New York Jets vs. Houston Texans: Full New York Game Preview
Maybe it's the injuries. Maybe it's an improved level of competition. Maybe it's nothing more than a midseason rut.
But here's the thing: Whatever "it" is, it's not good, and the New York Jets better figure out a way to fix it...and quickly.
Since starting the season an impressive 4-1, the Jets have dropped three of their last four games. Just a month ago, New York was a game out of first place in the AFC East. Now? The team is 5-4 and just one game ahead of the Miami Dolphins in the division cellar.
This Sunday, the Jets will look to get back on track when they hit the road and head south for their first matchup against the Houston Texans in four years. The Texans, who will likely be without starting quarterback Brian Hoyer, have almost been a reverse of the Jets. Houston has won two of its last three and is presently tied with the Indianapolis Colts for first place in the AFC South.
So, what's going to happen when the Jets meet the Texans? What should you keep an eye on? Here's what to watch for Sunday.
Location: NRG Stadium, Houston
Time: 1 p.m. ET
TV: CBS
Week 10 Results and Recap
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The ball left Jets quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick's hand, and everyone in MetLife Stadium held his breath.
Late in the fourth quarter of last Thursday's game against the Buffalo Bills, New York had fought its way back to put itself in this position. Down five points, late in the fourth quarter, facing a fourth down inside the Bills 10-yard line.
The earlier turnovers that had put the Jets in an early deficit would be forgotten. Fitzpatrick's struggles throughout the first half would be erased. All that needed to happen was for this pass to reach its intended target.
It didn't. Instead, the ball bounced two yards away from tight end Kellen Davis. The Jets didn't win but rather lost 22-17.
"It was just like a flag route to the back of the end zone," Fitzpatrick said. "I don't know if he got bumped or caught up or what happened there."
Fitzpatrick finished the game 15-of-34 for 193 yards with a pair of touchdowns and two interceptions. Running back Chris Ivory, coming off three games in which he ran for a combined 84 yards, totaled 99 yards on 19 carries and caught two passes for 36 yards. Wideout Eric Decker led all receivers with six catches for 85 yards and a touchdown.
Jets defensive end Muhammad Wilkerson recorded six tackles and two sacks. Sheldon Richardson and David Harris split another.
The loss for the Jets was their third in four games and dropped their record to 5-4.
AFC East standings
- New England Patriots (9-0)
- Buffalo Bills (5-4)
- New York Jets (5-4)
- Miami Dolphins (4-5)
News and Notes
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Can Demario Davis snap out of his funk?
One player has caught the angry eye of many affiliated with the Jets. Every time Antonio Cromartie gives up a catch or touchdown, another voice bellows for the cornerback to be banished to the bench.
Replace him with Dee Milliner? Fine. Dexter McDougle? Sure. Marcus Williams? Why not.
Logistics and common sense matter not so long as No. 31 is off the field and anyone else is on it.
But truthfully? Cromartie may not be the most underperforming starter on the Jets' suddenly underperforming defense. That title, believe it or not, may belong to linebacker Demario Davis.
Now in his fourth NFL season, Davis has tallied impressive statistical numbers through the season's first nine games. The former third-round pick has 54 tackles, one sack, one fumble recovery and two passes defensed. Again, those numbers don't speak of a player who is struggling. Not at all.
But the analytical statistics? Well, they tell a far different story.
This season, Davis has graded out with a Pro Football Focus mark of minus-16.5. To put that number in perspective, he is ranked 32nd of 37 inside linebackers who have played at least 50 percent of their team's snaps. Even more damning is the fact Davis has missed 12 tackles after missing just 10 all of last year.
In coverage? He is struggling worse than he has at any one point in his career. While he's never been known as a tremendous cover linebacker, Davis is on pace to set career worsts in completion percentage when being targeted (75 percent) and quarterback rating (130.2). He has allowed 24 receptions on 32 targets for 264 yards and three touchdowns this year.
With the way the Jets defense is constructed, teams are beginning to target their running backs more and more. Cromartie, Darrelle Revis and Buster Skrine can handle receivers, and Marcus Gilchrist can handle the tight end. That leaves Davis one-on-one with a back.
That matchup hasn't worked in the Jets' favor often.
Between the poor performance in coverage and the abundance of missed tackles, Davis is starting to become a liability when he's on the field. While Jets coach Todd Bowles has been straightforward in the fact he isn't considering any lineup changes yet, if the team keeps losing and Davis keeps contributing to those losses, backup Erin Henderson may start to see more playing time.
