5 Potential Trap Games on New England Patriots' 2015 Schedule
Diving specifically into game plans and opponent-specific schematics is a little impulsive at this stage of the offseason. However, with a general idea of the New England Patriots' personnel strengths and weaknesses, it's possible to at least see which teams could represent tricky matchups for the defending champs.
Of course, though the Patriots have typically held the talent edge over most opponents, it's not a given that long-standing truth holds through into 2015.
Besides the numerous free-agent defections, Tom Brady's four-game suspension throws a monkey wrench that could last beyond the first month. No one doubts the 37-year-old's talent and drive, but it's not unreasonable to expect some rust as the meticulous quarterback faces decreased training camp reps and a four-week isolation away from team facilities.
Thus, the idea of a trap game is more prevalent than ever against a talented but slightly vulnerable Patriots squad. Surveying New England's regular-season schedule, here are five games that stand out as potentially precarious pitfalls.
5. Week 7, Home vs. New York Jets
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If Brady serves the entirety of his four-game suspension, this would be his first home game back. Given the widespread support behind the "No Brady, No Banner" movement, hanging the Super Bowl XLIX banner and seeing their hero return should have the fans in Gillette Stadium in quite a frenzy that afternoon.
Nevertheless, this remains an extremely dangerous Gang Green defense that should give even a motivated Patriots team trouble.
According to Pro-Football-Reference.com, the Pats averaged a meager 4.8 yards per play in two meetings against the New York Jets last year, their second-lowest total against any opponent in 2014. Todd Bowles may not harbor the same ire for One Patriot Place that Rex Ryan did, but he remains a brilliant defensive mind with significantly more defensive talent at his disposal than Ryan enjoyed last year.
It's also fair to question how the Patriots' corners might match up on the perimeter (ah, familiar problems are back). The Jets' top duo of Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker are 6'4" and 6'3", respectively, while second-round burner Devin Smith is 6'0".
New York has quietly assembled an impressive combination of size and speed on the perimeter, and while there are questions as to whether the quarterback can take advantage, this is a problem the Patriots will likely face throughout the 2015 season.
Of all the trap games on this list, the Pats figure to be the heaviest favorites in this contest. New England has taken eight of its past 10 home games against the Jets, and with Brady at the helm, they'll hold the big edge at quarterback. Still, the Jets stand a strong chance of diffusing those hopes for big fireworks in Brady's potential home debut.
4. Week 17, Away vs. Miami Dolphins
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Always a difficult venue for the Patriots, New England caught a bit of a break by having its South Florida trip fall in December this year. During their Week 1 loss at Sun Life Stadium last season, the Pats appeared to tire in the humidity, allowing 23 unanswered second-half points.
If things fall into place for Miami, the Dolphins should be in playoff contention at this point. The front office has gone all-in this offseason; according to Over the Cap, the Fins rank second in total cash spending for 2015 and have the largest cash-to-cap ratio in the league. In other words, Miami has pushed much of its impending salary-cap woes into the future for a realistic shot at its first postseason berth since 2008.
Like the other AFC East teams, the Dolphins figure to challenge the Pats most in the trenches, with a terrifying weak-side defensive line duo of Ndamukong Suh and Cameron Wake.
Ryan Tannehill has also been a completely different quarterback against the Patriots in the friendly South Beach confines. Per Pro-Football-Reference.com, Tannehill has a 91.2 passer rating in three career home games against New England, versus his dreadful 67.0 rating in three games at Foxborough.
It's hard to imagine that the Patriots won't have something to play for in Week 17, even if it's just playoff seeding. This is also their third road game in a four-week stretch, a tough closing month brought on by Gillette Stadium hosting the NHL's Winter Classic.
Depending on how much time Brady misses, New England could need this win to stave off the Denver Broncos, Indianapolis Colts or another AFC challenger for a first-round bye.
3. Week 11, Home vs. Buffalo Bills
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On the surface, a Monday night game against Rex Ryan might not seem like a prime letdown opportunity. However, with a road trip to Denver looming just six days later, there's a chance the Pats could get caught overlooking Buffalo at home.
