Colts vs. Panthers: Full Carolina Game Preview

The Carolina Panthers (6-0) look to keep their unprecedented success going as they enter their second prime-time game in back-to-back weeks, taking on the Indianapolis Colts (3-4) on Monday Night Football.

Not only does the Panthers’ 6-0 start represent the best start in franchise history, but they’re also riding a 10-game regular-season winning streak, stretching back to December of 2014. That’s the longest active winning streak in the NFL, and it’s beginning to turn around public opinion on the franchise. While the NFC South was the laughingstock of the NFL last season, with a sub-.500 division winner, the Panthers’ extended and continued success is becoming harder and harder to ignore.

Bleacher Report, ESPN, Fox, CBS, Pro Football Talk, NFL.com—everyone has the Panthers as a top-five team in this week’s power rankings. While last year they were an argument for reseeding the playoffs, this year they are a legitimate contender.

Instead, the title of worst division has been passed off to the AFC South. All four teams in the division sit under .500, and the Colts’ 3-4 record is inflated by playing the other teams in the division already. Take out divisional games, and the entire division is a combined 4-15 this season.

Just to put that into context, the next worst division in football, the NFC East, has a combined out-of-division record of 6-9, while the NFC South actually has done the best outside the division at 13-5.

The Colts, meanwhile, are falling apart at the seams. Sports Illustrated suggests that there could be a San Francisco 49ers-style complete exodus this offseason. Poor personnel moves—trading a first-round pick for Trent Richardson last season, for example—have prevented the Colts from really adding to their roster, and owner Jim Irsay is “seriously discussing” the possibility of firing Chuck Pagano during the season, according to B/R’s Jason Cole. It puts the Panthers’ worry of not having beaten a team with a winning record somewhat into perspective.

Accordingly, the oddsmakers are leaning toward the Panthers. According to Odds Shark, the Panthers opened as 5.5-point favorites, and that’s ballooned to over a touchdown in some places. The storyline is that we’re looking at two teams trending in opposite directions, and predictions are coming in accordingly.

Will the Panthers improve to 7-0 and set up a potential clash of the unbeatens next week, or will the Colts band together and get off their two-game losing streak? We’ll find out on Monday night.

Location: Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, N.C.

Time: 8:30 p.m. Monday Night

TV: ESPN, with Mike Tirico and Jon Gruden on the call

Week 7 Results and Recap

Bob Leverone/Associated Press

The Panthers continued their winning ways against Philadelphia last week.

The Panthers continued their winning ways, getting revenge for last year’s prime-time blowout by beating the Philadelphia Eagles 27-16.

While they didn’t quite match the nine sacks the Eagles put up on them in last year’s contest, they did turn the tables significantly by bringing Sam Bradford down five times. Kawann Short continued his All-Pro-caliber season of dominating defensive lines, Josh Norman blanketed his receivers so much he was only targeted twice all game, per PFF, and Luke Kuechly and Thomas Davis were back to their normal selves patrolling the middle of the field.

The Panthers even held the Eagles to six points off three turnovers, which is always a win for the defense. It was an all-out defensive effort that stymied Chip Kelly’s offensive plans.

The offense had a solid day too, although Cam Newton did toss three interceptions. He threw for a touchdown and ran for another, and the running game smashed the Eagles’ tough run defense. Jonathan Stewart ran for more than 100 yards, and Mike Tolbert scored twice to lead the offense. It proved that the Panthers don’t necessarily need Newton to play his finest game for the Panthers to win—an important step for a team that is attempting to prove it belongs among the elite in the league.

The Colts, meanwhile, fell to the New Orleans Saints 27-21 in a game that wasn’t as close as the final score sounds. The Saints jumped out to a 27-0 victory early in the third quarter before the Colts apparently realized they were in a game. They did have a strong comeback attempt in the second half, with three consecutive scores of their own, but it started too late for them to end up taking the lead.

Andrew Luck got off to a horrible first half, which explains why the Colts struggled at the onset. The Saints defense pressured him all day long, hitting him 10 times, sacking him twice and forcing him to throw two interceptions. He started the game with five consecutive incompletions and finished the first half just 9-of-19 for 79 yards, with a QB rating of 19.3.

