Predicting the Top 10 Trade Candidates and Destinations of 2015 NBA Offseason
The time for NBA roster reshuffling is almost here.
The June 25 draft is sitting just around the corner, and the free-agent market will open shortly after that. This is one of the only times of the year when a lot of trade chatter actually produces transactions.
Team needs are about to change. Rotations can get crowded by draft picks and free-agency additions. Contracts can become more burdensome as franchises figure out how much money they need to retain their current players or target new ones.
In other words, the trade block will soon be congested.
The 10 players on this list appear for different reasons, but they all have at least one thing in common: the possibility of being dealt this summer. We have broken down the present and future situations for all 10, then ranked each one on the likelihood of getting traded.
And, since these players will need to land somewhere, we have identified where they might wind up.
10. Ricky Rubio, PG, Minnesota Timberwolves
1 of 10
The Minnesota Timberwolves believe in Ricky Rubio. They spent the fifth overall pick to acquire him in 2009 and doubled down on that commitment with a four-year, $55 million contract extension in October.
But Rubio has lost significant time to injury in three of his four NBA seasons. His shooting woes continue plaguing his production (career 36.7 field-goal percentage). And there are dark clouds of uncertainty surrounding his future with the franchise.
ESPN Insider Chad Ford recently reported that Rubio's "camp" has been asking for a trade. Ford later wrote that the Wolves "might be willing" to let Rubio go in the right deal.
This might be a ton of smoke and nothing more. Rubio told Jon Krawczynski of the Associated Press that he hopes to help right the ship in Minnesota. With all of the athleticism the young Timberpups have, Rubio seems like the perfect conductor of this high-flying orchestra.
But if there's fire beneath this smoke and Rubio's potential never translates to cleaner production, Minnesota could be giving a ton of money to a guy who can't shoot and doesn't want to be there. The Wolves, who own the No. 1 pick, should at least gauge the trade market, particularly if they're sold on D'Angelo Russell or Emmanuel Mudiay as a long-term solution at point guard.
Who might want a shot at Rubio? The Houston Rockets desperately need a playmaker alongside James Harden, and they could help stock Sota's shelves with more prospects. The Sacramento Kings need to upgrade their point guard ranks, and they could send over a shooter like 2014 lottery pick Nik Stauskas to help the Wolves spread the floor.
9. Tiago Splitter, C, San Antonio Spurs
2 of 10
After following their 2014 title with a first-round exit this year, the San Antonio Spurs are preparing themselves for change.
"The team will probably look considerably different than it looks this year because we have so many free agents and we want to re-tool a little bit," Spurs coach Gregg Popovich said, via Dan McCarney of the San Antonio Express-News.
The roster alterations could be dramatic. For starters, the Spurs have several key players heading to unrestricted free agency, including Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili and Danny Green. In addition, San Antonio has been connected with marquee free agents Marc Gasol, via Sporting News' Sean Deveney, and LaMarcus Aldridge, via ESPN.com's Marc Stein.
The Spurs need to shed salary before planning any big-game hunts. Tiago Splitter, who has two years and $16.7 million left on his deal, could be the odd man out, according to Stein.
Splitter is solid. He sets great screens, defends at a high level and holds his own on the glass. His mobility and soft hands make him a reliable pick-and-roll partner. And, like any good Spur, he's capable of moving the basketball.
He's not someone who should prevent San Antonio from chasing a premier player. But he's well worth a look from a team like the Boston Celtics, who need a two-way presence on the interior. With a boatload of incoming picks in Boston's future, the Celtics should have more than enough to land Splitter if they can't nab a bigger name.
8. Taj Gibson, PF, Chicago Bulls
3 of 10
The Chicago Bulls frontcourt seemed a little too crowded this season. The hiring of new coach Fred Hoiberg might exacerbate that issue.
Hoiberg values offensive spacing, even if it comes at the expense of size. Not only does that likely increase the playing time of stretch forward Nikola Mirotic, it also opens the possibility of Doug McDermott stealing some minutes at the 4. With Pau Gasol, Joakim Noah and Taj Gibson all in the mix as well, there are too many bodies and not enough playing time to go around.
The Bulls were already shopping Gibson this past season, according to Deveney. With small ball perhaps on the Windy City's horizon, Chicago is now "active in exploring deals" for Gibson and/or Noah, via Sheridan Hoops' Joe Kotoch.
Gibson seems the more likely trade candidate than Noah. Gibson just had the second-best scoring (10.3 points per game) and top shooting campaign (50.2 field-goal percentage) of his career. Noah, who seemed bothered all year by offseason knee surgery, just set a career-low with a 15.3 player efficiency rating.
Rather than selling low on Noah, whose passing could be an asset in Hoiberg's offense, the Bulls should capitalize on Gibson's rising stock. The Toronto Raptors need a major upgrade at power forward, and Gibson could offer the consistent two-way play they're missing on the interior.
Would Terrence Ross and another prospect or pick interest Chicago? If Mike Dunleavy departs in free agency, it just might.
