Predicting Contract Dollars for the Top 10 Free Agents on the 2015 Market
Keep an umbrella close and the bank vault open. We're about to rain down copious amounts of cash on the top 10 NBA free agents of the 2015 class.
So much is going to change in the basketball world over the coming weeks and months. Players will switch jerseys. Teams will adopt new identities. Executives will either make or break the present and future of their franchises.
But even in this time of uncertainty, one thing is apparent: The players on this list are about go get paid. Each of them has essentially turned into a lottery ticket that's guaranteed to return an eight-figure (or higher) prize.
But how much money and how long of a deal will they get? Those are the questions we're out to answer.
First, we ranked each player based on past performance and future projections. Proven track records are key in establishing value, but so too are educated guesses about what lies ahead.
Then, we examined the different financial avenues in front of each player. And with the salary cap set to explode in the coming summers from the new TV money, there are plenty to explore. Some players will inevitably opt for short-term deals in order to re-enter a richer market sooner rather than later. But others will be better off grabbing all the money they can get right now for reasons we'll explain later.
With those parameters in place, it's time to load up the armored trucks and steer them toward the biggest cash cows on the 2015 free-agent market.
10. Paul Millsap, PF
1 of 10
FA Type: Unrestricted
2014-15 Notable Numbers: 16.7 points, 7.8 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 20.0 PER
Predicted Contract: Two years, $33 million (plus player option for 2017-18)
The two-year, $19 million pact Paul Millsap signed with the Atlanta Hawks in 2013 seemed criminally low at the time. And the value only increased over the life of the contract.
His box scores were routinely overstuffed like few others'. To wit, he was the only player to average at least 16 points, seven rebounds, three assists and 1.5 steals in each of the last two seasons. Only two other players even posted that stat line once during that stretch: Russell Westbrook and DeMarcus Cousins.
Millsap is clearly due for a hefty raise. At 30 years old, he might feel compelled to cash in on what could be the last major contract of his career. We don't have him doing that. But our projected contract gives him a substantial boost now and flexibility going forward.
The average $17 million salary nearly doubles Millsap's current pay and helps out the Hawks, who will need money to either re-sign or replace fellow unrestricted free agent DeMarre Carroll.
"If Atlanta goes over the cap, it can sign Millsap to a deal starting at only $16.6 million per season," wrote Grantland's Zach Lowe. "... If Millsap is cool taking that $16.6 million, the Hawks can...work their way to something like $12 million in space to use on Carroll—or a replacement—before re-signing Millsap."
By agreeing to a three-year deal with an option for the final season, Millsap has time to figure out how good the Hawks can be. On the surface, they just completed a great season with a franchise-record 60 wins. But the campaign played out more like a good one with a couple great months (31-2 in December and January, 29-20 outside of those months).
This gives Millsap two years (at least) to see if the Hawks can contend for a title. If they can't, he should have time to land one more significant contract.
9. Dwyane Wade, SG
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FA Type: Player Option
2014-15 Notable Numbers: 21.5 points, 4.8 assists, 47.0 field-goal percentage, 21.4 PER
Predicted Contract: Three years, $45 million
Dwyane Wade's value is as hard to pin down as any player in this class.
He's 33 years old, and his lack of a three-point shot (career 28.9 percent) will make it hard for his game to age gracefully. He is seemingly in a constant battle with his balky left knee, and he has missed 78 games over the past four seasons due to injury.
But when he makes it inside the lines, he's still a dominant force. This past season, he had the league's second-highest usage percentage (34.7) and the Eastern Conference's third-best scoring average.
The medical red flags surrounding him make it impossible to predict his future. And since that's such a critical part of building the right contract offer, it's tough to tell how he and the Miami Heat should proceed.
He doesn't sound interested in exercising his $16.1 million player option for next season. An associate has reportedly told people that Wade would like a three-year deal worth $20 million annually, according to Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald. But the Heat's initial offer may have come in at less than $10 million per year, via Bleacher Report's Ethan Skolnick.
That's a canyon-sized schism, and it's going to likely require concessions from both sides to close it. But this relationship feels like one worth saving, as Wade has never suited up for a different franchise and helped deliver three titles to South Beach.
Splitting the difference with an average annual salary of $15 million seems like the right call for both sides. Wade gets some long-term security his health history says he needs, and Miami keeps its franchise face without breaking the bank for someone on the backside of his career.
