Ultimate Guide to Champions League Matchday 5: The Crucial Qualification Clashes
Going into Matchday 5 we know three clubs have already qualified for the last 16 of the Champions League, while two are definitely out. For the rest, it’s all on the line.
Real Madrid, Manchester City and Zenit Saint Petersburg are the trio who can relax going into their fixtures—although all will want to finish on top of their groups. Borussia Monchengladbach and Maccabi Tel Aviv are the sides that can only now make the Europa League, but what about everyone else?
Looking to build on some accurate predictions last time out, here’s the ultimate guide.
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Tuesday, November 24
Group E
BATE Borisov vs. Bayer Leverkusen, Borisov Arena, 5 p.m. GMT / 12 p.m. ET
Following their two shootouts with Roma that produced 13 goals, Bayer Leverkusen know the challenge to finish behind Barcelona in Group E is likely to come down to how many times they can put the ball in the net against BATE Borisov.
The Belarusians have fared better than many people expected them to this season, with their 3-2 win over Roma on Matchday 2 serving as the highlight of their Champions League experience to date.
That result will loom large over a Leverkusen side that has lost all three European matches it has played on the road this season and that has the worrying tendency to concede goals late on.
But Leverkusen's greater need for a win and the news they are likely to hear from the Camp Nou later in the evening—a Barcelona win—suggests they should just have enough, even though it could be close.
Prediction: BATE 2-3 Bayer Leverkusen
Barcelona vs. Roma, Camp Nou, 7.45 p.m. GMT / 2.45 p.m. ET
Alessandro Florenzi’s stunning long-range strike ensured Champions League Matchday 1 exploded into life in the reverse fixture in the Italian capital, but ever since that 1-1 draw with Roma, Barcelona have been pretty much perfect.
Three straight wins mean they stand on the verge of qualification for the last 16 for the 12th consecutive season—something they’ll achieve with a draw here.
But with Lionel Messi back in action after his involvement in Saturday's remarkable 4-0 Clasico victory and Roma’s startling ability to concede goals on the road—they’ve scored six times in their two away games in this group but only taken one point—this is really only pointing toward one outcome.
Barcelona have won 28 of their last 35 Champions League home matches, and it should soon be 29 in 36.
Prediction: Barcelona 3-1 Roma
Group F
Arsenal vs. Dinamo Zagreb, Emirates Stadium, 7.45 p.m. GMT / 2.45 p.m. ET
The feelgood factor generated by Arsenal’s win over Bayern Munich on Matchday 3 quickly evaporated as the Gunners were blown away by the Bundesliga giants back at the Allianz Arena two weeks later, but all hope is not lost.
Although doubtless mindful of the 2-1 defeat they suffered in Zagreb in September that got their campaign off to the worst possible start, Arsenal must know they are a much better team than their Croatian opponents, with a home win coupled with Olympiakos’ likely defeat in Munich putting them firmly back in the race for second place.
And that home win really should arrive.
Dinamo have never gone past a group stage in 10 European campaigns in both the Champions League and Europa League, and their back-to-back losses to Olympiakos have showcased they are by far and away the weakest team in this group, something the Gunners should exploit despite their shock defeat at West Bromwich Albion on Saturday.
Prediction: Arsenal 3-1 Dinamo Zagreb
Bayern Munich vs. Olympiakos, Allianz Arena, 7.45 p.m. GMT / 2.45 p.m. ET
Yet Arsenal will be forgiven for wondering just what sort of events will be transpiring at the Allianz Arena in Munich, where a draw between Bayern and Olympiakos would ensure the Gunners—or Dinamo Zagreb for that matter—wouldn’t be able to catch either participant and would be out.
Both are certain to play to win, though, and if Pep Guardiola’s side do that to the best of their ability, then they will surely take the three points that, coupled with an Arsenal win at home to Dinamo, would set up a fascinating Matchday 6 visit to Greece for the Gunners.
Olympiakos—who have lost on five of their six Champions League trips to Germany—will doubtless be hoping Bayern take it easy on them, then, especially after Guardiola’s side beat them 3-0 in Greece on Matchday 1.
Arsenal shouldn’t worry, and a similar result should be expected here.
Prediction: Bayern Munich 4-0 Olympiakos
Group G
Porto vs. Dynamo Kiev, Estadio do Dragao, 7.45 p.m. GMT / 2.45 p.m. ET
Had it not been for Vitaliy Buyalskiy’s last-gasp equaliser in Kiev on Matchday 1, then Porto would have already qualified for the last 16.
