Brady Aiken: Prospect Profile for Indians' 1st-Round Pick

Player: Brady Aiken

Position: LHP

DOB: 8/16/1996 (Age: 18)

Height/Weight: 6'3", 210 lbs

Bats/Throws: L/L

School: IMG Academy (Florida)

Previously Drafted: 2014 (first round, HOU)

Background

Only three times in MLB history has the No. 1 overall pick failed to sign. The first was catcher Danny Goodwin in 1971, as he opted to attend Southern University. He would go on to be taken No. 1 overall again in 1975.

Then there was pitcher Tim Belcher, who spurned the Minnesota Twins in 1983 and wound up with the Oakland Athletics after being taken No. 1 overall in the 1984 January supplemental draft.

The third came last season when the Houston Astros failed to come to terms with Brady Aiken, and it has been a long, strange trip since he first heard his name called last June.

After the team originally proposed a $6.5 million signing bonus, a medical evaluation revealed an anatomical anomaly in Aiken's throwing arm, as he had an unusually small UCL that could lead to problems down the road.

That was enough for the Astros to withdraw their original offer, and he was instead offered substantially less, according to Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle:

"

The Astros made just one revised offer to Aiken after initially offering a reported $6.5 million. The new offer of $3,168,840 million – 40 percent of his slot value of $7,922,100 – is the minimum necessary offer so that the Astros would receive a compensation pick if Aiken does not sign.

"

Turns out that's exactly what happened.

Originally committed to UCLA, Aiken declined the Astros' offer and instead opted to pitch for the IMG Academy post-graduate team, which kept him draft-eligible for this year's draft.

From there, the Astros' concerns were immediately substantiated, as he made it just 12 pitches into his first start of the season before leaving with an arm injury that would eventually lead to season-ending Tommy John surgery.

So one year removed from being the No. 1 overall pick in the draft, Aiken has seen his draft stock drop significantly, but the potential that made him such a highly regarded prospect is still there. In his senior season at Cathedral Catholic High School, Aiken compiled a 1.06 ERA and 111-15 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 59.2 innings of work, sending him shooting up draft boards to his eventual No. 1 selection.

Pick Analysis

There is a reason Aiken was the No. 1 overall pick last year, as projectable left-handers with a mid-90s fastball, two plus off-speed offerings and a 6'4" frame don't come around every day.

Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com's Prospect Watch provided the following scouting report:

"

Aiken had no physical problems as a senior at San Diego's Cathedral Catholic High, showing advanced command of a fastball that sat at 92-94 mph and reached 97. He added more power and depth to his curveball and displayed one of the best changeups in the 2014 Draft, featuring deception and tumbling action. By leading Team USA to the gold medal at the 2013 18-and-under World Cup in Taiwan and thriving under all the scrutiny last spring, Aiken also earned points for his makeup.

"

The sky is the limit for a healthy Aiken, but his questionable health extends beyond how quickly and smoothly he recovers from Tommy John surgery, as the structural makeup of his arm as a whole is a concern.

That being said, his huge ceiling is still well worth taking a chance on.

MLB Player Comparison: James Paxton

Otto Greule Jr/Getty Images

Again, this is all assuming Aiken bounces back from Tommy John surgery and has no further health issues moving forward, but the Clayton Kershaw comparisons he garnered last June still apply. Like the reigning NL MVP, Aiken is a big left-hander with an advanced feel for all of his pitches, plus velocity and legitimate front-of-the-rotation tools.

That being said, perhaps a more realistic comparison might be James Paxton (6'4"), another big left-hander with a fastball that sits in the mid-90s and a solid curveball/changeup combination. The 26-year-old is still in the process of establishing himself at the big league level, but he has a chance to be a solid piece of the long-term puzzle for the Seattle Mariners.

Projection: No. 2/3 starter with ace potential

Major League ETA: 2018

Chances of Signing: 99 percent

After the runaround that was the past calendar year for Aiken, and considering his stock has already taken a significant hit with the Tommy John surgery, at this point, one has to think the southpaw will just be happy to get his pro career started.

All high school statistics for Aiken come courtesy of MaxPreps.