Texas A&M vs. Arkansas Complete Game Preview
It seemed unlikely before the season, but for the second straight year a highly ranked Texas A&M team will play an unranked Arkansas team in Arlington, Texas.
The roles were reversed three weeks ago, when the Razorbacks were No. 18 in the Associated Press Top 25 and the Aggies were on the outside looking in, but home losses against Toledo and Texas Tech have dropped Bret Bielema's side from the rankings, while a big win over Arizona State has helped Kevin Sumlin's team climb to No. 14.
Regardless, this is each team's SEC opener, which means the start of a new mini-season. If the Razorbacks can fix their issues quickly, they can reinvent themselves and still succeed this year.
It's always dangerous to play a desperate opponent.
On Saturday, that's what the Aggies draw.
Date: Saturday, September 26
Time: 7 p.m. ET
Location: AT&T Stadium; Arlington, Texas
TV: ESPN
Line: Texas A&M -7, according to Odds Shark
Texas A&M Keys to Victory
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No More Turnovers
Turnovers made the Nevada game closer than it needed to be.
Tra Carson lost a fumble at the Wolf Pack 7-yard line, and Kyle Allen threw a pick to set up a field goal.
The Aggies committed three turnovers against Arizona State in Week 1 as well, but if they play a clean game against Arkansas, they should settle into a rhythm much like Texas Tech did against Arkansas. The Red Raiders didn't punt once in their win over the Razorbacks: Their first seven drives went touchdown, interception, touchdown, touchdown, interception, touchdown, touchdown.
Texas Tech is coached by former A&M offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury and runs a similar offense to that of Sumlin and Jake Spavital. So long as they don't hurt themselves with turnovers, the Aggies should post a high success rate, move the ball in chunks and post a big, crooked number on the scoreboard.
Protect the Middle of the Field
With Keon Hatcher, Cody Hollister and Jared Cornelius sidelined, Arkansas lacks weapons on the perimeter. Quarterback Brandon Allen has done his best to attack all parts of the field, but this offense isn't geared to play outside the numbers.
Where it is geared is to attack is up the middle. Whether running the ball behind the meatiest offensive line in college football or throwing to tight end Hunter Henry, the Razorbacks want to play straight ahead. They don't deceive opponents; they dare opponents to stop them.
In the past, that is something the Aggies have struggled with. Defending the run against physical teams has been their kryptonite under Sumlin. New defensive coordinator John Chavis has helped, but Nevada, Ball State and even Arizona State are not the same as Arkansas.
This will be the first and biggest test for Texas A&M.
Arkansas Keys to Victory
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Regroup Mentally
Arkansas is in the throes of a crisis, having lost two straight games on its home field as a double-digit favorite.
Such adversity is rare and puts the Razorbacks in a tough spot mentally. They can rally around this hardship and prove the past two games were a fluke. Or they can wilt around this hardship, drop to 1-3 and begin the slow spiral toward bowl ineligibility.
Arkansas' mental recuperation will decide more about this game than anything. It still has the bodies to compete and beat Texas A&M. Even if pundits overrated its talent before the season, they didn't imagine talent where it didn't exist.
Avoid Negative Plays
Arkansas runs a ball-control offense that relies more on efficiency than explosiveness. It's important for the Razorbacks to stay on schedule, gain positive yardage on first and second down and then either move the chains or face a short third-down conversion.
Nothing derails this strategy like a negative play. Arkansas has done a good job of avoiding this, ranking No. 36 in the country in tackles for loss allowed and No. 17 in TFL yards allowed, but Texas A&M will be its stiffest challenge to date.
The Aggies rank No. 1 in the country in tackles for loss and No. 5 in TFL yards. Under Chavis they have implemented an aggressive, havoc-wreaking style that fits their personnel.
Arkansas must limit mistakes and keep Myles Garrett, Daeshon Hall, Daylon Mack and Donovan Wilson out of the backfield. If it does, it can stay on schedule, control the clock and keep the ball away from A&M's offense. If it doesn't, it better have some tricks up its sleeve on passing downs.
Texas A&M Players to Watch
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LB Otaro Alaka
Otaro Alaka tied a career high with seven tackles against Nevada. The sophomore has emerged as one of A&M's best defenders, especially in coverage, where he'll prove vital against the Razorbacks. Hunter Henry was the No. 1 tight end on Bleacher Report's college football 250 before the season, and he'll be targeted even more considering the injuries at wide receiver. Alaka can make a name for himself by covering him.
WR Christian Kirk
Christian Kirk exploded against Arizona State in Week 1, and the smoke has yet to clear. He caught six balls for 120 yards against Nevada and now ranks No. 3 in the SEC in receiving. Texas Tech popped for a number of long gains against the Razorbacks, so Kirk, who ranks in the top three in the country in 30-, 40- and 50-yard plays, should find ample room to operate in Arlington.
