NFL Picks and Predictions Week 5: The Ultimate Bettor's Guide

Week 4 was weird, but not bad for us. Overall, we went 9-5, pushing our total for the season to 33-26.

Unfortunately, we somehow picked three of those five losses out of 14 games to be three of our five locks of this past week. Our 2-3 record for "locks" are the first time we've had a losing record in that category this season. As the saying goes, locks belong on doors.

Still, my top lock of the week is now 3-1 on the season after the New York Jets put away the Miami Dolphins in London, my second Jets-related (I picked Philadelphia +2.5 two weeks ago) top lock in as many weeks.

The St. Louis Rams are apparently going to bounce between decent and horrible offenses on a week-to-week basis, so it's going to be really fun trying to pin down what they're going to be moving forward. That just tells you that teams can only get hot for so long. The Cardinals looked unbeatable, but when the public zigs, you need to at least entertain the idea of zagging.

Personally, the worst loss for me this week was Oakland losing to Chicago. The Bears aren't a bad team under Jay Cutler, and when he was announced as the starting quarterback, I wanted to reverse all course I had previously taken on the game throughout the week.

Cutler's going to be remembered for "quitting" in a playoff game, but there's few quarterbacks who are willing to go through what he's willing to go through to get back on to the field. Ben Roethlisberger and Philip Rivers come to mind.

The two other picks we lost were tying ourselves to the Houston Texans and the Seattle Seahawks; offense without Marshawn Lynch. Idiot.

Oh well, you live and you learn. A 9-5 record is still well above average. This week, I just need to bring in the right locks.

All picks ATS: 33-26 (.559)

Locks of the Week ATS: 12-9 (.571)

Thursday Night Football: Indianapolis @ Houston

Patric Schneider/Associated Press

Result: Indianapolis 27, Houston 20

The AFC South is closely reaching MACtion levels of "standalone football is on, but it's disgusting and I don't want to watch."

We had a Brian Hoyer arm punt which was preceded by Ryan Mallett expletives. Matt Hasselbeck has been in the NFL longer than the Texans have been a franchise and somehow he and a ragtag group of elder statesmen beat a team which featured Arian Foster, Jadeveon Clowney and J.J. Watt.

The two most interesting quarterback battles in the NFL to me are Houston's and Cleveland's. It seems like Texans head coach Bill O'Brien is just patiently waiting to make a strike at the right quarterback, but the best passer Houston has had in a while was Ryan Fitzpatrick last season, and they let him go as a free agent. The Browns' head coach Mike Pettine was quick to pull Johnny Manziel as soon as Josh McCown got healthy again.

It seems like both of them are telling their ownership, "You shouldn't judge my job off of the quarterbacks right now. I don't want them. I need to wait for the right one." Failing to swing at a quarterback isn't a better result than swinging and missing on one. Either way, you don't have one. Either way, you can't win games at the professional level.

The Texans closed as five-point home favorites to the Colts, who were starting an ill backup passer. They lost by seven. This was after losing by 27 points to the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday.

If any combo of teams are going to set Houston back on track, it would be the Jaguars and Dolphins. The Texans play them back-to-back, but on the road. Hopefully they can net one against Jacksonville next week after a long break. If they can't, O'Brien might not get a shot at that passer he's been oh so patient for.

Cover: Indianapolis

Jacksonville @ Tampa Bay

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Opening line: Jacksonville @ Tampa Bay (-3)

Current line: Jacksonville @ Tamp Bay (-3)

The Jacksonville Jaguars just lost to the Indianapolis Colts, who might have the worst personnel in the league when excluding quarterback play. Their starter, former first overall pick Andrew Luck, missed the game due to a shoulder injury, so Matt Hasselbeck, of Seattle Seahawks fame, was the Colts' top passer last week. Hasselbeck, a 40-year-old, has spent more time on earth than Dan Campbell, the new interim head coach of the Miami Dolphins.

