NBA Free Agency 2015: The Biggest Dominos to Fall During the Offseason
The preferred document of NBA free agency is not the shopping list. It is the flow chart, defined by quick if-then pivots, fallback options and mid-chaos freelancing.
Every team with cash to spend wants the same top players, so the ones that don't land their first choice—this year, we're probably talking about Memphis Grizzlies center Marc Gasol or Portland Trail Blazers power forward LaMarcus Aldridge—must be ready to adjust their plans when they miss out.
And whenever a big name agrees to a new contract, the market itself changes, recalibrating the values of dozens of other players based on what, say, Danny Green gets as an unrestricted free agent.
This summer, teams face the added uncertainty of a rising salary cap, the details of which DratfExpress' Jonathan Givony shared. A contract signed on July 1 that takes up 15 percent of the $67.1 million cap in 2015-16 will occupy only 12 percent of a team's projected $81.6 million payroll in 2016-17. With the cap set to hit $108 million in 2017-18, that original 15 percent dips all the way to 9 percent.
With that in mind, will teams overpay this offseason? Which ones? By how much? On whom?
Every dollar spent and every contract signed this summer will change the free-agency landscape, forcing clubs to reassess their priorities on the fly.
A few key free agents will shake things up more than others. They're the big dominos (listed here in no particular order), and as they topple over, teams around the league will see their plans fall into place or fall apart.
Marc Gasol, C, Memphis Grizzlies
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Status: Unrestricted
2014-15 Stats: 17.4 points, 7.8 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 1.6 blocks, 21.7 PER
The best center in the league commands immense power in free agency—as he should.
If Marc Gasol were to knock on the service entrance door to Madison Square Garden, he wouldn't gain entry immediately. But only because Phil Jackson, James Dolan and every other key figure in the New York Knicks organization would need a minute or two to lay down the red carpet before letting Gasol through.
Everyone would love to pay Gasol max cash. He's in his prime, a dominant defensive player and a legitimate offensive focal point.
Though free agency isn't about shopping lists, Gasol would be the top item on everybody's if it were.
The Knicks aren't shelling out cash for Greg Monroe or DeMarre Carroll or hiring a new janitor until they're certain Gasol doesn't want their money. The story is similar for just about every other club with enough cap space for the Memphis Grizzlies big man.
Unfortunately for hopeful suitors around the league, Gasol is most likely to stay in Memphis. Marc Stein of ESPN.com shared the details back in mid-May:
"Most rival teams favor Memphis to ultimately win the Gasol sweepstakes because A) Gasol's ties to the city are legitimately deep and B) he's the unquestioned starting center on the NBA's "I Just Want To Win" team. Which is another way of saying that few league observers can picture him leaving when there isn't an obvious landing spot that immediately positions Gasol to do more winning than he's currently doing with the Grizz—unless Tim Duncan retires to create a gaping hole in the San Antonio frontcourt.
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Once Gasol officially signs with the Grizzlies—or at least makes it blatantly clear he's not leaving—you'll see a ton of disappointed teams dust off their backup plans.
Kevin Love, PF, Cleveland Cavaliers
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Status: Player Option (Unrestricted)
2014-15 Stats: 16.4 points, 9.7 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 36.7 3P%, 18.8 PER
The Cleveland Cavaliers' shorthanded Finals run hasn't diminished Kevin Love's value—not to general manager David Griffin, anyway.
"This new identity has worked for us because of the matchups we’ve had," Griffin told Grantland's Zach Lowe. "But we were the best team in the league with the Big Three healthy. We want to be that juggernaut again. We want to be a more talented version of this group of gritty overachievers."
The problem for Griffin and the Cavs, though, is that Love controls his own fate this summer. Thanks to an opt-out clause in his contract, the injured power forward can explore unrestricted free agency if he so desires.
Marginalized all year as a third option, Love might want to regain top-dog status someplace else.
Maybe being the centerpiece of the Los Angeles Lakers' next era appeals to him. Maybe he sees himself fitting perfectly into Brad Stevens' offense with the Boston Celtics.
Or maybe he'll relish the chance at perennial title contention alongside LeBron James and stay in Cleveland. Even then, the means of his return could set trends across the league.
If Love simply opts in to his final year, fine. But if he opts out, that could mean another one-year deal with an option—hi there, 2016 free agency!—or a massive multiyear agreement that puts the Cavaliers deep into the luxury tax.
Depending on what options the market presents to Love and what that market says he's worth, much could change for teams and players around the league.
Whatever he decides, Love will be a key figure this summer.
LaMarcus Aldridge, PF, Portland Trail Blazers
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Status: Unrestricted
2014-15 Stats: 23.4 points, 10.2 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 22.8 PER
Nobody will have a more complicated summer than LaMarcus Aldridge, who'll juggle loyalty to his current team, the allure of his Texas roots and the unprecedented quirks of his contract situation.
Here's Daniel Leroux of Sporting News with the tricky details on that last part: "Aldridge can top out at a five-year, $108.8 million contract this year or play out a single-year deal to get a five-year, $168 million contract next summer. Including the one-year maximum salary deal, that’s a difference of more than $78 million dollars over the next six years."
The spike has to do with Aldridge's service time; he's spent nine years in the league, which entitles him to 30 percent of the cap on a max deal. Players with 10 years of experience can sign for 35 percent.
Waiting to sign a long deal is always a gamble, but it's one that seems to make more sense for Aldridge than anyone else.
Should the Texas native opt for a new start with the San Antonio Spurs or Dallas Mavericks, he'd have to decide between a long-term deal or a short one with the promise of a multiyear pact after the cap rises. If he chooses the latter course, he could make nearly as much money in four years as the Blazers could pay him with a maximum-salary five-year contract this summer.
The finances are complicated, as are the emotions involved.
