Dallas Mavericks Must Take New Approach in Next-Era Rebuild
Ever since winning their lone NBA championship in 2011, the Dallas Mavericks have trafficked in moral victories, tethering their immediate fate to contingency plans designed to preserve aggressive free-agency intentions.
Now, after striking out on their initial strategy once more, albeit it in unpredictable fashion, the Mavericks have finally reached a point where they must rebuild, not retool, and promote the stability they've willingly eschewed for years.
DeAndre Jordan's free-agent about-face is, of course, the trigger for such a strong stance. The Mavericks had him, and then, quite suddenly, they didn't.
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DeAndre's Indecision: A Symptom of Bigger Issues
A protracted moratorium period, during which teams can only reach verbal agreements with free agents, betrayed them. Jordan was given ample time to mull his departure from the Los Angeles Clippers, the only team for which he has played, and the same one that finished a victory shy of a 2015 Western Conference Finals bid.
As detailed beautifully by ESPN.com's Tim MacMahon and Ramona Shelburne, the freedom to think and dissect and second-guess his decision paved the way for Jordan to change course and spurn Dallas.
Emerging from your primary pursuit empty-handed is an inherent risk of restructuring through free agency. But, on every level imaginable, Jordan's flip-flop remains unfair to the Mavericks.
They invested so much in him and only him, and snagging that "commitment" directly impacted their offseason approach. Jordan, to them, represented money they couldn't spend elsewhere.
The Mavericks thought they landed a cornerstone. Maybe not one who, even with Wesley Matthews, would instantly vault them into unmistakable title contention. But one who, at 26 years old, considerably brightened both the present and the future.
Losing him to indecision meant the Mavericks missed out on diverting their attention to other big names. The pool of available impact players dried up. Verbal commitments were given elsewhere and, in every other instance, upheld.
All the Mavericks could do was lament their misfortune for a hot minute, and then start over.
"There's nothing you can do about it," owner Mark Cuban said, per MacMahon. "You think for a second, 'Is there anything I could change?' You think for another second, 'What have I learned so I can do it differently next time?' And then you move forward and say, 'What are our options?'"
Given their dearth of supplemental options, the Mavericks have rebounded quite nicely following Jordan's U-turn.
Matthews kept his word and will be in Dallas next season. Trading for Zaza Pachulia at least provides head coach Rick Carlisle with a big body to plug in the middle. Officially signing Deron Williams gives the Mavericks a star-level name to run point without breaking the bank.
Assuming health, this is a team that figures to be competitive in 2015-16. A starting lineup consisting of Williams, Matthews, Chandler Parsons, Dirk Nowitzki and Pachulia, while inept defensively, has the potential to anchor one of the NBA's five best offenses.
But remaining competitive after having to pick up the pieces of grounded offseason hopes is becoming an all-too-familiar theme in Dallas.
Instead of a amassing prospects and picks, the Mavericks have implemented a rolling flexibility model that allows them to chase expedited leaps. They were one of the front-runners for Williams during the 2012 free agency. And then they were one of the favorites to land Dwight Howard in 2013. And then they were in the conversation for Carmelo Anthony and Chris Bosh in 2014.
Merely joining these conversations, though, has come at a steep cost.
The Mavericks took a wrecking ball to their 2011 title-toting squad, bidding farewell to key contributors such as J.J. Barea and Tyson Chandler that summer. They let Jason Terry walk in 2012.
Vince Carter was poached by the Memphis Grizzlies in 2014 after helping Dallas nearly upset the eventual champion San Antonio Spurs in the first round of the playoffs. Al-Farouq Aminu, Chandler and Monta Ellis signed elsewhere this summer while the team devoted all its energy to courting Jordan.
Each time, the Mavericks' roster turnover has been for naught, forcing them to scour the market for consolation prizes and short-term deals that won't prohibit them from returning to the free-agent tables next year.
Monta Ellis' flexibility-friendly contract was their silver medal in 2013. Overpaying Parsons and reacquiring Chandler and Barea was their red ribbon in 2014. Pachulia, Williams and, to a lesser extent, Matthews is their good-job-good-effort bronze star for 2015.
Regularly shifting directions on the fly is dangerous. But, in the Mavericks' case, it's been mostly admirable. They've won 56.4 percent of their regular-season tilts over the last four seasons, the league's 11th-best mark, all while fielding a makeshift core.
And, until now, that's been enough.
It's not anymore.
Still Searching for a Foundation
That much became apparent when the Mavericks lost out on Jordan and the reflexive reaction diverged from those of years past.
