rushing performance from Watt, but it sure as hell would be a lot easier with him at full strength.

Prediction

Brett Carlsen/Getty Images

With Marcus Mariota already declared out, fans of the Texans should feel pretty confident in their team's ability to go on the road and get this win.

That's not to say that Mariota has reached the same game-breaker status of the elite quarterbacks, but obviously, facing Zach Mettenberger is a better matchup.

Not only is Mettenberger easy to sack with the foot speed of a refrigerator, but he also doesn't have the athletic ability required to create big gains off of broken plays like Mariota.

Mariota is a threat to scramble from the pocket, but that athletic ability also helps him to avoid the pass rush and give his receivers more time to get open downfield, which creates more big plays than him actually running.

There's also that difficult-to-define factor of facing a quarterback, especially an athletic one they haven't faced before. The Texans know they can get to Mettenberger and they're confident they can stop him, but that may not be true with Mariota.

The Texans defense struggled with keeping contain and lane integrity early in the season, so Mariota's mobility would have put their improvement in that area to a difficult test; that concern doesn't exist against Mettenberger.

If the Texans defense plays like it did against New Orleans and Cincinnati, they'll win this game.

They'll obviously need Brandon Weeden or Brian Hoyer to limit mistakes and also get another 100-yard rushing performance from the running backs, but defense can win this game for them against this opponent.

Prediction: Texans 20, Titans 13

Follow me on Twitter for more news and opinion on the Texans: @sackedbybmac.