Breaking Down Early Los Angeles Dodgers Trade-Deadline Rumors

The Los Angeles Dodgers sit atop the National League West, but their slim lead over the San Francisco Giants is just 2.5 games. And with a pitching staff decimated by injuries and a starting lineup still partially in flux, the Dodgers cannot rest comfortably and assume they will be able to coast to the playoffs.

Instead, expect the front office to be active.

At the very least, GM Farhan Zaidi would be wise to explore adding major league-quality depth to the rotation. Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke are as good a top two as any team can boast, but presumptive third starter Brett Anderson has a long injury history, and current fourth starter Mike Bolsinger has only 100 career innings in the big leagues.

The offense suffers from an embarrassment of riches. The May trade of Juan Uribe opened the door for Justin Turner and (presumably) Hector Olivera to get regular at-bats, and Carl Crawford’s eventual return from the DL will force either him or Andre Ethier to the bench.

It would be no surprise to see the team trade a starting-caliber hitter just to alleviate some of the roster pressure.

Andre Ethier

Jae C. Hong/Associated Press

Ethier is the most likely Dodger to be traded from the big league roster.

He has had a good season—137 wRC+ in 207 plate appearances—and his contract, while onerous, is cheaper than Carl Crawford’s. Additionally, his arm strength enables him to play both corner outfield spots, while Crawford is limited to left.

It is difficult to say exactly what Ethier’s trade value is. Reports from the offseason suggested that the Dodgers were willing to pay “about half” his contract, and there were no takers.

Two months of new data should not really have changed anyone’s mind about what kind of player he is or can be, but front offices have been known to get desperate around the trade deadline—especially if injuries decimate a contender’s outfield.

Cole Hamels

Gene J. Puskar/Associated Press

Hamels has been at the center of rumors all season, and the Dodgers have been linked to the lefty since the winter meetings.

He is obviously an excellent pitcher, and the Dodgers have an obvious need in the rotation. Additionally, he would not be a rental—he is under contract through either 2018 or 2019—which is a factor that would undoubtedly appeal to the Dodgers front office.

They are more likely to be willing to give up a major asset for a pitcher who will not be a free agent after this coming season, and Hamels is really the only ace on the market who fits that criteria.

While previous rumors have suggested that Philadelphia wanted all three young Dodger stars (Corey Seager, Joc Pederson, and Julio Urias), according to HardballTalk's Drew Silva, one has to assume that the Phillies are now asking for a more reasonable return.

Johnny Cueto

Nam Y. Huh/Associated Press

Cueto is the pitcher on the market with the most attractive mixture of talent and availability.

ESPN’s Mark Saxon mentioned him in a recent column detailing who the Dodgers might pursue, and he definitely makes sense: As a rental, he is unlikely to cost as much as Hamels would, and the Reds are 13 games behind St. Louis in the NL Central and therefore virtually out of contention.

The Dodgers demonstrated caution last year by refusing to mortgage the future for a shot at a playoff run and would be wise to do so again. However, Cueto could potentially be had for a prospect a tier below Seager and Urias, and the season-ending injuries to Hyun-Jin Ryu and Brandon McCarthy make the righty an attractive option.

Jordan Zimmermann

Alex Brandon/Associated Press

Both Zimmermann and David Price were mentioned in Saxon's column as well, but they should be addressed here despite the fact that they are unlikely to be moved (a reality that Saxon does mention in his piece).

Zimmermann is an excellent pitcher—his career 3.30 FIP speaks for itself—but his 2014 appears to have been a slight outlier. Both his FIP and xFIP last year were significantly lower than any mark he had put up previously, and his numbers this season more closely resemble those of his previous seasons than those of 2014.

Additionally, he is unlikely to be moved at the deadline. He is a free agent after this year, but the Nationals rightfully consider themselves contenders and are therefore loath to trade one of their best players. And with Stephen Strasburg both injured and having a down year, Washington seems unwilling to decimate their rotation.

David Price

John Minchillo/Associated Press

Price is in an extraordinarily similar position to that of Zimmermann: His team fancies itself a contender that is built to win now, and he is a free agent after 2015.

For similar reasons, then, the Tigers are unlikely to trade their star lefty. Dealing him would bring back a decent return, but not one they would likely consider fair value and or that the Dodgers would be willing to pay.

He is also the anchor of a rotation that is not anywhere close to as dominant as it has been in the past.

The departures of Max Scherzer and Doug Fister and the decline of Justin Verlander have meant that Detroit has leaned on Price to carry their pitching staff, and they can ill afford to lose a player from a position that just two years ago was considered supremely deep.