San Francisco 49ers: Evaluating Some of Their Largest Contracts
Colin Kaepernick has the longest contract on the San Francisco 49ers. His deal runs through the end of the 2020 season. He actually has more years left on his contract than he’s played in the NFL. To put that in perspective, only three NFL players are actually under contract after that point: J.J. Watt in Houston, Gerald McCoy in Tampa Bay and Tyron Smith in Dallas.
Of course, contracts aren’t guarantees in the NFL. While Kaepernick’s deal still has over $110 million in cap hits left on it, per Over the Cap, just under $9.9 million of it is guaranteed to be on the books—the remainder of the signing bonus he received when he signed the new contract 13 months ago.
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Cutting Kaepernick this season was technically an option, though not a very realistic one—the 49ers would have accrued $9.9 million in dead-money cap charges and only received $5.4 million of cap space to work with. $5.4 million is $5.4 million, which wouldn't really be sufficient to sign a replacement at the position.
Next year, however, the 49ers would save $9.4 million by cutting Kaepernick and only suffer $7.4 million in dead cap money. While that would still be a lot of dead cap to drag around, that becomes a more realistic possibility next year and every year after that.
Therefore, while Kaepernick’s contract runs through 2020, his “true” contract—the parts of it that he was more or less guaranteed to make regardless of his play on the field—only really extends through the 2015 season. The last five seasons, thanks to the lack of guaranteed money, are more or less fungible from the team’s perspective.
That’s a more useful way of looking at deals rather than seeing that a player is under contract for the next X seasons—how long is it before the team could reasonably escape from the deal in a worst-case scenario? By that measure, Dez Bryant’s new deal doesn’t really go through the 2019 season; the guaranteed money really makes him a fixture in Dallas through 2017, with the last two years being up to the Cowboys themselves.
That’s a better way of looking at roster construction and thinking about future player acquisitions and the like. We can look at the 49ers and see when they can keep players and how long they have to keep players—two different metrics for measuring contracts and evaluating which players might get cut and when.
A somewhat subjective metric is used here to decide when a player can be cut—obviously, teams can cut players at any time, but there are some points when it’s just more financially feasible than others. The borderline for when a player can be cut is when the amount of dead money cutting a player would generate is equal to or less than half of their scheduled cap hit—in other words, it’s OK to add $8 million in dead money if you get an extra $8 million in cap space on top of that.
Using that metric, nine of San Francisco’s 10 largest contracts are locked into place for at least 2015, with Vernon Davis being the only exception. Let’s take a look at the other nine and see when the 49ers could move on and what the odds are they might do just that.
Unless otherwise specified, all contract values are from Over the Cap.
Colin Kaepernick
| 2015 | $10,400,000 | $2,465,753 | $2,400,000 | $15,265,753 | $9,863,013 | $5,402,740 | No |
| 2016 | $11,900,000 | $2,465,753 | $2,400,000 | $16,765,753 | $7,397,260 | $9,368,493 | Yes |
| 2017 | $14,500,000 | $2,465,753 | $2,400,000 | $19,365,753 | $4,931,507 | $14,434,246 | Yes |
| 2018 | $15,000,000 | $2,465,754 | $2,400,000 | $19,865,754 | $2,465,754 | $17,400,000 | Yes |
| 2019 | $16,800,000 | $0 | $2,400,000 | $19,200,000 | $0 | $19,200,000 | Yes |
| 2020 | $19,000,000 | $0 | $2,400,000 | $21,400,000 | $0 | $21,400,000 | Yes |
Kaepernick’s deal was originally reported as being a massive one, with $61 million guaranteed, but that’s simply not the case.
Kaepernick’s deal is much more flexible, with his base salary guaranteed for injury only until April 1 of each league year. In addition, his contract has escalators requiring Kaepernick to be named an All-Pro or for the team to make the Super Bowl, neither of which happened last year, so the contract value was reduced even more.
That’s a long-winded way of saying that while Kaepernick’s deal locked him in for 2015, even if the team had a better alternative than Blaine Gabbert, that’s no longer the case after this season. That’s why this is such a make-or-break year for him; if he plays poorly this season, the 49ers could demand he restructures his contract or they'll simply let him go.
$7.4 million in dead money would be a bitter pill to swallow, but the cap savings would be enough to sign a reasonable veteran for a one- or two-year transition and to draft a highly touted quarterback to groom to be the next starter.
NaVorro Bowman
| 2015 | $4,700,000 | $2,954,000 | $750,000 | $8,404,000 | $8,106,000 | $298,000 | No |
| 2016 | $5,850,000 | $2,954,000 | $750,000 | $9,554,000 | $5,062,000 | $4,492,000 | No |
| 2017 | $6,750,000 | $1,454,000 | $750,000 | $8,954,000 | $2,108,000 | $6,846,000 | Yes |
| 2018 | $8,700,000 | $654,000 | $750,000 | $10,104,000 | $654,000 | $9,450,000 | Yes |
The biggest football-related reason to root for NaVorro Bowman to return to his pre-injury form is the need for an All-Pro linebacker in the center of the defense now Patrick Willis has retired. The second biggest football-related reason is thanks to the fact that Bowman renegotiated his contract in 2014 to free up cap room, turning base salary into a signing bonus. That means for the next two seasons, cutting Bowman would be a hefty hit to the salary cap.
