Falcons vs. Panthers: Full Carolina Game Preview

Early in the season, a matchup between the Carolina Panthers and Atlanta Falcons would have been incredibly enticing.  Both teams were undefeated through Week 5, and even through Week 7, they had combined for only one loss. 

Yes, Atlanta had flashed some defensive deficiencies, and Carolina’s first four wins didn’t do much to change the general public’s mind on them, but undefeated is undefeated—it would have been a great matchup as both teams attempted to prove their hot start was for real.

Since Week 7, however, the teams have gone in very different directions.  The Panthers still haven’t lost, so they sit at 12-0.  Not only have they already clinched the NFC South, but they’ve also all but wrapped up home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs.  They’re being compared against the other great teams in NFL history, and even if the general consensus is that they don’t quite match up to some of the legendary teams of the past, they’re keeping great company in very rarified air.

The Falcons, on the other hand, have crumbled.  Their last win was on October 25th against the Tennessee Titans.  They’ve lost five straight games since then to fall to 6-6 and will require some very unlikely results the rest of the way to get into the playoffs—likely involving upsetting the undefeated Panthers in at least one of their two matchups.

Because of a quirk in the NFL’s scheduling policies, the Panthers and Falcons play twice in three weeks here at the end of the season.  Had even one of those matchups been in the first half of the season, it would have been a candidate for the best game of the week.  Instead, it features a team coasting to the finish line against a team floundering and about to be washed out of the playoff race.  Considering their very different trajectories since October, Odds Shark reports the Panthers are at least touchdown favorites everywhere.

That means they’ll have to fall back on the animosity of the "I-85 Rivalry" to carry this one.  Arguably Carolina’s biggest rival, it feels like the franchises always play close games regardless of record.  The Falcons own a 24-16 lead in the all-time series, but more than half of those games have been one-score results.  Last year, the division came down to the Week 17 matchup between the two teams, and the Panthers also clinched the division title in 2013 against the Falcons.

Even there, though, the Panthers hold an advantage—they’ve won four of the last five matchups against the Falcons, most recently in a 34-3 drubbing last December that was essentially over by halftime.  Before that, however, the Falcons had won five in a row. 

The lesson—as the New Orleans Saints reaffirmed last week—is that you need to throw the records and situation out when divisional rivals clash.  Yes, the Falcons have put together a near-historic meltdown, but as Ron Rivera mentioned after the Week 17 matchup last year, “record doesn’t matter.”

Can the Falcons do what the Saints couldn’t quite do last week and give the Panthers their first loss in over a calendar year?  Or will the Panthers continue their historic start, matching the 13-0 record that only eight NFL teams have ever achieved?  We’ll find out on Sunday.

Location: Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, N.C.

Time: 1 p.m. ET

TV: Fox, with Kevin Burkhardt and John Lynch on the call

Week 13 Results and Recaps

Bill Feig/Associated Press

The Panthers beat the Saints in a shootout.

The New Orleans Saints played the Carolina Panthers surprisingly close in a thrilling game that featured four lead changes in the fourth quarter alone.  Despite shooting themselves in the foot with multiple turnovers and arguably their worst defensive performance of the season, the Panthers ultimately held on to win 41-38.

Cam Newton’s stats were somewhat inflated due to the porous nature of the New Orleans defense, but it was still arguably the greatest game of his career.  Newton was 28-for-41 for 331 yards, with five touchdowns to just one interception.  He also rushed for 49 yards on the ground, including picking up a key fourth down late in the first quarter. 

Inside the Saints’ 40-yard line, Newton was perfect—he completed all nine of his passes for 97 yards and four touchdowns.  He also had at least 50 more yards—and likely quite a few more—on passes Ted Ginn and Devin Funchess dropped.  It was a fantastic performance, even if it was against a not-particularly threatening opponent.

Defensively, the Panthers just have not been able to stop the Saints this season.  The Saints racked up 334 total yards, after putting 380 yards in the Week 3 matchup between the two teams.  It hasn’t mattered if it was Drew Brees or Luke McCown behind center—the Saints have found gaps in Carolina’s coverage and have been able to move the ball well. 

The defense did just enough to keep the Panthers in the game for Newton’s heroics, but none of the defenders will be too sad they don’t have to play the Saints again this season.