Hasselbeck managed to not shoot his team in the foot, though. He didn't try to do to much. He ran the offense, living with the fact that the team only scored 13 points in 60 minutes of play. He ended the game with a 87.4 passer rating due to very conservative play. There's no way the Tampa Bay Buccaneers would go the same route.

Jameis Winston is talented, but to his own fault at times. His talent isn't going to transcend scheme at the professional level, and he just doesn't know how to lose. His "gamer" tag is going to make things worse when he's forcing plays in big situations. He has a league-high seven interceptions, is only completing 54.9 percent of his passes and has a 71.2 passer rating for the season.

The Buccaneers' former kicker, Kyle Brindza, missed six field goals in four games and two extra points. I say former because he was cut after Sunday's game.

Both of these teams are going to compete for a top-five pick in April, but I believe the Buccaneers are more risk-prone, especially with a cold kick coming in, knowing he's on a short leash. Outside of playing a banged-up Drew Brees, who was clearly hurt by pass-rusher Jacquies Smith in the first quarter of their matchup, Tampa Bay has been beaten by double-digits in every one of their other three games.

The combined total in those games? 46-98. The combined record of those teams in 2014? 18-29-1. Do not trust this Buccaneers team with your money. Tampa is 1-3 against the spread this year, including 0-2 at home. I think those numbers extend to 1-4 and 0-3 after this weekend.

The key to this game is turnovers. Unless the Buccaneers get some points on the defensive side of the ball, it should be a wrap.

The pick: Jacksonville (+3)

Chicago @ Kansas City

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Opening line: Chicago @ Kansas City (-10)

Current line: Chicago @ Kansas City (-9.5)

Maybe Jay Cutler isn't as bad of a quarterback as we thought he was? Cutler has been the punchline of many jokes, but he's actually done well this season. Just juxtaposing 2014 and 2015 Cutler and the 2014 and 2015 Baltimore Ravens, are we sure Marc Trestman wasn't the problem?

Keep that in mind when you're thinking about putting money on Baltimore, but for now let's go game-by-game and look at how the Chicago Bears have played in 2015.

-They opened the season at home against the Green Bay Packers and managed to "only" lose by eight points. In contrast to the margins of victory of 10, 10 and 14 that Green Bay has seen outside of Week 1, we'll count this as a positive for Chicago.

-In Week 2 against the Arizona Cardinals, a top-five team so far this season, the Bears were within a score and Cutler was 8-for-8 on passes before he threw a costly pick-six which also left him with a hamstring injury. Up until that point, they were toe-to-toe in a brawl with Bruce Arian's squad. Then Jimmy Clausen happened.

-Week 3 was interesting because somehow Clausen kept it within a score at the half, but the door was blown off this game in the last 30 minutes.

-Cutler returned after just missing a game and a half, leading Chicago to a last-minute victory against the Raiders while posting a 89.4 passer rating. Cutler is one of the toughest quarterbacks in the league, and he doesn't get enough credit for it. He was running the read option on a recovering hamstring, which isn't a joke. Bruises and pulls sound minor up until you realize the severity it takes for those injuries to force players off the field in the NFL. J.J. Watt's thigh issue from last season is the image I always picture.

In the three games Cutler participated in, the Bears had a shot while he was still on the field. Why do we think the Chiefs should be awarded 10 points if Clausen isn't going to be playing?

When it was announced that Cutler was going to suit up against Oakland on Sunday, I immediately regretted making the Raiders one of my locks of the week. Is it weird for me to think that the Bears have the better quarterback in this Sunday's game?

I still think the Chiefs have a better team, but Matt Forte establishes the ground game and Cutler wings it deep enough that a defense has to stay balanced. The Chiefs are a deserved 1-3, including two punches in the mouth the past two weeks, because Alex Smith will not go deep to save his life. There's no wonder why his receivers went on a record streak of games without a touchdown.

There was a moment in the Green Bay game that I think changed how the Chiefs were perceived by the league. Packers defensive coordinator Dom Capers is known to be aggressive, and at times he was putting eight or nine guys near the line of scrimmage against Kansas City.