Is Stevan Ridley ready for an increased workload?
Four weeks ago, the Jets activated Stevan Ridley off the PUP list, but he didn't suit up for the team's matchup against his former team, the New England Patriots.
Three weeks ago, he was again a healthy scratch for the Jets game against the Oakland Raiders.
Two weeks ago, Ridley sat again against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
This past Thursday against Buffalo? Ridley finally saw some action. This coming Sunday against Houston? He may be seeing even more.
With Zac Stacy headed for the injured reserve after fracturing his ankle last week, Ridley is suddenly the healthiest of the three running backs on the roster. And, with Bilal Powell still dealing with a hamstring injury, it seems likely he'll be the No. 2 back Sunday.
Against the Bills, Ridley, who is coming off a knee injury, knocked some of the rust off in his first game in nearly a calendar year. The former third-round pick rushed three times, highlighted by a three-yard run, in spot duty behind Ivory. But again, with Stacy out, who had been New York's third-down back, that means Ridley is the next man up.
"I'm not the magic piece to come in and just push everyone else to the side," Ridley said when he was originally activated. "No, I'm trying to come in and find my role, find my niche, whatever that may be. I'm gonna be the player that I am."
It's unclear just how much the Jets plan to use Ridley and if he will take over as the third-down back. Despite his 5'11", 220-pound frame, Ridley is known as a bruiser. He has a similar play style to Ivory. He's not, by any means, a scatback.
Can he be a pass-catcher? Someone who can pass-block? He may not have a choice.
Ryan Fitzpatrick back in the Jets lineup?
A day after the Jets fell to the Buffalo Bills, New York quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick was in the hospital.
No, it wasn't anything serious but rather a pre-planned procedure. After Fitzpatrick tore ligaments in his thumb in New York's loss to the Oakland Raiders, trainers and team doctors felt it would be best for the signal-caller to have the surgery sooner rather than later. The longer Fitzpatrick waited to repair the torn ligaments, the more likely it was for those ligaments to shrivel and shrink.
So, Fitzpatrick went under the knife Friday, hoping he'd be ready for the Week 10 battle with Houston nine days later. It appears as if that plan has come to fruition. Fitzpatrick said after Wednesday practice he planned to start.
How effective will he be? That's yet to be seen.
Fitzpatrick is coming off arguably his worst game of the season against the Bills. He completed only 15 of his 34 passes for 193 yards with a pair of touchdowns and two interceptions. He regularly threw to players who weren't open, or he missed those who were. It was ugly at times and a big reason the Jets found themselves in a hole to begin the second half.
The Jets don't need Fitzpatrick to be Superman but rather Clark Kent with a dash of "FitzMagic" every now and again. The season has been a back and forth of Fitzpatrick rotating between the two identities. When one works, the other doesn't.
Sunday will be Fitzpatrick's first game since having the procedure done. How will he play? That may be the biggest question surrounding the team.
Injury News
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Ryan Fitzpatrick: The Jets quarterback was listed as not participating in practice Wednesday, but he did go through individual drills. He took snaps from a trainer, threw into a net and essentially did work that didn't put any extra strain on his thumb. He says he'll play Sunday, and it's hard to doubt him.
Nick Mangold: Wednesday was a rest day for Mangold. Expect him to play Sunday.
Sheldon Richardson: Speaking at a charity event for teammate Muhammad Wilkerson, Richardson gave himself a day-to-day timetable to return. He expects to play but admitted he needs to get the "OK" from team doctors first.
Complete Jets Injury Report
Did Not Practice
Wednesday: S Dion Bailey (ankle), QB Ryan Fitzpatrick (left thumb), C Nick Mangold (neck, hand), CB Dee Milliner (illness), DT Sheldon Richardson (hamstring)
Limited Participation
Wednesday: CB Antonio Cromartie (quadricep), WR Brandon Marshall (toe, ankle), S Calvin Pryor (ankle), CB Darrelle Revis (hip)
Full Participation
Wednesday: WR Eric Decker (knee), CB Dexter McDougle (hand, ankle), RB Bilal Powell (ankle), CB Buster Skrine (shoulder, hand)
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Key Matchups
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Muhammad Wilkerson vs. J.J. Watt
Muhammad Wilkerson is on the final year of his five-year rookie deal...a contract the former first-round pick has completely outplayed.
There is no doubt from anyone (Jets coaches, teammates, general manager Mike Maccagnan, Wilkerson himself) that "Wilk-Shake" is deserving of a new contract. And, in a perfect world, the Jets would like to be the ones to reward him with such.
