Can Lamar Miller Earn A Big Contract in Final Year with Miami Dolphins?

Lamar Miller is no longer the only horse in the Miami Dolphins' stable of running backs. He is now competing with rookie Jay Ajayi for the snaps, the carries, the touches and the opportunities. 

But Miller is also competing with every other soon-to-be free-agent running back. When the 2015 season is through and the 2016 NFL offseason begins, Miller will hit the open market, where he will either be looking for new work or hoping to stay in familiar surroundings in Miami. If he elects to stay with the Dolphins, his cozy role as the No. 1 back may be compromised due to the presence of Ajayi.

Let's face it: that role is compromised already, and so is Miller's ability to prove himself worthy of a big contract following the 2015 season.

In fact, Miller may have had a difficult enough time proving himself as a bell cow even without the addition of Ajayi. They have refused to do so in the past, and have failed to make Miller a true "feature back" despite lacking any other suitable options in their backfield.

Of course, part of the problem is the Dolphins' imbalance on offense. Their balance of 61.6 percent pass plays was ninth-highest in the league, making their 38.4 run play percentage the ninth-lowest, according to TeamRankings.com. 

Perhaps the Dolphins will focus more on the running game now that they have two reliable backs for their offense. Even with more running plays called, Miller might still be facing an uphill battle. Consider this: Miller had 216 of the Dolphins' 399 total running plays last year, or 54.1 percent. Even if you don't count quarterback carries (58) and wide receiver reverses (seven), Miller had 64.7 percent of the Dolphins' running back carries last year.

It's safe to assume that Miller's workload will dip at least marginally. How could it not? Miller would have to maintain at least 50 percent of the carries, and the Dolphins would have to devote all their running plays to the running backs and run the ball 33 more times just for Miller to get close to the same number of opportunities he had last year.

That would mean Miller and Ajayi would end up with 216 carries apiece, and that's just not going to happen. Since 2010, only two teams have had two backs total more than 200 carries in a season: the Buffalo Bills in 2010 (Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller) and the Kansas City Chiefs in 2013 (Thomas Jones and Jamaal Charles). Both of those teams finished No. 1 in the league in total running plays.

The Dolphins could be the third such team, in theory, but they haven't shown the commitment to the running game that would be necessary to achieve that result. 

Miller may be hoping to improve on his performance in 2014, but the opportunities might not be there.

"

Lamar Miller not content after going over 1,000 yds in 2014 "This year, I’m looking forward to a better year. Try to improve from last year”

— The Finsiders (@TheFinsiders) July 20, 2015"

He is fighting not only against a regime that appears to be looking to move into the future with a young, fresh running back; he is also fighting against a coaching staff that simply does not value the running game.

There's the possibility that the Dolphins could bring Ajayi along slowly, working him into the offense over the course of the season rather than thrusting him into the heart of the fire right out of the gate. Again, even assuming the Dolphins move slowly on Ajayi doesn't change their to-date disregard for the running game.

It's more likely that Miller will finish the 2015 season with 200 or so rushing attempts, assuming he stays healthy and the Dolphins don't aim to phase him out of the offense altogether. 

Miller appears to be the second coming of former Bills running back C.J. Spiller: supremely talented, criminally underused. He may find his gifts much more appreciated by some other team, but he may not find the payday he's hoping to see when he hits the other side of his rookie contract.