5 Keys to Potent San Francisco 49ers Ground Game in 2015
For the first time since the 2005 season, Frank Gore will not lead the San Francisco 49ers’ rushing attack. The franchise leader in career rushing yards will be plying his trade in Indianapolis this upcoming season.
You can see why a team wouldn’t want to give a deal to a 32-year old running back; the list of backs of that age or older who have contributed over the last decade can be counted on one hand.
You have Mike Anderson, Corey Dillon, Warrick Dunn, Ricky Williams and Fred Jackson, and that’s it. While 49ers fans will wish Gore the best of luck in his new digs, it’s probably best to move on one year too soon rather than one year too late.
His departure leaves a huge hole in San Francisco’s running game. Since 2005, Gore’s 2,442 attempts represent 56 percent of all 49ers carries, while his 11,073 yards represent 58 percent of San Francisco’s rushing yards. That’s a massive amount of production to try to replace.
Of course, Gore’s loss is far from the least expected blow the 49ers have suffered this offseason, and might have almost been forgotten considering the blows the defense has suffered in the months since Gore left. The 49ers were preparing for this loss last season, drafting Carlos Hyde in the second round with the intent of making him the featured back once Gore left. That time is now.
What will it take for Hyde and the 49ers to have a successful rushing attack in 2015? Let’s take a look at the five biggest key points the 49ers will need to sort out in order to maintain the top-five rushing attack they’ve had since 2012.
Can Carlos Hyde Handle the Load?
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Here’s a no-brainer if I’ve ever heard one: The biggest key to the 49ers' running game in 2015 is for their new starting running back to play well.
It may not be the most critical analysis ever, but Carlos Hyde's continued development is the biggest factor in the ground game's continued success. He’s got very large shoes to fill, but there’s certainly every potential for him to fill them.
Hyde only averaged 4.01 yards per carry last season, which is 48th-most among players with at least 50 carries last season. More to the point, it’s less than Gore’s 4.34 yards per carry, despite Gore getting a larger workload. Hyde did face a slightly tougher set of situations—his average carry came with 8.51 yards to go, as opposed to Gore’s 8.56 yards to go—but it’s clear that Hyde wasn’t as effective as Gore was in 2014.
“Not as effective as Frank Gore” isn’t exactly a bad review, however, and Hyde had a very solid season running the football.
His highlight game is probably the road game against Seattle, where he carried the ball six times for 55 yards before leaving in the third quarter with season-ending injuries to his knee and back. He also had a seven-carry, 50-yard day against Dallas and a four-carry, 36-yard day against New Orleans that particularly stand out.
His biggest strength is his ability to keep moving after contact. Pro Football Focus charted him at 2.8 yards per contact per attempt, tied for fifth-best in the league last year. His 25 missed tackles is run-of-the-mill, but it came on only 83 attempts. That’s a broken or avoided tackle every 3.32 carries, third-best in the league behind only Marshawn Lynch and Roy Helu.
By comparison, Frank Gore only broke or avoided a tackle once every 8.23 carries last season. You just don’t bring Hyde down easily.
While aspects of his game certainly need to be improved, most notably his pass protection, Hyde showed a solid base to build upon as he enters his sophomore season.
Sharing the Load
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While Gore was one of 14 backs to have more than half of his team’s carries last season, per Sporting Charts, it’s more likely that the 49ers will use a committee approach this season.
After all, moving Hyde up from 80-odd carries toward the 300-carry mark would be a massive uptick. He should get more carries than any other 49ers back, but I’d imagine somewhere between 100 and 150 carries will go to a pair of other players. Their success, too, will go a long way in determining how good the 49ers are at running the ball in 2015.
One of the better free agents the 49ers added this offseason was Reggie Bush. While Bush had a bit of an injury-plagued 2014, his addition still makes him instantly one of the more dynamic players on the roster, with a skill set pretty much unmatched by the other backs.
While he’ll be of more use on passing downs, as he’s already developing a rapport with Colin Kaepernick, according to CSNBayArea.com, he has averaged 4.4 yards per carry over the last three years as a running back. At age 30, he is not someone I would look to to carry the load for the running game, but he has a creativity and explosive ability the other backs lack.
Kendall Hunter is back, too, and that’s a good thing. In the Frank Gore era, Hunter actually has the second-most carries and yards, with 1,202 yards on 262 attempts. Hunter missed all of last season with a torn ACL, but looks recovered at this point.
In 2011 and 2012, Hunter looked poised to become a very significant part of the 49ers’ run game, though that’s never really developed any more than that, thanks to injuries. If he can bounce back to his full pre-injury form, his career 4.6 yards per carry will definitely add a punch to the rushing attack.
