Top 5 NBA Teams with Most Free Agents This Summer
There's an NBA free-agency frenzy coming, and a select few franchises will be at the forefront of this summer's action.
With the start of free agency a month away, teams need to begin planning for all types of scenarios—whether they involve entrenched stars leaving, coveted role players bolting or re-signing core members to long-term deals.
But regardless of outcomes, these squads are going to have daunting decisions to make. The future of a franchise can change on one man's whim—as the Cleveland Cavaliers and Miami Heat learned last summer—and teams have to be on high alert at all times.
So by analyzing quantities of restricted and unrestricted free agents, we've identified a group of teams that have the most at stake as July 1 approaches.
In order to rank the chosen clubs, two key factors were examined: One, which teams are at risk of experiencing the most turnover in the personnel department? And two, how many decisions does a given team need to make?
Buckle up.
Honorable Mention: Houston Rockets
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Restricted FA: Patrick Beverley, K.J. McDaniels
Unrestricted FA: Corey Brewer, Josh Smith, Jason Terry
The Houston Rockets may have qualified for the Western Conference Finals, but that doesn't make them immune to potential turnover this summer.
Josh Smith—whom the Rockets snagged off waivers for peanuts last December—is slated to hit the open market. And while that sounds problematic on the surface, Houston has a strong appeal to make when free agency opens.
Since the Detroit Pistons waived Smith using the stretch provision, they will pay him $5.4 million annually through the 2018-19 season. And because Smoove has an alternate income stream flowing off Lake Michigan, he could feasibly take a pay cut to remain with the Rockets. Instead of becoming a pariah in Houston at an exorbitant salary, Smith became a reclamation project. He kicked his three-point conversion rate up to 33 percent and was afforded freedom as a ball-handler within the Rockets' wide-open scheme.
But even if Houston's able to convince Smith to stay at a reduced price, it will need to fork over cash to retain point guard Patrick Beverley.
The point guard is already attracting attention from a division rival with a knack for poaching Rockets restricted free agents, and ironically, Chandler Parsons is the man doing the recruiting.
"I hear from Chandler every day," Beverley said, according to the Houston Chronicle's Jonathan Feigen. "It’s hard, but I try not to think about it. I can’t talk about contracts. It’s going to be a fun summer. I have put myself in a position to be set for life and that’s something that I never thought was possible growing up."
While Corey Brewer should intrigue on the unrestricted market, the other compelling Rocket worth monitoring is K.J. McDaniels. After getting traded from the Philadelphia 76ers for Isaiah Canaan and a 2015 second-round pick at the deadline, McDaniels played just 33 minutes for the Rockets before fracturing his wrist.
So after marginalizing McDaniels' athleticism, it's time to see if the Rockets are willing to shell out and match any offers the 22-year-old. While he could have legitimately qualified for an All-Rookie team with Philadelphia, he dropped off the radar upon arriving in Houston.
McDaniels has undeniable talent, and the Rockets will have final say in all negotiations. If they're looking for a cost-effective wing of the future, he may be it.
5. Miami Heat
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Player Options: Dwyane Wade, Goran Dragic, Luol Deng
Team Options: Michael Beasley
For starters, here's a rundown of the 2015-16 player options listed above:
- Dwyane Wade: $16,125,000
- Luol Deng: $10,151,612
- Goran Dragic: $7,500,000
Dragic is a sure bet to opt out, but he's made it clear the Miami Heat will be his first choice if the team forks over sufficient cash.
"As long as I’m in a happy environment and a healthy organization, that’s the most important thing," Dragic said, according to the Palm Beach Post's Jason Lieser. "The next three, four, five years—I want to spend it on this kind of team, like the Miami Heat. They have great players, great coaching staff and great training staff."
Where there's more uncertainty is with Wade and Deng.
Deng has discussed the organization in glowing terms, per Lieser, but he's yet to make a firm declaration regarding his intentions for next season.
"On paper, it sounds great, but at the same time it’s all about chemistry and developing together as a unit and making each other better," Deng said.
Then we have Wade, who's suddenly in search of a hefty new commitment from the Heat after he sacrificed money to try to keep Miami's core together last summer.
