Why It's Finally Time for San Antonio Spurs to Remake Roster
The San Antonio Spurs aren't ones to make changes hastily.
Last season, 11 players remained from the team that fell so unceremoniously to the Miami Heat in the 2013 NBA Finals; even defeat on the grandest of stages didn't send general manager R.C. Buford into crisis mode. And the odds are that this season's opening-round loss to the Los Angeles Clippers won't either.
But there's a case to be made that now's the time for at least some change.
A few adjustments may be inevitable. Buford and Co. won't have complete control over this remodeling, which will perhaps force the most stable franchise in professional sports to do things a little differently this time around.
Nine of the team's players are free agents, and two of those free agents—Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili—are ostensibly contemplating retirement at ages 39 and 37 (respectively). Even Buford may be unable to maintain the status quo under those circumstances.
| Player | 2015-16 Status / Salary | 2014-15 Salary |
| Tony Parker | $13,437,500 | $12,500,000 |
| Tim Duncan | Unrestricted FA | $10,361,446 |
| Tiago Splitter | $8,500,000 | $9,250,000 |
| Boris Diaw | $7,500,000 | $8,000,000 |
| Manu Ginobili | Unrestricted FA | $7,000,000 |
| Danny Green | Unrestricted FA | $4,025,000 |
| Patty Mills | $3,578,947 | $3,842,105 |
| Kawhi Leonard | $4,433,683 Qualifying Offer | $2,894,059 |
| Marco Belinelli | Unrestricted FA | $2,873,750 |
| Aron Baynes | $2,596,250 Qualifying Offer | $2,077,000 |
| Cory Joseph | $3,034,892 Qualifying Offer | $2,023,261 |
| Jeff Ayres | Unrestricted FA | $1,828,750 |
| Kyle Anderson | $1,142,879 | $1,093,680 |
| Matt Bonner | Unrestricted FA | $915,243 |
| Reggie Williams | Non-Guaranteed $1,185,784 | $344,036 |
To hear Popovich explain it to reporters at season's end, this summer's rosters maneuvers may be more significant than usual:
"We've got a pretty good number of free agents, so with R.C. and the coaches and the group we've talked about what we want to do going forward with the makeup of the team, but the team will probably look considerably different than it looks this year because we have so many free agents, and we want to re-tool a little bit.
We want to try to start—not exactly over again—but these last four seasons have been a grind, and we put the team together with that in mind, that this year we'd have all the free agents so we can decide what we want to do moving forward as far as the makeup of the team. So we'll spend a lot of time on that, but as far as if guys are retiring or not, we haven't touched that.
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The changes probably won't be wholesale. This franchise cares way too much about corporate knowledge to do anything too crazy. But you know something's up when Popovich himself raises the prospect of a little reshuffling.
And given the roster's current condition, that reshuffling may finally be in order.
The Potential Retirees
By the looks of it, Duncan could very well play another two or three years. As hard as it to imagine him carrying on well into his 40s, another season isn't out of the question by any means.
Ginobili's fate seems less certain, if only because his contributions have been increasingly inconsistent over the last three seasons. The 37-year-old's contemplative comments to reporters at season's end didn't inspire much confidence in a return:
"I still don't know what I want to do and I don't want to make decisions right after the disappointment (of) a game like this (Game 7 of the first round). Some days you feel proud and you think you did great. Other games you think, 'What the hell am I doing here? I might as well stay home and enjoy my kids.' It's a tough moment. You just have to sit, wait, let it all go and make a decision.
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Duncan remains in All-Star form, and—to whatever extent one can read his particularly hidden psyche—it appears he still loves the game. No one competed more consistently for this team throughout the season, right up to the end.
| Season | Games | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | Blk |
| 2012-13 | 69 | 30.1 | 17.8 | 9.9 | 2.7 | 2.7 |
| 2013-14 | 74 | 29.2 | 15.1 | 9.7 | 3.0 | 1.9 |
| 2014-15 | 77 | 28.9 | 13.9 | 9.1 | 3.0 | 2.0 |
Regardless of whether one or both return, now is a pretty good time to find some replacements. And it's doubtful that said replacements are already wearing Silver and Black.
Duplicating Duncan's entire skill set and franchise-defining persona isn't possible. Should rumors from ESPN.com's Marc Stein linking the organization to free-agent big man LaMarcus Aldridge materialize into a blockbuster acquisition, San Antonio could at least count on another generation of All-Star interior play. Memphis Grizzlies center Marc Gasol is also a free agent and made some headlines with his admitted admiration for the Spurs.
San Antonio would do well to land either Aldridge or Gasol, assuring star swingman Kawhi Leonard has a capable cohort on the inside. Neither would even begin to replicate Duncan's legacy in San Antonio, but that's asking for the unthinkable anyway.
Replacing Ginobili is more doable in theory, but not automatic.
Under contract for two more seasons, Patty Mills could be part of the solution. His ability to score in quick bursts off the bench gives him some sixth-man credibility. Should the organization re-sign unrestricted free agent Marco Belinelli, it would also have a second-unit swingman at the ready.
But Ginobili is a unique talent, thanks in large part to his creative playmaking ability. Valued primarily for their shooting, neither Mills nor Belinelli would sufficiently produce on the assist front. Cory Joseph could conceivably adopt a more prominent role, but he's set to become a free agent who may well find more lucrative offers elsewhere.
