Are New York Knicks Better off Trading or Keeping Their No. 4 Pick?

The 2015 NBA Draft is approaching fast, and with just days until commissioner Adam Silver takes the podium, what the New York Knicks plan to do with the fourth overall pick is anybody's guess.

Rumors have pointed in just about every direction over recent weeks, but Phil Jackson's first decision comes down to two options: Do the Knicks stand pat and keep their pick, or trade down and garner multiple assets in exchange for No. 4?

What seems like a simple decision for the Zen Master may not be at all. Coming out on the short end in the draft lottery, New York will almost certainly lose out on centers Karl-Anthony Towns and Jahlil Okafor, while point guard D'Angelo Russell could be taken third by the Philadelphia 76ers.

Jackson's not showing his cards, which makes sense considering the volatility of these early lottery picks. 

Win Now?

With Jackson at 69 years old and Carmelo Anthony entering the back end of his prime, the team would probably prefer to stack together as many assets as possible to speed up this rebuild. 

ESPN.com's Chad Ford reports that Jackson's asking price for the fourth pick is a "young veteran" in addition to a selection late in the lottery.

This has led to endless speculation over the last week, particularly regarding the Phoenix Suns and Eric Bledsoe. Until Monday, that was merely a result of Ford responding to a fan's suggestion in a chat. But Sean Deveney of Sporting News has reported that the two sides have actually discussed the framework of a deal that would ship Bledsoe and the 13th pick to New York for the fourth selection.

Falling back to 13th would be a steep drop for the Knicks, but acquiring a 25-year-old promising asset on a contract that runs through 2019—at a price tag that should be relatively modest after the salary cap spikes—is ideal.

Plenty of names have been linked to the Knicks such as Trey Lyles, according to Frank Isola of the New York Daily News. Cameron Payne and Frank Kaminsky have also been connected to the Knicks this month, per Ian Begley of ESPN.com and the New York Post's Marc Berman.

They are all players that could fall to the 10th spot or later. Dropping that far in the draft may not be the most surefire way to get better fast, but Jackson has potential targets in several ranges of the first round.

Any deal that nets the Knicks significant scoring help, so that Anthony can take on less of the load than in years past, could be worth it. Keep in mind that the team still has upwards of $25 million in cap space to spend next month in free agency, making a potential trade down a palatable move given the right parameters.

Not Exactly a Seller's Market

The idea of trading back has to do with this particular draft class, and the ambiguity between the Knicks' pick and those closer to No. 10. Players like Emmanuel Mudiay and Willie Cauley-Stein could make sense for the Knicks at No. 4 but some scenarios could see those players falling to No. 7 or later.

If New York could somehow dump the fourth pick on a team in exchange for a package including pick Nos. 6, 7 or 8—spots where they could potentially land their primary targets anyway—it would obviously make sense.

The problem is: other teams besides the Knicks are aware of this climate, too.

Andy Lyons/Getty Images

Teams in the hunt for Cauley-Stein, Mudiay, Kristaps Porzingis, Justise Winslow, Mario Hezonja and a few others won't pay a premium—if anything at all—simply to move up a few spots. If they miss out on one prospect, a similarly ranked one won't be too far off.

There are a few exceptions—for example, the Indiana Pacers could be desperate to jump higher in the order for Cauley-Stein, to fill a void that Roy Hibbert may leave this summer. Desperate to appease Kevin Durant in his walk year, the Oklahoma City Thunder may be interested in climbing the ranks to add a top-level talent. The Boston Celtics, strapped with pick Nos. 16, 28 and a slew of role players, could also be poised to make a move.

There will likely be some moves on the table, but Jackson will need to avoid dealing for dealing's sake. Armed with the franchise's highest draft choice in 30 years, overthinking on Thursday night could maroon the Knicks in an even worse position, leaving all of last season's suffering for naught.

Standing Pat

Understanding the trade value of their pick is the primary focus here, and it depends on what exactly Jackson is looking to accomplish.

If the plan is to settle back a few spots, maybe with the Denver Nuggets to No. 7 or Sacramento Kings to No. 6, it's probably a lost cause. Teams in the Knicks' range won't pony up the necessary assets to bump up just a few slots. 

The Knicks have targets in the late lottery, and they could trade all the way back there, but teams would also need to surrender a bona fide NBA talent in trade. We don't know when or how seriously that Bledsoe deal was discussed, and there haven't been any similar rumors popping up.

Which leaves us with the laziest option: hanging around at No. 4 and taking the best player left on the board.

If Sam Hinkie and Philly are out to shock the NBA world again and take Porzingis third, drafting Russell is almost a no-brainer for the Knicks. If not, they'll still be in an advantageous spot.

Mudiay, Cauley-Stein, Winslow and even Porzingis would have value at No. 4.

And with a roster as devoid of talent as the Knicks', they're really not in a position to be more picky than that.