Cleveland Browns vs. St. Louis Rams Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The St. Louis Rams can't seem to stand potential success considering they've lost outright each of the last four times they've gone off as betting favorites. Meanwhile, the Cleveland Browns are 6-1 against the spread their last seven times out as betting underdogs. The rested Rams host the cardiac Browns Sunday afternoon at the Jones Dome.

Point spread: The Rams opened as 4.5-point favorites; the total was 42.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 26.4-18.8 Rams

Why the Browns can cover the spread

Cleveland is 2-4 straight up but 4-2 ATS this season, with three covers in a row after falling at home to the Denver Broncos last week 26-23 in overtime but covering as a four-point home dog. The Browns trailed 10-0 at the half, rallied to take a 23-20 lead on a pick-six off Peyton Manning with eight minutes to go but eventually lost on a field goal 10 minutes into the extra period.

Two weeks ago, Cleveland pulled a 33-30 overtime upset at Baltimore; three weeks ago, it lost a tough game at San Diego 30-27 on a field goal at the buzzer. So the Browns have played three three-point games in a row. If they can keep Sunday's game within three points, they'll cover.

Why the Rams can cover the spread

Two weeks ago, St. Louis lost at Green Bay 24-10 but outplayed the undefeated Green Bay Packers. The Rams fell down 14-0 in the first quarter with help from a Green Bay pick-six but played to a 10-10 tie from there. And it should have been closer; St. Louis came up empty on a pair of incursions into the Packers red zone and missed three field goals.

On the day, the Rams outrushed Green Bay 191-86, as rookie Todd Gurley went off for 159 yards, and won time of possession by a 34-26 margin. But they couldn't overcome four interceptions thrown by quarterback Nick Foles. St. Louis then had last week off.

Three weeks ago, the Rams upset the undefeated Cardinals in Arizona, as Foles threw three touchdown passes without a pick. If he eliminates the mistakes and lets the ground game do its thing, St. Louis should be in good shape Sunday.

Smart pick

Gurley is probably salivating at the chance to go against the Cleveland defense, which ranks dead last in the league against the run. And so far this NFL betting season, teams that have outrushed their opponents are 57-29 ATS (66 percent). Despite the recent chalky losing streak, St. Louis is the smart choice in this spot.

Betting trends

The Rams are 0-4 SU and ATS in their last four games as favorites.

The Browns are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games as underdogs.

The total has gone over in the Browns' last six games.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.