There was one play when De'Anthony Thomas motioned from being an off-the-line left receiver to being the tailback in the I-formation. Smith dumped off a designed swing pass to him, which was promptly blown up by multiple players for a huge loss of yardage.

The jig has been up from that point forward. The combo of Smith and head coach Andy Reid don't want to go deep, so what's the point in keeping your defense from just playing aggressive and downhill?

I lean Chiefs straight up, but give me the cover. Cutler is in "never-say-die" mode, knowing that he won't get better checks than the ones he has right now, and that if the Bears lose more than 11 or so games this season, the team will absolutely be looking for a new passer.

The pick: Chicago (+10)

Washington @ Atlanta

Mark Tenally/Associated Press

Opening line: Washington @ Atlanta (-9)

Current line: Washington @ Atlanta (-8)

I get that the Falcons looked very impressive last weekend when they took a sledgehammer to the Houston Texans' postseason aspirations, but nine points is a big number to cover in the NFL, even at home.

Quietly, Atlanta is leading the NFL in rushing touchdowns allowed with seven through four games. The Washington Redskins' strongest unit? Their offensive line, specifically in the run game.

Offensive line coach Bill Callahan has the Skins running well when they are in a position to take carries. In Week 3, they weren't able to often as Kirk Cousins had to pass 49 times to keep up with the New York Giants putting up 32 on them on a short week.

Cousins is bouncing between good and bad games, after he showed out against the Rams and Eagles in Week 2 and Week 4. Versus Philadelphia, he led a 90-yard drive to win the game, which is significant considering the Eagles have a top-10 defense in the league when you take into account of how much time they spend with that unit on the field.

I think Washington is going to be able to run the ball this week. Their biggest weakness is their defensive backs, but without another major threat opposite of Julio Jones, it's possible they can slow the bleeding down on the back end of their defense.

With pass-rusher Vic Beasley matched up against their left tackle Trent Williams, I can see the Redskins neutralizing some of their weaknesses and Atlanta strengths, making this a game.

Cross your fingers for a backdoor cover.

The pick: Washington (+9)

Seattle @ Cincinnati

Paul Sancya/Associated Press

Opening line: Seattle @ Cincinnati (-1)

Current line: Seattle @ Cincinnati (-1)

To me, this is game of the week. This game will have more impact on how I see the NFL than any other match on Sunday.

The Seattle Seahawks are coming off a short week after sneaking out with a home win against the Detroit Lions on Monday Night Football. If running back Marshawn Lynch can't go, this offense clearly is going to fall apart down the stretch. That is evident.

The Seahawks defense is great, but there are so many options for the Bengals to use that they'll need to keep up offensively, too. Remember, in the first half against the Jimmy Clausen Bears, Seattle somehow couldn't push down the gas pedal, as they only scored six points.

I can promise you that if the Seahawks score less than a touchdown against Cincinnati in the first half, you can bet your mortgage on the Bengals winning the game.

Andy Dalton is just 2.9 points in passer rating behind Aaron Rodgers right now. Rodgers is having a career season, Dalton is on pace to breaking the passer rating record and we're only talking about one of them.

Dalton's Bengals lead the NFL in offensive yards, are third in offensive points and their defense is ninth in defensive points per game. Excluding quarterback, this Cincinnati team is more talented and Dalton is having a much better year than Russell Wilson is currently.

I struggle to figure out how the Seahawks' interior offensive line is going to slow down defensive tackle Geno Atkins. As we saw when Seattle faced Green Bay, disruptive penetrators throw this offense into a downward spiral. B.J. Raji had the game of his career and Mike Daniels looked like...well...Geno Atkins against Tom Cable's unit.