The Falcons, meanwhile, lost their fifth consecutive game.  Jameis Winston hit Mike Evans with just 1:39 left in the game, and Lavonte David intercepted Matt Ryan on the Falcons’ final drive to propel the Tampa Bay Buccaneers over Atlanta 23-19.

The Falcons had started 5-0.  Since the NFL expanded to 12-team playoff in 1990, 90.7 percent of 5-0 teams have made the playoffs, but the Falcons now face a daunting climb.  They’ve been swept by the Buccaneers and lost to the Minnesota Vikings—another team they’re fighting for a wild-card berth. 

To make the playoffs, they’ll likely have to win out the rest of the way, which would include sweeping the Panthers, and nothing in their past month-and-a-half of play really suggests that that’s a likely scenario.

NFC South Standings

1. z-Carolina Panthers (12-0)
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-6, Over ATL via head-to-head)
3. Atlanta Falcons (6-6)
4. New Orleans Saints (4-8)

The last time the NFC South was clinched as early as Week 13 was in 2012, when the Atlanta Falcons rode a 13-3 record to the playoffs, while the rest of the division sputtered at 7-9.  Each of the last two seasons, the Panthers had clinched on the last day of the season.  This year has been slightly less competitive.

NFC Playoff Picture

1. z-Carolina Panthers (12-0)
2. Arizona Cardinals (10-2)
3. Green Bay Packers (8-4, over MIN via head-to-head)
4. Washington Redskins (5-7, over PHI and NYG via head-to-head)
5. Minnesota Vikings (8-4)
6. Seattle Seahawks (7-5)

Only three teams could mathematically bump the Panthers out of the NFC's top spot—the Arizona Cardinals, Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings.  The eventual NFC East winner can’t finish better than 9-7, so the Panthers have left them far behind.  None of these teams are particularly likely to catch the Panthers with only four weeks left in the season, but they all at least have a mathematical chance.

A Carolina win would eliminate Green Bay and Minnesota from that race, as would losses by either team.  The Cardinals will stay alive for one more week regardless, though with two games to make up and only four weeks to do it in, they are running out of time. 

The Panthers' magic number to clinch home-field advantage is three, meaning they could afford to lose any one of their remaining games and still get home-field advantage, regardless of what happens elsewhere.

News and Notes

Jonathan Bachman/Associated Press

Cam Newton is having a career year.

Carolina Can Clinch a Bye Week

At the moment, the Panthers have already clinched the NFC South title and have, at worst, the third seed, thanks to the NFC East's continued poor performance.  A bye week, however, would be a great thing to have—it’s not only a guaranteed pass through the first round of the playoffs, but it’s also a chance for players to get a week off, so they’ll be better prepared physically for the rigors of a postseason run.

There are two ways the Panthers can clinch a bye week this week.  They could simply beat the Falcons at home—the resulting 13-0 record would mean neither Green Bay nor Minnesota could possibly catch them.  Alternatively, the Packers could lose to the Dallas Cowboys and the Vikings could lose to the Cardinals. That would drop both NFC North teams to 8-5, thus pushing them below the Panthers permanently.

You may be thinking the Panthers' head-to-head victory over Green Bay would have already eliminated the Packers from catching the Panthers, but that’s not so.  Yes, the best the Packers could finish would be 12-4, which would tie the Panthers’ worst-possible record at 12-4, and then the Panthers would win the tiebreaker thanks to head-to-head results.  However, it’s possible for the Packers, Panthers and Cardinals to all tie at 12-4, which would throw out Carolina’s head-to-head win, thanks to the fact that they don’t play Arizona this season.

That would send the tiebreakers to conference record, where the Panthers would sit at 8-4, while both the Packers and Cardinals would sit at 9-3.  The Panthers would thus fall down to the third seed, thanks to their inferior record, while the Packers would clinch home-field advantage due to their head-to-head win over Arizona in this scenario.

That’s exceptionally unlikely to happen, but it is still mathematically possible.  A win or a Packers loss would eliminate even that slimmest of chances.

Cam Newton Wins NFC Offensive Player of the Week…Again

Cam Newton is going to have to clear off some room on his trophy case soon.  For the third time in five weeks, Newton was named the NFC Offensive Player of the Week for his five-touchdown performance against the New Orleans Saints.

Newton had previously won the award this season for his games against Green Bay and Washington, which means he has doubled his total of Offensive Player of the Week awards this season alone.