Aldridge's whole career has been in Portland, and just last year, he told the Oregonian's Joe Freeman that he wanted to be remembered as the best Blazer ever. But nine seasons without advancing past the second round of the playoffs has him thinking about a change of address, according to Bleacher Report's Ric Bucher.
If he ends up in San Antonio, it would probably mean some key figures from one of the league's stablest cores—free agents Danny Green, Marco Belinelli and perhaps even Manu Ginobili and Tim Duncan—could be either gone or asked to take pay cuts.
And if Aldridge goes to Dallas, is that the end of Monta Ellis? What about Tyson Chandler?
As was the case with Gasol, expect a flurry of action after Aldridge settles on a destination.
DeAndre Jordan, C, Los Angeles Clippers
4 of 7
Status: Unrestricted
2014-15 Stats: 11.5 points, 15.0 rebounds, 2.2 blocks, 71.0 FG%
If DeAndre Jordan leaves the Los Angeles Clippers, it'll usher in the age of Spencer Hawes: Starting Center in L.A., which would effectively end the Clips' days as true contenders.
The Clippers can offer Jordan a fifth year and more money, but the same rising-cap issues we've mentioned repeatedly should make Jordan think about a shorter deal. That doesn't necessarily mean ditching the Clippers is more likely, but it diminishes the value of that fifth year.
If Jordan isn't signing the long-term max, the Clippers lose some leverage. That's a problem for them because they don't have the cap flexibility to sign anyone as his replacement. Viewed strictly in terms of his importance to the Clippers, Jordan is less a domino than a wrecking ball—one that could reduce their championship foundation to rubble.
If Jordan wants to play elsewhere, the teams that would otherwise have settled for Monroe, Omer Asik, Robin Lopez or even Roy Hibbert (player option) could take a run at him.
A sign-and-trade with the Mavericks could send Tyson Chandler to the Clippers along with some of Dallas' unwanted contracts (think Raymond Felton), but the Mavs could just renounce Chandler's rights and sign Jordan outright.
Maybe Dallas would swing that kind of deal as a favor to Chandler, but the Mavericks don't necessarily need to cooperate in a way that helps the Clippers.
Jordan is going to be another of this summer's key wait-and-see guys. As long as he's available, teams with high hopes will hold off on signing second-tier bigs.
The Restricted Crew
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There are loads of restricted free agents on this year's market, but the key three—Draymond Green, Jimmy Butler and Kawhi Leonard—appear together here for a couple of reasons.
First, the analysis governing their situations is identical: All are integral to their teams' future success, and all are virtual locks to remain right where they are—regardless of the offer sheets coming in.
Second, and relatedly, the utter shock of one of them moving would flip free agency upside down.
These are far-fetched, basically unfathomable scenarios, but just imagine what it would mean for the Spurs if they didn't match Leonard's offer sheet. Would it be because they knew they could sign Gasol and Aldridge? Or would it be because they had some kind of big-picture plan to ink Kevin Durant, LeBron James and the ghost of Wilt Chamberlain in 2016?
Failing to match an offer sheet to Green might indicate the Golden State Warriors had eyes on Durant in a year. Same for the Chicago Bulls and Butler.
It feels silly to even consider the possibility of these three restricted free agents changing teams this summer. However, because the mere possibility of one of them moving would create such franchise-altering upheaval, it's worth mentioning.
Dominos that seem rubber-cemented to the table are still dominos, after all.
Dwyane Wade, SG, Miami Heat
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Status: Unrestricted (Player Option)
2014-15 Stats: 21.5 points, 3.5 rebounds, 4.8 assists, 1.2 steals, 21.4 PER
This one's a bit of a surprise.
Dwyane Wade passed up millions of extra dollars last summer to give the Miami Heat a shot to remain in contention, but things didn't quite work out. Now, he and the only team he's ever played for are reportedly far apart on the terms of his next contract, according to the Miami Herald's Barry Jackson.
Wade can opt out this summer, and it makes sense for him to do so if the Heat are willing to meet him in the middle during contract negotiations.
We should assume both parties will work things out, but if they can't, it's difficult to overstate the effect it would have on free agency.
Any contender with a need for a highly productive shooting guard would come calling, and Wade could basically reshape the league's hierarchy of contenders if he signs someplace at a discount. Or, maybe some intrepid team looking to make a splash would take a chance on him having another couple of years as a viable franchise cornerstone.
If Wade ends up on the market, it changes things for other guards. No team is going to have a conversation with Monta Ellis, Lou Williams or Wesley Matthews without talking to Wade first.
Khris Middleton, SG, Milwaukee Bucks
7 of 7
Status: Restricted
2014-15 Stats: 13.4 points, 4.4 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 40.7 3P%
Khris Middleton is going to be one of this summer's key contract barometers.
If he garners a max offer, we'll know teams are serious about locking up as many long-term deals as possible before the cap rises. Typically, it's franchises that push for shorter contracts and the flexibility they offer, while players seek the security of multiyear agreements.
Middleton is a fine player. Advanced metrics such as ESPN.com's real plus-minus love him, and a 23-year-old wing who can hit over 40 percent of his threes and is capable of defending multiple positions is very much in fashion right now. But he's not the only guy with those skills, and max contracts used to be reserved for scarcer commodities.
The Bucks just shipped out Ersan Ilyasova for two players they'll likely waive, saving a few million bucks in the process. If we assume that cash is earmarked for Middleton, it's a sign the Bucks are anticipating a robust market for his services.
Milwaukee is in control because it can match any offer, but if it takes $60 million over four years to do that, as a league executive suggested might be the case to Sean Deveney of Sporting News, the league will know the going rate for young free agents on the wing. Other deals will follow once the Middleton baseline is set.
Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference unless otherwise noted.