Pressure from the edge isn't ideal, but it's fine. Running backs can cut back or quarterbacks can step up in the pocket. If pressure comes from the inside, though, a play is blown from the start and options are thrown out of the window instantly. The other team Seattle struggled with? The St. Louis Rams, who have Aaron Donald, another explosive three-technique. Mind you, this was against a healthy Lynch.

Last year I would have killed to put money on the Seahawks as dogs, but this squad just hasn't meshed correctly yet. Cincinnati is catching fire in a bottle right now. Of course, Arizona was...up until they weren't.

A west-coast team playing in an early away game on a short week and the matchups seal the deal for me, though. Give me the Bengals straight up. Blame me later. 

The pick: Cincinnati (-1)

New Orleans @ Philadelphia

Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

Opening line: New Orleans @ Philadelphia (-4)

Current line: New Orleans @ Philadelphia (-5)

New Orleans has the worst defense in football.

Kirk Cousins drove 90 yards on the Eagles last week to win the game, but I'm not sure Drew Brees is even at Cousins' level of talent at this point. His arm is gone.

Philadelphia isn't good, but they actually started to throw it deep last week. The team only has the ball on average for 22:48 of a 60-minute game. That defense is going to break down at the end if the offense can't stay on the field, but there's renewed hope for Chip Kelly.

The one way the Saints have been able to generate explosive plays is by throwing to their running backs out of the backfield, which is a staple in Kelly's system. You figure, there's no way his team is going to let those swing passes take over a game, with how much emphasis they put on it.

This may not be the week the Eagles stop being the punchlines to jokes on Twitter, but I'm trying to figure out how they can even manage to lose this one.

The pick: Philadelphia (-4)

Cleveland @ Baltimore

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Opening line: Cleveland @ Baltimore (-7)

Current line: Cleveland @ Baltimore (-6.5)

The Cleveland Browns just hang around in games. Even if they aren't coming away with a win, they've only lost once by more than a score, and it was in the season opener in New York against the now 3-1 Jets who have won by double-digits three times, with their one blemish coming after a short week following Monday Night Football. The Browns do enough on offense to look respectable and put it on their high-pressure defense to win them games down the stretch.

Baltimore is coming off of a long week after winning their first game in 2015 on Thursday Night Football against Michael Vick's Pittsburgh Steelers. What I worry the most about Baltimore is their ability to take deep shots in the passing game and their ability to consistently cover on the defensive side of the ball.

As Michael Gehlken of the San Diego Union-Tribune pointed out last Sunday, Browns quarterback Josh McCown had the best first half for a Cleveland passer in nearly a decade against the Chargers.

Surprisingly, McCown now has a passer rating of 98.4 on the season. Somehow Travis Benjamin has been he team's ace to make big plays against broken coverage, and the Ravens have proven they will do so.

The extra time could have allowed Baltimore some freedom to switch up their scheme, but offensively they don't make sense. Why pay Joe Flacco like an "elite quarterback" if you're not going to allow him to throw deep often?

If they wanted to check down, the Ravens could have just paid McCown to take what defenses give him. Even if the team did want to go deep with Flacco, they don't have a threat to test a team deep, plus Steve Smith is now banged up.

The Browns cover, but more than likely end up 1-4. Their fans will be thinking about draft season, but they should be glad with the improvements they're making.

On offense, they're vanilla, running simple schemes like the Seattle Seahawks do, but, like the Seahawks, they now have a defensive identity. They aren't scared to send multiple blitzers and trust their defensive backs, who they have invested plenty in.

The pick: Cleveland (+7)

St. Louis @ Green Bay

Billy Hurst/Associated Press

Opening line: St. Louis @ Green Bay (-9.5)

Current line: St. Louis @ Green Bay (-9.5)

Are we getting Dr. Jekyll or Mr. Hyde from St. Louis this week?

After beating the Seattle Seahawks at home, the Rams proceeded to lose in Washington, and they also failed to capitalize on a Ben Roethlisberger injury against the Pittsburgh Steelers at home before somehow beating the Arizona Cardinals, who were one of the hottest teams in the league.