That proposition looks as though it belongs in the realms of “when” rather than “if,” though, with the Portuguese giants closing in on advancing from what is their 20th group-stage campaign, with the bettering of Chelsea’s result in Tel Aviv on Matchday 5 enough to send them through.
As for Kiev, the trip to Group G’s most impressive side has come at a bad time, with a defeat seeing their chances of pipping Chelsea to second place severely reduced.
They’ll go to Portugal hopeful they can pull off a shock, but with the hosts suffering just one defeat in 13 games against Ukrainian opposition, a home win looks most likely.
Prediction: Porto 2-0 Dynamo Kiev
Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. Chelsea, Sammy Ofer Stadium, 7.45 p.m. GMT / 2.45 p.m. ET
Out of the competition and the only team in this season’s Champions League without a single point, Maccabi Tel Aviv won’t have much motivation for the visit of Chelsea, whose own campaign was revitalised by Willian’s late free-kick winner against Dynamo Kiev on Matchday 4.
The Blues were convincing 4-0 winners over the Israeli side at Stamford Bridge in September—back when we didn’t know just how bad that their season was going to prove to be—and they should feel confident of another victory here.
Indeed, with Dynamo Kiev the favourites to lose in Porto, a Chelsea victory, coupled with a Kiev defeat in Portugal, would put Jose Mourinho’s men through to the last 16—a rare sliver of good news in a campaign that has barely featured any of it.
Prediction: Maccabi Tel Aviv 0-1 Chelsea
Group H
Zenit Saint Petersburg vs. Valencia, Petrovsky Stadium, 5 p.m. GMT / 12 p.m. ET
The 3-2 win over Valencia on Matchday 1 has served as the foundation of Zenit Saint Petersburg’s terrific record in Group H, and they are the only club in this season’s competition to have won four matches out of four.
The simple question here, then, is when will the Russians stop winning? They only need a point to ensure they win the group, and Valencia want a win that could secure their own progress if Gent fail to beat Lyon elsewhere.
The upshot of all of that could be a face-saving draw for both, with Valencia taking the box seat for second spot behind a Zenit side whose eye might just be off the ball here.
Prediction: Zenit Saint Petersburg 1-1 Valencia
Lyon vs. Gent, Stade de Gerland, 7.45 p.m. GMT / 2.45 p.m. ET
It’s the final night of European football at the Stade de Gerland before Lyon move to their new stadium in the new year, and you’d think that, coupled with the fact the French club needs to win to have any hope of playing European matches in that new stadium this season, will inspire them against Gent.
It’s gone wrong for the Ligue 1 club since they failed to beat a Gent side that finished their Matchday 1 fixture with nine men, but with Alexandre Lacazette back in goalscoring form in the 3-0 derby win over Saint-Etienne before the international break, then hopes will be high.
Gent have done better than many expected during their maiden Champions League campaign, but on what is sure to be an emotional night, the hosts can deliver a first European win of the season and a last at the Gerland.
Prediction: Lyon 2-1 Gent
Wednesday, November 25
Group A
Malmo vs. Paris Saint-Germain, Swedbank Stadion, 7.45 p.m. GMT / 2.45 p.m. ET
A week after once again donning his Swedish Superman cape and leading his nation to Euro 2016, there might be a tinge of emotion enveloping the usual stony features of Zlatan Ibrahimovic as he faces hometown club Malmo for the first time since leaving for Ajax and football superstardom in 2001.
Paris Saint-Germain are about more than just Zlatan, though, and a victory in Sweden will ensure progression from Group A with a game to spare, allowing Laurent Blanc to rest players for the final match in the group against Shakhtar Donetsk.
Only a win will do for Malmo, and although they managed that against Shakhtar in their most recent home clash—Zlatan and friends promise to be a cut above.
Prediction: Malmo 0-2 Paris Saint-Germain
Shakhtar Donetsk vs. Real Madrid, Arena Lviv, 7.45 p.m. GMT / 2.45 p.m. ET
There are two main aspects to this clash between a side that has already qualified for the last 16 and one that probably won’t: Real’s attempts at winning the group and Shakhtar’s hopes of reaching the Europa League.
In the event, it will likely be the Spanish giants’ greater quality that wins out in the Ukraine, with Cristiano Ronaldo doubtless seeing this clash as another opportunity to extend his Champions League scoring record against a side he scored a hat-trick against on Matchday 1, even though a dark cloud hangs over both him and the club following their miserable outing against Barcelona.
