Best Free-Agent Landing Spots for LaMarcus Aldridge During 2015 Offseason
LaMarcus Aldridge's foray into free agency is taking on new meaning. He is no longer preparing to stay put. He's looking for a new home.
A person "with knowledge of the Aldridge pursuit" told the Columbian's Erik Gundersen that Aldridge has already informed the Portland Trail Blazers he will be signing elsewhere over the summer. Aldridge denied the rumor through general manager Neil Olshey, per CSNNW, but this latest development keeps in theme with the Blazers' most recent actions.
As Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski first reported, they shipped Nicolas Batum to the Charlotte Hornets for Gerald Henderson and Noah Vonleh. They also acquired another frontcourt prospect in Mason Plumlee from the Brooklyn Nets, a move that ESPN.com's Marc Stein said is rooted in Aldridge's foreordained departure.
Figuring out where Aldridge should go next is a matter of sifting through the rumor mill and plucking out interested suitors. From there, we'll rank his most popular potential destinations by weighing two pressing factors: team fit and financial feasibility.
Team fit will rely on the system and surrounding personnel Aldridge will be joining. He needs to make sense as an addition to those his new club already employs.
Financial feasibility comes down to cap space. Interested parties must be able to afford Aldridge, or at the bare minimum, they need to be in a position to carve out spending power that would allow them to afford to him.
Send your condolences to blindsided Blazers fans later. The search for Aldridge's new home is on.
5. Houston Rockets
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Striking out on Carmelo Anthony and Chris Bosh last summer hasn't spoiled the Houston Rockets' appetite for superstars.
General manager Daryl Morey is, as always, planning a big-name hunt. This one will include a run at Aldridge, per Stein.
There's no questioning Aldridge's potential fit in Houston. Power forward was statistically the Rockets' second-worst position last season, behind the 5 spot, according to 82games.com. Next season, with Dwight Howard presumably healthy, it projects as their absolute worst slot.
Aldridge is no stranger to playing beside a ball-dominant guard like James Harden, and Howard is the rim-protecting behemoth he's never enjoyed behind him. He's also coming off a campaign in which he drilled more three-pointers (37) than he did through his first eight seasons combined (24) while shooting a respectable 35.2 percent, so he can function as a stretch 4 in Houston's one-in, four-out offense.
But while the fit makes plenty of sense, the math behind making it happen does not.
"Cap space is not Houston's friend at the moment, but word is they will try to get in the mix for both Love and Aldridge as Rockets often do," Stein wrote ahead of the draft. "To that end also hearing that the Rockets are likely to try to trade Terrence Jones as part of today's draft proceedings."
Dumping Jones won't even get the Rockets kind-of-sort-of close to affording Aldridge. He's eligible for a max deal starting at 30 percent of next season's salary cap. Basketball-related income (BRI) typically drives that value down, but with the cap set to hit $67.1 million for 2015-16, Aldridge will command roughly $20.1 million.
Harden and Howard alone will combine to earn around $38.2 million. The Rockets would have to dump just about everyone else on their payroll, including Trevor Ariza, to create the necessary cap space for Aldridge.
Best-case scenario: They keep Donatas Motiejunas ($2.3 million) and Patrick Beverley, whose cap hold is $2.7 million until he signs a new deal in restricted free agency. Tack on eight minimum cap holds—one for every roster spot under the league minimum of 12—at $525,093 apiece, and the Rockets are at $47.4 million in commitments.
That would give them almost enough to offer Aldridge a max deal. But that's it. That's their team: Aldridge, Beverley, Harden, Howard, Motiejunas and maybe Josh Smith, and then a bunch of fillers.
And that's, um, yeah...
4. Dallas Mavericks
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League sources told Bleacher Report's Ric Bucher that the Dallas Mavericks are the "biggest threat" to poach Aldridge in free agency, and from a financial standpoint, that's totally believable.