The Rams took away the deep ball and forced Arizona to take underneath shots at the team while their elite defensive line worked their way to the quarterback.

I think Aaron Rodgers is more than willing to dink and dunk on St. Louis, but with Jordy Nelson gone for the year and Davante Adams potentially missing another week, does he trust his receivers to run the correct option routes?

Jeff Janis is everyone's favorite dynasty sleeper, but it doesn't look like he's ever going to see more than a handful of targets on the season, even with all of these injuries at the wideout position.

On top of that, the Rams' pass-rush just might throw Rodgers into a funk. Now that sounds crazy, right? Crazy, but not impossible.

How long has it been since Rodgers short-circuited? Rapper Gucci Mane has dropped 16 official mixtapes since Rodgers even last threw an interception at home in 2012. Rodgers didn't have Don Barclay playing right tackle for him for that entire stretch, though.

According to Gil Brandt of NFL Network, Barclay has allowed the most pressure in the league by an offensive lineman (21, with the second-highest being 15,) while David Bakhtiari, the Packers' left tackle, ranks fifth. Part of this is the fault of the play-calling in Green Bay, which gives offensive linemen little to no help with backs or tight ends in pass protection. Mano a mano, Mike McCarthy's offensive line is going to have their hands full this Sunday.

Is it possible Green Bay establishes the run game early against a weak Rams linebacker unit which is now missing Alex Ogletree? Packers running back Eddie Lacy has only taken 31 carries in the last three weeks, well below his career average of 17 carries per game. Running into Robert Quinn, Aaron Donald, Chris Long and Michael Brockers isn't always a great idea, either.

Todd Gurley also showed promise of being the next elite NFL running back last weekend, which is a massive positive for the Rams. The tandem of Gurley and Tavon Austin running the ball makes their misdirection offense flow, which is great when you consider the Packers are an aggressive, penetrating team. That's why the read option has done well against them under Capers.

St. Louis has also spent three top-100 picks over the past two years on offensive linemen, including 2014 second overall pick Greg Robinson, who are starting to put it together.

Personnel-wise, Jeff Fisher's squad has given up on trying to keep up with the best passers in the league, instead he elected to take a ground-and-pound approach. The Packers? Third to last in the league in yards per carry allowed defensively with 4.8 on the season, despite holding a two-score lead in every game they've played.

Green Bay is going to slip at some point, and we need to catch them when they do. This has the makings of a cliche "trap game."

The pic: St. Louis (+9.5)

Buffalo @ Tennessee

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Opening line: Buffalo @ Tennessee (+3)

Current line: Buffalo @ Tennessee (+3)

Last week I told everyone to look at the New York Giants going head-to-head with the Buffalo Bills. I think at this point we know where the Bills stand in the NFL. Against good teams, they're going to struggle. Against poor teams, they're going to look like playoff contenders.

Marcus Mariota's Titans are coming off of a Week 4 bye, though, and I'm not sure we can cast them in stone like we can Buffalo.

Quietly, Tennessee has one of the better defensive back units in the league and with their pass-rushing combo of Derrick Morgan, Brian Orakpo and Jurrell Casey, they are a threat to crush any quarterback's pocket on both the edge and interior.

Mariota can get the ball off quickly, which will be asked from him against the Bills' aggressive scheme headed by Rex Ryan. After his losing effort against the Cleveland Browns, who also played some Cover 1 and Cover 0 against the Titans, I do wonder how well he will do against the blitz, considering his biggest weakness at this point is sack-fumbles.

I'll clinch my teeth and take the Titans at home coming off a bye. Someone in Buffalo is going to have to step up for the Bills to come out with a win. Maybe the Karlos Williams hype train just needed to wait a week? Is Sammy Watkins still a thing?

The pick: Tennessee (+3)

Arizona @ Detroit

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Opening line: Arizona @ Detroit (+3)

Closing line: Arizona @ Detroit (+2.5)

If last week rattled you off Arizona or on to Detroit, you're going to have a bad time. The Cardinals are still extremely efficient, but didn't have tape on how to stop St. Louis Rams running back Todd Gurley, who saw his first significant reps in Week 4.

