Jacksonville Jaguars vs. New York Jets Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The New York Jets (4-3) hope to end a two-game losing streak Sunday when they host the Jacksonville Jaguars (2-5), who are coming off their bye week. The Jaguars are just a half-game out of first place in the AFC South following a 34-31 win over the Buffalo Bills in London as three-point underdogs, and they will be trying to beat an AFC East opponent for the second straight game.

Point spread: This game was off the board early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 29.7-17.3 Jets

Why the Jaguars can cover the spread

Jacksonville gained a lot of confidence from the victory against Buffalo and has a real shot to win the division based on how poorly the two-time defending AFC South champion Indianapolis Colts have played this year. The Jaguars have proven to be more competitive this season, with a solid offense that has kept them in most games.

Gus Bradley’s name has also been mentioned in speculation regarding who will be the next head coach fired, and he must be feeling some pressure to get the defense turned around. Bradley is the former defensive coordinator of the Seattle Seahawks, and he has likely used the bye week to look at tape of his team blowing a big lead against the Bills so he can fix those issues.

Fortunately, the Jets are offensively challenged right now with the status of quarterbacks Ryan Fitzpatrick and Geno Smith up in the air due to injuries.

Why the Jets can cover the spread

No matter who starts at quarterback for New York, the team’s defense remains one of the NFL’s best and can limit Jacksonville’s offense here. Jaguars quarterback Blake Bortles completed just 13 of 29 passes for 182 yards against the Bills and will be facing a much tougher secondary here, led by cornerback Darrelle Revis.

The Jets are 7-2-1 against the spread going back to last season, with the two losses coming last week on the road against the Oakland Raiders and in Week 3 at home versus the Philadelphia Eagles. In their other two home games, they outscored the Cleveland Browns and Washington Redskins by a combined score of 65-30.

Smart pick

Jacksonville is 6-2 ATS in the past eight meetings with New York, and the uncertain quarterback situation for the Jets makes it hard to back them in this spot. The Jaguars are an improved team and should be able to take advantage of the situation, just like they did with EJ Manuel starting for Buffalo.

New York’s 34-20 loss at Oakland opened some eyes, and the team is just 1-11 ATS in its last 12 after losing as a favorite. For those reasons, back Jacksonville to stay close and cover the spread.

Betting trends

The Jaguars are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games against the Jets.

The Jaguars are 0-4 straight up and ATS in their last four games after winning as an underdog.

The Jets are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games after losing as favorites.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, and all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.