Why 30 Goals Is a Realistic Aim for Chelsea's Diego Costa in 2015/16 EPL Season
The only Chelsea player ever to score 30 or more goals in the English top flight was Jimmy Greaves.
The Chelsea youth product, perhaps the most natural goalscorer in English football's history, netted 41 goals for the Blues (in 40 league matches) during the 1960/61 season. He was then sold to AC Milan for £80,000 but eventually returned to London—north London, to be specific—to play for Tottenham Hotspur.
Since the now-75-year-old striker's prolific season 54 years ago, only one Blue has flirted with the 30-goal barrier: Ivorian superstar Didier Drogba.
During the 38-game 2009/10 Premier League campaign, in which he missed three games through injury and three games for the 2010 Africa Cup of Nations, the Chelsea legend scored 29 EPL goals.
Were Frank Lampard not the designated penalty taker—of which he took 10 that year, scoring nine)—Drogba likely would have broken the mark and been the eighth player in EPL history to score at least 30 goals in a season. Instead, he fell one strike short.
To even dream of registering 30 goals in England's first division takes three things. The first is world-class quality. The second is sustained form. The third is persistent fitness.
Scanning the present-day Premier League, two centre-forwards have the capability to complete the feat, and Chelsea have one of them. The Blues' Diego Costa can only be rivalled by Manchester City's Sergio Aguero, as the former Atletico Madrid duo consistently have all but the third component (fitness) in our formula.
Absent from 12 league fixtures in 2014/15, Costa provided his new club with 20 goals in 26 appearances—all while battling chronic hamstring issues. Were the Brazilian-born Spanish international's goals-per-minute ratio extended to the 3,420 minutes played throughout 38 matches, he was on pace to score 33 goals in his inaugural English campaign.
Having time to fully recover and with the experience of one English season under his belt, aiming for at least 30 goals in 2015/16 should be Costa's target.
The 26-year-old's success or failure will be primarily determined by the three things he can control—his ability, his form and his body—but outside of himself, Costa must contend with possibly the most pressing threat to a 30-goal season: Jose Mourinho's tactics.
Chelsea are managed to win, not necessarily to entertain.
Ownership, management, the players and supporters agree that winning, above all else, is the foremost factor in determining whether a season has been a triumph, and would gladly sacrifice sexy football for silverware.
While fantastic for the trophy cabinet, not so much the centre-forward.
In the moment, Costa will not be consumed with statistical accumulation. As a footballer, his objective is getting three points and getting them by any means necessary, but Chelsea's pragmatic setup tends to make goalscorers bear less fruit—both home and away sides.
The 2015/16 Blues will not adopt, for instance, Carlo Ancelotti's 2009/10 expansive mindset. Nearly everything the Spaniard earns will be hard-fought and of consequence.
As the head travels, so goes the body.
Mourinho is not defensive for the sake of defence. He plays with the finish line in sight—as do his players. Retaining the league title is Chelsea's primary objective next season; any individual ambitions take a backseat.
That said, however, goals win matches—just as much as keeping them out accomplishes the same task.
While Costa aiming for 30 goals in one Premier League season might be slight overreaching (as EPL history would suggest), falling short in the high 20s would not be a failure, rather a positive.
As the modern philosopher Kanye West once wrote: "Reach for the stars so if you fall, you land on a cloud."
*Stats via WhoScored.com; transfer fees via Soccerbase where not noted.
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