What Are Reasonable Rookie Expectations for Miami Dolphins WR DeVante Parker?

The Miami Dolphins have surrounded quarterback Ryan Tannehill with the best set of weapons on offense he's ever had in his three-year career. That statement is true thanks in large part to the selection of wide receiver DeVante Parker with the No. 14 overall pick in this year's draft.

That being said, not every rookie wide receiver is going to burst onto the scene with the same immediacy as Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Julio Jones, Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver A.J. Green, New York Giants wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. or Carolina Panthers wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin.

Wide receivers face an easier transition to the NFL now than they ever have before thanks to the increasing influence of college concepts on NFL offenses. In the past, wideouts faced a steep learning curve, as they were forced not just to digest a new playbook, but to learn new routes, route concepts and new defenses they had never seen at the college level.

But more and more, we're seeing receivers who are getting opportunities to contribute in big ways right out of the gate.

Player	Tgt.	Rec.	Yds	YPR	TD
Sammy Watkins	128	65	982	15.1	6
Mike Evans	122	68	1051	15.5	12
Odell Beckham Jr.	130	91	1305	14.3	12
Brandin Cooks	69	53	550	10.4	3
Kelvin Benjamin	145	73	1008	13.8	9
Tavon Austin	69	40	418	10.5	4
DeAndre Hopkins	91	52	802	15.4	2
Cordarrelle Patterson	77	45	469	10.4	4
Justin Blackmon	132	64	865	13.5	5
Michael Floyd	86	45	562	12.5	2
Kendall Wright	104	64	626	9.8	4
A.J. Jenkins	1	0	0	0	0
A.J. Green	115	65	1057	16.3	7
Julio Jones	95	54	959	17.8	8
Jonathan Baldwin	52	21	254	12.1	1

We've composed this chart of wide receivers who have been drafted in the first round since 2011 to get an idea for the threshold of their production. 

The obvious outliers on the list are San Francisco 49ers wide receiver A.J. Jenkins and Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Jonathan Baldwin. The two are considered some of the bigger busts in recent draft history, so much so that the two teams engaged in a one-for-one trade to hopefully squeeze any sort of life out of their failed first-round picks.

Excluding those two wide receivers, the standard season averages 60 receptions for about 820 yards and six touchdowns. That would be a solid rookie campaign for just about any receiver. Those numbers are all skewed a bit by the top receivers on the list: Benjamin, Beckham and Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Mike Evans have all set a new standard of excellence among rookie receivers.

There's no reason Parker can't live up to that standard. 

There are a couple of hurdles in his way. Unlike other first-round wide receivers in the past, Parker will probably not be the top target in the offense. That role is likely to go to second-year wideout Jarvis Landry, who led the Dolphins in receptions last year.

Parker is also rehabbing from a recent foot surgery. He has been dealing with a foot fracture that happened at the start of the 2014 season and had a screw replaced as a preemptive strike. 

He should be ready for Week 1, according to Dolphins vice president of football operations Mike Tannenbaum (via Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald), but Jake Davidow of Rotoworld points out that he may not be completely past that hurdle just yet.

"

[Parker's] foot is the big concern. First year wide receiver players coming off a fracture in the foot usually struggle with injuries the first year or two back. Examples of wide receivers who have fractured their feet and were injured in a year or two that followed: 

Julio Jones (hamstring, ankle then refractured the foot) 

Demaryius Thomas (refractured the foot and then tore Achilles)

Hakeem Nicks (refractured the foot)

Michael Crabtree (tore Achilles)

"

Let's stay on the safe side of the spectrum—after all, these are supposed to be "reasonable" expectations. If Landry gets a majority of the targets (which he should), and if Parker misses a game or two (which he might), the Dolphins' first-round pick may take a little while to get off the ground. 

Even if he's not raking in a high volume of catches and doesn't have enough receptions to help him reach 1,000 yards as a rookie, he can still immediately help the Dolphins' red-zone offense. The 6'3", 209-pound receiver has 33 ¼-inch arms to extend over his head or in any other direction and a 36 ½-inch vertical jump to help him make contested catches in tight spaces and win jump-ball situations. 

At this point, it's reasonable to predict 50 catches, 650 yards (13 yards per reception) and six touchdowns from the Dolphins' rookie receiver.