The last player to win the award three times in five weeks was Tom Brady in 2007.  This is significant for a number of reasons—Tom Brady’s 2007 team went 16-0 in the regular season, and Brady eventually picked up 49 of 50 votes for league MVP.

Newton’s stats this year aren’t as impressive as Brady’s 2007 numbers—which isn’t surprising, because Brady’s 2007 season set a then-NFL record with 50 touchdown passes, and it’s on the short list of greatest seasons by a quarterback in NFL history.  Fortunately, Newton doesn’t have to beat the ’07 edition of Brady to potentially win league MVP.

Newton has stepped up his passing game significantly this season.  His accuracy is still a little bit shy of the league's top passers, but he makes up for it with a powerful deep ball. 

According to PFF, Newton leads the league with 66.4 percent of his passing yards coming through the air, rather than via yards after the catch.  He’d be even higher if he had more reliable receivers—PFF charts him as having lost 365 yards to drops, behind only Tom Brady’s injury-plagued corps.  He’ll never reach the same efficiency or gross totals of some of the league's other top quarterbacks, but he’s at least a top-10 passer this season, and you can make arguments for higher.

What sets him apart, of course, is his success in the running game.  Yes, there are other quarterbacks who make plays with their legs—Russell Wilson in Seattle being the other obvious name—but no other quarterback is such a productive and integral part of his team’s running game.  Newton is running for 4.4 yards per carry and has more rushing touchdowns than the rest of the team combined.

That high level of efficiency is even more impressive when you consider how often the Panthers use Newton as a runner.  Newton runs the ball an average of nine times a game.  That’s the NFL's highest total this season of course—Wilson is second at 7.2 carries per game—but it goes beyond that. 

If he keeps that usage up, it would be a primary quarterback's highest total since Bobby Douglas of the 1972 Chicago Bears.  It would be the 20th-highest total in NFL history, with only Newton and Douglas putting up those numbers since 1950, and none even doing it with 300 pass attempts.  No quarterback in NFL history has been as integral a part of a running attack and put up passing numbers like Newton has.

You combine that historic level of rushing production, a solid passing skill, a still-undefeated team and the relatively questionable level of talent surrounding him and you have an argument for MVP.  It’s not a slam dunk, but if Newton keeps winning Player of the Week awards and the Panthers keep rolling, it will be harder and harder to vote for anyone else.

Ron Rivera: Best Strategic Coach in the NFL?

It’s hard to really judge a coaches’ performance outside of wins and losses, because tons of work happens behind the scenes.  There’s talent development, weekly game-planning, self-scouting regarding what went right and what went wrong during the games, the team's strategic focus, organization and content of practices and general leadership capabilities.  Deficiencies or strengths in any one area can have a massive impact on a team’s performance, but they’re hard to quantify, as they happen behind closed doors.

The one coaching element that can be quantified is their strategic decisions during the games.  Football Outsiders took a look at all 32 coaches’ in-game decision-making, in terms of fourth-down decision-making, clock management and challenges, and found that in 2015, Ron Rivera has been the NFL's best strategic coach.

Rivera has earned the nickname “Riverboat Ron” because he has a reputation for gambling on fourth down, but Rivera has always insisted he is a “calculated” risk-taker.  The numbers support him—NFL coaches as a breed are far, far too conservative on fourth down, according to Jim Armstrong via Football Outsiders.  A gambler compared to the average NFL coach is actually just playing the numbers correctly, and none have been better this season than Rivera.

This is surprising, because Rivera used to be among the NFL's most conservative coaches—up until 2013, Rivera’s aggressiveness was among the lowest in the NFL.  Since then, he has seen the light, and the Panthers have gone on to win three consecutive division titles.  I don’t believe that’s a coincidence.

Football Outsiders also charted Rivera with no time-management mistakes so far this season, and only one poor challenge.  Put it all together, and you have one of the NFL's best game-day coaches, at least when it comes to making the right strategic decisions.  He’s getting the best out of having weapons such as Cam Newton, Jonathan Stewart and Mike Tolbert in the rushing game and making a strong case for another Coach of the Year award.

Injuries

Chris Keane/Associated Press

Greg Olsen was one of many veterans who got a day off this week.

As has been true during the regular season, the Panthers’ injury list is rather light.  The Falcons have a slightly more robust injury list coming into latter part of the season.