8. DeAndre Jordan, C
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FA Type: Unrestricted
2014-15 Notable Numbers: 15.0 rebounds, 11.5 points, 2.2 blocks, 21.0 PER
Predicted Contract: Five years, $109 million
One of the summer's biggest questions has now been answered. You're welcome.
Yes, DeAndre Jordan is worthy of a max contract. And yes, it needs to come from the Los Angeles Clippers.
Jordan has his obvious limitations. He's a horrific shooter from the foul line (career 41.7 percent, second worst in NBA history among players with 10,000-plus career minutes). And his offensive range extends only as far as he can dunk the basketball.
But he's a long, athletic, 6'11" monster in the middle. Freakish physical forces like this don't come around often, and Jordan fully understands how to capitalize on his natural gifts.
He's had the league's best field-goal percentage in each of the last three seasons. He has paced the NBA in rebounds during both of the last two. He has a gravitational pull as an explosive pick-and-roll screener, and he's an intimidating rim protector. Both of those traits not only make him a more effective player, they also elevate the guys around him.
Clippers coach-president of basketball operations Doc Rivers was asked if he'll have a max offer waiting for Jordan. "Yeah, I think I can say that," Rivers said, via ESPN.com's Arash Markazi.
With Chris Paul having cleared his 30th birthday and Blake Griffin entering his prime, L.A. should not be considering any subtractions. Even if the Clippers let Jordan walk, they wouldn't have the cap space to bring in a high-level replacement.
And Jordan won't find a better situation than his current one. Between the passing of Paul and Griffin and the three-point shooters around him, this team is built to maximize Jordan's offensive production.
7. Draymond Green, PF
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FA Type: Restricted
2014-15 Notable Numbers: 11.7 points, 8.2 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 16.4 PER
Predicted Contract: Four years, $69 million
If I'm Draymond Green's agent, my sales pitch starts and stops with the picture above.
The Golden State Warriors made several changes during the 2014-15 season, but none had a greater impact than moving the former second-round pick into the opening lineup. Since said changes helped the organization snap a 40-year championship drought, it's safe to say he's worth keeping.
Green is sure to interest any team with cap room.
The runner-up in both the Defensive Player of the Year and Most Improved Player award voting, Green consistently displayed tremendous versatility on both sides of the ball. His 5.32 defensive real plus-minus was the second highest in the league, via ESPN.com. Offensively, he was one of only three non-guards with at least 900 points, 250 assists and 100 three-pointers.
The Dubs outscored opponents by 16.5 points per 100 possessions when Green played. When he didn't, that figure fell to 2.5 points per 100 possessions. Only MVP Stephen Curry had a greater on-court impact on Golden State's net efficiency.
To make this long story short, Green isn't going anywhere. Warriors general manager Bob Myers said Dub Nation "shouldn't worry" about Green's free agency, via Bay Area News Group's Jeff Faraudo. Green was even more direct: "I'll be here," via Tim Kawakami of the San Jose Mercury News.
As a jack-of-all-trades, Green might not be worth max money to every team. But he is easily worth that price for how well he fits into the Warriors' puzzle.
6. Kevin Love, PF
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FA Type: Player Option
2014-15 Notable Numbers: 16.4 points, 9.7 rebounds, 36.7 three-point percentage, 18.8 PER
Predicted Contract: Five years, $100 million
In terms of sheer talent, this ranking is probably too low for Kevin Love.
Just one season ago, he was a stat-sheet assassin. In 2013-14, Love's final year with the Minnesota Timberwolves, he ranked fourth in scoring (26.1 points per game), third in rebounding (12.5) and third in player efficiency rating (26.9).
But none of those numbers can change what happened this season. The loss in volume was to be expected once Love joined forces with LeBron James and Kyrie Irving on the Cleveland Cavaliers. But Love's shooting percentages falling across the board was an unexpected development.
His defensive deficiencies left him sidelined for some critical fourth quarters. He also battled back problems and had his first postseason appearance ended abruptly by a dislocated shoulder.
The various rough patches he encountered could potentially push him out of Cleveland. But he could get a mountain of money by staying.
"Numerous league executives, though, say it's sort of a no-brainer: The Cavs will offer Love a max contract of five years and around $100 million," ESPN.com's Brian Windhorst wrote.
Since no one else can offer him that deal, we're obviously predicting he is staying.