"A Wade associate has told people that Wade would welcome a contract averaging $20 million annually over the next three years," the Miami Herald's Barry Jackson wrote. "If that's true, it would be understandable, considering the year 13-15 pay ranges for Duncan and Nowitzki. Wade's agent, Henry Thomas, politely declined to confirm that or anything regarding Wade's specific financial expectations."
That's a gaudy request, and considering there are only 10 players slated to earn over $20 million next season, per Spotrac.com, it's hard to envision the Heat signing off on such a deal for the 33-year-old.
Wade hasn't appeared in more than 70 regular-season games since LeBron James' first year with the Heat, and while he has tremendous value to the franchise from a legacy perspective, his health is too volatile these days to spend that kind of cash.
It's ultimately hard to envision Wade donning anything but a Heat jersey, though. And with Dragic singing the franchise's praises, there's a chance Miami returns all of its centerpieces.
4. Cleveland Cavaliers
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Restricted FA: Matthew Dellavedova, Tristan Thompson, Iman Shumpert
Unrestricted FA: James Jones, Kendrick Perkins
Player Options: LeBron James, Kevin Love, J.R. Smith, Mike Miller
Team Options: Timofey Mozgov
The names here are plentiful, but the Cleveland Cavaliers couldn't climb higher than No. 4 based on a perceived lack of potential departures.
While LeBron James can opt out of his deal, doing so wouldn't be a cause for concern.
"James is making $20.64 million this year, and has an option for 2015-16 worth $21.57 million, both max figures," Deadspin.com's Barry Petchesky wrote. "But if he declines his player option and signs another one-year deal (with an option for 2016-17), he can make roughly $23 million next season."
The same should hold true with James the following summer, when opting out would allow him to capitalize on an exploding salary cap.
As for Kevin Love, the sidelined stretch-4 said he expects to be suiting up for the Cavaliers when the 2015-16 season rolls around, according to ESPN.com's Dave McMenamin. Whether that means he opts out and re-signs or simply opts in remains to be seen, but Love's statement was pretty re-assuring for Cavs fans.
Timofey Mozgov should be a no-brainer, too, since Cleveland can bring him back at an affordable $4.9 million in the last year of his deal.
Sticking with the seemingly inevitable, Tristan Thompson should be back in Wine and Gold if the front office compensates the big "who should probably be a Cavalier his entire career," per James, via McMenamin. Doing so should require Cleveland to fork over more than $52 million over four years, which was the team's offer prior to his postseason explosion, according to Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski.
Which leads us to murkier waters.
Assuming that foursome returns, the team will need to decide if it wants to push the boundaries of the luxury tax by extending offers to restricted free agents Iman Shumpert and Matthew Dellavedova.
Both men have earned raises based on their postseason play, but with J.R. Smith exercising the ability to opt into $6.4 million next season and Kyrie Irving's extension (that will pay $15.8 million next season) ready to kick in, there doesn't seem to be a logistically sound way the Cavaliers can bring everyone back.
3. San Antonio Spurs
4 of 6Restricted FA: Kawhi Leonard, Aron Baynes, Cory Joseph
Unrestricted FA: Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili, Danny Green, Marco Belinelli, Jeff Ayres, Matt Bonner
According to Bleacher Report's Ric Bucher,"all indications are that the Spurs are planning" for Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili to be back next season "in some capacity."
Assuming that's the case, the attention shifts to two big names: Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green.
Leonard's case will be more high profile, but it should be relatively uneventful if everything goes according to plan.
Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski breaks it down:
"For now, there's no scenario where Leonard plans to pursue offer sheets on the market, league sources tell Yahoo Sports.
Leonard wants to be a Spur, and the Spurs are expected to come calling on July 1 with the max offer that they resisted delivering Leonard in the preseason, a move born out of preserving cap space to bring on a star free agent this summer.
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If Leonard returns as planned, things will start to get interesting with Green.
"One of the biggest potential storylines of the offseason is the Spurs' rumored interest in Marc Gasol and LaMarcus Aldridge, as noted by ESPN's Marc Stein," Bleacher Report's David Kenyon wrote. "If San Antonio can manage to grab either All-Star, the roster would remain in tremendous shape whenever Duncan eventually retires."
