Tobias Harris Would Complete Rapid Rebuild of Los Angeles Lakers Frontcourt
The Los Angeles Lakers need an upgrade at small forward, and luring restricted free agent Tobias Harris to Hollywood could be the perfect way to solidify what's soon to be one of the NBA's most promising young frontcourts.
After pegging Julius Randle as their power forward of the future with the seventh pick in last year's draft, the Lakers will have a chance to anoint either Duke center Jahlil Okafor or Kentucky big man Karl-Anthony Towns as the franchise's mainstay in the middle.
Assuming the team travels down one of those paths in the draft, the Purple and Gold will have a gaping hole at small forward. While Nick Young played 70 percent of his minutes at the 3 before suffering a small fracture in his left kneecap last season, he's better suited as a microwave scorer off the bench. And beyond Young, the Lakers don't have many other options on the wing. Wesley Johnson is about to become an unrestricted free agent, leaving Ryan Kelly as the de facto place-filler at small forward.
That's where Harris comes in.
The Lakers are entering this summer with a shade over $35 million in guarantees on their books. Now, that number can climb as high as $49.8 million should LA exercise Jordan Hill's $9 million team option and bring back players with smaller team options.
But either way, the team will have enough flexibility to add an impact player in free agency.
"Currently, the Lakers can afford to make some moves in free agency, but nothing major outside of signing one max player," LakersNation.com's Ryan Ward wrote.
The 22-year-old Harris—who just wrapped up his fourth pro season—fits the bill. That is, if the Orlando Magic aren't interested in retaining his services.
"There's a lot of things you have to look at in any type of free agency, but what I think what everybody's beginning to forget is that [I'll be] a restricted free agent," Harris said in April, according to the Orlando Sentinel's Josh Robbins. "So whatever happens, it's in the organization's hands to make a call."
Basketball Insiders' Steve Kyler explained the ins and outs of Harris' status as a restricted free agent:
"There have been a number of teams linked to Harris including the Los Angeles Lakers, New York Knicks, Philadelphia 76ers and even Atlanta Hawks. The Magic have the means to match anything offered to Harris in free agency. Given where the salary cap is headed, the Magic have to spend money and pretty soon they may have a hard time reaching the salary floor given where they are at in guaranteed money. The belief is that the Magic would match almost anything under $13 million a season, the question is will Harris get an offer sheet worth more than that number in July and will the Magic budge off their price range?
"
So one way or another, Harris is going to receive a serious raise.
Not only is he seasoned for a 22-year-old, but the swingman displayed tremendous growth as a scorer last year. During his second full season in Orlando, Harris averaged a career-high 17.1 points on 14 shots per game over the course of 68 appearances (63 starts).
But check this out: Harris also finished as one of six players to average at least 17 points, six rebounds and a steal. Those are admittedly arbitrary cutoff points, but it's still an impressive club to reside in considering the other five members were Anthony Davis, LeBron James, Russell Westbrook, DeMarcus Cousins and Carmelo Anthony.
What should have potential buyers like the Lakers salivating, though, is how much progress Harris made as a three-point shooter. After launching 2.1 threes per game during the 2013-14 season, he boosted that average tally to 3.5. And with a heavier volume came revelatory results.
At season's end, Harris had drilled 36.4 percent of his threes, which represented an 11 percent bump from the year prior. But the real eye-opener came when Harris stepped into analytically-friendly corners.
Literally.
Harris jacked 42.7 percent of his total threes from the corners and hit on a career-best 45.1 percent of them. For context, his second-best knockdown rate from those small surface areas came in 2011-12, when 33.3 percent of those looks fell through the net.
What that says is Harris can be a steady catch-and-shoot threat—one who would be able to play effectively off the more ball-dominant Kobe Bryant. Heck, Harris is just coming off a career year that saw him average the third-most shots on the Magic behind Nikola Vucevic and Victor Oladipo.
In that regard, touches shouldn't be problematic.
However, it's important to remember Harris is still 22 years old, and his game is years away from rounding into pristine form.
"The ball has a tendency to stick once it reaches Harris' hands, ultimately hurting any flow that the Magic's offense may have," Zach Oliver wrote over at the Orlando Pinstriped Post. "While he improved his percentages from both beyond the arc and the field as a whole, his shot selection from time-to-time is questionable."
| 2011-12 | 19 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.3 | 46.7% | 26.1% | 14.2 |
| 2012-13 | 20 | 11.0 | 5.2 | 0.6 | 45.5% | 31.5% | 16.0 |
| 2013-14 | 21 | 14.6 | 7.0 | 0.7 | 46.4% | 25.4% | 16.5 |
| 2014-15 | 22 | 17.1 | 6.3 | 1.0 | 46.6% | 36.4% | 16.7 |
But everything we've seen from Harris thus far, developmentally speaking, is encouraging. At 6'8" and 226 pounds with an improved three-point stroke, Harris can play both forward spots and not function as a liability.
As a matter of fact, Harris posted a higher player efficiency rating (19.1) at power forward than he did at small forward (16.0) last season, according to 82games.com.
The bigger question is if Harris can make similar strides on defense. During the 2014-15 slate, Orlando was 3.8 points worse per 100 defensive possessions with Harris on the floor. The 106.7 defensive rating they recorded during those 2,369 minutes would have equated to the league's fourth-worst overall.
That's a legitimate concern, to be sure, but it shouldn't prevent the Lakers from making a hard run at Harris. Not only does he offer LA a chance to compete during what's widely assumed to be Bryant's final season with the franchise, but at 22 years old, he can offer a sustainable solution on the wing for years to come.
Matched with Jordan Clarkson, Julius Randle and the big of Los Angeles' choosing, Harris could help propel the Lakers back into postseason contention after matching the longest playoff drought (two years) in franchise history.
Signing him may very well require an aggressive pursuit that prices the Magic out of contention, but these are the Lakers we're talking about. They're not passive about spending, particularly when it comes to the long-term betterment of the franchise.
If they get serious about signing Harris, the franchise could have its frontcourt of the future penciled in—with two of those players under team control on rookie deals and salary-cap swelling on the horizon.
With opportunity for immediate improvement and the promise of future growth, the Lakers—for the first time in years—have a chance to make meaningful splashes throughout the summer.
Now it's time to see if they can seize the opportunity.
All statistics are courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com unless noted otherwise. All salary information retrieved from Basketball Insiders.
Alec Nathan covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @AlecBNathan.
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