Obviously, if Bowman returns without missing a beat, he’s worth every penny of his deal. However, with the third-highest cap hit among inside linebackers in 2015 and the fourth-highest in 2016, Bowman has to play at a high level to justify San Francisco's outlay. If it turns out his knee injury has a long-term negative effect on his play, and he’s not a top-five inside linebacker any more, he might eventually have to take a pay cut.
Joe Staley
| 2015 | $4,500,000 | $2,400,000 | $700,000 | $7,600,000 | $11,200,000 | ($3,600,000) | No |
| 2016 | $5,400,000 | $2,200,000 | $700,000 | $8,300,000 | $8,800,000 | ($500,000) | No |
| 2017 | $8,250,000 | $2,200,000 | $700,000 | $11,150,000 | $6,600,000 | $4,550,000 | No |
| 2018 | $4,800,000 | $2,200,000 | $700,000 | $7,700,000 | $4,400,000 | $3,300,000 | No |
| 2019 | $4,800,000 | $2,200,000 | $700,000 | $7,700,000 | $2,200,000 | $5,500,000 | Yes |
Arguably the top offensive tackle in football—or at least very much in the discussion for that title—Joe Staley is safely locked up for at least the next four years with no chance of leaving the team. The 49ers would actually lose cap space over the next two seasons if they, for some reason, decided to move on from Staley.
The 49ers did this when they renegotiated his contract last year. They added low-cost option years in 2018 and 2019, in which the 49ers will get a top tackle at a very reasonable price. The tradeoff they had to make was giving Staley a larger bonus upfront, locking them in to a long-term deal with him. That’s fine; he’s a great offensive tackle. You don’t need as much mobility if you’re not planning to ever let go of the guy.
Ahmad Brooks
| 2015 | $3,500,000 | $2,348,750 | $1,300,000 | $7,148,750 | $5,546,250 | $1,508,750 | No |
| 2016 | $6,500,000 | $2,348,750 | $850,000 | $9,698,750 | $3,197,500 | $6,501,250 | Yes |
| 2017 | $6,950,000 | $848,750 | $850,000 | $8,648,750 | $848,750 | $7,800,000 | Yes |
Note that Over the Cap has not yet registered that Ahmad Brooks saw his 2015 salary drop from $6 million to $3.5 million thanks to a variety of playing-time and performance-related requirements, per Niners Nation. This doesn’t make him strictly uncuttable; cutting him now, after the June 1 deadline, would split his dead-money hit over two seasons.
However, with Brooks’ cap number dropping from nearly $9.7 million to just over $7.1 million, he becomes a much more reasonable option for 2015. With Eli Harold and Aaron Lynch under contract for the future and Aldon Smith looming as a potential free agent, it's hard to see Brooks remaining in San Francisco beyond this season without similar cost reductions.
| 2015 | $750,000 | $1,600,000 | $1,250,000 | $3,600,000 | $8,750,000 | ($5,150,000) | No |
| 2016 | $4,500,000 | $1,600,000 | $1,500,000 | $7,600,000 | $6,400,000 | $1,200,000 | No |
| 2017 | $6,500,000 | $1,600,000 | $1,500,000 | $9,600,000 | $4,800,000 | $4,800,000 | Maybe |
| 2018 | $6,500,000 | $1,600,000 | $1,500,000 | $9,600,000 | $3,200,000 | $6,400,000 | Yes |
| 2019 | $6,500,000 | $1,600,000 | $1,500,000 | $9,600,000 | $1,600,000 | $8,000,000 | Yes |
You don’t sign a big-time free agent such as Torrey Smith without making a multiple-year commitment to him. His deal, which includes an $8.75-million signing bonus, makes him the 15th-highest-paid receiver in football, which is a bit pricey considering his actual level of production so far. However, that’s the price you have to pay to bring someone in during free agency as opposed to drafting and raising your own talent.
At the moment, Smith is slated to be the 10th-highest paid receiver in football in 2017, though contracts signed between now and then will change that. If Smith takes steps forward in his development, then that’ll probably be worth it, but he’s never been a true do-anything, No. 1 receiver. $4.8 million in dead money is a lot for a receiver, so he may be safe through 2017 at any rate.