7. Nikola Pekovic, C, Minnesota Timberwolves
4 of 10
It's tough to tell where the Timberwolves will turn with the No. 1 pick. Just about everyone else seems to value Karl-Anthony Towns' two-way upside over Jahlil Okafor's offensive post game—except for Flip Saunders, according to Ford.
Considering Saunders is the team's coach, president of basketball operations and part owner, his opinion is kind of a big deal.
But it doesn't really matter who makes this call. Whether Towns or Okafor is bound for the Gopher State, both would make incumbent center Nikola Pekovic redundant.
Pekovic is already having a hard enough time warding off sophomore center Gorgui Dieng, who is a far better rim protector and more versatile scorer. Pekovic is having even more trouble staying healthy. He has never missed fewer than 17 games in any of his five NBA seasons, and he made just 31 appearances during this one before ultimately undergoing surgery on his right Achilles tendon.
At 29 years old, Pekovic may have exhausted his potential already. He's still productive when he plays (career 18.3 points per 36 minutes), but he's also pricey. He is slated to collect $35.8 million over the next three seasons.
In terms of Minnesota's likely willingness to trade him, Pekovic should be ranked higher. But it's hard to imagine he has the most robust market of suitors.
Finding a new home for him isn't easy, but the Milwaukee Bucks might entertain the idea. They need a consistent scorer and could put four long, active defenders around him. They also have a cheap, young nucleus, so they might be able to stomach Pekovic's salary for the next couple years.
6. Jeremy Lamb, SG, Oklahoma City Thunder
5 of 10
In 2012, Jeremy Lamb was a key piece of the package the Oklahoma City Thunder received from the Houston Rockets for James Harden. The bearded baller wasn't the dominant force then that he is now, but his future looked excessively bright.
To a lesser extent, so did Lamb's. The 12th overall pick that same year, he had the right size, length and athleticism to pass the eye test. His shooting form looked smooth enough for NBADraft.net to give him a Reggie Miller comparison.
Fast forward to the present, and that comparison sounds "Mean Tweets" level laughable. Miller averaged 24.6 points per game during his third NBA season. Lamb averaged 13.5 minutes in his.
"I just want an opportunity," Lamb said during his exit interview, via Darnell Mayberry of the Oklahoman. "I'm focused on getting better. If the opportunity is here or it's somewhere else, I can't really focus on that."
It's possible he'll have that opportunity under new Thunder coach Billy Donovan. But given the rising price of athletic, three-point shooting wings, every team should be calling OKC and trying to steal one at a bargain rate.
Lamb is a silky-smooth scorer, and he has the physical tools to make an impact defensively. The New Orleans Pelicans should attempt an all-out pursuit of him. They need depth and more spot-up shooters to pair with rapidly emerging superstar Anthony Davis.
New Pelicans coach Alvin Gentry has one of the sharpest offensive minds in the game. He would find a way to maximize Lamb's production.
5. Joe Johnson, SG, Brooklyn Nets
6 of 10
The Brooklyn Nets need to trim payroll. Badly.
Over the past two seasons, they have spent more than $295 million in salaries and luxury taxes, via Tim Bontemps of the New York Post. Spending one more year above the tax line would result in being hit with the dreaded repeater tax.
Considering Brooklyn's high-dollar payroll has only produced one playoff series victory in the lass three years, it's no surprise that the Nets want to get below the tax line. The problem is their priciest players, Joe Johnson and Deron Williams, are still on the books. Plus, the team doesn't want to lose Brook Lopez and Thaddeus Young to free agency.
The Nets have to move one of their expensive guards. Williams is probably the preferred choice, since he's coming off the worst shooting season of his career (38.7 percent) and set to rake in the most money going forward ($43.3 million over the next two years). But the things that worry Brooklyn with Williams are the same ones likely to keep suitors away.
Johnson isn't cheap by any stretch, but he's a short-term commitment on an expiring contract. The 33-year-old's production is declining, but he was still one of only nine players to average at least 14 points, 4.5 rebounds, 3.5 assists and 1.5 three-pointers.
He's a relatively reliable long-range shooter (career 37.1 three-point percentage), a confident late-game closer and a savvy veteran. If the Charlotte Hornets want to rejoin the playoff race, they could use all three of those traits. As an added bonus, they might be able to dump the polarizing Lance Stephenson, a Brooklyn native, in the process.
4. Roy Hibbert, C, Indiana Pacers
7 of 10
The Indiana Pacers are ready to play a smaller, faster, up-and-down game.
And, yes, they do realize those are things you don't do with plodding 7'2" center Roy Hibbert.
"We'll have to see how it all plays out and what the roster ultimately looks like, but there's a possibility that Roy's role will be diminished, if we're trying to play faster and trying to play smaller," Pacers coach Frank Vogel said, via Candace Buckner of the Indianapolis Star.
A reduced role probably won't push Hibbert out of the Circle City. Not when he can exercise his $15.5 million player option by staying.
But Hibbert should be one of the most widely shopped players this summer. The Pacers are thinking about the offensive end, and that's never been the best area of the career 46.4 percent shooter.