If Love left, he'd be giving up more than just that vast amount of cash. He'd also leave behind the best player on the planet, plus a possible annual pass to the NBA Finals.
Love could stay in Cleveland on a shorter deal, but it would be a risky move. His (relative) statistical struggles could continue, his defensive woes might limit his involvement even more and the injury bug could bite him again.
5. Jimmy Butler, SG
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FA Type: Restricted
2014-15 Notable Numbers: 20.0 points, 5.8 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 21.3 PER
Predicted Contract: Three years, $50 million
If "Jimmy Buckets" wasn't such a dope nickname, we might be referring to two-way swingman Jimmy Butler as "The Gambler."
Butler bet on himself last October and decided his talents could earn him something more than the four-year, $44 million deal the Chicago Bulls reportedly offered, via K.C. Johnson of the Chicago Tribune. It looked like a bold move then—Butler only averaged 13.1 points on 39.7 percent shooting in 2013-14—but it's a no-brainer in hindsight.
The 25-year-old set personal bests nearly across the board this past season. He also made the first All-Star Game appearance of his career, took home the Most Improved Player award and earned his second consecutive All-Defensive second-team selection.
With his stock (and his ceiling) skyrocketing, Butler is reportedly ready to gamble again. Rather than accept the five-year, $90-million-plus contract offer surely coming from the Bulls, sources are under the impression he would prefer a "short-term, max money offer sheet," via Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski. The idea is that a shorter deal would help Butler tap into the growing money pool.
If he signed a five-year, max deal two years from now, he could collect as much as $190 million, per Wojnarowski. But he might not be able to reach the open market that quickly. If the Bulls tender the maximum qualifying offer, other clubs would have to offer a deal of "more than two seasons excluding options" according to RealGM's Christopher Reina.
A three-year, $50 million deal without options is probably the best that Butler can do. There's enough security in place where he's protected against injury or a sudden decline, but he doesn't have to wait an extra two years to dip into the expanding pot.
As soon as Butler decides on his next contract, the Bulls can match it to keep him around as long as possible.
4. Kawhi Leonard, SF
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FA Type: Restricted
2014-15 Notable Numbers: 16.5 points, 7.2 rebounds, 2.3 steals, 22.0 PER
Predicted Contract: Five years, $90 million
There are a number of intriguing, two-way wings in this free-agent crop. But none of them are capable of matching Kawhi Leonard's body of work.
Just 23 years old, Leonard has already been an NBA Finals MVP and a Defensive Player of the Year. Only two other players in league history have earned both honors: Hall of Famers Michael Jordan and Hakeem Olajuwon.
The terrifying thing about Leonard is that he's only getting started. With a loaded roster around him, the San Antonio Spurs have eased Leonard onto the big stage. This season was his first with double-digit field-goal attempts per game, and he only averaged 12.8 (tied for 52nd overall).
Leonard does just about everything well, and that's a big reason why he's a favorite of all-encompassing statistical categories. ESPN.com's real plus-minus ranked him as the fifth-most effective player this past season. Basketball-Reference.com had him seventh in box plus-minus.
If any team could have a shot at Leonard, they would take it. But the only thing missing from a five-year max contract to stay in San Antonio is Leonard's signature. And he seems likely to put pen to paper as soon as league rules allow. "It will be a short conversation," a source told CBS Sports' Ken Berger.
Everything from Leonard's selfless game, soft-spoken demeanor and polished skill set suggests he might have been born in silver and black. It's impossible to envision him away from the Spurs, and that idea isn't even something Alamo City fans will need to worry about for a long time.
3. LaMarcus Aldridge, PF
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FA Type: Unrestricted
2014-15 Notable Numbers: 23.4 points, 10.2 rebounds, 35.2 three-point percentage, 22.8 PER
Predicted Contract: One year, $20 million (plus player option for 2016-17)
Unlike some of the younger players listed earlier, there are no guessing games required with LaMarcus Aldridge. At least, not ones that involve his on-court impact.
He's a four-time All-Star and incredibly consistent contributor. He has averaged at least 21 points and eight rebounds in each of the last five seasons. No one else can make that claim. In fact, only three other players have posted those numbers multiple times over that stretch: Love, DeMarcus Cousins and Blake Griffin. And none of those three has done it more than twice.