Monta Ellis has opted out of his contract and will become a free agent. The Mavericks' plan, it seems, has always been to let him walk in this scenario, according to ESPN Dallas' Tim MacMahon.
If they renounce the rights to Tyson Chandler, Ellis and the rest of their free agents—except Dwight Powell—the Mavericks, as previously outlined, can sign Aldridge outright and still have around $10.6 million in cap room to burn.
By accounting for that money, they can try to hammer out deals with Chandler and Al-Farouq Aminu and then give chase to Aldridge, or they can simply reinvest in a new supporting cast.
Here's the thing: Tactical fit belies financial fit, and the tactical fit is iffy.
Dirk Nowitzki and Aldridge play the same position. Though Aldridge can line up at center as a stretch 5, rim protection isn't his bag. Opponents shot at below-average clips when being defended by him inside six feet of the basket last season, but he's not a premier paint-policer—at least not in the sense that Dallas can build a top-tier defense around him.
Bringing back Chandler or signing another rim protector to play beside Aldridge mitigates that disadvantage. But then the Mavericks are left to bring Nowitzki off the bench. How's that going to fly with the future Hall of Famer?
Pretty well, apparently.
"Yeah, I mean, whatever it takes," Nowitzki said of the possibility, per MacMahon. "I've always said that. My last two years I want to enjoy. I want to be a good team. I want to be on a winning team. Playoffs. Hopefully deep runs. So, yeah, anything I've got to do to help is obviously no question."
Yay! Bunnies and dandelions and stuff.
Still, there's something unsettling about the Mavericks finding Nowitzki's successor, so to speak, before he's even gone—especially when they'll need to replace both Ellis and Rajon Rondo.
3. New York Knicks
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The New York Knicks are among the teams on Aldridge's list of preferred destinations, according to Stein and his colleague Chris Broussard.
Hooray for curb appeal.
Unlike the Mavericks and Rockets, the Knicks needn't tinker with their books to offer Aldridge a contract. Carmelo Anthony, Jose Calderon, Cleanthony Early, Tim Hardaway Jr. and Kristaps Porzingis are the only guaranteed deals on the ledger.
Those five players represent just under $36 million in commitments. Toss in seven minimum cap holds and the Knicks, provided they renounce the rights to everyone else, are looking at $39.6 million in player salaries.
That's about $27.5 million in cap space—more than enough to get in a room with Aldridge.
Now, the Knicks' rebuild is still in its infancy. But the wide-open Eastern Conference is conducive to quick turnarounds, and Anthony is a top-10 talent still in the prime of his career.
Playing within the triangle offense also suits Aldridge. Team president Phil Jackson will tell you it doesn't demand mid-range jumpers, but it certainly allows for—and borderline encourages—them. And Aldridge led the league in mid-range attempts in the 2014-15 seasson with 788.
Familiarity with the three-ball, meanwhile, will come in handy if the Knicks are ever looking to get with the modern-day offensive program. Roughly 10 percent of Aldridge's career has been spent at center, so the Knicks have the option of trotting him out at the 5 and slotting Anthony at the 4 as well.
Latching onto a transitioning team coming off a 17-win season admittedly doesn't reek of savvy thinking for a veteran All-Star speeding toward his 30th birthday. But Aldridge's game will age well, and the East's landscape is begging for a contender to challenge the Cleveland Cavaliers.
New York, with Aldridge, could be that contender.
Soon.
2. Los Angeles Lakers
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Give it up for the Los Angeles Lakers. According to Stein, not only are they on Aldridge's free-agent wish list, but they've officially surpassed the Mavericks on said list.
Indeed, there are better teams out there. Much better teams. The Mavericks, in fact, are one of those teams. They won 29 more games than the Lakers last season, and their highest-paid player isn't a 36-year-old who has appeared in just 41 tilts over the last two seasons.
