Broncos vs. Colts: What's the Game Plan for Indianapolis?

For three quarters against the Carolina Panthers, the Indianapolis Colts looked like nothing had changed and their season was on a downward spiral of turnovers and poor offensive execution. But then, for at least a quarter, things once again looked bright.

Against one of the league’s best teams, the Colts ran roughshod, scoring at will and slowing down Cam Newton and company to tie the game and force overtime. It wasn’t enough in the end, but it was a brief sign of what Indianapolis is capable of when everything falls correctly.

This Sunday the Colts are going to need things to fall perfectly for more than just a quarter though, as the undefeated Denver Broncos come to town ready to continue their hot start to the season.

Rob Chudzinski is now in charge of the Colts offense, but against the league’s top defense it might not matter, especially if Andrew Luck continues to turn the ball over at such an alarming rate. If Peyton Manning is in top form once again, the Broncos could be too much for this Colts team to handle.

Let’s take a look at how Indianapolis could go about trying to pull off such a monumental upset Sunday.

Offensive Game Plan

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Let’s be honest: If anyone knew how to beat the Denver defense, that person would be making a lot of money in the NFL right now. After shutting down teams across the league through the first few weeks of the season, Denver put in its best performance yet against the Green Bay Packers last Sunday.

Making Aaron Rodgers look more like a passerby who wandered into the locker room than the league MVP, the Broncos proved they have no weaknesses and are truly the top defense in the league.

So how do the turnover-prone Indianapolis Colts find a way to beat that? They have a couple of options, although both don’t seem entirely likely to take place, even with a change at offensive coordinator.

This year the Colts offense has been effective when one of two things have occurred. Either Frank Gore runs the ball more than normal, or Andrew Luck and the offense implement a two-minute-drill-style offense, often for a quarter or more because of big deficits.

The latter doesn’t seem plausible anymore with T.Y. Hilton’s injury—even if he does play, he won’t be 100 percent, and that changes the entire Colts passing scheme—so running Gore into the ground might be the best option.

The Broncos are the top team in the league in pass defense and third in run defense, so while it might not be ideal, they are slightly more vulnerable to a strong rushing attack, which Gore can provide if he gets the opportunity.

Defensive Game Plan

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Last week against the Panthers, the Colts had by far their best defensive performance of the season. The secondary didn’t look paper-thin, there was an increased pass rush, and the Carolina running game never had a chance to take hold.

But game-planning for torrential downpours, like the one in Charlotte, North Carolina, that helped the Colts, isn’t exactly possible each and every week, so Indianapolis needs to come up with a way to replicate its performance against the Broncos.

Denver hasn’t had the strongest start to the season offensively, with Manning and company struggling for a few weeks before seemingly putting it all together against Green Bay. The Colts defense is weaker than the Packers too, so it could be another big night for Manning if all goes well once again.

Indianapolis should be capable of stopping a running game that has had its ups and downs all season, but it is the threat of Manning through the air that could see things get out of hand quickly at Lucas Oil Stadium.

Hoping that Vontae Davis stops Demaryius Thomas and Greg Toler doesn’t allow whichever receiver he is assigned to cover to get open every play isn’t going to be enough to stop the passing game. The Colts need a strong pass rush to try to pressure Manning into a few turnovers of his own.

The Broncos have turned the ball over 12 times this season—which is a bit less than the Colts' outrageous 19 turnovers—and if Robert Mathis and company get the chance to blitz a few times and pressure Manning, increasing that number could turn the tide of the game.

Key Matchups and Players

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LB Robert Mathis

This season, the Indianapolis Colts have been careful with the amount of time Mathis has spent on the field after his Achilles injury more than a year ago. He was limited to third-down work in the early stretches, and it was only in recent weeks that the Colts have unleashed the former All-Pro on a more regular basis.

Despite being limited for most of the season, Mathis has four of the team's 12 sacks and has shown no signs of slowing down after the injury. If the Colts can get a pass rush going, it all starts with Mathis, who should see as much of the field as he can on Sunday.

RB Frank Gore

The Colts brought in during the offseason with the hopes of alleviating the struggles in the running game over the past half-decade, but despite his rushing acumen and resume, Indianapolis has been hesitant to use him as much as it needs to.

Only averaging 64.5 yards per game and being limited by the Colts' propensity to fall behind early in nearly every game, the veteran running back needs to have an increased role for Indianapolis going forward. The plan was to save him for a deep postseason run before the year started, but if he doesn’t see more touches, there might not be a postseason run at all.

WR Donte Moncrief

Even if Hilton is able to play against the Broncos, there is no telling how effective he will be against the top pass defense in the league. With their top receiver being limited, the Colts should turn to Donte Moncrief, who needs to show that the organization's faith in him is well-founded.

Moncrief has put together an outstanding season thus far, ranking second on the team in yards and yards after the catch and holding the team lead with five touchdowns, but he will need to elevate his game even more against Denver. If things get out of hands quickly, it could fall to Moncrief to be Luck’s top target to get the team out of a jam.

CB Greg Toler

One week there won’t be any talk about the cornerbacks, but that's not this week. Davis against Demaryius Thomas is one of the best matchups in the league and where all eyes will be focused, but it isn’t the pairing that will decide the game. That is Toler versus whoever gets the pleasure of trying to beat him.

Toler has been awful since returning from injury a few weeks ago and will match up against Emmanuel Sanders, which leaves the Colts in a tough spot. We say it nearly every week, but until Toler improves his play, it is going to be tough for Indianapolis to break out of its funk.

Prediction

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Despite how the Colts accounted for themselves in each of their two matchups against undefeated teams this season—playing well early against New England and fighting back late against Carolina—just too much can go wrong against the Broncos for Indianapolis to have much of a chance at reversing its fortunes.

Whether it be the outstanding Broncos defense and the turnovers problems of Luck or the emotion of Manning possibly playing in his final game at Lucas Oil Stadium, Denver carries a huge advantage into Sunday’s matchup.

If, and it’s a big if, the Colts can cut down on the turnovers, get consistent pressure on Manning and utilize Gore to his full potential, they might have chance to keep things close and possibly even pull off the upset.

But unless Indianapolis plays at its very best and the Broncos revert back to the team that was barely squeaking by opponents early in the season, things won’t go well for the struggling Colts.

Expect a big game out of Manning like he had against Green Bay and the Broncos defense to stifle any chance of a late Colts comeback.

Prediction: Broncos 35, Colts 14