Panthers Injuries

• DE Mario Addison (ankle) was a full participant at practice on Wednesday.  This is good news, as he was inactive last week after injuring himself against Dallas.  He said it looks good for his participation on Sunday, per Joe Person.
• CB Charles Tillman (knee) returned to practice on a limited basis.  This is a positive sign, as he’s missed the last three games and couldn’t practice last week.  He was testing the knee in practice, and there’s an outside chance he could return this week.  If not, Bene Benwikere will get another start, and Cortland Finengan will likely move up to be the primary nickelback.
• WR Brenton Bersin (groin) did not practice on Wednesday, but he is often a healthy scratch on game day when everyone is healthy.
• RB Jonathan Stewart, WR Jerricho Cotchery, WR Ted Ginn, TE Greg Olsen, C Ryan Kalil, DE Jared Allen, DT Dwan Edwards, LB Thomas Davis and S Roman Harper all did not practice on Wednesday, but all were listed as “non-injury.”  These are all veteran rest days as we approach the last quarter of a long season, and all should be available on Sunday.

Falcons Injuries

• S Ricardo Allen (shin) and S Kemal Ishmael (shoulder) were both newcomers on the injury list, but were full participants in practice.  Both are likely to play on Sunday.
• WR Julio Jones (knee) was listed as limited in practice, but told ESPN’s Vaughn McClure that it was “no big deal.”  He received treatment after the Tampa Bay game, but he should be good to go.  Rookie Justin Hardy would be in line for more snaps if Jones missed time, but that seems unlikely at this point.
• WR Devin Hester (toe) was also limited in practice with the turf toe injury that cost him the season's first 11 games.  He was the starting kick returner last week, and all signs point to him returning to that role.  Eric Weems was the kick returner in Hester’s absence, should something flare up this week.
• TE Jacob Tamme (shoulder) was limited on Wednesday, but he played a full series of snaps on Sunday and should be OK to start again this week.  If he remains limited on Thursday or Friday, Levine Toilolo may have to step in for him.
• K Matt Bryant (right quadriceps) returned to practice after missing the last two weeks, with Shayne Graham covering for him in his absence.  According to Falcons coach Dan Quinn, the team will see how Bryant progresses before deciding who will kick on Sunday.
• TE Tony Moeaki (hamstring) was held out of practice on Wednesday, after being inactive last week.  Until proven otherwise, he’d have to be considered very doubtful.
• G Chris Chester (shoulder/knee) missed practice on Wednesday.  He originally injured his shoulder against the Vikings two weeks ago, but the knee injury is new.  He played all of last week, but if he can’t return to practice, James Stone may have to step in for him.
• NT Paul Soliai (calf) also missed practice.  Last week, he was listed as limited with the same injury and having started, but only had 19 snaps, per PFF.  Rookie Grady Jarrett might get more snaps regardless of whether Soliai plays or not.

Key Matchups

Bob Leverone/Associated Press

Josh Norman and Julio Jones will renew their rivalry on Sunday.

RT Mike Remmers vs. DE Kroy Biermann

The Falcons’ best run defender is defensive end Kroy Biermann, who leads the team with 22 defensive stops, per PFF.  Biermann only has two sacks on the season—low for a 4-3 defensive end—but he’s been looking fairly sharp in Dan Quinn’s defensive system, setting the edge and preventing backs from getting around him.  He’s also been on a hot streak recently—he may only have 12 quarterback pressures on the season, but seven of them have come in the last three weeks, according to PFF.

Mike Remmers has not been on a hot streak recently.  He hasn’t been egregiously bad or anything, but he’s allowed 13 quarterback pressures over the past month, per PFF, and hasn’t been getting the same push off the line as he was earlier this season.  On most teams, Remmers’ slight slowdown wouldn’t be as noticeable, but when you’re 12-0, a slightly below-average performance stands out more.

DE Charles Johnson vs. RT Ryan Schraeder          

Ryan Schraeder has been a very solid tackle since taking over the right tackle spot midway through the season last year.  His success in Kyle Shanahan’s zone-blocking system goes a long way to explaining Devonta Freeman's and Tevin Coleman's success in the backfield this year—especially Freeman.  Atlanta has issues in the middle of its line with Mike Person, but its defensive tackle duo, Schraeder and Jake Matthews, is one of the league's best tandems.