It’s not like the Saints defense has been particularly strong against the pass, either—Luck’s first-half struggles have to concern the team moving forward.

NFC South Standings

Team	Record	Pct	PF	PA	Streak
Carolina Panthers	6-0	1.000	162	110	W6
Atlanta Falcons	6-1	.857	193	150	W1
New Orleans Saints	3-4	.429	161	185	W2
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	2-4	.333	140	179	L1

The Tennessee Titans came so close to giving the Panthers some extra breathing room in the division last week. Playing the Falcons, they had the ball down by just a field goal with less than three minutes to go, but Zach Mettenberger threw an interception just as they passed midfield, and the Falcons held on to win.  Devonta Freeman ran for 116 yards to lead the offense, but the Falcons didn’t look great and appeared entirely beatable.

Elsewhere in the division, the Saints beat the Colts as mentioned above, while the Buccaneers lost to Washington’s ferocious comeback, 31-30.

This week, the Buccaneers could do the Panthers a favor if they could hand the Falcons a loss in the early Sunday window. It’s difficult to picture a rookie quarterback rolling into the Georgia Dome and coming away from a victory, but the Falcons’ recent quality of play does not match up to their 6-1 record. An upset for Tampa Bay would mean the Panthers remain in first place, regardless of what happens against Indianapolis.

NFC Playoff Picture

Team	Record	Pct	Notes
Carolina Panthers	6-0	1.000	Ahead of GB via strength of victory
Green Bay Packers	6-0	1.000
Arizona Cardinals	5-2	.714
New York Giants	4-3	.571
Atlanta Falcons	6-1	.857
Minnesota Vikings	4-2	.667

That’s right—despite all the people saying that Carolina hasn’t played anyone tough yet, the Panthers actually own the tiebreaker over the Packers thanks to playing a tougher schedule. Panthers’ opponents have a winning percentage of .366, while Packers’ opponents are at just .350.

Neither team has beaten anyone with a winning record yet, and this tiebreaker will become a moot point when the two teams play each other next week. It just goes to show—the Packers, justifiably, get the benefit of the doubt because they’ve been a great team for an extended period of time, making the last six playoffs and winning Super Bowl XLV.

The Panthers don’t have that same kind of extended cred yet, so their wins are analyzed more closely. Both teams control their path to home-field advantage in the NFC, thanks to their matchup next week.

While it’s not a mathematical certainty, it’s difficult to imagine the Panthers failing to make the playoffs at this point. Only seven teams have ever started 6-0 and missed the playoffs, and only the ’03 Vikings and ’09 Broncos failed to make the playoffs in the current 12-team format. That’s two out of 31 teams, so while it wouldn’t be accurate to call it a historic collapse if the Panthers somehow missed the postseason, it seems fairly safe to at least pencil them in somewhere in the playoffs, though it’s too early to figure out just where that would be thanks to the continued success of the Falcons.  It’s a far cry from the situation they were in last year, at any rate.

News and Notes

Patrick Semansky/Associated Press

Steve Smith and Cam Newton will not reunite this year.

Steve Smith Is Not Walking Through That Door

Arguably the weakest link on the Panthers, at the moment, is at wide receiver. Ever since Kelvin Benjamin went on injured reserve, everyone else on the roster has basically had to step up to one rung higher on the depth chart. Philly Brown and Ted Ginn have received the most snaps, but Jerricho Cotchery has been the only really reliable wideout so far. Both Ginn and Devin Funchess have suffered through a case of the drops, though both have also made clutch catches, to be fair.

It’s enough to make some Panthers fans dream of a blockbuster trade for a returning hero on a farewell tour.  Steve Smith Sr. is the best player in franchise history. He will be a serious contender for Hall of Fame status when he retires, though there is a logjam at the receiver position. He’s still been effective in his past year-and-a-half in Baltimore—Pro Football Focus gives him a plus-14.6 grade this season, third-best in the league, and he’s in the top 10 in receptions and yards this season.

