Ranking the Most Intriguing Free Agents on the 2015 NBA Market
There's a certain amount of intrigue with every NBA free-agent signing.
The biggest fish have to live up to their gargantuan salaries, past statistics and high-profile statures. The less-heralded names bring the hope of outperforming their relatively modest financial commitments.
Every addition is fascinating in its own way, but the levels of intrigue are far from being equally dispersed. We're breaking down the seven players sure to pique the most curiosity among front offices.
An abstract term like "intriguing" carries a fluid definition. As such, not every player on this list appears for the same reason.
But there are some common threads linking them all. Each comes equipped with a considerable amount of upside. None would be considered proven commodities, but there's a chance for all of them to grow into something far more substantial than what they are now. That potential is what makes these players equal parts attractive and risky.
In order to rank these players based on their intrigue, we're weighing a couple of different factors. Past performance helps project future production. Teams want to have some sort of idea about the type of player they're getting. We're also examining how these players can grow. Few traits are more desirable than a towering ceiling, so we have to assess each player's opportunity for improvement.
Now that those parameters are in place, let's get to ranking.
7. K.J. McDaniels, SG, Houston Rockets
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While there's so much uncertainty surrounding rookie K.J. McDaniels, it's clear he doesn't lack two things: athleticism and confidence.
When the 22-year-old saw the floor, he displayed the former on a near-nightly basis. When he wasn't wrecking the rim with a powerful flush, he was volleyball-spiking opponents' shots into the stands.
As for that confidence, McDaniels wasted no time displaying that. Rather than snagging some long-term security with a four-year pact, the former second-round pick opted for a one-year deal that fast-tracked his path to free agency.
Projected as a first-round talent, McDaniels didn't come off the board until the 32nd pick. That slide helped motivate his decision to race for the open market sooner rather than later.
"We think K.J. is going to be a good player, and it came down to doing a one-year deal and letting the market determine his value," McDaniels' agent, Mark Bartelstein, told Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski.
With jetpack hops and a towering 6'11 ¼" wingspan, per DraftExpress, McDaniels has plenty to like as a physical specimen. But as an NBA wing, his biggest selling point is potential—not production.
In 52 games with the Philadelphia 76ers, McDaniels was a quantity-over-quality contributor. He averaged 9.2 points in 25.4 minutes per game but shot just 39.9 percent from the field and 29.3 percent from three. After a deadline deal sent him to the Houston Rockets, he couldn't secure a rotation spot, and a nondisplaced right elbow fracture prematurely ended his season.
Young high-flyers who defend like McDaniels does will always generate some interest among NBA front offices. But with offensive limitations that need to be worked out and such a short track record, McDaniels will be far more of a hopeful investment than a reliable addition. The Rockets may want to hold onto this young asset, but the Sixers should make a strong run at their former selection.
6. Ed Davis, PF, Los Angeles Lakers
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There's something undeniably appealing about Los Angeles Lakers free-agent big man Ed Davis.
Not many players can match his combination of size (6'10", 240 lbs), length (7'0" wingspan, per DraftExpress) and effortless athleticism. And he's put those tools to good use, averaging 12.1 points, 10.6 rebounds and 1.7 blocks per 36 minutes during his five-year career.
The 26-year-old seems to have found his NBA niche. He's a grinder at heart who understands that working hard is a skill. Defensively, he's an active, mobile presence in the paint. At the opposite end, he focuses on finding easy opportunities near the basket (career-high 60.1 percent shooting this season).
But the former lottery pick has still left a lot of hoop heads wanting more.
He has started only 82 of his 354 career games. On the clearly rebuilding Lakers, he averaged fewer minutes than the 33-year-old Carlos Boozer (23.3 to 23.8). And while Davis is a solid shot-blocker, he hasn't been the most effective defender around the rim (53.9 field-goal percentage against at the rim, 68th among the 83 defenders who faced at least five such shots per game).
Davis holds a $1.1 million player option for next season, but he's planning to decline it for a longer, richer contract.
"I'm hoping for a long-term deal," Davis said, via Mark Medina of the Los Angeles Daily News. "I'd love to return here. I know this will turn around eventually."
