Jacksonville Jaguars vs. New York Jets: What's the Game Plan for New York?

The New York Jets need a win. Bad. 

After dropping games to the New England Patriots and Oakland Raiders in back-to-back weeks, the Jets host the Jaguars this Sunday at MetLife Stadium and look to get back on the winning way of things. For a season that began so promising at 4-1, the Jets are now just one loss away from being .500. 

So, what do the Jets need to do to get the win? Here's the game plan for a Jets victory on Sunday.

Offensive Game Plan

Through the first seven games of the season, the Jets' offensive game plan has been relatively the same. Sure, how and what an opposing defense ran dictated a bit of what the Jets' offense would do, but still, the same goals always remained...

The Jets wanted to establish the run, feed Chris Ivory the ball and never ask too much out of quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick. 

In the four victories, the Jets executed that game plan near flawlessly, with Ivory averaging 115 yards rushing on the ground. In their three losses? Eh, not as much. Ivory didn't play in the loss to the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 3, but in the last two games, he and the Jets rushing attack as a whole were virtually nonexistent. 

With the Jets' top priority being to establish the run, opponents have made it their No. 1, 2 and 3 priorities to ensure that doesn't happen. That means loading the box with an extra defender.

Why? Well, because when teams put just seven players in the box, plays like this happen:

Thus, the box stacking. The New England Patriots did it regularly; so did the Oakland Raiders. The Jets, to this point, haven't been able to find a counter; and not having all-pro center Nick Mangold a week ago certainly didn't help. 

Offensive coordinator Chan Gailey said earlier this year he tells his backs that the offensive line, fullbacks and tight ends will take care of the first seven players, but the eighth is up to the back to make miss. But when staring at fronts like this? Well, that may be easier said than done. 

"I expect to see a lot of guys in the box," said Ivory, who's rushed for 518 yards and four scores this year. "We have to do a better job up front and just know our assignments. We prepared well this week. Maybe it will show out on the field."

Against Jacksonville, it'll be more important than ever for the Jets find a way to jump-start Ivory and the rushing attack. Fitzpatrick will start, despite the torn ligaments in his thumb, but it's not ideal to have him drop back 30-45 times Sunday. Every time he throws the ball, it increases the chances he'll take a hit. The more times Fitzpatrick is hit, the more likely his thumb gets hit too. 

While Fitzpatrick confirmed Wednesday he can't do any further damage to his thumb, the Jets still want to minimize the contact to it. 

The best way to prevent that from happening? Run. The. Ball. And while the success hasn't been there as of late, Gailey said there needs to be no change in how Ivory is playing. As the offensive coordinator put it, just keep things status quo, and the success will come back soon enough. 

"No, there’s nothing (Ivory) needs to do," Gailey said. "He just needs to keep running hard. It’ll come."

Defensive Game Plan

It's a bit strange looking at the Jacksonville Jaguars because, on offense, the team has all the pieces to be one of the better groups in the NFL. The Jags have an up-and-coming young quarterback who seems to get better each day, a rookie running back who is learning the ropes, two receivers who are capable of stretching the field and a top-notch tight end. 

Things just haven't all come together yet. When they do, look out. In a way, the Jaguars aren't much different than the Oakland Raiders. Things have clicked for Oakland, which explains the Raiders' success this year. Once the same happens for Jacksonville, the same success will follow.

But even though it's just been in spurts for the 2-5 Jaguars, the team has still flashed big-play abilities on the offensive side of the ball. Specifically, quarterback Blake Bortles has shown the ability to stretch the ball down the field to playmaking receivers Allen Hurns and Allen Robinson. 

This year, the two Allens have combined for 65 receptions for 1,099 yards and 11 touchdowns. Both players are on pace to have over 1,000 yards receiving and score double-digit touchdowns. But it's not just the numbers that are impressive with the two, but how they're making their grabs. 

Allen and Allen have been incredible this season at stretching the field and catching the long ball. Hurns is averaging 16.5 yards per reception, while Robinson is at 17.2. That's really good. Here's how those two numbers stack up to other top-flight wideouts in the NFL this year:

Player Name	Team	YPC Average
Allen Robinson	Jaguars	17.2
Allen Hurns	Jaguars	16.5
A.J. Green	Bengals	14.0
Antonio Brown	Steelers	13.8
Odell Beckham Jr.	Giants	13.1
Julio Jones	Falcons	12.7
DeAndre Hopkins	Texans	12.3

Now, here's the catch to the deep-play passing attack the Jaguars have dazzled fans with. In order for those players to get down the field to make those impressive grabs, they need to, well, get down the field. 

In order for them to get down the field, Bortles needs to hold the ball long enough for them to get there. 

And the longer he holds the ball, the longer an opposing defense has to get to the quarterback. 

Following along?

In 2015, according to Pro Football Focus, Bortles has averaged 2.64 seconds from the snap to the time the ball leaves his hands. That's the fifth-slowest in the NFL. This season, he has been sacked 19 times. That's the eighth-most in the NFL. 

That's not a coincidence—that's a related commonality. 

The Jets defense this year matches up perfectly with the Jaguars offense. See, New York has two cornerbacks capable of running with (and in Darrelle Revis' case, shutting down) Hurns and Robinson. The Jets have three defensive linemen in Leonard Williams, Muhammad Wilkerson and Sheldon Richardson who, when given enough time, can make a quarterback's life hell.