When a game starts off with your team dropping the opening kickoff in the red zone for your opponent to snatch, you're always going to have a hard time covering.

Detroit only managed to score 10 points against the Seahawks. Even then, the touchdown came on the defensive side of the ball.

I still think the Cardinals are Super Bowl good and the Lions are first overall pick bad. They just have zero identity at this point. Whatever you want to run, you can run. Nothing is stopping you from saying "we can't X because they have X." Even Calvin Johnson looks washed at this point.

The Chargers, Vikings and Broncos picked their defense apart. The Seahawks are nothing in the passing game without Marshawn Lynch, as they run a scheme that is as complicated as some high-school offenses.

Still, without a running game or an offensive line, that team managed to get it done against Detroit on Monday. Good luck to the Lions, who are trying to stop Carson Palmer and Bruce Arians on a loss after a short week.

Since 2013, when Palmer joined Arizona, he's only lost back-to-back regular season games once: In 2013 against the 49ers and Seahawks, who later met that season in the NFC Championship. That's far from what we expect from Matt Stafford's team this season. Bird Gang.

The pick: Arizona (-2.5)

New England @ Dallas

Brandon Wade/Associated Press

Opening line: New England @ Dallas (+7)

Closing line: New England @ Dallas (+10)

Ten-point dogs. At home. In the NFL? Man, this one is tough. I didn't plan on praying for a Brandon Weeden cover heading into this season, but the Patriots laying 10 on the road is equal to them laying roughly 16.5 at home. That's almost unheard of.

Cowboys linebacker Sean Lee is going to be healthy in this game, and he could have helped a bunch in overtime when C.J. Spiller just toasted Dallas' second level for the dagger. Rolando McClain and Greg Hardy are going to be ready for the defense, too. Those are three huge contributors for the Cowboys.

Hopefully, Bill Belichick's team doesn't view this game as an opportunity to flex. Coming off a bye week and facing the Colts, who started the entire Deflategate mess, next week, I'm going to cross my fingers, toes and eyes, hoping that a garbage-time score from Jerry Jones' team gets us a cover here.

The pick: Dallas (+10)

Denver @ Oakland

David Richard/Associated Press

Opening line: Denver @ Oakland (+6)

Current line: Denver @ Oakland (+5)

The Raiders are coming off a brutal loss to the Chicago Bears last week. At home, though, I think they can stick around this Denver Broncos team.

The Broncos have the best defensive personnel in the NFL, but their offense hasn't looked up to par with the Peyton Manning-led teams in the recent past.

At this point, Derek Carr looks like the best 2014 draft-class quarterback, better than Teddy Bridgewater, who the Broncos took down the last week when they faced the Minnesota Vikings.

Outside of one extremely long Adrian Peterson run, Minnesota didn't generate many explosive plays against Denver, but because the Broncos once again scored under 25 points, a mark they've hit under in three of their four games this season, the match finished as a one-score game.

In four games, Denver has only beaten one team by multiple scores, and the combined record of the four opponents they've faced is 4-12. They just can't close the door on even bad teams.

If Carr and company can just get three scores, that's more than likely enough to cover in this game. I like those chances, considering Carr has has thrown 22 red zone touchdowns and just one interception in his NFL career and the Raiders are currently sixth in the league in third down conversion percentage.

Mike Klis of 9News in Denver also pointed out that three starting Broncos linemen were still missing practice on Wednesday. The pass-rushing combo of Aldon Smith and Khalil Mack just might be enough to rattle Denver's AARP signal-caller.

The pick: Oakland (+6)

San Francisco @ New York Giants

Bill Wippert/Associated Press

Opening line: San Francisco @ New York Giants (-7)

Current line: San Francisco @ New York Giants (-7)

The New York Giants have had two-digit leads in every fourth quarter of their four games this season.