With the Baltimore Ravens, at 1-6, essentially done for the year, you can’t blame Panthers fans for imagining a scenario where Smith comes riding back to retire as a member of the Panthers, shoring up their largest weakness in a potential championship run.

Sadly, that’s not going to happen. Ravens coach John Harbaugh has said there will be “no chance” the Ravens would deal Smith, and Smith said he would quit if traded. Smith will, in all likelihood, finish the last season of his career on a team that is going nowhere this season.

Of course, there’s also the little matter of the acrimonious separation of the Panthers and Smith. Smith, who has never been prone to mince words, slammed general manager Dave Gettleman and head coach Ron Rivera last season after his release, saying that Gettleman “doesn’t even have the cojones to tell it to my face,” and that he felt he was “stabbed in the back," per WFNZ's Frank Garcia and Mark Yarbro via NFL.com. So, a happy reunion was never going to be the most likely outcome.

Is Cam Newton Better Than Andrew Luck?

Andrew Luck has been given the presumptive title of the next elite quarterback ever since the Colts drafted him with the top pick in 2012. Cam Newton has also received a lot of praise since being picked with the top pick in 2011, but it’s nothing like the almost unanimous praise Luck has received—he is a three-time Pro Bowler, led the NFL in touchdown passes last year, set the rookie record for passing yards in a single season and has led more than his fair share of come-from-behind victories.

He’s also more in the mold of what people consider a “traditional” quarterback, while people are still questioning how durable or successful a hybrid player like Newton can be.

But, as ESPN.com’s David Newton points out, this year has definitely muddied the waters somewhat. He suggests a case exists for arguing that Newton is a better quarterback than Luck at this point.

He points to a superior QB rating under pressure over the last three seasons—88.1 to 45.5—that suggests Newton handles pressure better than Luck does. He argues that this is because of Newton’s running ability—the ability to pull the ball down and run out of pressure gives him an aspect to his game Luck does not really have.

The Panthers famously wanted Luck back in 2011, but when he stayed in school, they took Newton instead.  Now, with the two quarterbacks facing off for the first time in their NFL careers, you can at least start to make the argument that the Panthers received a blessing in disguise by getting Newton instead of Luck.

Luck will eventually work himself out of his funk he’s in. But I also believe that Newton’s improvement this past year-and-a-half or so is real, and he is taking the steps he needs to take to stay firmly in the top five or 10 quarterbacks in the league.

Mike Shula Quieting Critics

It’s fair to say offensive coordinator Mike Shula has never been the most popular person in Charlotte. During his first two years as coordinator, the Panthers finished in the bottom half of the NFL in both points and yards and was a “punching bag," according to Jonathan Jones of the Charlotte Observer.

It’s not like the Panthers have been running up and down the field so far this season, but they’ve been much more effective at putting points on the board. The 162 points they’ve scored puts them at ninth-best in the league overall and sixth in points per game, as they’ve had their bye week already. That, plus the Panthers’ undefeated record, has quieted down Shula’s critics.

Carolina isn’t putting up the sort of video game numbers you’ve seen in Cincinnati or New England, but the team is putting together the best rushing, ball-control offense in football at the moment, designed to bleed the clock and stay in control of the momentum of the game. It’s not an offense that takes deep shots down the field as much as it is one that’s satisfied with four or five yards per play, keeping the sticks moving.

So long as that keeps working—and so far this season, it’s worked to perfection—Shula’s critics will stay far away.

Injuries

Stephen Brashear/Associated Press

Shaq Thompson's status for Monday is still up in the air.

As the Panthers and Colts play on Monday night, they were not required to release an official injury report Wednesday. Here, instead, is a general overview of each team’s health as it gets ready for this week’s matchup.

According to the Black and Blue Review, rookie offensive tackle Daryl Williams returned to the practice field for the first time since getting hurt in the season opener.  That’s good news, though Mike Remmers has been strong enough at right tackle that there’s no need for Williams to hurry back. If he’s active Monday, it will be just in a reserve role.

