Cleveland Browns vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Pittsburgh Steelers own 11 straight victories over the division rival Cleveland Browns at Heinz Field, going 8-3 against the spread in the process. But the Steelers are again playing without starting quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. Pittsburgh hopes to pick up a victory without Big Ben when they host the Browns on Sunday afternoon.

Point spread: The Steelers opened as 4.5-point favorites; the total was 41 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 24.2-18.6 Steelers

Why the Browns can cover the spread

Cleveland is 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS over its last four games, but it's had some chances. The Browns took the undefeated Denver Broncos to overtime a month ago, losing 26-23, and covered as four-point home dogs. They then lost at St. Louis 24-6 but outgained the Rams on the day. The following week, they led the Arizona Cardinals 20-7 before getting shut out in the second half.

And last week, they lost at Cincinnati 31-10, although they trailed the Bengals just 17-10 through three quarters.

Cleveland has been forced to juggle at quarterback this season between banged-up starter Josh McCown and backup Johnny Manziel. On the season, the Browns are 3-3 ATS in games that McCown takes the majority of the snaps, averaging 22 points per game. They've averaged only 16 points in their three Manziel-heavy games.

Why the Steelers can cover the spread

Pittsburgh just picked up a much-needed victory last week, outlasting the Oakland Raiders 38-35. The Steelers had lost two games in a row, including a divisional decision to Cincinnati in Roethlisberger's return two weeks ago. The Raiders are contending with Pittsburgh in the AFC Wild Card race. So the victory came as a big sigh of relief.

Unfortunately, it also came at a price, as Big Ben suffered a foot injury that will now keep him out for several more games.

The Steelers weathered the first storm without Roethlisberger earlier this season, splitting four games outright, going 2-1-1 ATS with a combination of Michael Vick and Landry Jones behind center. One of those victories came against NFC West-leading Arizona, and one of the losses came in overtime to the Baltimore Ravens. So the Steelers are hoping to do at least as well over the next few weeks as Big Ben recovers.

Smart pick

With the current situation, Cleveland owns the advantage at quarterback with McCown, even as he nurses sore ribs. Also, Pittsburgh got outgained by an average of 85 yards per game in each of the four games Roethlisberger missed. Take the Browns, plus the points.

Betting trends

• The Browns are 4-9 SU in their last 13 games before the bye.
• The Browns are 0-11 SU in their last 11 games on the road against the Steelers.
• The Steelers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games in November.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.