Panthers vs. Giants: What's the Game Plan for Carolina?
The Carolina Panthers face their toughest remaining challenge of the regular season this week, taking a trip up to New Jersey to take on the New York Giants. The Giants are still very much in the thick of the NFC East race, even with their 6-7 record. Although they’re not quite in a must-win situation against Carolina, their backs are very much near the wall.
Head coach Tom Coughlin and Eli Manning have been in games against undefeated opponents before, however. They knocked off the 18-0 Patriots in Super Bowl XLII and actually have beaten the last undefeated team more than any other team in NFL history. They’re coming off a big win in Miami on Monday to keep their season alive and could really use a win at home against Carolina.
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Carolina, on the other hand, is coming off what is tied for the biggest win in franchise history, with the 38-0 drubbing of Atlanta last weekend. The game it ties is actually the last time these two teams faced off, when the Panthers beat the Giants 38-0 in 2013 in a game that saw Manning hit the deck seven times and Cam Newton score four touchdowns through the air and on the ground.
The Panthers are banged up for this one—Jonathan Stewart will miss his first game of the season—but are looking to join the very short list of teams to start a season 14-0. Can they do it in their first real road test since the trip to Seattle back in Week 6? Let’s take a closer look.
Offensive Game Plan
The Giants have not been particularly good on defense, but that’s more pronounced through the air rather than on the ground. No team in football has allowed more total passing yards than the Giants have, and they’re second to only the Saints in net yards per attempt allowed. Conversely, their 4.1 yards allowed per rush aren't particularly great but are right in line with league averages.
When the Panthers last played the Saints, Newton threw for a season-high 331 yards with five touchdowns and an interception. His second-highest yardage total of the year also came against the Saints—315 yards back in Week 3.
He’s also on a hot streak through the air—four of his five best passing days, in terms of quarterback rating, have come in the past five weeks, with the fifth coming in Week 3 against New Orleans.
Couple that with Stewart missing the game, and you can guess that the Panthers’ strategy will involve Newton throwing the ball an awful lot. The Giants aren’t as bad as the Saints are by any stretch of the imagination—some of their poor numbers come from the sheer amount of passing attempts they’ve had to face. They’ve had to play against some tough quarterbacks this season as well.
Still, there’s only so much being second-worst in the league can really cover up.
They’re especially poor covering tight ends, where they’ve allowed an average of 76.8 yards per game. Ben Watson had 147 yards against them in Week 8, Rob Gronkowski had 113 yards in Week 10 and Charles Clay had 111 yards in Week 4.
So expect Greg Olsen to play a major role in the receiving game this week. Safety Craig Dahl is normally the man covering tight ends, but expect the Giants to use an all-hands-on-deck mentality, getting help from players like Brandon Meriweather to help bracket Olsen at times as well. So far, nothing has really worked for them covering tight ends, so this is a matchup advantage for the Panthers.
The one spot where the Giants have had a spark on defense is with their pass-rushing ends, especially now that Jason Pierre-Paul is back in the lineup, having missed the beginning of the season due to losing a finger in a fireworks accident. Both Pierre-Paul and Robert Ayers are in the top 10 of Pro Football Focus’ 4-3 end pass rushers, with Pierre-Paul especially putting up phenomenal per-game numbers, even if he’s yet to record an actual sack. Michael Oher and Mike Remmers will have their hands full on Sunday.
Defensive Game Plan
The marquee matchup of the week is Josh Norman against Odell Beckham Jr. Norman hasn’t allowed more than 50 yards receiving since Week 15 of 2014 when he was up against Vincent Jackson. Beckham, on the other hand, has gone more than 100 yards receiving in each of his last six games. Something’s got to give when Pro Bowler plays Pro Bowler.
If there’s one wrench the Giants can throw into that matchup, however, it’s the fact that they play Beckham in the slot about a quarter of the time, while Norman essentially never plays inside. Normally, the Panthers’ slot corner is Bene Benwikere, but he’s out for the season after fracturing his leg against Atlanta last week. Charles Tillman will be back to fill the starting role Benwikere has voided, but he’s not much of a slot corner, either.
That might, in theory, leave Cortland Finnegan as the primary slot corner this week. Finnegan was an All-Pro in 2008, but that was a long time ago—that would be a major matchup advantage for the Giants.
So, the Panthers are left with a conundrum—do they have Norman play out of position in order to take out the Giants’ biggest offensive threat? Or do they stick him on Reuben Randle and let lesser players try to handle Beckham in the slot? It’s an interesting strategic question, and if I were Giants offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, it’s one I would force the Panthers to answer all game long.