Not practicing Wednesday were Shaq Thompson, Ryan Kalil and Mike Remmers, per Max Henson of the team website. Kalil has a mild ankle tweak, and there’s little-to-no chance of him missing any time. Remmers banged up his elbow against Philadelphia but didn’t miss a snap. I also would expect him to be back on the field Thursday.

Thompson’s status is a little more questionable. He missed last week with a sprained MCL but was able to do some individual drills on the side, per Joe Person of the Charlotte Observer. Ron Rivera says that he hopes Thompson will be able to practice Thursday, but he’s someone worth keeping an eye on this week.

The defensive line is in worse shape. Mario Addison’s arm is in a sling, and he’ll be out for this week, and Dwan Edwards still has a limp after being hurt in Seattle, per the Black and Blue Review. The Panthers will have to make do with a smaller rotation on the defensive line this week.

As for the Colts, their biggest recent injury goes to Phillip Dorsett, who fractured his fibula. That leaves them thin at receiver.

They’re also thin at safety, where Mike Adams (hamstring) and Clayton Geathers (knee) are question marks for Monday night’s game. Geathers returned to practice Wednesday, according to Zak Keefer of the Indianapolis Star, though Mike Adams did not. The fact that the Colts waived reserve safety Dewey McDonald to make room for an additional receiver may indicate they are confident in Adams and Geathers’ health, but it’s something to keep an eye on this week.

Key Matchups

Jeff Haynes/Associated Press

The Colts' offensive line will be in the line of fire this week.

RT Mike Remmers vs. OLB Erik Walden

Mike Remmers had been holding up all right this season—and, to be honest, he’s still an upgrade over where the Panthers were last year—but he’s shown some cracks in the past couple of games. He has yet to allow a sack this season and only has allowed Cam Newton to get hit once, but he gave up nine quarterback hurries over the last two weeks, according to Pro Football Focus. 

That’s not quite the worst in the league over that stretch, but it’s concerning from someone who had been so solid the weeks before.

His likely primary assignment this week will be outside linebacker Erik Walden, who has played better this past month after a poor start to the season. Against Jacksonville and Houston, Walden had a sack, five quarterback hits and six more hurries (per PFF), so when opportunities are there, he can take advantage of them.

Obviously, the Panthers provide a bit of a tougher challenge than the Jaguars or Texans, but the key to a Colts upset begins with penetration into the backfield, putting Carolina in longer situations where it has to throw the ball more.  Both offensive tackles—Remmers and Michael Oher—need to be on guard against the pressure coming from the outside.

LE Kony Ealy vs. RT Joe Reitz

Andrew Luck has struggled under pressure this season, so the extent to which the Panthers are able to disrupt his game could play a major role in whether the Colts will be able to get anything done against the stifling Carolina pass defense.

The biggest question mark on Carolina’s defensive line at the moment is Ealy. Jared Allen had a couple of sacks and quarterback pressures last week, Kawann Short is putting his name into All-Pro consideration, and Star Lotulelei has been playing well since coming back from injury.

That leaves Ealy, who has been quieter at his left end spot. He has yet to record a sack this season and only has one quarterback hit, per PFF. He has been outperformed by Mario Addison and Ryan Delaire, who have been rotating in at the end spots. It’s not that Ealy has been playing particularly badly; it’s just that he hasn’t been getting to the quarterback.

As David Newton pointed out on ESPN.com, Luck’s performance shows a dramatic decline when he has been pressured over the last few seasons. Pro Football Focus has him as having the lowest accuracy in the NFL this season when pressured. It’s an opportunity for Ealy to stop simply getting close to quarterbacks and actually bring them down.

DT Kawann Short vs. LG Jack Mewhort

Kawann Short is having a career season so far. He’s brought down the quarterback five times in the past two weeks, and he has more quarterback hurries than any other defensive tackle in the NFL this season, per PFF. Short has been a terror for interior linemen this season and shows no signs of slowing down.

Jack Mewhort has been solid since moving back inside to left guard two weeks into the season during an offensive line shakeup, but Short is a tall task for any lineman to stop, especially a second-year player who’s still developing. This might be a matchup where Carolina can dominate and control the game from the point of attack.