Should the Spurs successfully steal Marc Gasol from Memphis or LaMarcus Aldridge from Portland, they won't be flush with cash to throw at the sharpshooting Green.
They'd likely be forced to renounce the rights of those marginal contributors to net a big fish for the frontcourt in the first place, so tossing eight figures annually at a three-and-D weapon like Green wouldn't stand to help the team's long-term flexibility.
Some summer scenarios involve more moving and shaking than others, but regardless of which route the Spurs take, this summer should be fascinating from every angle.
2. Dallas Mavericks
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Restricted FA: Bernard James
Unrestricted FA: Rajon Rondo, Tyson Chandler, J.J. Barea, Richard Jefferson, Greg Smith, Amar'e Stoudemire, Charlie Villanueva
Player Options: Monta Ellis, Al-Farouq Aminu, Raymond Felton (already opted in)
At this very moment, the only locks to be under contract for the Dallas Mavericks next season are Dirk Nowitzki, Chandler Parsons, Devin Harris and Raymond Felton.
That means the door is open for a handful of unrestricted free agents to waltz into the summer and sign with new teams, which could result in serious personnel changes down in Big D.
Rajon Rondo is good as gone, according to ESPN.com's Marc Stein, and things could be complicated by Monta Ellis' impending decision:
"Word is he's not looking to leave Dallas, where he remade his reputation with last season's strong showing before this season's ups and downs, but Ellis also has the ability to opt out and become a free agent after playing for the (relative) bargain price of $8 million (and change) in each of the past two seasons.
Passing on the opportunity to test the market and see if he can land a more lucrative annual salary might be hard to resist. The Mavs themselves, according to our own Tim MacMahon, are working through their own conflicted feelings about Ellis' future with the club.
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The other primary piece here is Tyson Chandler, whose shot-blocking, rim-running capabilities could be replaced by a younger big with similar skills.
According to Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski, the Mavericks "are chief among several significant suitors," for Los Angeles Clippers center DeAndre Jordan, who should command max money. The kicker—and it's important one to consider—is the Clippers are the only team capable of offering a five-year max deal that approaches $109 million.
One way or another, change is coming.
1. Portland Trail Blazers
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Restricted FA: Joel Freeland
Unrestricted FA: LaMarcus Aldridge, Wesley Matthews, Robin Lopez, Dorell Wright, Alonzo Gee
Player Options: Arron Afflalo, Steve Blake
Welcome to Portland, the home of NBA offseason chaos.
At the forefront of the madness is LaMarcus Aldridge, who's shifted from a sure thing to return to total question mark.
"The line is long and growing amid the rising whispers in recent weeks that Aldridge is far more gettable than we've been led for months to believe," ESPN.com's Marc Stein wrote following Portland's first-round ouster.
Aldridge will be the biggest and most prominent domino to fall, but once his status is cleared up, the floodgates are going to open in the Northwest.
Robin Lopez and Wesley Matthews are also unrestricted free agents, and the latter's case will be particularly interesting to watch.
Matthews—who's recovering from a ruptured Achilles tendon—has solidified himself as a dead-eye shooter, having canned 374 threes over the past two seasons at a 39.1 percent clip. But Matthews can also post-up, and he scored in the 85th percentile with his back to the basket, according to Synergy Sports (via NBA.com). Also a plus-defender, Matthews blends every skill teams are looking for in a modern wing.
Even after suffering a brutal injury, he won't come cheap.
Those are three players who figure to earn eight figures annually, which means the Blazers will have some tough decisions to make. If Aldridge ditches Portland, the decisions become easier as significant cap space will open up.
But with Damian Lillard in line for a monstrous fourth-year extension that could reach $120 million over five years, per Stein, future flexibility will be capped to a degree.
On the Arron Afflalo front, Stein reports the shooting guard "intends to go ahead with plans to opt out this summer," which could be good news considering the Blazers will need all the open space they can get in order to wheel and deal.
All statistics courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com unless noted otherwise. All salary information retrieved from BasketballInsiders.com.