Brady and the offense certainly won't overlook the Bills defense, which finished second in Football Outsiders' opponent-adjusted DVOA metric last season behind the Seattle Seahawks. The Bills will return nine of 11 starters from that unit, with only safety Da'Norris Searcy and part-time starter Brandon Spikes leaving in free agency.
Interestingly, though the Bills have been a top-four DVOA defense each of the past two seasons, the Pats have had little trouble moving the ball.
Excluding last year's Week 17 game, where New England rested its starters, the Patriots have averaged 31.3 points per game and 403 yards in the other three games, all victories. For reference, the Pats overall averaged 28.5 points and 375 yards per regular-season game the past two seasons.
With a shoddy quarterback situation and a power-run scheme that doesn't appear to maximize LeSean McCoy's talents, Buffalo's defense will bear the onus of the pressure in that game.
However, that unit is good enough to keep the Bills in any game, and Ryan has always geared his teams up for the Patriots. Perhaps that extra kick is enough to give New England a more significant scare than what the Bills have mustered in recent seasons.
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2. Week 10, Away vs. New York Giants
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No, this has nothing to do with the recent Super Bowl ghosts, though the Patriots will surely have some unpleasant memories against the G-Men.
According to Pro-Football-Reference.com, last year's 6-10 New York Giants were an unfortunate group with a point differential that would imply a Pythagorean win expectancy of 7.5 wins. As Grantland's Bill Barnwell recently illustrated, that 1.5-win difference was the second-largest negative differential last year behind only the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who finished with 2.5 fewer expected wins.
And even though a roughly .500 team doesn't sound particularly intimidating, the Giants present some matchup issues that could keep the game close, particularly at MetLife Stadium.
Odell Beckham Jr. is an impossible cover for any defense, and the resources teams will devote to cover Beckham should open the passing lanes crucial to Ben McAdoo's West Coast timing-based offense. Reuben Randle, Larry Donnell and old friend Shane Vereen should be among the beneficiaries of the spacing in New York's system.
Defensively, the Giants are rebuilding the same fearsome pass rush that wrecked two Super Bowls for the Patriots. Big Blue finished second in sack percentage last season, per TeamRankings.com, and could benefit if edge-rushers like Damontre Moore and rookie Owa Odighizuwa can supplement the top trio of Jason Pierre-Paul, Robert Ayers and Johnathan Hankins.
This is also the final game before the Patriots enter a four-game stretch against teams that all had winning records in 2014. The Giants haven't made the postseason since winning Super Bowl XLVI, but this contest could be closer than last season's record disparity would imply.
1. Week 6, Away vs. Indianapolis Colts
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Having worked themselves into a tizzy over Deflategate, Patriots fans would likely scoff at this being a trap game. After all, in four meetings against Andrew Luck, New England has won by an average of 29 points per game. The Pats figure to be supremely motivated against their whistleblowers, much like they were in 2007 against Eric Mangini's New York Jets.
However, that Jets squad was a 4-12 pushover that never really harbored a realistic shot against a 16-0 Patriots. Conversely, Indianapolis is a legitimate Super Bowl contender, even if it has fared poorly on the biggest stages the past three seasons. The Luck-era Colts don't have the pedigree of the Patriots, but their myriad short-term veteran signings this offseason have indicated an all-in mentality for the 2015 season.
Look, this is not to say that the gap between the Pats and Colts is gone. Under Luck, Indy has never finished in the top 10 in Football Outsiders' overall DVOA rankings, while the Pats have never finished outside the top five in that span. No team is really 29 points better than any other over the long haul, but it's fair to say that a noticeable gap has existed.
It's also reasonable to assert that said gap should be smaller. From there, circumstances could very well tilt the October meeting in the Colts' favor.
If Brady does serve his four-game suspension, perhaps the notoriously finicky quarterback experiences some timing issues in his first game back. Considering the slow September starts the Patriots offense has experienced the past two seasons, that hypothesis doesn't feel far-fetched.
The more relevant meeting should come in January, but the regular-season meeting should still represent a nice early-season barometer. Unfortunately for New England, it's not hard to envision the Patriots scrambling to find their bearings early in the season, potentially opening the door for the Colts to claim a cathartic win.
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