That opening-night loss started a run of three straight defeats for one of the weaker Shakhtar sides we’ve seen in the Champions League, and although they convincingly saw off Malmo last time out, a fourth defeat in five seems on the cards.
Prediction: Shakhtar Donetsk 1-2 Real Madrid
Group B
CSKA Moscow vs. Wolfsburg, Arena Khimki, 5 p.m. GMT / 12 p.m. ET
This clash takes place six years to the day since CSKA Moscow beat Wolfsburg 2-1 in Moscow in a Champions League Group B clash, and if history is to repeat itself, then the Russians will give themselves a great chance of qualifying.
A defeat for CSKA would mean elimination after their narrow loss at Old Trafford last time out, but they’ve got a decent home record and face a Wolfsburg side who’ve been pointless on the road so far.
Indeed, home advantage has been crucial in this group, with seven of the eight fixtures ending in home wins. With CSKA unbeaten in their last four at home in the competition, then we could be set for another home victory here.
Prediction: CSKA Moscow 2-1 Wolfsburg
Manchester United vs. PSV Eindhoven, Old Trafford, 7.45 p.m. GMT / 2.45 p.m. ET
As mentioned above, this has very much been the group of home wins, and another one here would ensure Manchester United escape from it during their first season back at this level after a year away.
And that win should arrive despite an opening-night loss to PSV Eindhoven, which put United on the back foot in the group. They responded by registering home successes against Wolfsburg and CSKA Moscow.
On PSV’s part, they’ll be aware that a win would see them leap above United and put them in a strong position to win the group, but Louis van Gaal’s side have generally excelled in situations such as this of late, and they’ll keep things tight in order to register another win.
Prediction: Manchester United 2-0 PSV Eindhoven
Group C
Astana vs. Benfica, Astana Arena, 3 p.m. GMT / 10 a.m. ET
Astana’s goalless draw at home to Atletico Madrid was a standout result in the Kazakh club’s first Champions League campaign, but Benfica will arrive with qualification in mind.
Win, and that’s exactly what the Portuguese outfit will do in what has become a fairly messy Group C, but Benfica will surely see this as the perfect opportunity to reach what would be just a second last-16 berth in their last eight Champions League campaigns.
The hosts will seek to keep it tight in front of their own fans, but Benfica can do just about enough to earn the three points they need.
Prediction: Astana 0-1 Benfica
Atletico Madrid vs. Galatasaray, Vicente Calderon, 7.45 p.m. GMT / 2.45 p.m. ET
Galatasaray have to beat Atletico Madrid to keep their hopes of progression alive, but they haven’t won a Champions League away game in 32 months, losing eight of their last 10 matches on the road in the competition.
Atletico haven’t been in most free-flowing form this season, but the draw at Astana would have angered Diego Simeone and will ensure he’ll get his players fired up for this opportunity to secure progression in front of their own fans.
They only need a drew to do that, but they should go one better.
Prediction: Atletico Madrid 2-0 Galatasaray
Group D
Juventus vs. Manchester City, Juventus Stadium, 7.45 p.m. GMT / 2.45 p.m. ET
When Juventus beat Manchester City at the Etihad Stadium on Matchday 1, few would have thought it would be City that would've qualified for the last 16 before last season’s beaten finalists, but that’s exactly what happened when Manuel Pellegrini’s side impressively beat Sevilla last time out.
City’s level of performance might drop off a little, having already made it through and following their 4-1 hammering at the hands of a vibrant Liverpool side on Saturday, but with Sergio Aguero back fit and firing, they should make a game of it against the Serie A giants—who are one of five clubs entering Matchday 5 still unbeaten.
That record can still stand after Wednesday, although a draw should suit everybody.
Prediction: Juventus 1-1 Manchester City
Borussia Monchengladbach vs. Sevilla, Borussia-Park, 7.45 p.m. GMT / 2.45 p.m. ET
Borussia Monchengladbach are out already, and Sevilla will have more than one eye on heading back to the comfortable and fruitful setting of the Europa League—which they have won more than any other club—so this represents something of a second-tier fixture.
Neither side is likely to catch Manchester City or Juventus, but it could just be the greater need of the Spanish side comes through to win the points.
They’ve won on five of their eight trips to Germany, and would quite like to extend that record.
Prediction: Borussia Monchengladbach 1-2 Sevilla