Still, it will be interesting to see how the market breaks for Davis. It's not hard to imagine some team presenting him with the full-time starting gig he has so far been unable to land. But it's also pretty easy to envision him back in a reserve role next season and perhaps for the remainder of his basketball journey.
The most likely scenario entails the Lakers keeping Davis around as their first big off the bench.
5. Bismack Biyombo, C, Charlotte Hornets
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Teams in need of offensive production from the center spot won't look too hard at Charlotte Hornets restricted free agent Bismack Biyombo.
He doesn't have post moves or shooting range. He has just 24 total assists over the past two seasons combined. And while his hands are improving, they're still not where they need to be for a catch-and-dunk specialist.
But if those shortcomings don't scare suitors off, he has an interesting mix of interior talents to offer.
He's quickly becoming a force on the glass, snaring at least 11.8 rebounds per 36 minutes in each of the past two seasons. His rim protection is the perfect counterpunch against dribble penetration. He erases a ton of shots (career 1.6 blocks in only 21.0 minutes per game), and he changes even more. This season, he held opponents to 3.6 field-goal percentage points below their average.
An explosive athlete with arguably more speed than any other NBA center, he remains a defensive force even when he's pulled away from the paint.
"Biyombo is a proven rim protector on defense, with the wheels to defend stretchier big men on the perimeter—a rare combination," wrote Grantland's Zach Lowe.
If Biyombo improves in the passing game (both as a quarterback and receiver), he could become a pick-and-roll juggernaut. If not, he'll be a one-way contributor who forces his team to play four-on-five at the offensive end.
That's a gamble worth taking if the price is right. But this could be a fairly forgettable signing in the near future if his game doesn't develop. If the Boston Celtics don't solve their interior void during the draft, they should target Biyombo as a low-cost anchor of their defense.
4. DeMarre Carroll, SF, Atlanta Hawks
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In the context of this list, Atlanta Hawks free-agent forward DeMarre Carroll might be the least mysterious of the lot. The 28-year-old's game can be broken down into a single word: relentless.
"He's always been a guy who just wants to go out there and hoop, ball, play hard, get offensive rebounds, a one-man, full-court press," Hawks sharpshooter Kyle Korver said, per Paul Newberry of the Associated Press. "That's been his mantra his whole life."
Carroll might occasionally get outplayed inside the lines, but he never gets outworked. Aptly dubbed the "Junkyard Dog," he's a tenacious defender, energetic rebounder and supreme hustler.
The "Skills" section of his resume has also grown exponentially since signing with Atlanta in 2013. He entered the 2013-14 campaign with 27 career three-point makes on 95 attempts (28.4 percent). Over the past two seasons, he buried 217 of his 572 long-range looks (37.9 percent).
His skill set seems complementary in nature, but that label didn't exactly fit this postseason. Not when Carroll became the first Hawk since Hall of Famer Dominique Wilkins to have six straight 20-plus-point outbursts in the playoffs.
But Carroll could carry more question marks into free agency than his stat sheet would suggest. Teams will have to figure out whether he experienced internal growth with the Hawks—he owned a below-average 12.3 player efficiency rating before joining them—or if Atlanta's system was primarily responsible for his improvement.
At worst, he looks like a trustworthy three-and-D wing. But he could prove pretty costly—executives told Bleacher Report's Howard Beck that Carroll "could command $9-12 million a year on the open market"—if that's the biggest role he can fill.
The Hawks should be prepared to bite that bullet. Carroll is a tremendous fit for their system.
3. Greg Monroe, PF, Detroit Pistons
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Detroit Pistons free-agent forward Greg Monroe is overloaded with traditional talents.
He's a beast on the low block and a prolific passer out of the post. He can burn a defense for not sending help his way as a scorer then punish it for collapsing around him with pinpoint deliveries to perimeter shooters.
There aren't many players capable of replicating his production. He's one of only two players to average at least 15 points, nine rebounds and two assists in each of the last four seasons. Three-time All-Star Kevin Love is the other.