DT Daylon Mack
Here is the test Mack has had circled. The 6'1", 335-pound tackle looked great against Arizona State, Ball State and Nevada, but now he'll face an NFL-sized line with some of the best downhill blockers in the country. Mack has shown explosiveness in the open field and backfield but needs to do the dirty work and prove he's a down-to-down run-stuffer. He's only a true freshman, but he's the Aggies' best hope in the A-gap.
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Arkansas Players to Watch
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QB Brandon Allen
Arkansas has asked more of Allen this season than it has in previous seasons. He's responded well for the most part, but at times—particularly in the red zone—he has struggled to create. He underthrew what might have been the game-tying touchdown to Jeremy Sprinkle last weekend, only to see that failed third down turn into a back-breaking missed field goal. Allen can't afford to keep missing easy throws.
RB Alex Collins
Here's a weird stat: In 16 career SEC games, Alex Collins has rushed for 100 yards only twice—but both times came against Texas A&M. He became the true No. 1 back after Jonathan Williams hurt his foot in fall camp, and he looked good against Texas Tech after struggling in the loss to Toledo. The Razorbacks gave Collins a career-high 28 carries last weekend, and he might need even more against the Aggies.
CB Henre' Toliver
Henre' Toliver has been a bright spot for Arkansas' defense. He has three tackles for loss and made a spectacular interception against UTEP, and he'll need to bring that playmaking against a Texas A&M offense with turnover issues. He'll also need to bring his slot coverage skills, as he's the most likely matchup across from Kirk.
What They're Saying
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Texas A&M
Sumlin on Mack, per Brandon Wheeland of the Dallas Morning News:
"He's only played three games. He's made some plays, he's an impact player, needs to be consistent. It was kind of all-or-nothing in regards to the young guys. The good news is they have what it takes and they are playmakers on the inside. We just need to get them more consistent.
If they can make that step, Mack gets better every week. His progression has been great, [defensive tackles coach] Mark Hagen is doing a great job. Daylon is learning to play football at this level and play all the time. He's going to continue to get better, I'm glad he's on our team.
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Sumlin on quarterback Kyle Allen after the Nevada game, per Wheeland:
"I thought he was really efficient in the game, particularly the first half. Made the mistake with the interception, but that play was a product of the two downs before that where we went backwards and made it third and forever. He's running around just trying to make a play.
When I talk about eliminating bad football, it's not just the interception, it's also the plays we went backwards on. It's okay to punt and throw it out of bounds, a lot of people don't believe that. That's all part of young quarterbacks trying to make plays, we will get another chance with the ball.
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Arkansas
Bielema responded to criticism from Kingsbury, who said Bielema trashed spread offenses at a Texas high school coaches event, and then used an expletive to describe how his team beat the Razorbacks, per Graham Watson of Dr. Saturday:
"I'm happy he got to vent and hopefully he feels a lot better. As a coach who has been in it for 10 years, I know better than to worry about somebody that's been around for a couple and they're .500. So we'll just go forward.
Was I shocked? Yeah, just because you know, in this profession, you handle certain things in a certain way. I've never really had that before.
I don't know what part [of the Texas High School Coaches Association meeting] he was referencing to. I do remember talking about how, when we play on defense, if we can play against someone who was completely opposite of us, we've got to feel that's an advantage.
I didn't reference Texas Tech. I don't know if he or someone was in the crowd. Obviously it struck a nerve. If we start digging into what people say at coaches' clinics and trying to use that as motivation, it's going to be a very, very weird world.
It's a perfect storm. I realize we haven't won in two weeks and it's an opportunity to jump on and have some fun with it. If that was an ass-kicking, I'd love to see what last year was. Obviously it's all, 'What you've done for me lately?’
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Bielema on Arkansas' disappointing start, per Kurt Voigt of the Associated Press:
"I wish I could say something to make everybody feel a little bit better, our fans, our players. We're just [not] at the point yet where we can not play a perfect game and win.
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Cornerback D.J. Dean on getting back on the right track, per Voigt:
"We don't want to slip back to where we were two years ago, or even a year ago. We want to move on from that, and that's what we're going to do next week [against Texas A&M].
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Prediction
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I imploded in my picks against the spread last week, but these were two teams I nailed.
I said Texas A&M was in a letdown spot and would win but not cover against Nevada, and I said Texas Tech would beat Arkansas outright.
This week, both teams will play good football. It's the start of the SEC season, which for each squad means proving something different about nonconference play. For A&M, it's about proving the first three weeks are not a fluke; for Arkansas, it's about proving they are.
This game will not be a blowout. Arkansas might even lead it late. Bielema couldn't get his team up for Texas Tech last week, but I am higher on the Red Raiders than most. That loss is not the end of the world; it just happened at an awful time.
The biggest difference between these teams is the Allens playing quarterback, and in the end that proves decisive. Kyle Allen makes a big throw for the Aggies, and Brandon Allen, just like last week, comes up short in response.
Razorbacks cover, Aggies win.
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