So long as the Jets keep running back T.J. Yeldon in check, Bortles may be in for his worst game of the season. The Jets defense simply matches up perfectly with the Jaguars offense. 

Then there's also that little fact that New York is coming off its worst statistical game of the season, which left several of the veteran and prideful defenders embarrassed following a "disgusting" performance, in the words of David Harris. The Jets are dying to get that taste out of their mouths...and Jacksonville represents the first opportunity to do so.

Key Matchups and Players

Antonio Cromartie, Jets Cornerback

Revis is having quite the return tour in his second stint with the Jets. In fact, the cornerback has picked up right where he left off and is enjoying his best statistical year in quite some time. 

But Antonio Cromartie? The Robin to Revis' Batman, who also returned to New York this offseason? Well, things haven't been going as smoothly. 

Here are the PFF numbers: In seven games, Cromartie has allowed 21 completions, 387 yards, 166 yards after the catch, five touchdowns and a quarterback rating of 132.5, and he has yet to record an interception and has deflected just three passes. Of cornerbacks who have played at least 50 percent of their team's snaps, Cromartie is ranked 60th. His five touchdowns allowed are the third-most in the league. 

Again, not pretty. Is Cromartie finally over the hill? Washed up? Done?

"I don't worry about any of that," he said. "I know my talent."

For the first time this season, Jets coach Todd Bowles has started fielding questions about a possible lineup change on the defensive side of the ball. And with former first-round pick Dee Milliner now eligible to return off short-term injured reserve, a possible replacement for Cromartie is waiting in the wings. 

While Cromartie hasn't been yanked from the lineup yet, and he likely won't be even after a bad game this weekend, the leash is without a doubt getting shorter. And truth be told, with his four-year contract not guaranteed after this year, he may be playing for a bit more than just his starting job. 

T.J. Yeldon, Jaguars Running Back

Uncredited/Associated Press

The first three games of Yeldon's rookie season sang one tune, as the back looked challenged by the transition from college to the NFL. 

His last three? Yeldon has adjusted just fine. 

He has gone over 100 yards twice in the Jaguars' last three games, including a career-high 115 yards against a stingy Buffalo Bills defense on Oct. 25. He's getting comfortable, and even with Bortles under center, and Hurns and Robinson split wide, Yeldon may be the key to the Jags offensive attack. 

See, building off the earlier point about Bortles holding onto the ball an awful long time, if a defense is able to anticipate the pass coming, and thus pin its ears back and rush the passer, Bortles will get killed. But if the Jags can establish a rushing attack to slow the pass rush, that's when things would start clicking. 

Suddenly, Bortles doesn't have to just take a five-step drop to let his receivers get down the field but can work in the play action instead. If that happens, defenders can't pin their ears back because they have to hesitate just slightly to make sure it is a pass and not a run. 

All of that happens with Yeldon establishing a run. If he can't get going? It's likely going to be a long day for the Jacksonville offense. 

With a Jets Win

It'll be big. Sitting at 4-3, the Jets can't really afford to suffer another loss. This isn't a must-win, but it's about as close to a must-win as you can get without a game actually being a must-win. The Jaguars aren't going to be a playoff team, but this one is more important because the Jets just can't suffer a third straight loss. 

With a Jets Loss

The sirens will be sounding, and red flags will be waving. Truthfully, the Jets can't afford to suffer another loss. If the Jaguars win Sunday, the Jets fall to 4-4 with games against the revitalized Dolphins, Patriots, the Tony Romo-led Cowboys and Rex Ryan's Bills (twice) on tap. None of those are easy games. If the Jets want a shot at the postseason, they'll have to win the games they're supposed to win.

That's this game. 

Prediction

Darron Cummings/Associated Press

The Jets defense was embarrassed, humiliated and beaten down by the Oakland Raiders a week ago. It wasn't pretty, especially from a unit that came in boasting claims as one of the league's best. 

Quarterback Derek Carr led Oakland on three straight scoring drives to begin the game and tossed four touchdowns against the vaunted Jets defense. The defense missed more than 20 tackles, according to Bowles.

It was a pathetic performance. In fact, had the Jets defense been a primarily younger group, Sunday's game may have been one that took weeks or a month to get over. It was that bad. 

But this Jets defense isn't loaded with youth but rather filled with veterans. And that Raiders game, one that linebacker David Harris called "disgusting," will be the fuel to the Jets' fire against the Jaguars. 

After being embarrassed, the Jets want nothing more than to erase the Oakland game from everyone's memory. Against Jacksonville, expect the unit to play like one possessed. Multiple turnovers, multiple sacks and even a defensive touchdown are likely. 

Offensively, like is the case every week, look for the Jets to do enough. The team will be conservative with Fitzpatrick back there, but the running game will be improved enough to lead the attack. 

Defense dominates, offense rides along. 

Final Score: Jets 23, Jaguars 10

Connor Hughes is the New York Jets beat writer for the Journal Inquirer and Scout.com. All quotes, practice observations and advanced stats referenced are gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted.

Connor can be reached on Twitter (@Connor_J_Hughes) or via email ([e-mail]).