England and Germany Laughing as World Cup Picture Gets Marginally Clearer
If this really was Sepp Blatter’s final World Cup draw as president of FIFA—and, despite his insistence that he will indeed resign next February, it must still be a case of believing it when we actually see it—then he handed out a few farewell gifts to some of the big European nations on Saturday.
Holders Germany were handed a path to Russia 2018 that sees Czech Republic and Northern Ireland constitute the biggest tests of their qualification process, while Portugal will be similarly confident of progressing top of a group that contains Switzerland and Hungary.
Then there is England, who found out in St Petersburg that the most prominent challenge they will face in qualifying for a tournament that they once hoped to host will come from their oldest and closest of enemies: Scotland.
The two remaining Home Nations, Wales and Republic of Ireland, are also grouped together, creating genuine hopes that all four can sweep up the two automatic qualification berths and two additional play-off spots from their respective groups.
Of course, for every kind draw there were a couple of dramatic, tough ones. Netherlands ended up being the unfortunate top seed to be placed in the same group as the most dangerous of second seeds France—something that is unlikely to delight new head coach Danny Blind—while Italy will perhaps be cursing their own inability to wrap up a top seed after they were thrown into Group G alongside the 2010 World Cup winners Spain.
Beyond that it was perhaps Groups E and I that offered the most intrigue, with arguably five countries in those groups that will entertain viable ambitions of making at least the play-offs for a tournament that, it should not be forgotten, remains the best part of three years away. There is always drama to be found in such qualification processes, and it certainly seems those two groups are likely to be the toughest to predict.
"Today is an important day in the long and winding road to the World Cup 2018," as Blatter had said before the draw, per the Guardian. "We are on track, Russia will be a fantastic host. It will be a wonderful moment for Russia, the rest of the world and for football."
World Cup qualifying groups - European section
Group A: Netherlands, France, Sweden, Bulgaria, Belarus, Luxembourg.
Group B: Portugal, Switzerland, Hungary, Faroe Islands, Latvia, Andorra.
Group C: Germany, Czech Republic, Northern Ireland, Norway, Azerbaijan, San Marino.
Group D: Wales, Austria, Serbia, Republic of Ireland, Moldova, Georgia.
Group E: Romania, Denmark, Poland, Montenegro, Armenia, Kazakhstan.
Group F: England, Slovakia, Scotland, Slovenia, Lithuania, Malta.
Group G: Spain, Italy, Albania, Israel, FYR Macedonia, Liechtenstein.
Group H: Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Greece, Estonia, Cyprus.
Group I: Croatia, Iceland, Ukraine, Turkey, Finland.
Group participants listed in seed order (top seeds first)
Considering that much of the heat currently at Blatter’s door—and the comedian responsible for the prank earlier in the week that saw him showered with money—stems from England, the Swiss may have secretly been disappointed to see the Three Lions handed such an achievable path to the finals.
When asked prior the draw whether he wanted an easy group or one that offered some semblance of a test, England head coach Roy Hodgson acknowledged without much equivocation that an easy group would be the preference— arguing that qualifying for the finals is never straightforward, so any help you can get should not be dismissed lightly.
If that is the case, then he will now be delighted, with England undoubtedly the overwhelming favourites to emerge from Group F. Of course that comes with its own pressures, although England have not had a problem with that in recent campaigns.
“I don’t want to suggest Italy are stronger than Scotland, but we have played a lot of games against Italy recently and I thought that group with the rest of the teams in it looked more tricky than the group we have found ourselves in,” Hodgson told the BBC (via The FA).
"We know Slovenia and Malta are very keen on English football, while Slovakia from the second pot, although they have had a good spell, maybe do not have the allure of France and Italy, who may cause us more problems."
In many ways it might be a perfect draw for England—having avoided a poison pill pairing with France or Italy, throwing Scotland into the mix creates a winnable tie that will nevertheless provide a stern mental test for a squad that remains relatively inexperienced at international level.
“The Scotland fixture really does excite people,” Hodgson acknowledged. “We have got recent experience of what the atmosphere will be like. The games will excite the public, get people in the mass media excited too, it is a good draw all round—I think Scotland will be happy with it and we are happy with it.
From the Scottish perspective, the initial reaction was a belief that they could defeat the Auld Enemy to clinch automatic qualification from the group themselves (memories of last year's friendly at Celtic Park, when England were comfortable winners, apparently did not live long).
More realistically, however, the other opponents in the group are sides Gordon Strachan will feel confident can be beaten to a play-off spot. The England ties will capture the imagination, but the momentum and support those games generate might prove more valuable in the other fixtures.
Strachan told Sky Sports: “It’s a fantastic fixture that the whole of Scotland and England will be looking forward to.”
Wales and the Republic of Ireland will share similar sentiments as they reflect on the draw, although both Austria and Serbia will certainly have to be respected in what looks likely to be a tight Group D. Other teams, however, will feel somewhat despondent—with Sweden in particular wondering what they did to deserve being placed alongside Netherlands and France, one of whom they will now need to overcome simply to grab a play-off spot.
What they would surely give to swap with Poland, for example, another third seed who ended up in an altogether more attainable group that includes Denmark and Romania.
Of course it is another 12 months until qualification games even start, with a European Championships to be held in between, and plenty can change in that time.
Considering that it is probably wise not to make more than the most general of assessments but, even so, it is safe to say that few nations are walking away from Saturday’s draw happier than England.
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