Hibbert isn't the most versatile player around. But his biggest strength is one that plays a pivotal role in today's game: rim protection. He's a stone wall at the basket. Among the 83 players who faced at least five shots at the rim per game, only three allowed a lower conversion rate than Hibbert's 42.6 percent. He's also finished three of the last four seasons ranked among the top five in blocks.
With so many offenses spreading out a defense and then aggressively attacking the basket, defenses need protection on the back end. The Celtics, who had the eighth-worst defense inside the restricted area, could use some insurance from Hibbert.
His price tag shouldn't be high, but his impact on this improving defense could be significant.
3. Lance Stephenson, SG, Charlotte Hornets
8 of 10
Inking Lance Stephenson to a three-year, $27 million contract last summer was always a risky move for the Hornets. But Born Ready's best-case scenario would have addressed several of Charlotte's biggest issues.
The Hornets needed a secondary playmaker to help ease the burden on Kemba Walker. They wanted a steady shooter who could keep defenses from packing the paint against Walker and Al Jefferson. They had to have a perimeter player who defended at a high level and drilled the long ball consistently.
Stephenson had the talent to do all of the above, but he didn't really wind up doing any of them. He had Charlotte's third-highest assist percentage (25.4) but also its worst turnover percentage (17.6). He also had the worst three-point percentage ever with at least 100 attempts (17.1), via Stein. The Hornets were better on both ends of the floor when he didn't play.
"I can't find a group that plays well when he's out there," Hornets coach Steve Clifford said, via Rick Bonnell of the Charlotte Observer.
Charlotte started dangling Stephenson on the trade market in December, sources told Stein. The Hornets need to keep those conversations going.
He doesn't look like the right fit for them, but he's far from being a lost cause. He only turns 25 in September, and his contract is fairly cap friendly ($9.4 million team option in 2016-17).
The Miami Heat should keep an eye on him. They need depth, regardless of what happens with Goran Dragic, Luol Deng and Dwyane Wade possibly all hitting free agency. This is a good chance to buy low on a player who has yet to approach his ceiling.
2. Ty Lawson, PG, Denver Nuggets
9 of 10
The Denver Nuggets look ready for a reset.
After racing to 57 wins in 2012-13, they have won just 66 total games in the two seasons since. Their offense hasn't had a focal point since Carmelo Anthony forced his way out in 2011, and their defense was the fifth-worst in the league this past season.
This team doesn't seem to have an identity. And it might require trading away leading scorer and table-setter Ty Lawson to create one.
"As good of a piece as Lawson is to build around, his lack of confidence in the direction of the organization has become somewhat problematic," wrote Basketball Insiders' Steve Kyler. "Lawson represents the Nuggets’ best trade asset and it seems both parties are at least open to exploring Lawson’s trade value."
That value should be pretty high.
Lawson has averaged at least 15 points and eight assists in each of the last two seasons. Chris Paul and John Wall are the only other players who have hit those marks. Lawson is only 27, boasts good career shooting percentages (46.6 from the field, 36.9 from deep) and will cost just $25.6 million for the next two seasons.
Any team in need of a point guard should have him at or near the top of its wish list. But the Utah Jazz might be the best landing spot. They went 19-10 and had the top-ranked defense after the All-Star break. They look ready to make the leap, but they had the least efficient point guard group this season, via HoopsStats.com.
With picks and prospects to help Denver's rebuild, Utah could accelerate its own with Lawson and take some heat off young floor generals Trey Burke and Dante Exum.
1. David Lee, PF, Golden State Warriors
10 of 10
Former All-Star David Lee has plenty of fans in the Bay Area. But setting sentiment aside, this should be a no-brainer decision for the Golden State Warriors. And Lee knows it.
"I think they tried to trade me the last two years, didn't they?" Lee told NBA.com's Scott Howard-Cooper. "That's nothing new. But once again, what's kind of predicted and what ends up happening is not always the same thing. We'll just see what happens."
Or we can look at what already happened.
Lee lost his starting spot and eventually rotation place over the course of Golden State's 67-win, historically dominant season. During the Dubs' 16 playoff games, Lee has sat out seven of them and logged just 68 total minutes.
Falling into a deep reserve role wouldn't be so bad if Lee wasn't the highest-paid player on the team. He's scheduled to make $15.4 million next season, when Klay Thompson's $70 million contract kicks in along with the probable max deal Draymond Green lands as a restricted free agent this summer.
The Warriors need to unload Lee's salary, and he needs a change of scenery. An 18.2 points-per-game scorer just one season ago, he has to find a place to showcase his talent before hitting the open market in 2016.
Lee can score, rebound and pass better than most power forwards in the league. His experience and consistent production could help an up-and-comer take the next step. The Hornets might want that if they aren't comfortable banking on the development of Cody Zeller and Noah Vonleh. The Celtics could give Lee a look if they can't hook a bigger fish.
For a one-year rental that almost certainly will come with a trade sweetener, Lee can be a really good investment for the right team.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com. Salary information obtained via Basketball Insiders.