My hunch is that Hyde will handle most first- and second-down running attempts, with Bush coming in on passing downs and Hunter serving as the primary backup to both players, rather than a straight depth chart going from Hyde down to Hunter. If Bush and Hunter can provide value, that will take some of the pressure off Hyde and make the transition from Gore that much easier.
Replacing Mike Iupati
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For all of Mike Iupati’s struggles in the passing game over the past few seasons, almost no guard in football was better at providing a powerful run-blocking force. He finished second among guards in run blocking in 2014, according to Pro Football Focus, and only once has finished out of the top five. Coupled with Joe Staley on the left side, there was not a better run-blocking duo in football.
The player most likely to replace him will be Brandon Thomas, last year’s third-round pick who reshirted his rookie season with a torn ACL. He’s not the same kind of guard Iupati is; he’s not a power guy who’s just going to maul his way forward. As the 49ers seem to be transitioning to a zone-blocking scheme under new line coach Chris Foerster, Thomas’ lack of power isn’t necessarily a negative, but it’s certainly a change.
Thomas is an athletic and efficient player, able to move to the second level or pull with light feet and good form. If his college production translates to the pros, he should be an NFL-starting-quality player, but he’s not the same as Iupati. That bodes well for pass protection, but will he be able to carve out the lanes for the running backs?
With no NFL snaps, all we can really do is wait and see. Iupati’s departure leaves a massive hole in run protection.
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Vary the Look
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Fullback Bruce Miller has a theory why the 49ers rushing totals dropped in 2014.
In early December last year, CSNBayArea.com quoted his diagnosis:
"Defenses adjust and we've seen that as we've tried to do some similar things, maybe even being a little bit repetitive. Giving them the same looks. That's what we've tried to get away from -- doing the same things. Because we've found ourselves struggling and stalling.”
With the motions and things like that, we tried to get reactions from the defense and figure out what we’re playing against and getting man-zone keys. That’s what a lot of that’s for. We’re not really looking to trick people. Now, we have caused confusion with defenses by adjusting, moving and shifting.
Yeah, I think that’s gone, creating the confusion. We're not exactly getting the reaction we expect from defenses. I think that’s caused some error on our part.
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It did feel like the 49ers’ began to lack some of the more complicated formations and offensive line movement on their runs, especially as injuries piled up on the offensive line last season.
When the 49ers were making multiple playoff runs, people were hailing it as “the most multiple run game people have seen in a very long time,” to quote Yahoo Sports' Doug Farrar, but they appeared to get more and more predictable at the end of last season.
I think a rookie center in Marcus Martin, a journeyman right tackle in Jonathan Martin and plenty of snaps from a backup guard in Joe Looney had something to do with the lack of complicated offensive strategies. The 49ers started seven different offensive line combinations in 2014, and that just kills any continuity an O-line can have.
They need to get back to the sort of thing that made them successful. That’s not to say they need to continue the power-blocking scheme that Greg Roman used. It’s more the philosophy of tricking the defense with looks it wasn't expecting. Not only did the game plan become simpler as injuries piled up, but years of tape also gave opposing defenses ideas how to defend Roman’s system.
They need to get back to a philosophy that causes defenses to not be able to predict the upcoming play call. A shift to a new blocking scheme could be very helpful in that regard.
Unleash the Deep Ball
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It’s difficult to run the ball when opposing defenses can creep eight men into the box with regularity.
The 49ers’ passing game didn’t threaten anyone last season, with Colin Kaepernick’s 7.0 yards per attempt the lowest total of his career. With their one historic deep threat, Vernon Davis, having a career-worst season, defenses could key in on the run more, helping stop it cold.
If the addition of Torrey Smith and Kaepernick’s off-field work with Kurt Warner in Arizona spark a passing revolution, however, you could see defenses having to respect the deep ball. If sneaking a safety into the box allows Smith to get open downfield, the 49ers could produce some explosive plays in 2015.
Assuming the 49ers have success with the deep ball, opposing defenses will have to respect that. Players such as Dez Bryant, DeSean Jackson and Julio Jones do more than just make big plays downfield; they force defenses to keep players back to avoid giving up a huge play. That opens up room underneath for the short passing game and, yes, the running game.
If the 49ers' passing game sparks, teams will have to pay attention to it for the first time in a few years. The 49ers offense has been one-dimensional for most of the Jim Harbaugh era, and teams have been able to key in on the ground game. It hasn’t helped much, but it’s made finding space tougher. Open up the offense and you’ll find those running lanes growing.
I don’t think Torrey Smith will put up huge numbers in 2015, but his presence alone could spark increased numbers for everyone else on offense, including the running game.
Stats are courtesy of Pro Football Focus, Pro-Football-Reference.com and Sporting Charts, unless noted otherwise.
Bryan Knowles is a Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report, covering the San Francisco 49ers. Follow him @BryKno on Twitter.
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