The Giants are coming off arguably their best passing day of the season against Miami. Eli Manning set a career high in completion percentage, going 27-for-31 for 337 yards and four touchdowns. Nine-tenths of the offense may be just Manning heaving the ball up toward Beckham, but when it's clicking, it's on fire. Shane Vereen is another passing threat out of the backfield, which they’ll need as well—they average only 3.6 yards per carry on the ground, so most of their successful short game comes on short passes through the air.
The Panthers should be able to clamp down on the rushing game, so the biggest threat is another big passing day from the Giants’ offense. It won’t be enough for a Manning-Beckham connection or two; someone else is going to have to step up on the Giants’ offense. Any hopes of pulling off the upset come from a big receiving day from someone unexpected—Randle or Hakeem Nicks—to go along with Beckham beating Norman.
Key Players
New York WR Odell Beckham Jr.
Beckham is one of the most dynamic receivers we’ve seen in recent NFL history. He’s only played 25 games in his NFL career, but he’s set records for receptions and receiving yards among players in their first 25 games—he’s setting records for fast starts, in other words. It’s not all big-play highlights and phenomenal impossible catches; he’s a consistent producer even beyond the highlights.
Norman is getting a workout in the last quarter of the season—matchups against Beckham, Mike Evans and two against Julio Jones. It’s his performance in big matchups like this that are going to earn him a huge contract this offseason.
Carolina WR Philly Brown
Ted Ginn was the major deep threat last week, but this may be the week for Philly Brown to shine. The Giants have one very solid corner in Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, who will likely be tasked with slowing Ginn down, leaving Brown against Prince Amukamara. Amukamara gave up a game-tying touchdown two weeks ago against the Jets and let Kenny Stills score a big touchdown reception last week.
Brown had three receptions for 59 yards last week, breaking a dry spell—his last 50-yard receiving game came back in Week 9, though the spell includes a couple of games missed with injuries. Against a sub-par pass defense, we could see Brown building on last week’s performance.
New York DE Jason Pierre-Paul
The Giants were shorthanded without Pierre-Paul, starting Kerry Wynn in his place. Wynn’s a solid run defender, but he’s not a pass-rusher—he had only 11 quarterback pressures all season, per PFF.
Pierre-Paul, on the other hand, has 31 quarterback pressures in just five games—one every 6.6 pass-rush snaps, which is fairly impressive. He’s having other issues with the club protecting his damaged right hand—he let Lamar Miller slip past him on Monday, for example—but he’s adjusting well in the pass rush and will be a dangerous weapon on Sunday.
Carolina DL Jared Allen and Kawann Short
The last time Carolina played the Giants, it recorded seven sacks against Manning. The departed Greg Hardy had three, with Star Lotulelei, Charles Johnson, Thomas Davis and Kawann Short picking up one apiece. It was a dominant performance.
They’ll look to repeat that performance this week. Hardy is of course gone, but Allen has recorded at least one sack in his last three appearances against the Giants, all as a member of the Minnesota Vikings. Short, meanwhile, will be dealing with a very good center in second-year player Weston Richburg. If the Giants are to have any chance of winning this game, they’ll have to do better at the point of attack than they did last time.
Prediction
This should be a good game and a good benchmark for the Panthers. The Giants still have hope and have at least one component of a talented team, that being a strong passing attack. They have experienced players who have come up big in big games before—a multiple-time Super Bowl winner at quarterback, an explosive playmaker at receiver and some strong pass-rushers.
There is a reason why the Giants are 6-7, however—they’re an average football team with an average record. If this game were in Carolina, you’d expect the Panthers to continue rolling without too many issues.
It’s not in Carolina, though—it’s the only cold-weather game Carolina is likely to face this season. The Panthers are somewhat fortunate there’s an El Nino in effect this year, as game-time temperatures are expected to be a relatively balmy 46 degrees on Sunday. That’s the lowest temperature the Panthers have faced this season, but it’s not exactly a frozen tundra.
Still, weather advantage or not, the Giants have been a tough out at home. They haven’t lost a home game by more than four points all season long. They play teams tight—even very good teams like the New England Patriots.
I expect another tight game this week, and it comes down to who executes the best at the ends of games. New York has had some serious clock management issues and other minor strategic blunders this season, while head coach Ron Rivera and the Panthers have had the best strategic game management this season, per Football Outsiders.
It’s little things like that that will decide the outcome in this one—an outcome which should see the Panthers coming out on top in a closely contested game.
Prediction: Carolina 28, New York 24
Bryan Knowles is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report, covering the Carolina Panthers. Follow him @BryKno on twitter.
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