And it's unlikely the organization would engage in a pricey pursuit of someone like restricted free agent Reggie Jackson—not with big men like Aldridge and Gasol taking priority on the shopping list.
The bench will boast impressive depth one way or another, but it won't be nearly the same if the iconic Argentinian calls it quits.
The Other Free Agents
Leonard ranks first among this summer's priorities. Regardless of Duncan and Ginobili's decisions, the franchise should be built around the reigning Defensive Player of the Year for the foreseeable future. Neither side has even hinted at a possible end to what has thus far been a highly successful arrangement.
As CBS Sports' Ken Berger put it:
"The free-agent plan for the Spurs is to quickly agree on a five-year max deal with Leonard—'It will be a short conversation,' one person with knowledge of the dynamics said—and empower Leonard to join Duncan in an all-out recruitment of All-Star free agent LaMarcus Aldridge, league sources told CBSSports.com.
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So forget about any drama associated with Leonard. The more interesting challenge may be keeping shooting guard Danny Green in the fold. His smooth stroke and penchant for big-game success should make him a hot commodity around the league, and because he's an unrestricted free agent, the Spurs aren't guaranteed any right to match the offers of other suitors.
Green has thus far said all the right things, but this will invariably come down to getting the money right. That could be complicated by San Antonio's other pursuits, especially if Aldridge or Gasol becomes a realistic target.
Just how important is Green to San Antonio's formula? Put simply, he's one of the league's very best "three-and-D" specialists, and he excels at both the three and the D. San Antonio Express-News scribe Dan McCarney put the 27-year-old's value in context last month:
"For all the wild peaks and valleys in Green’s accuracy, he’s proven to be remarkably consistent over the long haul, joining Klay Thompson and Kyle Korver as the only players to make at least 100 3s at 40 percent or better in each of the past four seasons. Over that same span, Green is also tied with Memphis’ Tony 'First Team All-Defense' Allen—a career 27.1-percent shooter on 3s—for the league lead among shooting guards with a total of 11.9 defensive win shares.
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That kind of perimeter presence should be worth good money to San Antonio, perhaps $7 or 8 million annually. The organization owns Green's Bird rights but could theoretically be forced to renounce him in order to clear cap room for other free-agent talent. Assuming the numbers work, however, Green may be one of the few free agents to remain in town.
Belinelli, Aron Baynes and Cory Joseph could all return as well, but it's more likely that one or more will find better money elsewhere. The Spurs may want to maintain some financial flexibility as the salary cap balloons in coming seasons, so this summer's spending might not be extravagant.
That could pave the way to an exit for some role players and in turn create opportunities for younger, less expensive talent like 2014 draftee Kyle Anderson.
The Under-Contract Talent
Anderson is one of the few Spurs under contract for next season. It may, however, be premature to assume that each of those players will remain with the organization.
It's a fairly safe bet that point guard Tony Parker will stick around. He's become virtually synonymous with the franchise's success, and trades of that magnitude are rare in these parts. A more realistic trade chip would be center Tiago Splitter.
That's how ESPN.com's Marc Stein sees it:
"One scenario on the personnel grapevine gaining steam is the notion that the Spurs could elect to explore the possibility of dealing away Tiago Splitter to create more financial flexibility. Splitter has two years left on his contract valued at just under $17 million and is quietly regarded as a key contributor in San Antonio given how well he fits as a frontcourt sidekick next to Duncan. But if you're the Spurs—and if the increasingly loud rumbles about Aldridge having San Antonio as the preferred destination atop his wish list prove true—examining Splitter's trade market might suddenly become unavoidable.
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Including Splitter in a sign-and-trade deal for Aldridge is one possibility, particularly if the Portland Trail Blazers are prepared to concede Aldridge's inevitable departure. Otherwise, Splitter could be used to acquire another key bench contributor—perhaps a sixth-man type to usher in the post-Ginobili era.
| Games | Min | Pts | FG% | Reb | Blk | |
| T. Splitter | 52 | 19.8 | 8.2 | .558 | 4.8 | 0.7 |
| L. Aldridge | 71 | 35.4 | 23.4 | .466 | 10.2 | 1.0 |
| M. Gasol | 81 | 33.2 | 17.4 | .494 | 7.8 | 1.6 |
San Antonio is far less likely to trade either Mills or Boris Diaw, both under contract for at least another season. They have arguably been the team's most consistent second-unit contributors over the last two seasons, and both were instrumental during the 2014 title run.
Realistically, one could imagine Duncan and Leonard quickly joining the roster when July rolls around, perhaps with Aldridge or Gasol. Hopefully, Green will follow suit.
But there will be some changes, too—with or without the addition of a marquee big man. Don't be surprised if some of that talent comes via the draft—perhaps even past drafts. As always, the organization has several keepers (e.g. Davis Bertans or Livio Jean-Charles) stashed overseas and awaiting their NBA debuts.
And if we know one thing about Buford and his scouts, it's that they almost certainly know more than the rest of us—especially when it comes to doing what's right for this rotation. Somewhere on the free-agent fringes of NBA relevance, there may well be another Danny Green type waiting for the right fit.
Thanks to those kind of finds, the Spurs have successfully dealt with change before. This summer, they'll very likely do so again.
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