"It's time to tank in Dallas," MacMahon wrote on the heels of Jordan's decision. "This isn't a choice. It's inevitable."
Calling for the Mavericks to tank would have, at one point, qualified as a hot take—an unfathomably ignorant take, even. Bottoming out isn't their style. They have a 37-year-old Nowitzki playing for pennies on the dollar to plan around, hence the emphasis on poaching marquee talent in free agency.
But for the first time, if only briefly, tanking wasn't a taboo subject in Dallas.
Rather, it was Cuban's brainchild.
"If we got shut out, we weren't just going to try to fill out the roster," he told 1310 The Ticket in Dallas, per MacMahon. "We literally had the discussions that if we couldn't get a serious free agent, whether it's one of the other guys that are still out there or any of the early ones that went, that it was a time to step back."
Cuban, of course, wasn't in this same situation then. He was speaking while celebrating Jordan's arrival, as an owner who had succeeded, not failed.
Reality has since set in, and the Mavericks aren't tanking. Again, it's not their style.
Manufacturing a loss-loaded season wouldn't have promised them anything anyway. The Boston Celtics will own the Mavericks' top pick in 2016 if it falls outside the top seven as compensation for the Rajon Rondo trade—another impulsive move that's kept in theme with Dallas' fluid retooling process.
If the Mavericks did retain their selection, there's no guarantee it would turn into anything or anyone special. The NBA draft is very much a crapshoot, and they would have needed to be 2011-12 Charlotte Bobcats terrible to put themselves in line for a pick that could land a star via trade.
There's also Nowitzki, who has just two years left on his deal and is now a barrier blocking Dallas' rebuild. As Andrew Kreighbaum wrote for Mavs Moneyball:
"Were it not for the draft pick considerations, the decision to tank might be clear. Except that the team has Nowitzki under contract two more seasons. Dirk's not only the greatest player in franchise history, he's arguably the most accomplished athlete in Dallas sports history. With one title under his belt, he's shown no inclination to move elsewhere to compete for another one. And unless he asks for a trade, the Mavericks won't look to move him.
Nowitzki has taken millions less than he he's worth to give the franchise opportunities to add talent and chase big name free agents over the last half decade. Cuban should give him the chance to finish his career here on a competitive squad and fight for another playoff spot, if nothing else.
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Doing right by Nowitzki has long been the Mavericks' foremost goal. Especially now, when he's the third-highest-paid player for a squad on which he's the only one to make an All-Star appearance this side of 2009.
Still, at the same time, the Mavericks have never had more of a reason to place Nowitzki's twilight on the back burner.
Prioritizing his fast-fading title window, and therefore free agency, over a long-term vision worked these last four years. The Mavericks were one of a few teams, if not the only team, consistently positioned to make splashy signings every year.
Next summer, when the salary cap balloons to $89 million, more than half the league will have or be able to create max-contract space. Their financial flexibility won't be a rare commodity.
What will their selling point be then? Come play with a 38-year-old Nowitzki on the verge of retiring? Join forces with Matthews, whose productivity will forever be in question after he suffered an Achilles tear last season?
Sync up with Parsons, who owns a player option for 2016-17 and could decide to leave Dallas himself?
As currently constructed, the Mavericks do not have an obvious foundation around which to build. If you think Matthews and Parsons—both of whom are coming off major surgeries—are enough, you're kidding yourself.
Planning for Tomorrow, Not Today
Ready or not, the next era is coming. Nowitzki will almost assuredly retire following the 2016-17 campaign, at which point the Mavericks need to have a definitive foundation in place, or at least a plan to lay one down.
They will once again have plenty of cap space in 2016 and 2017. By the summer of 2017, they should own the rights to all their forthcoming first-rounders.
That spending power, and those draft picks, cannot be the vessel through which the Mavericks attempt their next insta-turnaround. They'll need to draft players they intend to keep and develop, and sign players who will be in Dallas for the long haul.
This will invariably entail abandoning offseason tunnel-vision. Superstar free agents will remain possibilities, but Dallas must be prepared to funnel long-term commitments into glue guys, not unlike the New York Knicks did this summer. And they must also, to some degree, be in the business of asset-hoarding, not unlike the Celtics.
If the last few summers have taught the Mavericks anything, it should be that they've evaded just about every traditional restructuring method long enough. And Jordan's change of heart should be nothing if not the last bit of evidence they need.
It's time for the Mavericks to rebuild not for the era about to pass them by, but for the one quickly, and without pause, descending upon them now.
Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com Draft-pick commitments from RealGM. Salary information via Basketball Insiders.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @danfavale.
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