If Monroe is obviously gifted and wildly productive, how does he fit our bill as intriguing? It's pretty simple, actually. His strengths aren't featured as much in today's NBA, and his weaknesses are glaring in this pace-and-space game.
"Modern-day bigs need to stretch defenses or rank as premier rim protectors. Monroe—who allowed opponents to shoot 60.1 percent inside six feet of the hoop—is neither," wrote Bleacher Report's Dan Favale.
Monroe needs help defensively. He lacks both the athleticism to erase shots above the rim and the quickness to chase shooters off the perimeter. At the opposite end, Monroe can cause congestion in the paint. He's just a 34.7 percent shooter outside of three feet for his career.
His production won't be easy for executives to ignore. And at 25 years old, it's entirely possible that his best days are ahead of him. But it will be fascinating to see how the modern league treats his throwback skills on the open market.
The Pistons won't be able to properly space the floor with Monroe. But the New Orleans Pelicans could, and they need the Louisiana native's interior scoring to keep defenses from crowding Anthony Davis.
2. Khris Middleton, SG/SF, Milwaukee Bucks
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If teams are perimeter shopping this summer, they should try to pry Khris Middleton away from the Milwaukee Bucks. No matter what type of wing they're after, the former second-round pick can probably fit the bill.
Versatility is the name of his game. He's logged at least 20 percent of his career minutes at the 2, 3 and 4 spots. He can play off the ball as a spot-up shooter, create scoring chances off the dribble or bully his way to buckets out of post-up plays.
If clubs want shooting, he's a high-volume, high-efficiency marksman. He's one of only six players to make at least 100 triples and shoot 40 percent from long range both this season and last. If teams are looking for perimeter defense, Middleton can provide that, too. His 4.10 defensive real plus-minus ranked eighth overall and third among wings, via ESPN.com.
"He's the kind of player you could slot seamlessly next to a star of almost any shape and size to tremendous effect," wrote Bleacher Report's Ian Levy. "There are just a handful of players who can do what Middleton does, and therefore, there are just one or two teams in the league for whom his contributions would be redundant."
But the intrigue with Middleton is simple. Is he an uber-valuable glue guy, or might he be something more? His post-All-Star production hinted at the latter (16.8 points and 3.1 assists per game), but his career numbers see him as the former (11.8 points and 2.0 assists per game).
He's a good investment either way though sources told Basketball Insiders' Steve Kyler that Milwaukee has "every intention of matching" any offer Middleton receives in restricted free agency. But there's a big difference between being a complementary Swiss army knife and a multifaceted star.
No matter what his future holds, it's sure to include Milwaukee as his long-term home.
1. Tobias Harris, SF, Orlando Magic
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Tobias Harris' foray into free agency was always destined to be fascinating.
Some see the scoring forward as grossly underrated. He's versatile enough to fill either forward spot, capable of finding his own shots and improving as a three-point threat. He was one of only six players who averaged at least 17 points, six boards and one three-pointer per game. The other five are all perennial All-Stars: LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, Carmelo Anthony and Chris Bosh.
But others aren't convinced that Harris was more than the best offensive option on a lottery-bound Orlando Magic team. His 16.7 PER ranked 31st out of the 35 players who put up 17-plus points per game. And his 8.8 assist percentage was 34th among that same group.
"The jury is out on whether Tobias Harris is a potential star or merely a stats-swallowing vulture who does productive things because someone on the Orlando Magic physically has to," wrote Bleacher Report's Michael Pina.
The Magic hold the right of first refusal on any offer Harris finds in restricted free agency. But they also recently hired head coach Scott Skiles, who once buried Harris on the bench when both were with the Milwaukee Bucks. Skiles says he has a "great relationship" with Harris, via Fox Sports Florida's Ken Hornack, but their rocky history only makes Harris' upcoming journey even more interesting.
There's no denying his skill, and at 22 years old, time likes Harris' chances to keep getting better. But he needs to develop in virtually every area outside of scoring.
With differing opinions on both his basement and ceiling, there isn't another free agent more intriguing than Harris. The Magic will probably bring him back, but the desperate-for-scoring New York Knicks could put a massive offer on the table for the Long Island native.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com. Salary information obtained via Basketball Insiders.
