Strong Matt Cain Return Could Make Giants the Favorites in Tight NL West

The West Coast X-factor could be on its way.

With the National League West riddled with injuries and disappointment, no team has identified itself as a surefire favorite through the first 10 weeks of the season.

The defending division champion Los Angeles Dodgers have had their rotation and chunks of their lineup decimated by injury, as have the defending World Series champion San Francisco Giants. Meanwhile, the San Diego Padres have played well below expectations.

For those reasons, only five games separate the three teams. And all of them are waiting for something to help them pull away from the rest.

Matt Cain just may be that something for the San Francisco Giants.

The right-hander made his first rehab start of the year Wednesday, throwing 55 pitches for Double-A Richmond en route to a return to the rotation that will likely come in July.

His fastball reached 94 mph and he sat in the 91 mph range, which is significant given that he is coming off of elbow surgery to remove bone chips and a flexor strain in his forearm that has kept him off the field all season.

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Cain topped out at 94 mph for Richmond, Bochy said. Next start will be at Sacramento on Monday.

— Andrew Baggarly (@extrabaggs) June 10, 2015"

The last time we saw Cain in meaningful games, he was nothing near the one-time ace that earned a six-year, $127.5 million contract extension before the 2012 season. In the year leading up to that extension and the one immediately following it, Cain was at his most dominant as a professional pitcher.

He had a 2.84 ERA, 3.26 strikeout-to-walk ratio and 3.16 FIP in 441 innings. He was worth 8.8 wins above replacement, according to FanGraphs. Only 12 other major league pitchers were worth more in those two seasons, and that dozen has combined to win 11 Cy Youngs and two MVP Awards.

With Cain entering his age-28 season in 2013, the contract seemed like a win for the Giants. They figured Cain could sustain his front-line success for at least half of that extension, but they could not have been more wrong.

Cain plummeted in the following two seasons, going 10-17 with a 4.06 ERA, 2.62 strikeout-to-walk ratio and 4.15 FIP. He was worth a 1.7 WAR over 45 starts and was forced to cut 2014 short in order to have the elbow surgery, though he will not use that as an excuse for his struggles.

“I know what I'm capable of,” Cain said in April, when the Giants visited Los Angeles. “And I know that I wasn't adapting quickly enough [before].” 

Cain was on his way back for 2015, feeling rejuvenated and fresh after averaging 209 innings a season from 2006 to 2013. Then, just as the season was about to begin, Cain hit the disabled list again with the forearm strain.

Now, nearly two months later, Cain is back to feeling as close to normal as possible.

“I don’t know if it’ll be normal again,” Cain told Andrew Baggarly of San Jose Mercury News on Wednesday. “I think those years have passed. But it’s probably as close to normal as I can be.”

That could be good news for the Dodgers and Padres as Cain expects to be back in the rotation next month, likely before the All-Star break. Then again, Cain hasn’t felt truly healthy or rested for a while. Once he is built up enough to pitch in the big leagues, Cain could be a force again, despite what he might be saying right now.

“I started to really feel like I could throw the ball to both sides of the plate,” Cain said in Los Angeles. “I felt like my breaking pitches were moving a lot. I was getting that confidence back. That was why [the forearm injury] was pretty frustrating. But on the other side, at least I could see it was there and how much the surgery had already helped.”

Eric Risberg/Associated Press

If Cain is even close to what he was in 2011 and 2012, he could have a bigger impact than any free agent or trade acquisition the Dodgers and Padres have made or will make for this year.

That kind of performance could also upgrade the Giants rotation to the best in the division. That would be a huge advantage over the other clubs, which are currently battling injuries and ineffectiveness in their own starting staffs.

The Dodgers still hold the top spot in the division as of the start of Friday’s games, and they just got back dynamo right fielder Yasiel Puig. That is big for them.

However, when Hunter Pence is healthy, the 2015 Giants probably have a better lineup than any of the ones that won the World Series in the previous five years.

As the past has shown us, though, pitching wins the NL West.

That makes Cain’s effectiveness increasingly important. If he can pitch even within his former self’s shadow, it could be enough to boost the Giants over their division rivals, breaking their odd-year postseason curse and returning Cain to prominence.

All quotes, unless otherwise specified, have been acquired firsthand by Anthony Witrado. Follow Anthony on Twitter @awitrado and talk baseball here.