Antoine Bethea
| 2015 | $3,000,000 | $1,250,000 | $500,000 | $4,750,000 | $3,750,000 | $1,000,000 | No |
| 2016 | $4,500,000 | $1,250,000 | $500,000 | $6,250,000 | $2,500,000 | $3,750,000 | Yes |
| 2017 | $5,250,000 | $1,250,000 | $500,000 | $7,000,000 | $1,250,000 | $5,750,000 | Yes |
When Antoine Bethea’s 2015 base salary became fully-guaranteed on April 1, it was an obvious sign he was sticking around for this season—not that you needed a reason, considering both his remaining signing bonus and the little fact he was named Team MVP last season.
With the 49ers drafting Jimmie Ward and Jaquiski Tartt highly in recent years, though, Bethea is kind of on a year-to-year deal after this point. If and when the 49ers feel their young players are ready to step in, Bethea’s deal becomes far easier to swallow.
Bethea will be 32 years old at the start of the 2016 season, and that’s beginning to get up there for a defender. There are plenty of examples of safeties who played at a high level into their mid-30s, with Charles Woodson coming to mind immediately, but it’s still a wise precaution on the 49ers’ side to have a transition plan in place.
Tramaine Brock
| 2015 | $1,850,000 | $750,000 | $450,000 | $2,790,000 | $2,250,000 | $540,000 | No |
| 2016 | $2,700,000 | $750,000 | $450,000 | $3,900,000 | $1,500,000 | $2,400,000 | Yes |
| 2017 | $3,100,000 | $750,000 | $450,000 | $4,300,000 | $750,000 | $3,550,000 | Yes |
Tramaine Brock received a healthy contract extension in 2013 as part of a breakout season, where he went from a bottom-of-the-roster player to a starting cornerback by year’s end. The hope was that he would continue to make that progress in 2014, but hamstring and toe injuries shut him down for most of 2014.
His addition to the secondary should be a major boost in 2015, offsetting the losses of Chris Culliver and Perrish Cox to some extent. That is, assuming he returns to his 2013 form. His contract extension locked him up for a few more seasons, but there’s a lot of young talent behind him, including Dontae Johnson, Keith Reaser and Kenneth Acker. If one or more pass him on the depth chart, they will be much more affordable starting in 2016.
Anquan Boldin
| 2015 | $5,500,000 | $909,000 | $500,000 | $6,909,000 | $3,636,000 | $3,273,000 | No |
| 2016 | $1,200,000 | $909,000 | $0 | $2,109,000 | $2,727,000 | -$618,000 | N/A |
| 2017 | $1,200,000 | $909,000 | $0 | $2,109,000 | $1,818,000 | $291,000 | N/A |
| 2018 | $1,200,000 | $909,000 | $0 | $2,109,000 | $909,000 | $1,200,000 | N/A |
Anquan Boldin’s contract is actually just contact voodoo. He’s technically signed through 2018, with base salaries and everything, but those last three years are voidable and likely will not count—they’re just there to extend Boldin’s signing bonus over five years at $909,000 a year rather than two years at $2.3 million a year.
If Boldin opts to play another season, those years will likely be voided and a new deal struck. It was all a way to give Boldin more money prior to the 2014 season without actually having it all count against the cap at one time—a fine strategy when used sparingly, but one that got the 49ers into trouble in the 1990s.
Arik Armstead
| 2015 | $435,000 | $1,354,569 | $0 | $1,789,569 | $9,842,648 | ($8,503,059) | No |
| 2016 | $882,392 | $1,354,569 | $0 | $2,236,951 | $8,053,059 | ($5,816,098) | No |
| 2017 | $1,329,784 | $1,354,569 | $0 | $2,684,353 | $5,816,098 | ($3,131,745) | No |
| 2018 | $1,777,176 | $1,354,569 | $0 | $3,131,745 | $3,131,745 | $0 | No |
The 49ers’ 10th-largest contract is Arik Armstead’s rookie deal. This mostly means they don’t have a lot of large contracts on the books going forward, as all rookie deals are pretty much locked in thanks to the latest collective bargaining agreement.
Two of the 49ers’ next largest contracts are also first-round rookies in Eric Reid and Jimmie Ward, and a third is Aldon Smith’s modified fifth-year option. The 49ers don’t have a lot of major long-term deals on the books.
By contrast, the Seattle Seahawks have 12 contracts worth $10 million or more on the books, which doesn’t include Russell Wilson or Bobby Wagner, both of whom are due large extensions. The St. Louis Rams have 14 such contracts, and the Arizona Cardinals have 10.
With only nine $10 million-plus contracts on the books, the 49ers are slated to have more financial wiggle room than their divisional rivals in upcoming seasons, with an estimated $35 million of space under 2016’s salary cap and 68 players already under contract. The Seahawks have more room at $38 million, but that only covers 59 players, as well as not yet including extensions for Wilson or Wagner. They’re not bad off, but they could see their salary-cap number take a massive hit or lose some franchise players.
The 49ers don’t have massive salary obligations going forward, and even the players who do count the most against the cap are flexible as their numbers max out.
Bryan Knowles is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report, covering the San Francisco 49ers. Follow him @BryKno on twitter.
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