Charles Johnson looks fully healed from the hamstring injury that sidelined him for more than half the season.  He played nearly every snap and was disruptive as a stand-up pass-rusher.  He’s back to the full form that’s made him the second-leading sacker in franchise history.  Johnson got the better of Schraeder last season, recording a couple of sacks against him.  We’ll if Schrader can win their third battle.

CB Josh Norman vs. WR Julio Jones

While voting doesn’t end for a few more weeks, it’s safe to say that this is a battle of Pro Bowlers.

Last year, Jones had 10 receptions for 107 yards in two games against the Panthers and Norman—not bad performances at all, but it's less than Jones normally gets.  Both players are looking forward to renewing their acquaintance.

Norman had this to say about Jones, per Vaughn McClure of ESPN:

"

I think (Jones) is a guy that gives me that ultimate, almost challenge, to where I can say that, man, every corner, every turn, he’s so explosive. So I got to just take it a notch higher to try and combat that. And he pushes me, man. He pushes you to your wildest dreams imaginable. So, it’s kind of one of those things where I love the competition. I’m excited for it. I'm ready. I’m anxious. I’m pumped.

"

Jones said that Norman is a “great player.  I know he’s going to come to play.  I will, too,” per David Newton of ESPN.

It should be the most exciting matchup to watch on Sunday.

X-Factors

Ted S. Warren/Associated Press

Will Cam Newton finally trump a Dan Quinn-led defense?

Panthers QB Cam Newton

Atlanta struggled last week with a Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback, Jameis Winston, who found success with both his arm and his legs.  Winston threw for 227 yards and a touchdown and ran for another score while leading the Buccaneers to a come-from-behind win.  Maybe Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Cam Newton will have the same success?

Before jumping to that conclusion, remember new Falcons head coach Dan Quinn was  Seattle's defensive coordinator for the past few years and remember the Panthers' historic struggles with the Seahawks.  While they beat Seattle earlier this season, they’ve yet to beat Quinn.  Part of that is the talent on Seattle’s defense, but Quinn knows a thing or two about slowing Newton down.  We’ll see if he can use his expertise to slow down Carolina’s MVP candidate.

Falcons LT Jake Matthews

Last year’s first-round pick has been solid protecting Matt Ryan’s blind side this season, but he didn’t play so well against Carolina as a rookie.  Per PFF, Matthews gave up two sacks, three quarterback hits and eight more quarterback hurries in the two matchups with Carolina last season.

That obviously can’t continue if Atlanta wants to upset the Panthers this week.  Matthews had an injured ankle for most of last season, and the improved health—as well as the normal improvement from a rookie season—has made Matthews a better player.  We’ll see if that improvement translates into better results against Carolina.

Prediction: Panthers 42, Falcons 7

Stacy Revere/Getty Images

Thomas Davis and the Panthers will keep rolling.

The last time these two teams faced off, the Falcons laid an egg in a defacto NFC South Championship Game.  The Week 17 matchup between these two teams was for a playoff berth—essentially a playoff game all in and of itself.  You would expect, with the stakes so high, that you’d get a high-quality game with tons of effort on both sides.

Instead, Carolina won in a laugher, 34-3, in a game that was over before halftime.  This year’s Panthers squad is better than that one was, as well.

Of course, this Atlanta squad hasn’t given up on Coach Quinn like they did on Mike Smith, either, and a new coach does mean a new outlook for a franchise.  However, after a hot start, the Falcons has been playing very poorly.  They’ve lost their past five games and often weren’t particularly competitive.  Their defense is below-average, quarterback Matt Ryan has really struggled and they’ve had a star wide receiver openly question the team’s play-calling.  Something is afoul in Atlanta.

Quinn’s a good coach, and there are talented players on the roster.  Atlanta will eventually turn things around.  But it won’t happen against a team running as hot as any in the league.  This feels like two teams on very different trajectories.  I could see the Falcons pulling the upset off at home, but on the road, it’s too much to ask.  The Panthers will win and clinch their bye week, setting an eye for potential home-field advantage.

They’ll need the win, too.  While the Minnesota Vikings could easily lose to the Arizona Cardinals on the road on Thursday, Green Bay is rightfully favored over Dallas.  It seems improbable that both would lose, so if the Panthers want to clinch a bye week this week, they’ll have to take care of business against Atlanta.

Bryan Knowles is a Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report, covering the Carolina Panthers.  Follow him @BryKno on Twitter.