X-Factors

Bob Leverone/Associated Press

This could be a week for Cam Newton to back up his MVP candidacy with some numbers.

Carolina’s X-Factor: QB Cam Newton

The Colts have allowed 285.9 yards passing per game, the fourth-worst figure in the NFL. They only have 10 sacks, the third-worst figure in the NFL. They’re not quite as bad as those stats indicate—Football Outsiders has them at just the 21st-best passing defense in the NFL, and they rank better in things like yards per attempt and completion percentage—but there are holes to be exploited.

So far this season, Marcus Mariota, Brian Hoyer and Tom Brady have all thrown for more than 300 yards against the Colts, and Blake Bortles was two yards short of that mark. Hoyer, Brady and Tyrod Taylor had quarterback ratings of over 100. Every single quarterback the Colts have faced other than Bortles has had a completion percentage above 61 percent.

In other words, the Colts have had issues stopping anyone through the air.

Newton has only passed the 300-yard mark or 61 percent completion mark once this season, against the New Orleans Saints. With some people beginning to suggest Newton is a potential MVP candidate, it would be good for his candidacy for him to start putting up some large numbers against teams that give up large numbers.

Indianapolis' X-Factor: S Mike Adams

Carolina’s most dangerous aerial weapon remains Greg Olsen; he’s on pace for career highs in targets, yards and touchdowns. While no one else in Carolina’s receiving corps is particularly frightening on his own, Olsen can break a game open. He’s averaging 73.2 receiving yards per game this season, fourth among tight ends.

The Colts have had issues with tight ends. Delanie Walker, Ben Watson, Rob Gronkowski, Charles Clay and Marcedes Lewis have all had at least 40 yards and three receptions against them. While no one has broken them over the top, it’s safe to say they’ve struggled, averaging 62.4 yards per game to tight ends.

If Adams is healthy—and it looks like he will play, according to Kevin Bowen of Colts.com—he’ll be a major player in Indianapolis’ attempt to stop Olsen. Adams is tied with Josh Norman and Charles Woodson for the most interceptions in the league with four and was the AFC defensive player of the week against Houston in Week 5. The Colts missed him last week against New Orleans, so they’ll be happy to have him back.

Prediction: Panthers 31, Colts 15

Streeter Lecka/Getty Images

The Panthers should continue their winning ways on Monday night.

While I wouldn’t go quite so far as saying it’s a stone-cold lock, every sign and indicator points to the Panthers being significantly favored in this matchup.

It’s the kind of matchup a team like the Panthers should win—a home game against a club that is struggling to find its identity and boasts a losing record, regardless of the fact it actually leads its division. This is a game the Panthers need to win as they continue to battle the Falcons for supremacy in the division. They can’t afford to lose a game like this—the AFC South is soft, and all teams in the NFC East get four shots at them. 

A slip-up in a game like this could be costly in the long run.

Before the season, this matchup seemed a lot tougher, but the Colts have not been impressive to this point.  They have not managed to get a single win outside of their own weak division at this point and don’t excel at anything. They’re consistently a below-average squad in almost every aspect of the game, with the possible exception of stopping the run. They’re only 1-4 with Andrew Luck starting, are allowing 408.6 yards of total offense a game and are giving up 24.9 points per game. This is not a good football team right now.

You can never fully count out a team with Luck. He finds himself in terrible situations week after week, but he’s had 10 fourth-quarter comebacks since he entered the league in 2012 and has already made a name for himself for coming back from terrible deficits. You can never really be sure a lead is safe when he's in the game.

Cam Newton has 10 fourth-quarter comebacks of his own, but the Panthers shouldn’t need any fourth-quarter magic in this one. I expect Carolina to jump out to an early lead and clamp down on the game with its tough defense. So long as the Panthers don’t get caught looking ahead to next week’s showdown with Green Bay, they'll come out on top of this one.

Prediction: Panthers 31, Colts 15

Bryan Knowles is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report, covering the Carolina Panthers.  Follow him @BryKno on twitter.