There's just one issue: Wilkerson believes he is worth X value and the Jets are only willing to pay Y value.
Wilkerson, who has recorded 38 tackles and seven sacks this season, is reportedly looking for a deal similar to that of the one Texans defensive end J.J. Watt signed last year, according to ESPN via the New York Post. That contract was a mind-blowing, six-year, $100 million deal.
The best way to prove he's deserving of such a payday? Outperform J.J. Watt in front of J.J. Watt.
While the only time Watt and Wilkerson will meet is for pre- and postgame handshakes, there's no doubt Wilkerson will be looking to light it up Sunday afternoon. Whatever Watt does, Wilk-Shake would like to do one better. Truthfully, Sunday will be fun to watch simply because two of the best in the game will be featured.
Who will have the better game? The one starving for a payday or the one who's already cashed in? We'll see.
T.J. Yates vs. Jets secondary
While the Texans claimed former Browns and Cowboys quarterback Brandon Weeden off the waiver wire Wednesday, if starter Brian Hoyer (concussion) can't go, journeyman T.J. Yates will get the start against the Jets.
Yates, 28, was originally drafted by the Texans in the fifth round of the 2011 NFL draft. He played three years with the team before signing with the Atlanta Falcons a season ago. He returned to Houston earlier this year when the Texans parted ways with Ryan Mallett.
In his five-year career, Yates has attempted 181 passes and completed 109 of them (60.2 percent). He's thrown for 1,233 yards with four touchdowns and seven interceptions and has a quarterback rating of 71.9. In the Texans' surprising victory over the previously unbeaten Cincinnati Bengals last week, Yates threw the game-clinching touchdown pass to DeAndre Hopkins.
While Yates does have a playoff victory under his belt (he filled in for an injured Matt Schaub his rookie year), he's largely an unproven NFL quarterback. In fact, since his rookie year, he has attempted just 46 passes.
Yates' first start of the season will be quite the challenging one, as the Jets defense is one of the best in the league. For a team like New York that is desperately looking for a victory, the best way to grab one will be to make Yates' life miserable.
Matchup X-Factor
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Whenever the subject of the Jets offense has been brought up, it's been easy to find positive storylines.
There's Brandon Marshall, the Jets' first true "No. 1" wideout since Keyshawn Johnson left town. There's Chris Ivory, whom Marshall called the "best running back in the NFL." There's Ryan Fitzpatrick, the journeyman quarterback who has captivated the fanbase with "FitzMagic."
But throughout it all, the one player whose name is rarely mentioned is the one who may be having the most consistent season of them all. Despite dealing with a few nagging injuries, wideout Eric Decker continues to perform every week.
This season, Decker has pulled in 42 passes for 557 yards and seven touchdowns in eight games. He's on pace to finish the year with 74 receptions for 990 yards and 12 scores. Not bad for the "product of Peyton Manning."
Whenever the Jets have needed a play, Fitzpatrick has looked for Decker. Whenever the Jets have needed a first down, Fitzpatrick has looked for Decker. He's been the quarterback's safety blanket. It's one of the reasons Decker has been finding himself in the end zone so much lately.
In every game Decker has played this year, the wideout has found the end zone in all but one. Against the Texans, expect that streak to continue.
With the defense likely focusing in on Marshall and Ivory, Decker will again see loads of single coverage. Add in an extra 10 days of rest to help his ailing knee, and he could be in for a monster game this Sunday.
While Decker has been dominant this season, he's yet to cross the century mark in receiving yards in any game. That will happen against the Texans.
Prediction: Jets 24, Texans 6
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From top to bottom, the Jets are a better team than the Texans.
Whether Hoyer plays or not, New York has the better quarterback. The same goes for the running back, receiving corps and offensive line. The Jets have the better defensive front and secondary. They are the better team. They're more talented and experienced.
On Sunday, expect all of that to show.
This is exactly what the doctor ordered for the Jets, who need a victory. The defense will dominate from the opening whistle until the final seconds. Fitzpatrick, still recovering from his injured thumb, will score enough points to put the Jets in a comfortable position throughout.
Backup quarterback T.J. Yates will toss a few interceptions, the Texans running game will never get going, and the outcome will not once be in doubt.
Prediction: Jets 24, Texans 6
Connor Hughes is the New York Jets beat writer for the Journal Inquirer and Scout.com. All quotes, practice observations and advanced stats referenced are gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted.
Connor can be reached on Twitter (@Connor_J_Hughes) or via email (Connor_j_hughes@yahoo.com)
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