Quietly, their defense is much improved and Eli Manning has a passer rating of 96.4. They aren't a Super Bowl contender in my eyes just yet, but they are consistently good and haven't had a hiccup, other than late in games.

In fourth quarters against the Falcons and Cowboys, two title contenders when Dallas quarterback Tony Romo is healthy, the Giants were outscored 10-28. In the other 14 quarters, they've outscored their opponents 92-54.

San Francisco might be the worst team in the NFL. Since their Week 1 game against the Vikings, which I'm willing to write off due to being an odd second Monday Night Football game in Week 1 on the west coast, they've been outscored 107-28.

Quarterback Colin Kaepernick is third worst among qualifying passers in passer rating, third worst in yards per attempt, ranks third in sacks and fourth in the league in interceptions. He's thrown five interceptions this season, which has been matched or beaten by seven other passers, all of whom have scored at least five touchdowns in the air. Kaepernick has a total of two, tying for 33rd in the NFL.

Think about that. He's on pace for an eight-touchdown and 20-interception season at his currently. That's rookie-season Mark Sanchez type of production. Not only is he missing passes, but he's doing it in excruciating ways.

Fans gave up on the 49ers last weekend when Eric Branch of the San Francisco Chronicle took a photo of a nearly vacant home crowd to kick off the second half against the Packers.

San Francisco is in car-crash mode. Their general manager has been praised for taking high-reward low-risk picks, but none of them have really panned out other than pass-rusher Aaron Lynch up to this point.

Somehow the ownership thought it was a good idea to replace Jim Harbaugh, who is now leading a once-dead Michigan program to a top-25 ranking, with what appears to be a high-school gym teacher who may or may not have farted into a mic during a press conference.

The Blaine Gabbert era might be on the horizon.

The pick: New York Giants (-7)

Monday Night Football: Pittsburgh @ San Diego

Denis Poroy/Associated Press

Opening line: Pittsburgh @ San Diego (-3)

Current line: Pittsburgh @ San Diego (-3)

Philip Rivers is doing all he can right now. All five members of his offensive line have been hurt at some point this season. He's been missing Antonio Gates, who has been his safety blanket for his entire career. There's no real deep threat on the team. The ground game stalls more often than not. San Diego's run defense isn't getting much done, either.

Still, Rivers is averaging a passer rating of over 100, and the only game the Chargers weren't competitive in was away against the Minnesota Vikings two weeks ago. As long as the defense gives him a sliver of hope, he's going to out-effort everyone else and try to leave with a win.

Pittsburgh is in a weird spot at this point in the season. Ben Roethlisberger is hurt, but Le'Veon Bell just returned from suspension.

Can Michael Vick run a spread system or will he try to play outside of the frame of calls? Even when he is asked to run the offense the same as Roethlisberger, it doesn't seem like the Steelers are using him correctly. He ran a sweep run and was forced to throw from the left hash to the far right, mind you he's left-handed, on two crucial downs last week.

Martavis Bryant of Pittsburgh and Gates are going to return to their respective teams after serving four-week suspensions. I think the edge goes to San Diego there, as the entire Chargers' offense is looking for efficient targets, even if they are check down receivers who are third or fourth reads.

Sure, there's going to be as many Steelers fans at this game as there are San Diego fans, but Levi's Stadium is also known as a traveler's stadium, and we saw what now seems like the weirdest game played there this season when the San Francisco 49ers beat the Minnesota Vikings 20-3.

A west-coast team playing a late game is always intriguing to me, even if Pittsburgh has had since October 1 to prepare.

The pick: San Diego (-3)

Locks of the Week

Nam Y. Huh/Associated Press

1) Chicago (+10) @ Kansas City

2) Arizona (-3) @ Detroit

3) Seattle @ Cincinnati (-1)

4) New Orleans @ Philadelphia (-4)

5) St. Louis (+9.5) @ Green Bay

All lines courtesy of OddsShark.com.