Aldridge is a superbly gifted scorer. He can create his own shot on the low block, and he's one of the league's premier mid-range marksmen. This season, he even expanded his shooting range beyond the arc. He made more threes in 2014-15 (37) than he had in his first eight years combined (24).
He is undoubtedly a max-contract candidate. But we don't have him taking that route this summer.
He could obliterate his bank account by taking a one-year deal—with the added insurance of a player option—and diving headfirst into the 2016 free-agency waters.
A max deal this summer would net the nine-year veteran a maximum salary of 30 percent of the salary cap. But once he adds a 10th season to his resume, that percentage climbs to 35. And that 35 percent would obviously be coming from a much larger salary cap.
"Aldridge can top out at a five-year, $108.8 million contract this year or play out a single-year deal to get a five-year, $168 million contract next summer. Including the one-year maximum salary deal, that's a difference of more than $78 million dollars over the next six years," wrote RealGM's Daniel Leroux.
The money alone makes this an easy call for Aldridge. But it includes the added benefit of having a full season to weigh his options.
That might mean staying with the Portland Trail Blazers to see if they can put a championship run together. Or, it could involve taking his talents elsewhere (to the San Antonio Spurs or Dallas Mavericks, perhaps) and trying to get over the playoff hump he's been unable to clear in Portland.
2. Marc Gasol, C
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FA Type: Unrestricted
2014-15 Notable Numbers: 17.4 points, 7.8 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 21.7 PER
Predicted Contract: Five years, $109 million
Marc Gasol has never been the scorer nor rebounder that Aldridge is. But the former's two-way versatility edges him in front of the latter.
Gasol anchors his team at both ends of the floor. He's a crafty scorer near the basket, a comfortable shooter out to the elbow and a creative passer. And while he's not an above-the-rim player, the former Defensive Player of the Year uses his intelligence, instincts and positioning to effectively dismantle opposing offenses.
The Memphis Grizzlies understand everything that Gasol has to give, and they have constructed their roster accordingly. Gasol can work the high-low game with Zach Randolph or feast on pick-and-roll (or pick-and-pop) plays with Mike Conley. And Gasol's defensive gifts are only enhanced by the presence of perimeter stopper Tony Allen.
Memphis has won 50-plus games each of the last three seasons—and had 41 in the lockout-shortened 2011-12 campaign—so the formula is clearly working. Gasol has spent all seven of his NBA seasons with the Grizzlies and played high school ball in Memphis, so he has a rich history with the city.
If that sounds like we're hinting at a reunion between the two, that's because we are. Gasol has subtly done the same.
"The ties to this city—to the people of this city—go beyond basketball with me," Gasol said in May, via ESPN.com's Michael Wallace. "My whole family has been here since 2001."
While nothing has been set in stone, sources told Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski that Gasol "is expected to stay with the Grizzlies."
A full max contract that pays Gasol an average annual salary of more than $20 million past his 35th birthday seems like the right manner for him to stay.
1. LeBron James, SF
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FA Type: Player Option
2014-15 Notable Numbers: 25.3 points, 7.4 assists, 6.0 rebounds, 25.9 PER
Predicted Contract: One year, $23 million (plus player option for 2016-17)
If there's a ranking of current NBA players and LeBron James is eligible for it, there's a pretty good chance you'll find him at the No. 1 spot.
Think about it. After losing Game 5 of the 2015 NBA Finals, James said his confidence remained high "because I'm the best player in the world," via Matt Wilhalme of the Los Angeles Times.
Normally, a quote like that would reek of controversy. But the main problem people had with it wasn't the validity of the statement. It was that he felt compelled to tell everyone something they already knew.
King James looks as comfortable in his hoops throne as ever. There is no questioning his place at the top of this league after the playoff run he just had: 30.1 points, 11.3 rebounds and 8.5 assists per game.
"With all due respect to Kevin Durant and Anthony Davis, James is still the apex predator of the NBA," wrote ESPN Insider Amin Elhassan.
This free-agency adventure for James won't be nearly as exciting as his last one.
No one expects him to leave the Cleveland Cavaliers for a second time, and all signs point to him taking another one-year deal with a player option. By putting himself in 2016 free agency, James could boost his 2016-17 salary from roughly $24 million to more than $30 million, via ESPN.com's Brian Windhorst.
James is the best in the business, and he deserves to be paid accordingly. The fact that a one-year deal keeps pressure on the Cavs to continue their improvement only adds to its appeal.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com.
