What Are Reasonable Rookie Expectations for New York Jets OLB Lorenzo Mauldin?

The New York Jets finally found a young, capable edge defender to plug into their 3-4 scheme. Now, the next hurdle is to find out how to get the most juice for their squeeze.

Rookie outside linebacker Lorenzo Mauldin doesn't have the experience of veteran outside linebacker Calvin Pace, the man he will be replacing. What Mauldin does have, though, is athleticism and long-term upside in spades. 

Jets head coach Todd Bowles has more talent on the defensive line in New York than he ever had as defensive coordinator for the Arizona Cardinals. That doesn't mean that the outside linebackers will no longer play a big role in generating a pass rush. Quite the contrary; the edge-rushers could be given more free lanes to the quarterback by virtue of all the double-teams that will be drawn by the likes of Muhammad Wilkerson, Sheldon Richardson, Damon Harrison and Leonard Williams. 

But how have other third-round outside linebackers/defensive ends performed in their first year in the NFL?

Player	G	GS	Tkl	Ast	Sk	PD	FF
Scott Crichton	8	0	2	0	0	0	0
Kareem Martin	11	2	8	0	1	1	1
Will Clarke	7	0	2	1	0	0	0
Damontre Moore	15	0	9	2	0	1	1
Corey Lemonier	16	0	12	3	1	3	1
Sam Montgomery	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Olivier Vernon	16	0	28	5	3.5	0	1
Jake Bequette	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
Justin Houston	16	10	46	10	5.5	4	1

Bowles' outside linebackers are often utilized like defensive ends, spending much more time moving forward (as a pass-rusher or setting the edge in run defense) than backward (in coverage). Thus, while it may seem as though we're painting with a broad brush when we lump defensive ends in with outside linebackers, there's some merit to it.

That being said, when one looks at the edge defenders drafted in the third round from 2011-2014, we do not get a consistent picture of what to expect. 

The Kansas City Chiefs hit the jackpot with the selection of Justin Houston; his 33 sacks over the past two seasons are more than any other player in the NFL. He notched 22 sacks in 2014, which was just 0.5 sacks short of Michael Strahan's single-season record.

Of course, not all third-round draft picks will turn into productive players in their NFL careers. 

Miami Dolphins defensive end Olivier Vernon has tallied 18 sacks in the same two-year span as Houston's 33, but he is worth considering one of the better third-round picks on the list above. Vernon was moved around as a rookie from defensive end to outside linebacker, but really came into his own once he got a chance to hone his skills. It helps playing opposite someone like Cameron Wake on the defensive line.

The other third-round edge defenders are a mixed bag of players who rotate in off the bench, and others who are still struggling to reach their full potential. New York Giants defensive end Damontre Moore belongs in the former group; Moore played 326 defensive snaps (30.3 percent) in 2014, according to Pro Football Focus, the fourth-highest among defensive ends on the team.

New England Patriots defensive end Jake Bequette belongs in the latter group of players who have not yet reached the apex of their ability. Bequette has played in only eight games and participated on only 43 defensive snaps according to Pro Football Focus. With the recent development of Bequette lining up at tight end at practice, it's safe to say the Patriots are losing patience in their former third-round pick.

Mauldin has played multiple spots in the defensive front, from 4-3 defensive end to 3-4 outside linebacker, but his experience as a linebacker in a two-point stance is likely to be what serves him best in New York. At 6'4" and 259 pounds, the rookie pass-rusher has the physical frame that has become the prototype at the position.

That being said, Bowles says there could be a feeling-out process with regard to which position Mauldin will play:

"

First, we have to see how he handles the point of attack. If they run the ball at him, how strong he is at the point with the bigger tight ends in the league as opposed to college, how he plays in space when the tight end is not on him, how he reacts to certain things and you kind of get a feel that way to see what his strengths and his weaknesses are.

"

The Jets need someone to anchor the edge of their defense. Through three years, Quinton Coples has not been the answer. He's shown flashes of first-round ability, but he's notched only 16.5 sacks in his first three years with a career-high of 6.5 in 2014. Sacks aren't the be-all, end-all of production at the position, but even on a per-snap basis, Coples ranked 20th out of 47 qualifying 3-4 outside linebackers in terms of pass-rushing productivity.

The Jets can't expect Mauldin to be that player in Year 1, though. It would be reasonable to expect anywhere in the range of two to five sacks from Mauldin in his rookie season. Anything less than that is not necessarily a death sentence for his NFL career, but anything more should be seen as a blessing and a sign of big things to come. 

Unless otherwise noted, quotes obtained via team news release and practice observations obtained firsthand. All advanced stats obtained via Pro Football Focus.