Still, the Lakers offer a fresh start. They just drafted D'Angelo Russell, a combo guard who is more apt to playing off the ball than Damian Lillard, and Bryant, by default, is ready to hand off the franchise's torch.
Even if he doesn't retire after next season, he is going to walk away soon, and at that point, Aldridge would take center stage for one of the NBA's most storied organizations. And regardless of what Bryant does after the 2015-16 crusade, the Lakers are positioned to be major players in 2016 free agency.
Nick Young and Russell are, as of now, the only two guaranteed contracts on their books beyond next season. Jordan Clarkson (qualifying offer), Julius Randle (team option) and Ryan Kelly (qualifying offer) are all candidates to return, but the salary cap will reach $89 million that summer, per Draft Express' Jonathan Givony.
There's a chance that, even with Aldridge, the Lakers could sling two max-contract offers to a free-agent pool that will include Batum, Mike Conley, Kevin Durant and Al Horford, among others.
In the interest of full disclosure, things could change. The Lakers have been linked to a DeMarcus Cousins trade many times over, courtesy of Wojnarowski. If he comes to town, that could put the kibosh on Aldridge's arrival.
Then again, the Lakers could try to build a package around Russell, Randle and contractual fodder after signing Aldridge. That would leave Aldridge to be the stretch 4 to Cousins' polarizing post presence.
Whatever the case, Los Angeles poses an interesting fit for Aldridge, granting him the opportunity to get in on the ground floor of what could be a quick and special rebuild.
1. San Antonio Spurs
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Because, you know, duh.
If Aldridge is looking to age well and compete for championships every year, there is no team better than the San Antonio Spurs. They'll know how to perfectly utilize his post game, shooting chops and passing acumen, and Gregg Popovich's minutes management will keep him humming well into his 50s. (OK, late-30s.)
This is why San Antonio is considered Aldridge's "most likely" destination, per Stein and Broussard. There are just one or two wrinkles that need to be ironed out first.
"Unless [Tim] Duncan and Manu [Ginobili] take insane discounts," wrote Grantland's Zach Lowe, "I don't see a way [San Antonio] can give [Aldridge] a max [without]: 1) Letting [Danny] Green walk; 2) Trading [Tiago] Splitter."
Fine, maybe it was three or four (or five) wrinkles.
The Spurs, as we broke down once before, can work it so they'll have just under $44 million committed to Kawhi Leonard's pre-contract cap hit, their first-round pick, Nikola Milutinov, Tony Parker, Boris Diaw, Patty Mills, Kyle Anderson, Splitter and minimum holds. (That total will drop to about $43.5 million if San Antonio stashes Milutinov overseas.)
Until Duncan and Ginobili sign a new deal, they'll be on the books for 150 percent of last season's salaries. The Spurs will need to sign them to new, discounted pacts before pursuing Aldridge.
But accounting for Aldridge's $20 million salary means the Spurs would have just over $3 million to split between Duncan and Ginobili. That's not enough. They can increase that number to $11 million by dumping Splitter without taking back any salary in return. That should be enough.
Several executives have told the San Antonio Express-News' Mike Monroe that they "believe the Spurs will offer Duncan a two-year contract that begins between $6 million and $7 million." That leaves between $4 million and $5 million for Ginobili. And that's doable.
All of this banks on the Spurs severing ties with Danny Green, an unrestricted free agent who should command more than $10 million annually on the open market. They own his Bird rights and can go over the salary cap to re-sign him, but his hit will be $7.6 million until they do.
Unloading Diaw's $7.5 million salary is a way to match that hold, so the Spurs can, in theory, still keep Green. But, either way, grabbing Aldridge will cost them two of Green, Diaw and Splitter.
Assuming that's a price the Spurs are willing to pay, they and Aldridge project as a match made in basketball paradise.
Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com unless otherwise cited. Salary information via Basketball Insiders and Larry Coon's CBA FAQ. Draft-pick commitments from RealGM.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @danfavale.
